Market Mystery, Data and FedSpeak Warmup

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Personal Income is our first fairytale today.  Theory is we’re all making more money, but what’s the old saying?  “The harder I work the behinder I get.”

Unless you’re the gubmint.  Because the more you make, they bigger the tax bite.  That is to say, when it comes to real disposable income, we haven’t seen much (if any) change in 20-years. But tax load?  Lordy!

Anyway, here’s the Gospel According to Government on this:

“Personal income increased $57.1 billion (0.2 percent at a monthly rate) in October. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $63.4 billion (0.3 percent). Personal outlays—the sum of personal consumption expenditures (PCE), personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—increased $43.8 billion (0.2 percent) and consumer spending increased $41.2 billion (0.2 percent). Personal saving was $768.6 billion and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 3.8 percent in October.

If you don’t feel like you’re getting ahead?  Purchasing Power Parity income is what matters.  We think there’s a reason Ireland is #2 in PPP per capita income:  GDP per capita, PPP by country, around the world.  The U.S. comes in at #9 in this.  Once upon a time…back when there was a real America.

Also of note, this being ThirstDay, is the new unemployment filings…

And as for how it felt experientially?

Just another day in the Worker’s Paradise, brothers and sisters.

Markets – HYPE Drive

Looks to us that the latest “Buy the Rumor, Sell the News” is setting up at Jerome Powell’s speaking tomorrow.  Two appearances but it seems obvious as hell to us that the Fed is NOT GOING TO LOWER rates any time soon.  We saw the Housing Prices far too strong Tuesday.  This means today, look for a hype and run-up:

We are still shy of the 7/31 high.  About a hundred above the Futures, but nothing would surprise us less than a double top.  One reason is the dma-x (Differential Moving Average Crossings) work we’ve done on the Peoplenomics subscriber side.  Check it out:

What this hints at (in so many words) is that the market is running out of fundamental strength.  That is, when the distance between the 2-day average and the 13 day is narrowing which, it is now, then the odds of downside increase if the market is in a rollover pattern.

But that doesn’t mean that serious short-side players (like me?) can’t quake in the boots a bit.  Still, hype before Fed Speak is our short-term expectation about what Future has in mind for us by the Friday close.

Bitcoin still under $38,000 at press time – so we keep an eye on that as a barometer of markets overall.

Rolling with Wars

People seem to be glossing over the potential for conflict with Iran now that the U.S. has carrier forces “in range.”  And especially when the congress has already gone on record saying that it’s “against American Policy” to allow Iran to become a member of the nuclear club.

Iran is getting ready for this coming conflict. In our look-ahead work, there’s a scenario where, in coming weeks, the U.S. goes head-to-head with Iran in an attempt to decapitate their nuclear program.  Problem is Iran is bracing and planning: Iran is taking over the Strait of Hormuz islands – the only exit for US carrier Ike (yahoo.com)

Then it gets worse. We can envision a playbook where the U.S. will be trying to play hardball with Iran and the Iranians organize the entire Islamic forces in region gang up on Israel by the end of the year.  When that happens, the Israelis would “go to nukes” and from there Muslim nukes are used (Pakistan, remember?). With Russia as partner, we are poised for a year-ending World War overnight which few, save a few “seers” like Manfred Zimmel seem to have in their sights.

Meanwhile, Gaza is almost ready for the return to war.  While the cease fire was holding earlier, it’s a long ways to peace. Israel-Gaza live updates: 3 killed, 16 injured in shooting in Jerusalem, police say. As this spreads, and with the Israeli interest in offshore gas off Gaza, we bet the West Bank will be extended to the sea within weeks as a matter of policy.  Once the hostages have been released. Or, when Hamas calls it over.

Meanwhile, the happy talk machines are hard selling the notion of Sweden joining NATO: Sweden expects Turkey to approve its NATO membership ‘within weeks’ (cnbc.com). Few are pinging Russia for how an expansion of NATO will move around their plans for national defense.  Remember, the NATO forces are not exactly EU forces, but close enough. And the EU already has long-standing agendas to lord over an EU from “Portugal to Vladivostok.”  Which they announced without consulting Russia.  They won’t forget such plans.

Energy Balance and Climate

B.S. and Biden are close enough in the dictionary for us to check one when there’s hype from the other.  With ongoing attacks on Coal, we’re reading now out of climate circles that LNGas may be worse for the environment than Coal. Check out As COP28 Kicks off, Merkley Urges: Don’t Greenwash Liquefied Methane Gas Exports. China is still going full steam on new coal plants while the U.S. is making home heating and use of nat. gas appliances tantamount to terrorism.  Go figure. B.S. and Biden, thus, are in the same dictionary which seems to be missing “Balance” from the B’s….

Meanwhile, though, we’d almost put a small wager that the story World to Hit 2.5F of Warming During 2023 as Hottest Year on Record (insurancejournal.com) might go into the same folder as “Sea Level rise to swamp NYC by 2000…”

Randomized:

Con men to judge a con man Dept. George Santos expected to see expulsion vote Friday, House GOP told to vote their ‘conscience’. We’re wondering about this “conscience” thing they mention.  In DC???? GMAFB.  Meanwhile, we think the remnants of the Republican club has lost any pretext of morality as Speaker Mike Johnson has ‘real reservations’ about expelling George Santos.  Better? We would advise “Vote on the Facts.”

Passings” Henry Kissinger, former US secretary of state, dies at age 100.

