Mini-Crash Monday?

by

After Joe Biden’s well-delivered but wholly insufficient speech last night, the markets are poised to drop early today, and should there be a rally into the close, we might be among those buying short positions.

We will get into the whys and wherefores in a minute.  But let’s deal with some facts.

  • There are two wars ongoing of major consequence and a third looms in Asia.
  • The U.S. response has been financial and military – all fine and good – but the fundamentals have not been addressed.  Russian speakers in territory of Ukraine, Palestinians without food and water, and the matter of reunification in China.  Nothing has been fixed.
  • There are multiple methods that hint at financial stress next week of substantial proportion:
    • Gaza conditions are the same as before Biden traveled and spoke.
    • Russia continues to prosecute its war to (re) claim territory.
    • China’s in the wings off Taiwan.
    • …any of this could TILT this weekend.
  • G.A. Stewarts work on Nostradamus, The Economic Fractalist, and our own meta data charts all suggest things will not improve any time soon. The week ahead is rocky, at best.

And our chart techniques in particular are waving red flags.

There’s an old saying in stock trading that “You never crash from the top.”  I laugh when pundits do that – with any market awareness you can spot BS’ers.

Our layperson concern today is that we are at the bottom of a long-term trend channel rally (from a year ago to the July high).  If wqe bust hard lower here?  Life in 2024 is going to plain suck for a whole lot of people. That’s how the market is “voting Future” right now.

A Run Through

Markets are driven by psychology, to some degree.  A lot to be studied and learned from “herd behaviors.”  The way human minds work, more recent events have a slightly stronger impact on us that something from, oh, say two weeks ago.

That’s one reason we look at markets and consider “differential moving averages.”  In this view, we look at how this “Yesterday versus a couple of weeks back” works out as a market directional indicator to be considered.  Note, we don’t offer trading or financial advice.  As I have admitted in the past, our personal returns are in the low 30 percent per year range. We only trade a couple of times a week. It’s just not that useful to put a lot of focus on “making zeros” when the larger issue is ensuring forward survival.

Using the early 5 AM futures pricing, however, you can see how the market sentiment (far right of this chart) is in position to “take a major dump” next week.

When I developed this “differential moving average” concept it was a simple personal trading tool.  When the red line was above the blue line, I would be in cash or short positions.  When above, a bullish/long position (or cash) was OK.  There were plenty of mistakes made (costing me literally thousands of dollars. But my personal gambling (what I do is not investing!) rules say things like “Blue under red, be short or be dead.”

Gambling?  Yeah, I should explain that.

The Time Base of Investing

See, there’s a simple enough way to get rich (or at least pretty damn sufficient).  It arises from understanding the time base (or timescale) of what you’re trying to do.

A lot of “investors” (who are really unacknowledged gamblers) try to “pick the next Microsoft or Apple.”  So far this year, we have seen more than 130 initial public offerings which is actually down more than 20 percent from a like period in 2022.

Their style of gambling (we hold it’s not “investing” any more than a trip to Las Vegas is!) would make one to five bets and believe they have a good chance of “striking it rich” that way.

And it’s true, they might.

When I looked at things, however, it occurred to me that it’s far easier to pick a high beta stock (lots of price movement) or an exchange-traded fund (ETF) and make money on the trading noise, as much as the underlying “goodness of the company.”  Frankly, I could give a rip it all spends the same.

So, instead of “investing” and trying to find the “magic bullet” single stock, I reasoned that I might be able to make one-half of one percent per week via “noise trading” which exists in all markets.

One half of one percent is shit for returns, no doubt.  At least in week one. By the end of week 2, it’s now 1 percent.  OK, still not great, but compare it to Big National Bank passbook savings…

After the first quarter of this delusional approach, it begins to look less crazy.  You’re up 6.69 percent in one quarter of a year. Not bad, huh?  At six months it’s up 13.84 percent and things are compounding nicely now.

A year into such a regimen?  Theory says it ought to have grown your “nut” 29.6 percent.

In actuality from the end of October 2022 to present, my account balance is up more than that. Because there’s another level to the mystery (because this is gambling, not “investing”) and that’s money management.  Which is why I think of myself as the Parimutuel Investor.

Streaming quotes is nothing more than the off-track version of the totalizator board (tote board).  We will share more details in next week’s Peoplenomics.com report.  It’s $40 bucks a year.

Look, I am NOT encouraging you to turn away from managed accounts and long-term strategic decisions.  Some of our investments here?  If you’d been reding UrbanSurvival in 2004 you’d know we entered silver at $6.94 and $7.03 an ounce. This morning, it was $23.40. That position has been good for 19-years.

That’s just a stupid inflation hedge…government is addicted to printing up fake money, so run off off a few while you’re at it…

It’s just like having a paid-for home – which is like having a free place to live for the rest of your life.  Not a hard decision to make.

But it’s like that in Life.  You just need to “know your time base.”

Markets at Rhyme Time

I’m giving away too much, I suppose.  I’m a theory guy, not an advisor.  I’m a writer and researcher.

Still, there are useful techniques that can – from time-to-time – give insight into what comes next. Two such techniques are Elliott Waves (Bob Prechter’s work excellent – any of his books are worth reading).  And then there’s the Regression Channel work.

When combined with an Aggregate (meta, or multiple markets) view, of lot of “noise trading ideas” become visible.  To wit:

Our view has been that a (likely) top of Wave 2 (yellow scale) occurred July 31 of this year.

On the right side of the chart, notice that we have dropped under the long-term trendline of the ascending large 2.

What we have seen many times is that the market will break below a key trend line, rally to “kiss the trend” and then fall on its face.

Which is why we are concerned about a “mini crash” early next week.

