There is a ton data to digest today: New Unemployment claims, Philly Fed outlook, and retail sales. So that’s as good a focus as any…AFTER we go through a dart throw at the market.
What Does “Kiss the Sky” Mean?
“ Scuse me while I kiss the sky…” (memorable riff follows – thanks Jimi)
This is what the market was doing Wednesday and it was a flat out amazing site to behold. Because when you look at the following chart, you should be able to spot my “trading boxes” (the yeller ones) that argue that we are just ending an A-B-C correction from the Big Drop from late February to late March:
This is not your Dow – or the S&P for that matter. This is an Aggregate Index that I cobbled up back in the wreckage of the Dotcom bubble bursting. Because while some indices looked like there was no “tech wreck” the truth of the NASCrash was papered over by the financial industry.
Ure’s Financial Reality Check
Yesterday, we briefly – and I mean an hour or three – popped above the overhead resistance line. The top horizontal line that is extended from the February all-time-high.
As any damn fool can see, the market looks like it’s trying to go higher. With this lurking, we can almost here money managers licking their chops.
Now for the UGLY Secret (that only a very few super-bright minds like Mohamed El-Erian’s) seem to be able to comprehend: When the old all-time high was hit, how much money was sloshing around at M1?
Table 1 February data from the Fed H.6 report says $4,009.8- billion. (which is 4.0098 trillion to we mere mortals).
When we slide down to Table 2 for the most recent M1 number (four-week average) was $5,254.1 billion. Again for simpletons like Ure, that’s within a cheeseburger (or twelve) of $5.254 trillion.
Showing off the Online MBA:
“ Well, er, garsh Mickey…”
M1 from the previous peak to the flash-in-the-pan high yesterday was about 31.04 percent.
Now, follow the logic here because it’s really simple: If the stock market is just doing a “normal” 70-75% Elliott wave retracement, we need to take the aggregate index and decrement it by 31%.
See how the charade works?
We don’t think the MSM will out this tree-cutting binging any time soon, though. Easier to “feed the peep’s” stories like “Dow Futures Slide, Global Rally Pauses After China GDP Data; U.S. Coronavirus Infections Back Near Record Highs.”
After the data, Dow futures are down 200’ish.
Maybe we’re all supposed to keep “playing house and pretending to be grown ups” but you can bet your ass that steely-eyed Greedsters see – internalize – and adjust their outlooks.
Moreover, even within the Elliott Wave world, you will find arguments for and against including changes in the money supply in wave calculations. Going from memory here (dangerous at my age!) Bob Prechter over at Elliott Wave International has in the past suggested that monetary inflation doesn’t need to be consider for most counts in “normal” times.
But Ure stays up all night with his injuries (we’ll get to that in a sec) worrying about the ONLY QUESTION THAT MATTERS right now: HOW MUCH inflation needs to be injected into the system before the Money Supply Matters?
The “dim-witted George” thinks that if technical analysis doesn’t account for changes in money supply, then people have their heads where the sun don’t shine. Because if – as I suspect – it matters a hugely/bigly – then the rally could set marginal new highs and collapse “unexpectedly” after going up another 10-percent,. of so. Which would be a 100% Elliott retrace with a side order of 32% monetary inflation.
Specifics will depend how the printing ink at the Mint and the digi-dollars are cranked out on SWIFT…
But, it’s something to be critically aware of, since this is a “live money” exercise.
Weakly Unemployment Claims
From the presser: “In the week ending July 11, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 1,300,000, a decrease of (Ure says JUST) 10,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised down by 4,000 from 1,314,000 to 1,310,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,375,000, a decrease of 60,000 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised down by 2,250 from 1,437,250 to 1,435,000. ”
So, still in the 17-18% range.
Now the nightmare question: What if the jobs never come back? Happened in the Great Depression, you know…
Staying home and spending online, are we?
In the fine print:
“Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for June 2020, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $524.3 billion, an increase of 7.5 percent (± 0.5 percent) from the previous month, and 1.1 percent (± 0.7 percent) above June 2019. Total sales for the April 2020 through June 2020 period were down 8.1 percent (± 0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. ”
Philly Fed Outlook
See if this makes sense to you:
This and Thats
We should see CV-19 pass through 14-million this weekend. While that continues rolling along, “Can you get infected with COVID-19 twice? Experts say possibility is ‘certainly real’.”
Trump’s HR Revolving Door continues. When in doubt “hire and fire” is it? Trump replaces 2020 campaign manager Brad Parscale. Also of note “Trump team launches a sweeping loyalty test to shore up its defenses.”
Fox came off my TV watch list for handing out a “do over” when I don’t think they should have. The case? “Nick Cannon Apologizes for Anti-Semitic Remarks as Fox Announces He’ll Remain Host of Masked Singer.” (Would he have gotten a “do-over” if white? Of course no one in the left-run media will ask that question…)
ATR (Around the Ranch) Ure on Injured Reserves
About 2-weeks back, I scored a hell of a deal on a radial arm saw. Used, but a dandy Craftsman and it was had for just $50-bucks Deal.
Thing is, though, we had storms come through (that almost 8-inch rain event) and other non-stop excitement.
So, right after posting Peoplenomics Wednesday, I went out to the pick-up, slid the saw to the back of the truck, and lifted it out. I should have remembered that it took two adult men to lift it into the truck. I figured (after the fact) it weighs around 130-pounds, or so.
There I was: grappling with 130 pounds of gravity-possessed steel. As I turned, dropping into a squat to drop it onto the waiting hand truck, there was a “snap!” inside my back lower left thigh. Toes got numb. Also twisted the right knee in the process, too.
Elaine, ever the supportive spouse, said something about “RICE it – quick!!!” She’s been a lifelong gym-bunny and has seen miracles worked with Raise, Ice, Compress, Elevate. I should’ve listened.
Instead...Mr. macho decided “Naw, I’ll just walk it off…” And I headed up to Tyler, Texas to get one of those dandy 5-foot work benches that are on sale for $149. Urgency? I had a $20-gift card their customer service people sent me (long story) and I want to finish buying tools before America’s coming (screaming) inflation comes along.
II woke up about 12:30 AM.. hamstring hurting like hell and the gout (triggered by the knee twist) demanding I get that heavy sheet off my leg. Yeah, it really was THAT sensitive.
Lesson for Millennials: When you get to be an “old man” (I’m rolling through my 72-nd year now), try to remember to adjust your activities to fit the slowly changing condition of the old bod.
Second Lesson: Use only the painkillers you need following dental work or surgery. The rest? Save for mornings like this one! Code-what? Dean?
Alas, there goes my football career. But, since football will soon be more music than sports (I see football cowering to all kinds of groups and expect they’ll be playing 3-10 different anthems within a year. Just wait till Latino Lives Matters figures out the anthem push – everyone will want one!).
I won’t be missing much.
Sports is going through the same crisis that home appliances went through in the 1990’s. Adding idiotic “features” that had little to do with the appliance’s purpose. Now we’re adding anthems to football. See my point?
It’s like this: Do you need the IoT in your fridge to text your phone to remind you you’re low on beer? Are people that effing stupid?
While on the “injured reserve list” I’m hoping baseball doesn’t get screwed up like the NFL has. But the NFL is refining its uncanny ability to “steal defeat from the jaws of victory.” Say…why should any of America’s sports teams” get ANY CV-19 money?
Oh, maybe it all a scam. Gee, you think?
Off to hunt for more drugs. Write when you get rich,