Nailed It: But Now What?

by

Did I make money on the market break yesterday which we’ve been yammering about for more than a month? 
Yes.  3.6% for the  day, thanks for asking.

OK, gimme the name of even ONE other website that was telling you – free – from mid-February that we should have a steep decline March 22 – and it could really get to rolling from there. 

Short list?  No list?

(Continues below)

As I told you Thursday “Here’s the deal:  We drop more than 300 today and only Peoplenomics readers get tomorrow’s column.  Howzat? “

Since we dropped more than twice that, today’s further look ahead is for those who – by subscribing – have allowed us the luxury of being able to focus on the research that has, at times, led to some remarkable calls. Like the one for Thursday’s break.

If you want to subscribe, click here and welcome aboard, At $40/year it’s an order of magnitude cheaper than it should be. 
Otherwise, the free content will be back Monday…and see you then.

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44 thoughts on “Nailed It: But Now What?”

  1. Ahhahahaahhaha! Okay okay. I will sign up this weekend as long as the check clears my account. ;)

  2. So George, I take it that 2018 is now showing a definite trend to this being a replay of 1929 (vs. 1928)? In other words, looking at the head and shoulder pattern, we are on the ‘right shoulder’.

  4. I have a good friend that has been successfully trading the markets for over 35 years. He makes a regular 6 digit salary doing it. He told me to stay out of the market until May. He thinks by then, the market will have corrected and getting back into the market in May 2018, will allow for nice gains going forward { this advice he gave me, was concerning my 401k account , so I have had my 401k money sitting on the sidelines for a few months, in a money market account earning 1% interest, and then in May , I will put it back into stocks} . Do you agree with this opinion ?

    • Dave, as much as I would like to give your a direct answer, I can not engage in any “personalized” observations that might be construed – by regulators as offering investment advice. I can write about the markets all day long – in general terms – but I can not do anything which would be one-on-one if that makes sense.
      I am very clear in my outlooks on the Peoplenomics side, but that is general economics, commentary and all that protected free speech stuff. If I cross the regulatory line – which I won’t – it could become problematic. Sorry… A Peoplenomics subscription would reveal my outlook which you could compare with anyone elses…just sayin’

      • Understood..I was just wondering if your opinion agreed with my trader friend that MAY 2018 should be a good time to re-enter the market after a significant correction that is coming our way in the next 4-6 weeks. I certainly wasn’t asking you for your personal advice and I apologize if I came across that way.

    • Dave, George put 25 large down on his assement of the data for March 22. Correct me if I’m wrong, but that calculates to a $90k return at 3.6. Which is in my honest opinion. AWESOME. A little less than my annual salary.

      • Nowhere near that much, sorry to say. Won’t say how much, but way, way less…think 3.6 PERCENT not TIMES… (your lips to God’s ears Andy, lol)

      • $25,000 in 3 years will get you two and a half billion bucks if you invest in cryptocurrencies.

      • So what that means is inflation is going to be so high you won’t be able to Ford one tomato seed unless you’re growing up there yourself

      • Everyone will be rich but who’s going to do the work I guess we’ll have to leave it up to the AI robots

      • Haha. Oh yeah. :) well, we shall see.

        Had an hour to burn yesterday so i stopped by the casino and walked out with $575 started out with $60. Important thing is I walked out while ahead. I have made the mistake before of over staying my welcome and walked out with nothing.

        Gave the ex $200 for one of my kids and signed back up at a gym. Which I’m getting ready to get out the door and head to now.

        Have a great day!

  7. Friend who manages the maintenance at two large apt complexes, was told by their appliance dealer, to expect to pay 35% higher prices for new appliances because of new tarrifs on Chinese goods.

    • Any excuse to jack the consumer around. The amount of steel in a 100 pound machine is maybe 10 bucks more or $30 at retail.
      People who don’t know economics do know how the astroglide works

      • You know it’s rigged becasue The Leader tossed tariffs on raw materials.

        Manufactures using U.S. steel will meet the new general price level. (Who wouldn’t)

        Instead, tariffs should be placed on finished goods. Consumers should pay the tariffs right at the register.

        Walmart offers towels made in the U.S. What’s wrong with adding a 25% tariff to foreign made towels at checkout?

        “Oh, want to buy a Buick Envision – those are imported from China, add 25% Tariff Tax.” So instead of the car being 34K (Base) now it’s 42.5K.

    • NOT TO WORRY.. its economics..tariffs they’ll bitch and moan and raise prices.. but.. the truth of the matter is our money doesn’t support our communities.. it supports the communities in the countries that we support with our purchases. they will raise prices for a bit.just as a show of contempt. in reality once it starts to affect their bottom line and the community that we are supporting they will figure out a way to make a happy medium of sink themselves. a ceo doesn’t make bonuses unless they are pulling a profit..
      http://money.cnn.com/2018/01/30/news/economy/jinko-solar-us-china-trump/index.html
      I think you will see more like this.. do the steel work here but ship in components. put some of our people back to work yet keep their people working.
      up till now it hasn’t been that way.. since we decided to ship american workers jobs away.

      • Grain.. was it this last year or the year before that was the first year that the earth wasn’t able to grow enough grain to support the population of our planet.. sure china and other countries will go to other area’s to purchase but in reality….. we live in the grain belt of the planet.. like the middle east and oil.. you can’t eat oil.. can’t eat gold.. silver.. our grain sure they might hold out for a year.. but unless they can figure out a way to increase yields… now. it might be a reason for a war of sorts..I
        notice all the breaking violence.. now in my opinion that is a future point of concern..

