Market’s Monday Rally But Then What?

Doggonit!  If I had just looked at the market charts, instead of working in the shop this weekend, I would have seen that the Chiefs were going to win.  Because?  (For those of us not hooked on Vegas-style T&A half-time shows, having sourced our own locally…)

Investopedia has a good article on the “Super Bowl Indicator” over here.  Since Kansas City is in the AFC, the market set to decline in the coming year.  But, markets don’t always pay attention to what’s going on down at the sports book…

Because, on any day, the odds of the market going up, or down, is nearly 50% (Samuelson, Fama, et all in “Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), MIT), however, it helps to read the 2019 paper (Tom Delcey, cited here) because there really is a key polysemy between Eugene Fama’s “random walk” approach and Paul Samuelson’s “Martingale” basis.  There’s  random and there’s  Random.  And the art to all gambling, including stocks, is in recognizing “the runs” of up and down action.

Whew!  Too heavy for this old mind on a Monday, huh?  We do a lot better taking an idea like Elliott Waves and then sketching in “trading boxes” to help see where things might be going.  Not using a single market indicator, either:  We use a pile of data for “instant smoothing” of what’s going on in our Aggregate Index approach.

Fast-forward to this morning:  My expectation for a Wave IV down in “in process” as you can  see here:

Several colors of boxes above, so what do they all mean?  Green is the longest-time-frame on my daily chart.  Under the green are the recent 3-yellow boxes *meaning the intermediate 3 may be done.  Because the red boxes of the 3 look like a complete set of 3 up.  And the gray on the right are the decline we’re now into.  Oh, and this is ALL SUBJECTIVE.

What this chart suggests, and this is NEVER INVESTMENT ADVICE – just a friendly chat over the back fence between compulsive gamblers –  is that (referring to the green trading boxes) we have had a large (i) Up, (ii) Down, then the (iii) Up let go.  The three red boxes of (iii) show Wave ((i)) was the smallest, so there’s a valid Elliott count possible there.

With those gray boxes to the right?  Aye, that’s where the trouble-ahead lies.  Because we obviously had a 1 down of some magnitude.  Which resulted in a bounce to the beginning of the right-most box top, but you’ll notice that this morning’s “rally at the open” may be worth sitting out.  We “need” (in crackpot market theory) to “complete the box” down.

That’s because if this is indeed the Wave (iv) I’ve been waiting for, then what comes next will be of great interest.

One of the many possibilities is that the small three down (to make this little 3 down complete by going lower than the 1 down gray box) is yet to complete. Which might lead to a rally today, but not closing higher than last Thursday (as an Aggregate, Peoplenomics readers who use our spreadsheets might peg last Thursday around 28,027 and the futures pricing this morning suggests 27,650-ish at the open.

Cheaper than Vegas, but no one comes by offering free drinks.  So, for the dyed-in-the-wool pandemic paranoid, stay-at-home gambler, we’ll have to make due with half-time show re-runs and see where we are Wednesday, or so.

My hunch (and both Samuelson and Fama point to nearly 50-50 odds on any particular day) is that now is not the time to be brave bull, or to visit China.

Speaking of China

Cases continue to mount up.  You only need to go as far at the NY Po9t’s “Chinese stocks plummet as coronavirus outbreak worsens ” to get the gist of things.

More usefully, if you click over to the Hang Seng chart on Yahoo Finance, you can see the chances for a minor rally from here, (complex 4???) but then more downside is possible as Hong Kong’s population tenses up.

Part and parcel: Futures Rebound Despite Historic Bloodbath In China Where 3,257 Stocks Hit Limit Down.  Hour to the open US Dow futures up 162.  “Getcher dead cat bounces here!”

There are two other aspects to cover quickly.

The first is apparent confusion over where HIV fits in all this.  Outfits like  Forbes say don’t believe the HIV bioweapon conspiracy tales around the web.  Business Insider gets to likely source of confusion because “Thai doctors have been using a cocktail of flu and HIV drugs to treat coronavirus cases.”

And that may have led to the overdone claims that “Thailand ‘cures’ coronavirus with anti-HIV drug cocktail in 48 hours.”  Then, based in part on the UK Daily Mail hype about HIV meds here, Dettol, the company that makes one anti-viral has issued a press release downplaying hopes of a quick fix.  As the Brussels Times article here shows, coronavirus is listed on one of the company’s products, however.