Searching Through Noise

I’ve been an extra class ham radio operator for decades.  Love the art of weak-signal Morse code (on the bottom of the 20-meter band, thanks for asking).  When you get to a level of code proficiency, you stop “copying letters” and instead “hear whole words” at speeds above 25-30 words per minute.  The onboard brain is good for 35-40, but I can’t write much faster than 20 by hand, and even then, it looks like doctor-scribbles.

Point is that technical analysis is like this.  When you start off your visual cortex will be “seeing the letters” and not modeling (testing plugins) of various wave counts.  It takes work.

But what really helps is to read the daily news and play some “logical exercises” that might drive charts firmly – one way or the other.

There is a chance of a strong bounce next week. The large yellow scale Wave 2 could have one more wave up which might be the larger Wave 2 (5) meaning this decline since the end of July is a 2 (4).  But you see, it’s a risk-taking decision.

The only reason after doing a long-time as a professional news reporter I’ve found any ongoing interest in “the news” of the day is that the people who own stocks (and something like 54 percent of Americans have some exposure directly or through retirement funds) is to consider the “scales of finance”.

The idea here is that every story is like a small weight that goes on a delicately balanced scale.  This in turn impacts mood in the casino (Wall St.).  Let’s get through this morning’s list, shall we?

News for the Scale

Definitely a negative seen in US issues worldwide caution alert to Americans abroad | Semafor

A positive in Biden speech reviews: Fox News’ Brit Hume Lavishes Biden Speech With Praise (mediaite.com)

(I was going to score the Biden speech in detail, but when he didn’t address the underlying energy problem, I just threw my hands up and have pretty much given up on D.C. There was a positive short-term in US lifts trade sanctions on Venezuela in return for reforms. But like everything else in D.C. it’s a short-term answer to a long-term problem.

The bright play 3D chess; the minimum for office should be 2D chess. While the present cast is playing tiddlywinks while focused on the latest one to fall on the floor!)

Positive to mixed seen in EU-US summit to stress unity amid Israel-Hamas and Russia-Ukraine wars.

Negative to mixed in Biden trying to pivot Hamas Playbook: Biden tries to make it a foreign policy election – POLITICO

And everyone has their own scale going. Including president Xi of China: China building nuclear weapons faster than prior U.S. projections (nbcnews.com).

At the high level (biggest weights) it’s a mixed bag.  But project a president now who has been under amazing stress, not to mention travel, and wild cards all over the Middle East and chart which have an ominous look to them… well, extreme caution seems like a reasonable headline.

Lighter Weights to Scale

Look at some of the “small weights” for investors, though most of these have little potential to move markets far off track:

Adventures in the Orange Aftermath roll on: Jury Selection Begins in Georgia Election Case (politicalwire.com)

Dysfunctional republicans (who might as well have declared war on themselves as a party) still can’t group their poop: Rep. Jim Jordan will try again for House gavel, but Republicans won’t back the hardline Trump ally | San Luis Obispo Tribune.

We again have to congratulate Elon Musk for, in effect, charging the policy-jacking social bots for manipulating the public agenda: Elon Musk: X, formerly Twitter, to launch two new subscription tiers (cnbc.com). There’s so little about the genius of this (at cleaning up social) it’s amazing.  Ever wonder how many FB accounts would just Poof! out if they charged $10 a month?  Money can be used as a social disinfectant, it seems.

Bitcoin will likely roll on up above $30,000.  In part because of SEC action in the Ripple case (XRP price gains 7.6% as SEC dismisses lawsuit against Ripple (crypto.news)) and partly because with high war risks about, digital money away from government’s prying eyes….

ATR: Cementitious Weekend

(Around the ranch, if you’re a newbie).

Our new patio/woodstove is coming along nicely.  More in ShopTalk Sunday. A column we love writing because we have this “hands on” approach to life.  We just can’t do it in a small box. Not to diss box-dwellers….

I think about that square-footage thing sometimes; How Elaine and I got married on a 40-foot sailboat which had 120 square feet of inside space.  And now we live on 1.25 million square feet, I think a lot of it has to do with “how you range.”  Some people are just born with a very small “tumbleweed gene.”  They are wide-ranging adventurers.

The boat square footage was tiny compared to the ranch, but the ocean is HUGE.  If you’ve never been offshore, let me assure you that the ocean gets bigger the farther out of sight of land you get…

Hard knowing how a person like to range.  I used to ask in job interviews “Do you prefer an automatic transmission or a stick?” Hands-on people prefer the stick (a new Z06 around it would be nice…). Or they’re agnostic.  Automatic transmissions can mean a person who doesn’t need to be as involved in the details. Gosh, I could write a whole column on that…

Way more detail on the market and long wave economics of all this over on the Peoplenomics side of things in the morning.

Chicago Fed numbers Monday and little but a Purchasing Manager’s report mid-morning Tuesday in the week ahead.  If Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran can all just take a chill pill so we can ignore the wires for a while, the cementitious board can go up as a heatshield on the fence, the gutters will be cleaned, and we can practice drinking hot Apple Jack by Sunday quitting time.

Write when you get rich,

George@Ure.net

73 thoughts on “Mini-Crash Monday?”

  1. Taiwan could go back peacefully if Xi tosses the ‘kill you all like a Palestinian’ card on the board. Most people like to live. Turkey going rogue is the wild card and would be hard to calculate.

    Bitcoin/cashless CBDC. We hear a lot, “What happens when the power is out?” Xfinity is deploying an indirect work-around solution.

    “Xfinity Storm-Ready WiFi provides unlimited cellular data backup in the event of a connectivity outage, plus a Battery Backup to keep Storm-Ready WiFi connected when the power is out.”

    Right now, ‘Fully charged Xfinity Battery Backup will provide up to 4 hours of power” but that will change. Standards will be developed and batteries will keep the cashless society network up.

    TM has the new solid state batteries on the way and everybody is going to want one.

    “Toyota has struck a deal with fellow Japanese company Idemitsu Kosan to mass produce ultra-high-range EVs with solid-state batteries.