  9. George,

    Minor point of confusion on my part. On the 3rd brain amp chart, you have negative numbers for waves 3 & 5, you are indicating direction of the move yes? It wasn’t entirely consistent with the prior 2 charts.

    Thanks, Marlowe7

    • LOL Marlowe…yes, since the Dow can’t “go negative” – that’s the “end of the financial world – anytime those models go into the minus territory…

      • Given the state of finances globally, I will say Case 2 looks like “dogs & cats living together”, case 3 hardly seems nessecary.

  10. George, in 2008 you helped me make about 5% while everyone else lost 40%-50%. Yesterday you saved me an order of magnitude more than the yearly price of admission to Peoplenomics. It’s an investment in my financial education :)
    Thank you so very much for then, now and every day in between.

  11. congrats & good call on the 3% drop, 3/22/2018.

    Ell Wave nailed it too, although the video is not a simple 55 day count like yours:

    http://www.elliottwave.com/

    However, when compared to the 7% through 22% historical (daily) drops (according to Wikipedia), it hasn’t made wiki’s list. Keep in mind that 10/28/1929 through 11/06/1929 became a 34% total drop, so the WORST is still yet to come (IMHO)

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_daily_changes_in_the_Dow_Jones_Industrial_Average

    • I think it’s finally begun.
      Our income comes from a very large national chain.
      They found out last night that the company is delinquent on the monthly bills. All the employees at the facilities in one whole state have not been paid in a month and the facilities are facing closure. On top of that the administrative staff at the facility she’s working at have not been paid in weeks.
      So as the old saying goes.. when you see the rats abandon ship you had better follow.
      Now if… that is any indicator of what’s happening in the industry she’s in (healthcare) it won’t be long before it flows over.. domino affect.

      • The wife is really worried and scared.. I tell her not to fret to much. The company just won’t duct tape all the doors. If each facility makes roughly twenty million income a year the upper managements income will easily be in the six figure up positions. Having to follow state laws to stay in business will require they keep on staff to man the buildings in order to keep their own incomes stable if at all possible. So unless they are leaping from rooftops there is still some sense of security at least for now. The really scary thing for me is that she’s in the age bracket that employers avoid. The fifty to sixty five bracket the last time around job placement companies would inform us that the odds were slim to none at that age. And because we own things like a car etc. and don’t have children the give away programs are unavailable.

  13. This tariff crap is nothing more than a tax and call,it what you may it’s the old bait and switch. My view only told you better buy now or pay more later. It’s going. To get ugly

  15. Geo I have been waiting for the 22nd for several years. It will be rough but should help solve a lot of our social problems. Perk up, your writing seemed a bit downish this morning. Doubt if many of your current readership will live to see the tail end of this downturn.

    • That’s depressing. How old do you think we are? Or is some cataclysmic event going to destroy most of us peon’s?

      • I’d guess homo sap. is between 380k and 3mln years old. I would also guess we’ve been nearly-eradicated a number of times, and don’t completely discount the possibility that one or more of those near ELEs were Man-caused.

        It is not difficult to find references to the Middle East being a glass parking lot, once one digs away 102,000-106,000 years worth of dirt and dust.

        Search “ancient nuclear war” and tell us what you find…

        “The architect of the modern atomic bomb who was in charge of the Manhattan project was asked by a student after the Manhattan explosion, “How do you feel after having exploded the first atomic bomb on earth”. Oppenheimer’s reply for the question was, “not first atomic bomb, but first atomic bomb in modern times”. He strongly believed that nukes were used in ancient India. what made oppenheimer believe that it was a nuclear war was the accurate descriptions of the weapons used in the Mahabharatha war in the epic which match with that of modern nuclear weapons.”

        Etc., etc…

      • Its possible, as far as the nuke story you presented. It would be arrogant to think our current state of modernistic technology is the first time its been attained, before they blew it all up like the path we’re on now, and started all over.

        If evolution was the way mankind in its present state came about (not your belief)and considering that we were all apes with a common ancestry in Africa, before our present human status, do you think that the condition that causes some black people to lose their pigment, could have been how the white race started? Also, how did the Asian race get started? There’s 3 distinct racial groups Im aware of, Negroid, Caucasian and Asian. Also, in your opinion, what race do dark complected Indian and Pakistani people call themselves? They have caucasian features, but dark skin. Just curious.

      • Please don’t assume…

        I AM in agreement with Darwin’s theory of evolution. Species evolve. I simply differ from the common bastardization of his theory in that I believe “Man” evolved from “Man,” not from some generic primate.

        We are not different races, we are different ethnicities of one race. Negroid pigment is caused by “tannin,” Caucasoid by “melanin,” Mongoloid by “keratin.” Australoids seem to show traces of all three. Central and near-Southeast Asians are principally Australoid…

        FWIW American Indians (both North and South) are principally Mongoloid, but with an Australoid genetic influence. This applies (as best as anthropologists have been able to determine) to modern Indians, ancients like the Maya, and to those who came before. Bear in mind, anthropology is an inexact science, and everything any of them write is both subject to dissent, and to change at any time…

  16. I getting a bit long in the tooth cant remember if you have written on ure best guesstimate of the duration of this down turn . I think its going to be longer than the Great Depression of the 30s. Say 15 to 25 years. If you have already written on it please let us know and any up dates will be appreciated. Thanks

    • Good topic – but forever is a fair guess.

      You see, when finance blow up, nukes go off, web comes down, food fails, famine arrisves, warlords emerge as the new local government – that’s why previous passes at high civilizations on the rock have failed. We might make it through ice ages by tribing, but that doesn’t built xenon class chipsets and without big chips, no net. No net? No global financial…oh it’s just too ugly to write about here.,
      Beer and a round of golf maybe?

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