Again, mental acuity is something to hold-onto in strange lands like this:  We need to be clear that an HIV anti-viral is a  million miles from being a “vaccine.”  Soft heads the day after Super Bowl might be permissible some places.  Just not here.

Worldwide, 14,557 confirmed cases as of Sunday with 305 deaths.  We expect when today’s report is issued, it will be up from there.  Compared with the 2002-2004 SARS Outbreak, which had 8,098 and 774 deaths in two years, Novel Corona Virus has already topped SARS cases and we’re half-way up the death count comparison and in less than a month.  To early to make meaningful comparisons, but BIG and SERIOUS are two words to keep in mind.

The Week Ahead

ISM Manufacturing at 10 Eastern this morning, the PMI 15-minutes ahead of that.

Tomorrow Redbook and factory orders may not move the needle much.  BUT come Wednesday?  ADP Employment numbers. and International Trade.  This would be a logical place for disappointment, since all those “leading economists” were telling us last month “no recession in 2020.”  Color us skeptical of “experts” (anyone from more than 2-hours away).

Thursday the Challenger Job Cuts report (we expect it to be up) and they Friday’s employment situation report from the FedGov which may be a “pull the rug out” or it will come next weekend.

Trends and Tracks

We will find out today how stupid voters in Iowa are.  (We admit to an anti-Biden bias based on his son’s antics in Ukraine).  See Battleground Tracker: What could happen in Iowa on Monday?  We like to think of this as a statewide IQ test, though.

Four years of Digital Coup and no sign of apologies in the MSM for the made-up Russia Hoax.  Glad Carter Page is suing the DNC and the law firm involved. President Trump is likely to be acquitted in impeachment trial, but we didn’t expect him to be tossed out by the Online Uprising, anyway.  Cue the State of the Union, eventually.

We are doggedly staying out of BTC despite stories like “Bitcoin logs best January performance in 7 years as value surges by nearly $40 billion.”  We continue to repeat there are no barriers to entry, and more than 2000 other cryptos out there.  A list of the top 200 is here.  Which to us sure looks like Making Up Money…

Missable Or Useless Dept.

Pamela Anderson and Jon Peters split 12 days after their wedding.

And on the BBC this morning, we see on the English government is whining about how “Nearly one million miss tax return deadline.”  To which we would remind the self-righteous governoids that from the East Texas Outback perspective, this looks liked citizen payback.  How long did it take government of the UK govt to finally – eventually, kicking and screaming –  get out of the EU?  See?  Turnabout is what (bitches)?

A quick look at the free money report from the NY Fed Repo Depot ($59.85-billion) and off to another exciting day of…..  Oh, 78-degrees here Sunday.  Climate change?  No. But a nice break as the rain and cold are due in for a few days…

Enjoy the traffic and Write when you get rich,

22 thoughts on “Market’s Monday Rally But Then What?”

  1. Good morning, George. I don’t mean to ask a silly question but what are your thoughts about astrology and how that influences (or doesn’t influence) world happenings or outcomes. Thanks for a possible reply. I appreciate it.

  2. Yo Georgie Boy – U cant just make up a digital currency and start printing cash ala the Treasury. No no no Georgie my boy – there are indeed barriers to entry – an intelligent White Paper would be a good place to start – read em prior to Buying – due Diligence – does it make sense – like crystal clear – does it solve existing problem (s)? Not just anybody/anybodies can write an intelligent Crypto White Paper – they are like Prospectuses – cept No regulations governing their Claims.

    I offered to U help over a year ago for the Ure Survival Token – which would unlocked & Monetize ALL your work/writing/research/ideas/experiments/podcasts – all of it – but Nooooo.. A “thirsty” Horse not Drinking proffered Water – things that make the BCN say Hmmmmm.

    Check official Russian Response to the “Wuhan Pneumonia” Virus on their border and the Timeline they came out with Effective Treatment Drug list and dosing guidelines.

    Ya dont think U cant contract the “Wuhan Pnemonia” using Bitcoin do U? wait what?! another use case…just remember –

    No Bitcoin 4 U!