    It’s the first major update on the company’s plans to be the first to offer these next-gen batteries. Toyota says the new technology will eventually enable EVs to go 932 miles on a single charge and power up in just 10 minutes, due to the higher energy density.”

    • OOS, [back in the day] I reported to a genetleman that had the priveledge of flying the first protoype of the 50X CDR/RW in a plywood box hand carried to Sony HQ in Japan. When the marketing team chimed in, the very first CD ROM drive on planet Earth released for commercial use was a 1X speed CDR read only, no write capability.

      Let hope the folks at Toyota dont wait until 2050 to release a 900 mile range EV.

      Im a nod to you Mr Ure. Everything is a business model even if you have to create same through marginalization of a great product or service offering. Sad.

      • You can not get more kinetic energy out of a storage device than the device can potentially store.

        You can not do more work than the total [amount] of available kinetic energy is capable of providing.

        I can build a battery that’ll propel a Tesla from Bangor to San Diego. It will fill a 4×8 trailer and weigh 10 tons. It will take a week to charge, because it will take 150 hours to move enough kinetic energy into the battery pile, that the pile reaches reasonably close to a 100% potential.

        The bottleneck becomes the grid connection. It would take many kA being pushed by many kV to “fill the tank” and most people are probably not going to go for handling six inch diameter cables, nor will their neighbors appreciate them when they brown out their town for 10 minutes while they top-up.

        …And when the temp goes below 4°F the vehicle will still only go about 120 miles. Whaddya suppose all those families living in their Biden-mandated all electric homes are going to do when there’s a line at the pump and it’s 20 below…?

      • Seems Idemitsu/Toyota are betting on ‘sulfide solid electrolytes’.

        https://global.toyota/en/newsroom/corporate/39865919.html

        Earlier in the year people didn’t believe insect proteins were coming. Now factories are being built. Food will be fortified with bugs.

        “Tyson Foods, Inc. (NYSE: TSN), one of the world’s largest food companies, has reached an agreement for a two-fold investment with Protix, the leading global insect ingredients company. ”

        Tyson has an audience, school lunches:

        “We’re honored to supply independent restaurants, U.S. military commissaries, and the National School Lunch Program as well.”

        • The storage technology is irrelevant.

          If it takes one unit of energy to produce one unit of work, it is physically impossible to get more than one unit of work from that one unit of energy. IOW it is impossible to get more energy out of a storage device than you put into the device.

          To put it another way:

          If it takes 20whp to maintain a steady 60mph in an automobile, it takes 20whp, period. It doesn’t matter whether the 20hp comes from gasoline or diesel or gas or electricity — it still takes 20whp, and you still have to put enough petrol or electricity (potential energy) into the car to produce 20hp for one hour, at its wheels, to make it move that 60 miles in 60 minutes.

        • I’m happy Idemitsu and Toyota are out to build a better battery.

          That’s awesome.

          It is also meaningless gobbledegoop. While it may significantly reduce the weight of the battery pack (which is a plus), it will also add another layer of complexity to an already complex process, and irrespective the happytalk, you have to transfer every joule of energy from the grid or a PV stack, into the vehicle, before you can use it. Accomplishing that in 10 minutes is only possible in theory, not practice.

          The advantage would be weight-reduction. The disadvantage would be added complexity, which means a lesser realiability. The rest is BS, designed to make people with more money than brains, part with some of it.

  2. Yo Mr FRN,

    think Ure analysis market trend is pretty good..pretty dam good. I be looking for the “10:00 AM reversal” BTC/SPY. Keeping my eye on the Oct low. Suspect we will be testing that level on Monday.
    Nice to see pedo joe with a new Chin, did anyone else notice? Wonder what happened to his old Chin ? hmmmm
    Guess he got Fetermanized somewhere along the line.

    The greatest Technology in the world of high Finance, BTC, looks to be taking off. BTC prolly bumps its head on $30k level, hopefully pulls back so some speculative types can BTFD again, before BTC climbs up to around $36k in 2024 going into the Halving.

    What a party !

  3. Looks like they’re going on a mission…

    The Israeli army appears to be set to launch a ground invasion of the Gaza Strip, with photos emerging of a fleet of tanks lining up on the border, where hundreds of thousands of soldiers have camped out in recent days.

    https://nypost.com/2023/10/20/tanks-line-up-at-gaza-border-as-ground-invasion-appears-imminent/

    “You’re inches away from death every time you go on a mission. How much older can you be at your age? A half minute before that you were stepping into high school, and an unhooked brassiere was as close as you ever hoped to get to Paradise. Only a fifth of a second before that you were a small kid with a ten-week summer vacation that lasted a hundred thousand years and still ended too soon.”
    (Catch -22 quote)

    • Remarkable lack of historical perspective on part of tribes military minds. In every single instance in military history that my feeble brain can recall ,where ground troops went into “bombed” out cities – they all get waxed.It is very nasty business.

      Fighting in the dark, unknown tunnel systems – takes some enormous balls and bravery. The tribe does NOT possess such attributes, as they only know RAPE & TERROR

      Hard to imagine this op going well for them or their SecretIntelligenceService(ISIS).

    • Speaking of photos, did anyone see the photos of the Delta Force operators Creepy Joe doxed during his Israeli speaking tour?

      Rumor has it SOCOM is none too pleased with the CiC, and the wives of the sojers are indescribably angry, since President Houseplant has just stood them and their kids up in a shooting gallery…

  4. re: no bull

    Folks,

    Upcoming winter Taurus star gazers of Aldebaran (The Follower) attended by The Hyades Cluster (The Rain-Makers) shall be duly rewarded?

    Radio Poland among others has noted the latest from the Ukrainian newspaper “European Truth”. Apparently Germany will not be supplying long-range Taurus missiles to the Ukraine. One understands that the bombshell news was conveyed to President Zelensky via a short communication from the German ambassador to Ukraine. The Chancellor is surely a busy man.

  6. I’ve worked in “Emergency Services” –mostly in a “Ready Reserve Backup Communications” mode — for nearly 65 years now. From the late 1950s to right now, and I’ve learned that most True Emergencies (with a well-deserved capital ‘E’) get worse — often MUCH worse — before they start to get better. I’d say that’s the norm for Big Ones. People and materiel begin to run out, fail, or get worn-out or demoralized only a few days in to a Really Big One. “Stuff Burns Out, and people get tired, crabby, and inefficient..”

    Fortunately, Really Big Ones are very rare.

    Me? I’m old now — nearly 80. Suddenly blind in my right eye — I think maybe due to The Clot Shot; but no doctor will say so (I’ve tried.), with bad COPD and bad A-fib, and a touch of pretty well-controlled diabetes — not exactly the picture of health and strength. (Although I feel pretty good, generally.) I don’t expect to survive a Major-Bad-Ass-General-Global-Cramp. (Especially if it involves the release of Gamma Rays in any significant numbers.)

    I’ve always been a bit of a “Practical Prepper” — meaning the “80-20 Theory” applies; and my concentration has always been about hurricanes, blizzards, long-ish power outs, and other “common” emergencies. I’ve never seen Heavy Duty, Long-Term High Survivability level prepping as affordable, or reasonable in terms of time-work-money expenditures — because comprehensive prepping calls for LOT of continuous maintenance and expense.

    I’m content with this: I’m not heroic. My much-beloved wife passed away on Aug 29th, and life since then has held little purpose or excitement.

    So, if I fall silent, do not be concerned: I’ll be Fine.
    It’s a choice and a decision. Fighting beyond a certain (still unknown) point, doesn’t seem like it has a lot of appeal — all things considered.

    I mean, Why?

    – 73 –

    • Dang that’s all beginning to sound SOOOO familiar now. Sitting here with two braces on one knee, my usual strength waning and the occasional afib making its appearance all too often, too, it hasn’t been a good year but I’m still addicted to George’s Place. One of my most fervent prayers is that I go first before the wife for reasons you can fully attest to. I hope your kids respect the things you hold dear and carry them forward as their own treasures. I’m never quite sure about my kids’ philosophies and values. I think, at 37 and 41, they’re still figuring theirs out regardless of how much they placate or pander toward me.

      It’s a different World from what most of us here grew up in. My job right now is trying to make sure the next generation has something firm to set foot on when I make my exit and deny TPTB as much of it as I possibly can. What worked well for my previous generation doesn’t fit in today’s World that well any more and I know it will be the same with my kids’ and grandkids’ World. The best you can do is package and transfer as much power for them to use in their own lives as they confront their hurdles. If you don’t have kids perhaps there’s someone out there you can be a benefactor to.

      I’m sure you know by now that one’s personal sense of well-being heavily colors our outlook. Do your best to step outside of that when you can and see things as they are. Inhabit those places that give you good perspective. Even though at this point “Prepping” may not appear be necessary there’s always something to prep for when you consider those you’re still connected to. Ending the race at full tilt is better than resigning yourself to be carried across the Finish Line on a litter if at all possible.

      • William and Bill. I hope our friend Winter is still hanging out here. From your posts, he will get a sense of this group if he hasn’t already. I share the sentiment and experience in your comments and couldn’t have stated it any better.

        This is not a group of doomsayers but rather a group that have experienced life, carried crosses, lost loved ones but still have life to live and share with others. Being part of this group is important to me.

        • @Old Bic: Well put. Prepare for the worst, expect the best. Posts here and remembering the friend whose memorial service I will attend tomorrow by Zoom have me in a meditative mood and contemplating my own future. “Still have life to live and share with others” is a key phrase.

          My friend died on her 99th birthday after starting a regimen of little water and no food. She lost most of her vision by about 5 years ago and a stroke 2 years ago made communication extremely difficult. But even after her vision was gone she started a successful campaign to roll back a rate increase in her assisted living facility. She raised three daughters who were devoted to her. She was a Quaker and a persistent advocate and demonstrator for disarmament. At about the age of 75 she went to China for a year to teach English. When she was 80 she traveled to Mongolia and Tibet with me and my wife and camped on the Gobi. At 85, despite persistent arthritis, she traveled to Sweden and enjoyed dancing at my son’s wedding. A couple of years later when she was visiting a granddaughter who was teaching in Japan she experienced congestive heart failure and was hospitalized there. On her return she commented about it being an “interesting experience” and that they didn’t wake up patients to take their vitals. She has been for me a model for a successful retirement. She experienced pain but never went sour and always was thinking of either friends or the good of the world at large. In her early 90s she was delivering food bank boxes one Christmas eve, slid off an icy road into a ditch, got towed out, and finished her run.

          A few days before she died she dictated a good-bye letter. Two particularly poignant sentences: “I leave this long and wonderful life with gratitude for my journey and all the wonderful people I have met in my travels. I leave with a great deal of joy as I look forward to my next great adventure.”

          I will miss Fran.

        • As an answer to WotRR and Bill:

          “Why?”

          Because the rest of us will miss you.

          We all learn from each other. We likely all contribute something to each other’s life and well-being. The stuff we contribute is passed on. What Bob says will color what I tell my kids; what I say will color what Bill tells his kids or grandkids; what WotRR says will influence the rest of us HAMmy types; LOOB’s recipes will color what all of us tell our progeny, and so on. This place isn’t just George’s home away. It is ours, as well…

      • LOL. Poor ol’ Dan Bongino is losing his mind on the radio watching the congress critters make a mockery of our country. Hate to tell him I think it’s a lost cause right now but that might discount his reason for having a show. Perhaps he ought to go back to square one with the country and start reading The Tuttle Twins’ stories to us.