    • “U cant just make up a digital currency and start printing cash”

      Sure you can Bitcoin…. Pickle Bum’s has a template for it… I was considering peanuts as the exchange… unfortunately.. I am afraid I would have to acquire a few more nuts than I already have LOL….. I can’t back it with marbles either seems I lost a few of those along the way as well.. But check out Pickle Bums.. heck you could be rolling in the cash and actually have something that you can fondle at least until they come out with the cherry two thousand.. LOL….a number on the computer screen just doesn’t cut it with me at least..especially if I can’t run down to Micky D’s and get a mack and coffee…..

      Just don’t forget.. PICKLE BUMS is the place to go..

  3. “Pamela Anderson and Jon Peters split 12 days after their wedding.”

    Dam George.. Bad news and then more bad news just what I wanted to hear .. I was sure this one was going to work out for her..
    Now I will have to weap silently tears of sorrow..

  4. Wow G – I was just catching up, having been out in the oilpatch a couple of weeks.

    I got the same OzGen you do, and we use it the same way you and E do – knock out odors and dust in a room then back on the shelf. I started using it in my bugout Toyota FJ too, now that she is long in the tooth.

    Not sure about the Corona thing – too much fake news around it and that always makes me suspicious. If it’s bad, we are ready as we can be anyway.

    Redneck gardening as you described is basically Japanese Fukuoka method – just plant the things or the seeds in abundance and let nature do the work. We started trying it on the slope of a ravine in the back side of our farm. We will see what crops back up this spring. Whatever does, we weed anything around the stem and mulch it up, then let it go. It seems to do well with cucumbers and maters.

    Our big issue these days is pollination, as we just had an influx of cattlemen across the street, and they went crazy with 2-4D. We will likely get some bees next month to try and get things improved, now that our wildflowers were all seeded out this year by not mowing much.

    I’m seriously enjoying the comedy of the Democrats these past few weeks – between the PeachMint and their Iowa ‘shipshow’, it would be a comdey gold mine if we didn’t have controlled media…

    • Hey! Tell SoOm2 *Son of Oilman 2″ I’ve got $200-bucks for him to take down 3-big trees up here. I supply the saw, wire rope, tractor, and beer!!! E sez Hi! (*and something about high octane homemade plum wine)(

  5. George
    Our definition of Expert was the “Schmexpert” or Expert-Schmexpert” (The last said in the accent of Mel Brooks 1000 y.o. Man.

    Business Card
    Card Shows:
    a Fancy Title of Credentials
    An Address over one hour away.

    I always explained this in meetings with older engineers that didn’t know what this smart-aleck kid was talking about, that the Expert-Schmexpert was the engineering personification of Christ’s observation that “There is no Prophet with Honor in his own home town.” This when He returned to Bethlehem and those who saw and heard him said “Isn’t this just the Carpenters Son?”

    So, there is some historical (or hysterical) validity to the observation.
    I have had meetings where some manager sat in a room of a dozen local PE’s and said “But what does the expert at the home office in Denver Say?”
    What he said, turned out to be exactly completely wrong.

  6. A doubly good day for me. As George and I emailed over the weekend over a good natured ribbing over who was going to win the Super Bowl, I reminded him that the first 20 years of my life were spent in KC and I have been to about 100 games over my lifetime at Arrowhead and Municipal Stadium prior to that in the old AFL days. I have been and remain a Chiefs fan…However, I have been in the Bay area long enough to follow the Niners and my kids were raised here and are due-hard Niner fans, but yesterday they saw me with my old Otis Taylor Jersey as I reveled in the 4th quarter comeback.

    Then was surprised to see mu Tesla stock skyrocket 109 points as of 12:30 PST. I am heavily invested, so after winning a friendly bet yesterday and seeing today’s Tesla stock, February is off to a roaring start.

  7. It is not a ‘conspiracy theory’ just because they are using HIV antiviral drugs to effect a cure against the corona virus. Independent Researchers in India have deconstructed the viral DNA and found that it does indeed contain “HIV Insertions” in the coronavirus genome. This does not happen naturally. It is genetically engineered.

  8. yep .. this corona thing is all bs .. just another pack of lies to keep the AI robots processing and going.. this will end bad .. the evil the lies and those that run it prepare for the end . virus my butt uncle George .. have you joined all the rest ? looks like it .. the super race of USSA running the world .. the Nazis would be proud .. well heck down here in oz we had “regime change ” ,rigged elections last may to keep woo hoo going !!!