    • I am so sorry to hear of your loss William. my sincere condolences..
      I myself fear that approaching time..
      put one foot in front of the other. baby steps to work through the pain and loss..
      I myself want my time and remaining time to be of some value to giving others a hand up.. not just an empty shell that others will be reminiscent to others as. well they didn’t need a casket..they just had to screw him in the ground..

    • You don’t know me, so I don’t know if this will mean anything.., but I truly am sorry for your loss. I have no grand words of wisdom, or meaningful solace. My misses and I have actually discussed the eventuality – and came to the mutual agreement that it would probably be best if she went first., as after a couple of months, and everyone has drifted away she would be left alone and if this all blows up she would not do very well by herself.
      – “I mean, Why?” – Only you can answer that and its a question many of us have asked, or will ask of ourselves. I don’t think there is an easy answer.
      – There are those who think kindly of you. Try to remember that.

      • “and everyone has drifted away she would be left alone”

        That was like a punch in the gut for me. When my wife died one evening a little over five years ago, family came for a few days. Some came from what I would consider great distances.

        I’ve spent much of my adult life alone, but after my wife died and visiting family left, I was more alone than I had ever been. And, yes, I still am.

      • well said…p
        I fear the day ..if I go before the wife she would have a difficult road ..but I’m sure the kids eould look out for her.. if she passes on before myself ..I will turn the house over to the grandchild that needs it the most..

    • Bill wrote:
      “Ending the race at full tilt is better than resigning yourself to be carried across the Finish Line on a litter if at all possible.”

      William:
      When my sons were young there was a cartoon movie of a Dinosaur and his friends who traveled though their lives … and in that movie there was death … they called it the “Great Circle of Life” if I recall it correctly. Some might feel that such a cartoon movie was not appropriate for kids, particularly young kids, but I thought it was a “PERFECT” show for kids to watch since it showed life in it’s fullness, something many kids are not exposed to. VERY controversial at the time, though later partially, but not as well done, the concept was incorporated into The Lion King. ( “The Land Before Time” ) (story of it’s creation
      https://www.vulture.com/article/don-bluth-the-land-before-time-interview-animating-death.html ).

      Death and Grief are difficult to deal with, particularly when it comes to a long time companion. That is normal will be experienced by most as part of our “life experience”. Almost everyone here is old enough to have had to experience that.

      Best wishes for your mindset as you move forward … “The Great Circle of Life” … it has always been that way, and will probably always be that way.

      Best wishes

      • If you’ve made it past the first decade-plus with your spouse to the point where you are definitely a “couple”, completing each other’s sentences, not having to ask so much “what do you think of this, that or the other thing?” because you already know the answer and your life goals are, indeed, COMMON goals, as far as you know, then you know how separation works with the two of you. I was pretty sure right off the bat that she wasn’t going to live with a military “Lifer” given the grief she gave me for the few years I was in the Navy after we married. The first time we managed to get housing for a short time and were moving out to live off base I had to go to work and was worried someone was going to come up to me that day and say that she’d been arrested for murder. Those inspections they do on the way out aren’t easy to deal with if you don’t know what’s coming and don’t have a military mindset. Spic and span may make Good Housekeeping happy but not a military inspector with white gloves and a bad attitude. “Inspector, meet my wife, I’ve gotta go to work. You did bring body armor didn’t you?”

        Over the years, though, living in a town my wife was born and raised in, having kids nearby, the ranch and old friends still here and in good health, at least mentally, her younger sister’s still here, too … dammit … AND coming to the realization that “Meskins” (I can say that as a White boy with all the love in the World) have a mean streak in them a mile wide and a foot deep that never stops growing, tells me she’s going to get along just fine without me. Not all women are like that and it’s one reason I married her. The other was that, from the perspective of the 1970s social fracas that was my “Reality” I determined I was going to look for a woman that valued family and kids over just about everything else and I found that, more often than not, in the Hispanic community – much to my parents’ chagrin. At first. But they got over it.

        When this girl came along I was 21 and had gone on exactly two “real” dates in my life because, other than physical attraction (that I think the folks were beginning to wonder if it existed at all), I had nothing in common with all the light-complected girls I knew. Ritchie Cunningham (if you remember him. Opie?) was an overt womanizer compared to me. It really and truly WAS very much like fate when we got together. My step-dad, out of desperation I’m sure, said while we were waiting in the dive-up line at the bank one day “Hey, there’s that Fuentes girl a few lanes over. Why don’t you ask her out?”. So I rolled down the window and hollered across the parking lot and asked her out. What else could she say in front of her friends? We had a date and it went either up or down hill, depending on your perspective, from there. Her sister, if I remember correctly, was in the car with her and still hates me to this day. I took her Big Sis away from her but we didn’t go far. At least my step-dad spoke pretty good Spanish so he could get along at the wedding. Not so much Mom. It was a short reception.

        Fast forward to the first grand-baby … the one we’re raising in our house now … and that “family orientation” I prized so highly came back to bight a big fat chunk out of my a$$. This “girl” didn’t sleep in our bed for damned near a YEAR because she became so attached to the grandkid she basically stole her away from her mom, our daughter, who had moved back in with us. (Another long story I’ll spare you) It’s the closest I’ve ever come to actually asking for a divorce. … I still think about it at least every other day just to check but I got back to where I can say, at least today, “Nope.”. Maybe tomorrow. I’ll check back then.

        Long story short on this tome, whether IN or OUT of marriage BOTH are going to happen to at least one of you and both of you need to be strong enough to weather the storm – which is what Life IS. It’s why the one left tends to move back closer to kids or old friends. That goes without saying. Occasionally there are those that do “alone” very well and if it happens that I’m the one left then I think I’ll do that very well as long as I have the ranch or something like it. The wife? She’s going to have a harder time with this grandkid leaving the nest in a few years (depending on what the World looks like then) than planting ME in the ground. So I know she’ll be fine.

        • What I remember about those inspectors who “clear” you from family housing is that if you don’t hire the inspector’s brother, cousin, friend or other “approved” bubba, you won’t stand a chance of getting that inspection signed off.

        • I had a Navy friend who was moving out of Pearl Harbor housing. The wife was telling me on the phone the horror stories ‘inspection’. I offered to bring them a meal as they were both busy ‘cleaning’. When I got to the house, wife forbade me to enter the house. It smelled of Clorox. We sat outside and ate. Husband was busy steam-cleaning the inside of the dumpster that he had tipped on it’s side. I asked him, “Didn’t you just pressure wash that yesterday?” “Yes! And today it gets sterilized!” was the reply.

          When we were done eating, I took the trash home with me.

    • WOTRR.

      We need you; don’t go.

      A man walked into our shop, said he was mid 70’s, has diabetes, and has been on Meformin for 20 years and says that has destroyed his legs (circulation and pain). Has had some fancy surgeries to try to get circulation back in both of them as sores would not heal. One surgery worked on one leg, took 2 surgeries on the other leg, they didn’t work.

      Said he is now on something new called: Mounjaro Injectable, and it completely took his appetite away so that he can control his appetite. He said his wife is a wonderful cook and has cooked for him 3 meals a day all these years, and doesn’t want to stop. Good meals, too, but he says, he needs to cut his portion sizes. She also cooks for neighbors, anyone with a need.

      He offered all this info; he’s a tall guy, over 6’1, well built, using a cane now. He said that they want to amputate the one leg to just above/below the knee.

      He said, how was he to put his wonderful wife of 55 years in a position trying to take care of a man his size, missing one leg? How would she take care of him? Nursing home too expensive.

      He said he had an exit plan in mind, he said thousands die each year in this country the very same way. Something to do with his diabetes.

      I tried to encourage him and gave him suggestions/solutions from my experience.

      He mentioned, IN TEXAS, there is a thing called the LADYBIRD DEED.

      IF you live in Texas, look into it. You can leave your property to your children, do the deed now while you are alive, it takes effect after after you both pass (if there is one of you, then after that one passes). It only took a $950 lawyer fee to set it up (some of you may be able to do it a lot cheaper than that).

      I told him that I have consulted with THREE lawyers, in the last 15 years, and not one has EVER mentioned the Lady Bird Deed.

      It keeps the house out of probate; can live in it until you pass. Can still sell it, just nullifies the LBDeed.

      • LBDT: When we moved to Florida 10 years ago we saw a lawyer about estate planning after going to a “living trust” seminar sponsored by a different lawyer who promoted the trust as a solution to all problems. The lawyer we retained saw that our only significant assets were our house and brokerage accounts. He suggested retitling some of the brokerage accounts and changing the house to a Lady Bird Deed so that it would pass directly to our son without probate. It has been many years and I don’t remember the exact number, but I think the fees were only a couple of hundred dollars. No trust creation fees. I’m guessing it would be applicable in all states, not just TX and FL. Apparently Lady Bird Johnson was the first one to use this device.

        • George, if I might add…

          “A homestead is the primary residence owned and lived in by a person or a family. A homestead exemption protects at least part of the value of the homestead from creditors. Texas and a few other states, as the second column in the table below shows, provide unlimited protection up to the full value of a home. In Texas, no creditors except a mortgage holder, a taxing authority, or the holder of a note for a home improvement loan may force the sale of a family home to satisfy nonpayment of debt. Most states set a maximum level of homestead protection, but some, like Pennsylvania, provide no state homestead protection at all.”

          https://texaspolitics.utexas.edu/educational-resources/comparing-homestead-exemption-states

  9. Remember back in March 2023 ?

    https://www.timesofisrael.com/source-close-to-netanyahu-accuses-us-of-funding-rallies-against-judicial-overhaul/

    From what I hear, that Israel was damn close to a civil war and feelings never really subsided.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Israeli_judicial_reform_protests

    Some people who don’t seem to have a short attention span, tell me this is (some) of the reason for what’s happening now.

    Folks are angry at Hamas and Netanyahu … on both sides.

    It’s interesting to note: Netanyahu blamed Biden while the Biden Administration blames Trump.

    Meanwhile … Joe giving financial aid to the Palestinians and military support to Israel, kinda doesn’t make sense. It’s a bit confusing.

    • “Meanwhile … Joe giving financial aid to the Palestinians and military support to Israel, kinda doesn’t make sense. It’s a bit confusing.”

      Hmm..it’s really not that confusing… with the family business model of wheeling and dealing the brand ..it’s in the business model..he pretty much has to .

      • Yeah, I was being a bit sarcastic when I said it was confusing. Hell, he got caught sticking his fingers in the cake, and it shows.

        His bs has started more global conflict than anything in history, that I know of.

        • Naw… Joe’s an amateur (in so many ways.) At least when someone crossed LBJ or Clinton, they had an accident. I’m not countin’ Barry because his body count isn’t even in double-digits. Creepy Joe just tortures and torments. Vichy is literally responsible for the deaths of millions of people, the vast majority of whom would never have even come to blows, without her influence. Hell, after the Reich ended, Soros never held a job or position in any government, yet has a body count that’s in the high sixes.

          Pol Pot gots nuthin’ on the Ignited States…

    • Remember back in March 2023 ?
      From what I hear, that Israel was damn close to a civil war and feelings never really subsided.