  9. Disguised foreign exchange controls may be creeping into the financial landscape at the end of April. I reviewed one of my bank statements this morning which featured prominent fine print regarding upcoming changes in deposit insurance regulations.

    I visited the CDIC’s (federal deposit insurer) website to see what was afoot. Indeed, term deposits greater than 5 years, mortage insurance account deposits, and foreign currency deposits are set to become uninsured. The “why” is buried in a CDIC summary page entitled “Highlights of Deposit Trends in CDIC’s Membership”. According to the CDIC, the big Canadian banks have shifted funding of their operations from now-dried-up demand deposits to longer term deposits, and foreign deposits especially of USD. The latter item weighs as the Cad $ depreciates. A chart from the second quarter of 2019 notes that for each two new Cad $ placed on deposit, the CDIC was having to insure one new USD.

    One imagines that smart Grandmas and Grandpas may be placing sacks of accumulated wisdom in safety deposit boxes – just in case, of course. This is not investment advice.

    Attention Seinfelders: bitcoin remains uninsured for the soup kitchen crowd. The House does not necessarily guarantee a morsel of gristle in every bowl. Sup slowly.

  10. George,

    Right on cue: gov licences for websites.

    Canada sets to control ALL Internet speech…

    Trudeau cabinet minister: all news websites must now get a government licence.

    Thanks for all you do, for this place to share & thanks to all in the comment section!

  11. More experts on bio-weapons are coming forward, but don’t seem to be given airtime by the leftist MSM. This should be no surprise to your readers:

    The Chinese Party propaganda effort stopped an effective response during the stage where the virus could have been controlled without mass casualties. The social media censors are simply repeating the Party line, and interfering with free speech. Twitter needs to be shut down and prosecuted for their censoring of ZH.

    Looking at the Hopkins site this afternoon, [426 (426 +623)] x 100% = 40.6%,which is about the same as this morning. The flattening of the Total Confirmed graph may be an artifact of hospitals filled to capacity. Twitter clips show victims dying on the street. No reason to suspect theatrical staging.

    Evidence (including the timeline) still points to a single point source containment failure. This weapon is too uncontrollably destructive to have any military use in any conflict scenario. This is the work of leftist madmen.

  12. Harry Chen PHD on twitter go to thread, The death count is a lie – creamatoriums running 24/7 most coronavirus dead not confirmed. Same with infected count. Confirmed only – lack of test kits,self quarantine and under reporting …….

  13. George – off topic but relevant to your interests:

    “Infection of Fungi and Bacteria in Brain Tissue From Elderly Persons and Patients With Alzheimer’s Disease”

    It seems that polymicrobial infections including especially FUNGI may be implicated in at least some Alzheimer’s! Polymicrobial would indicate perhaps a localized immunodeficiency.

    Yet another reason to keep up high dose Vitamin C and perhaps justifying the dosing with the heavier duty antibiotics you’d mentioned before. This definitely invites further inquiry.

  14. Excerpted from a genome-level study on 2019-nCoV

    Chinese Coronavirus Outbreak Traced Back To Snakes, Study Finds

    Now, researchers appear to have zeroed in on how the virus, officially named 2019-nCoV by the World Health Organization, first spread to humans: exposure to snakes at a wholesale market.

    A detailed genetic analysis of the virus was performed, in which it was compared to any available genetic information on other viruses from across the world and the animal kingdom. This work resulted in the conclusion that this new virus first formed due to the combination of a coronavirus strain usually found in bats with another coronavirus strain of largely “unknown origin.” The product of this combination was a new virus that featured a mix, or “recombination,” of a viral protein that recognizes and binds to host cell receptors. This ability to recognize and bind to host cells is effectively what allows viruses to enter new hosts, leading to infection and disease.

    So, while the very beginnings of 2019-nCoV appear to be linked to bats, researchers also found evidence that the coronavirus at some point made its way into snakes before ultimately reaching human patient zero. It was this aforementioned ability to recombine within the viral receptor-binding protein that likely facilitated the virus’ cross-species transmission from snakes to humans.

    Entire document may be found at the Journal of Medical Virology:

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