      IIRC Israel’s Judiciary has power over both their Parliamentary and Administrative bodies:

      In the U.S., the Judiciary can toss a law that Congress makes, but in Israel, their Judiciary can make law from the Bench, and neither the Knesset nor the Prime Minister (nor both, together) can override it. Netanyahu strove to change this, to balance power between their government branches. Leftists in the U.S. have striven to vest more and more power in our Judiciary, so they can “Benchmake” laws which are so egregious or intrusive, or just plain illegal, that they can’t get them passed in Congress. Accordingly, certain “assets” within our D.C. cesspool were dispatched to Israel (much like when Obama sent his “election team” to Israel to try and defeat Bebe) to keep their judiciary from being de-horned to where it was only equal to the other branches of their government.

      Netanyahu blamed Biden because it was he (actually, it was probably Obama, dba “Biden,”) who caused the agitation…

  10. The chess board is now set up so as to ENSURE that a multitude of American Service People DIE early on in the dispute between Israel and those who it stole lands from.

    As I mentioned previously this dispute is much like that between the Europeans who came over to settle the northern part of this Continent and the native residents … it is a War of Population Displacement, and it is NOT going away no matter how many of the previously native people you kill UNTIL one side or the other has killed off a vast majority of the other people.

    Obviously because the reason those Europeans decided to move to the Mid East where they hadn’t lived in large numbers for nearly 2000 years was Religious, their Religion, the Population Replacement dispute thus has taken on a huge Religious Overlay.

    Is that the proper kind of dispute for the US to risk it’s entire future as a unified country on? … something that I believe we are doing. A Population Displacement War based upon the Religious Beliefs of a very small group of people?

    When the battle blows up into a HUGE affair the US is not going to be able to claim it is an “Innocent Third Party”. The US will be deep into the thick of that battle now that it has placed it’s trigger “Cannon Fodder” soldiers into the middle of that conflict.

    The US is now just waiting for the deaths of those sacrificial “Cannon Fodder” soldiers so as to justify a full scale War on behalf of a small group of non-compromising Religious Zealots. (who don’t even make up much of the US’s population – they are <3% of the US's population)

    The most likely outcome for the US once the War eventually gets rolling – which may be this year or may be 20 years from now but rest assured when your "partner" is a bunch of non-compromising Religious Zealots" it will come eventually since those Religious Zealots have already been waiting 2000 years for this battle – there will a horrendous number of deaths by Americans and mass destruction in our country too.

    The religious overlay of this "Population Displacement" War is what makes this conflict so bad for the long term survival of the US when it gets directly involved in the upcoming mass killings.

    The US couldn't even remain and continue to occupy Iraq, a county of just 40 million people who ended up hugely resisting our efforts to occupy it.

    Afghanistan was just Iraq repeated … they wouldn't stop resisting our occupation, even 20 years on.

    Because of the Religious Overlay to this conflict of Population Displacement War(s) how could we upon the conclusion of the actual fighting – assuming we would win, occupy the entire Middle East, North and Central Africa, much of Western Asia, Pakistan, and Indonesia all with a combined population of nearly 2 billion?

    How many of the remaining "Americans" (whatever that will consist of at that time … 1/2 Mexican and Central Americans by then?) will that take?

    Alas … some CRAVE the upcoming War for some reason thinking that the killings of hundreds of millions or billions will make the world a better place, and somehow because of that battle and the deaths of millins/billions that THEY PERSONALLY, or THEIR ethnic or religious tribe, will enter some kingdom of bliss upon their death.

    "I" and all the other people on this board, and our families, are just passengers on this ship that is steaming at full speed into iceberg laden waters on a moonless night with no lookouts posted, no radar turned on, and no desire on the part of the Captain or Bridge Crew to slow the ship down or exercise caution as they push the ship forward as fast as they can towards it's "Final Destination".

    Enjoy the ride … while the ship is still afloat. It is a wonderful and fast ride, for now.

      • Sa-aM/Enki/nuddimud/Asars’-Iggigi – The Nungal – The Watchers – appeared white skinned -actually fine white feathers..hence Thoth/Theutty known as an Ibis God- The brothers of light fought for Atlantis-Eygypt -Humanity. Most often wearing Dog masks during battle – See Enkis’ 1/2 brother Annubis – always represented as a Dog God.

        Enil – Setes aka Seth, Typhon, Zeus HATED all mankind..Slaves at best. Way more Annuna were created than The Nungal. Known as Annunaki on Uras/Earth – viscous, blood drinking warriors – greenish skin, red eyes. Last battle was in front of MIR when Heru/Horus 1st lost an eye to Setes metal tipped whip – Wedjet Eye – (only ones with concentric circles in center are ancient. Setes was fianlly defeated by Horus – who chose to castrate Setes with his “Kirku” light sabre like crystal, laser being just 1 of its capabilities… Threw his near dead self over an ass & sent it into the area in ME once again on fire.

        See Moon/Itud and DUMBs lowest level. Need to get past miserable Grays, to get to the stanky ass reptilessssssss

        Never in million years guess what they be doing down there..They its wicked and try to block/hide whenever Viewers go down there to look around. (A51)

        .

    • Stephen 2, great insights.

      I found this today:

      “America is a golden calf and we will suck it dry, chop it up, and sell it off, piece by piece, until there is nothing left but the world’s biggest welfare state that we will create and control.

      This is what we do to countries that we hate. We destroy them very slowly.”

      Benjamin Netanyahu
      Recorded at Finks Bar Jerusalem 1990

      That’s EXACTLY what they are doing. PLAN on living in that mess they’ve created.

  11. “There are two wars ongoing of major consequence and a third looms in Asia.”

    IF…NN Brandon pushes us into a war with china…do you think I would still be able to order things from TEMU….

    Taiwanese people aren’t stupid and I doubt seriously how much the NN business model for the sell out family gets.. when the Shit hits the fan. Chinese phosophy puts value in the people and family..not some dam number on a sheet of paper..
    The Chinese spirit is paradigmatically expressed in two sayings, “as Heaven’s movement is ever vigorous, so must a gentleman ceaselessly strive,” and “as Earth is broad and profound, so must a gentleman be greatly virtuous and lenient.”

    • I don’t think major Asian religions have an Apocalypse. The Apocalypse is a Western thing.

    • Seems to me ‘ol Greg is a serious Bible-thumper, so in spite of his tendency to hype the “end times”, he may think Nostradamus was tapping into some sorta devil worship. Just my opinion I could be wrong.

  14. They started the gun fight – then got the hell out of Dodge.
    – The top three leaders of Hezbollah and their number one general have all relocated to Cairo.
    – The fact that Egypt let them in, speaks volumes., doesn’t it? [ rhetorical.]
    – Israel is, once again, completely surrounded by those who wish them destroyed. They do not have a single ally in the entire region. Even the Suadi’s are making war noises.
    – This going to end very badly., and probably very soon.

    “Stay Frosty !”

    • Not only that, but the good ole’ US of A will be comprised of small fractions of land that people can habitate in and basically be ineffectual on the world scene once the shit-show gets started. I think there’s a Bible verse of the people who dwell in the “coastlands” thinking they have nothing to fear are in for a big surprise….Probably why you don’t find mention of the USA in Bible prophecy much if at all.

    • “The top three leaders of Hezbollah and their number one general have all relocated to Cairo.
      – The fact that Egypt let them in, speaks volumes., doesn’t it?”

      Nostradamus and The Age of Desolation, G. A. Stewart, 2013, Page 491

      Following one likely scenario that follows Nostradamus’ predictions, is that perhaps during the invasion of Gaza a smuggled Egyptian nuclear device might be brought into the Palestinian territories.

      https://theageofdesolation.com/nostradamus/2023/10/13/the-crocodile-has-hidden-on-the-land/

  15. I had three very good trades this week. Just got out when the NASDAQ100 hit -125 on the down-side.
    .
    Now waiting to see if I should hold over the weekend.
    [Options – Puts ]

  16. Looks like they are waiting until market close.

    Tel Aviv is seven hours ahead of Washington so the attack may happen soon after dinner dishes are put away DC time/Midnight Tel Aviv time.

    Crescent Moon. It’s gonna be dark rolling into an already bombed out Gaza.

    https://www.moongiant.com/phase/today/

    My money would be on the F sinking but I don’t know where to get action.

  18. George,

    The growth and decay of asset valuations within the global 1.4 quadrillion dollar equivalent asset-debt macroeconomic system is self-ordering and deterministic. The mathematical pattern confers on the system the properties of a self assembly science akin to quantum physics, physics, astrophysics, chemistry, and biochemistry.

    Today concluded the 22nd week of an 11/22 week subfractal (1)/ subfractal (2) fractal series or from the 13 March 2023 low 52/104 days. The final fractal growth and decay in 5-minute units for the SPX starting at 1130 AM EST was 10/25/21 units with the 21 unit subfractal (3) following a 4/9/9-10 unit decay. Of the 9-10 unit subfractal (3) of this fractal series the 9th unit was a low with a final lower high in the 10th unit, falling at the end of the trading day to a slightly higher low than the 9th unit. That 10th unit was the lower high of day.
    This is the third day of an 18 October 2/1 of5/5 day :: x/2.5x/2.5x decay fractal series of a 27 September 2023 5/12/10 day decay series.

    Recent 2x-2.5x nonlinearities occurred on 19 October 1987 with a preceding 11/26 month subfractal (1) and subfractal (2) series and on 6 May 2010 with a preceding 19/44 week subfractal (1) and subfractal (2) series beginning from the low in March 2009.

    Both of the former fractal series occurred in the setting of money and debt expansion. The 13 March 2023 52/104 day fractal series is occurring under conditions of severe debt and money supply contraction.

    Expect AI selling analogous to the computerized selling on 19 October 1987 and 6 May 2010.

  20. I very distantly recall many — MANY — years ago reading a prophecy (?) about the sinking of an American carrier — somewhere just south of Greenland (?) with huge loss of life, and resulting in a berzerk America gone mad for revenge — against who was not clear. But my little neck hairs stood up, and I got a distinct chill in my bones at the tine, and for some reason have never forgotten it; and every time I’ve recalled it since, having the same creepy feeling. Call it whatever you like.

  21. Hi, George,

    I know that you are aware of my husband passing the end of February 2019, but others here may not know. To lose a beloved spouse is one of the hardest things in life to experience. He had just turned 59 when he suffered a massive heart attack. Thankfully, I was able to catch him when he was falling from his chair. Since we were both on the local mountain rescue team for two decades, we learned some medical procedures like CPR. I performed CPR on my husband, which saved him until the paramedics arrived. I am leaving out a lot of details, as they will not be relevant to the story. He survived the emergency quadruple heart bypass but died two weeks later from other complications. We had been married 35 years.

    The tasks that the surviving spouse has to accomplish can be monumental, especially if you are alone. It took six months for me to get it all done. A lot of prayer and meditation helped me along the way. Several close friends did lend their hands on occasion, for which I will always be grateful.

    I had a separate checking account from our joint account relating to my gem business. I paid all the bills always in our marriage and took care of the household duties as well as the automobiles. I have heard horror stories about widows left nearly destitute from only being a joint owner of a checking account with everything in their late husband’s name. These ladies had no way to pay bills, pay mortgages, and buy groceries. The bank will freeze a joint account when one spouse dies. My credit union was very helpful in getting all the banking affairs in my name.

    I did need the help of a lawyer for some paperwork that required a lawyer’s professional assistance. I asked for 15 death certificates from the funeral home and used all of them eventually. Also, my late husband took care of all things relating to our computers, so I did not know any of the passwords. This is a big FYI to a married couple to have a list of all needed passwords.

    The absolute devastation of the heart when one loses a loved one is horrible, and the subsequent loneliness can also be heart crushing. My prayers, sympathy, and blessings to those here who have lost a spouse. I am truly sorry for your loss.

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