Popups to Browse Wars:  Meta’s “Consent Or Pay” Model Challenged In EU (forbes.com)

More on the web wars: Elon Musk says advertisers trying to ‘blackmail’ him: ‘Go f— yourself’.’ Don’t forget to brush first.

ATR: Ham Antennas & Biscuits

On the air? Latest super antenna design sucked.  All my hard work on the new antenna – which promised to be a minor miracle in design software, turned out to be a “hunk of junk” once I got it on the air. When the drizzle quits today, I will wind up the leftover wire and figure some new hare-brained scheme to beat the Laws of Physics.

My time machine plan was less than successful, too.  Seems like a trend, if you study it closely. Fun, don’t get me wrong. But a trend.

In its place, I’m now flying a version of the KS6BKW antenna and it’s working just dandy.  With the amplifier on, it was touching +40 dB over S9 out 150 miles, or so.  Very nice reports from the 3806 group. 1,200 watts PEP out. +30 over running “barefoot.”  Turned the amp off when testing was done.

Ham Radio conditions tomorrow:  Fair amount of talk on SpaceWeather and elsewhere about a big Geomagnetic storm due to strike Earth tomorrow.  Ham radio conditions likely to be all over the board with that. WSA-ENLIL Solar Wind Prediction | NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center.

The main topic over the first cup today wasn’t antennas, though.  We spent most of the conversation talking about biscuits and gravy, not to mention the coffee consumed with it.  Like the chicory mix at truck stops over in coon-ass country (Louisiana).

Something about spicy food that really makes coffee taste great (or the other way around).  “Try what my wife makes. Get an 8-pack of those frozen Monterey beef and bean burritos.  Lay ’em out in a cake pan. Drown ’em in chili sauce and put a load of cheese on it….”

Have to admit it sounded great.  But then a “topper” was tossed in.

“My wife’s from Alabama, so she’s an Alabamian. Over there, they have something called “chocolate gravy” and it’s a lot better than it sounds…”

Now that’s stuck in my head, so research will follow. Maybe LOOB has a recipe for such a thing…??? He’s tried more strange food combos than any 3-people I know.  Pineapple sandwiches got high marks too.

After a store run (for parts) we will be experimenting with a Black Friday sale Panini Press.  Just what I need – more food!

A further mystery was Texas weather reports.  Hams in this region seemed mystified that there were no clouds anywhere on the weather radar. Yet theh rain was coming down.

Even after I clicked over to the NEXRAD site and determined the Texas regional radar was “Down for Maintenance” and informed the folks, a few people seemed to prefer the miraculous – rain from cloudless sky version.  Ah, the Bible Belt?

Big adventure at our Ark-in-the-Woods was a drain clean-out from a local plumbing outfit.  The plumber (Justin) has been keeping things flowing for 14-years and said he’d never seen such a clogged pipe. 8-inch plug of solids. Looked it up and last time we had the gray water drain line cleaned was almost 15-years ago.

We thought about putting in a grease trap, but were cautioned sometimes they are more trouble than they’re worth.

The right thing to do is to have drains “water jetted” which involves running a pressure-washer type hose with 7-spray heads up the pipe.  Not free (Try $675). But one cleaning at this age might be a one-time purchase.  Which we’ve been thinking about a lot, lately.  Maybe I’ll schedule the second and third jettings. For when I’m 90 and 105… (Am I an optimist or what?)

Off to visit the county offices and pay our annual property taxes.  Which – for 30 acres – and since we are a tree farm, and we’re old, exempted, homesteaded, and such is under $1,000 a year.  Meanwhile, our consigliere was telling us on his visit that people in major cities up in the Northeast are paying as much as $1,000 a month “protection money” (taxes) to local government.

Don’t knock this “downscaling” and Second Arking that we’re into.  When you can keep money in the bank ahead of money going out the door, life’s pretty good and generally stress-free.  If you keep TV news off.

My BP this morning was 122/56.  Much of which is attributable to living in the woods and having a super-low overhead nut to crack monthly.  Try it. You’ll like it. Figure out how to “burn the mortgage” while you’re at it.  It adds years to your life.

Write when you get rich,

George@Ure.net

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George Ure
Amazon Author Page: https://www.amazon.com/George-Ure/e/B0098M3VY8%3Fref=dbs_a_mng_rwt_scns_share UrbanSurvival Bio: https://urbansurvival.com/about-george-ure/
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40 thoughts on “Market Mystery, Data and FedSpeak Warmup”

  1. FOMO you dont Kemmosabe, this pig is going higher and higher. Stagflation is name of the game, somes that Have be doing well, somes that have not are not doing so well..

    WTF — its the 4th Turning and we be approaching DANGER DANGER, Will Robinson.

    Mkt RISK is making me crazy..er. So F that!

    3 MONTH T-Bills are Risk Free..read that again home gamers.. RISK FREE – 3 Month T-Bills are Yielding 5.46% right now.

    DUDE G – 5.46% Risk Free !

    What R U ALL waiting for, Russian nukes to scream overhead on their way to an AFB near you ? Zombie hordes of illegals coming to throw you out of Ure house?
    FUGET ABOUT IT – Does not matta.

    No worries Commercial RE implosion – Da Fed will just quietly remove toxic debt from public mkt with REAL MAGIC made up numbers.

    5.46% risk free, cause NO BTC 4 G, due no interest in future.

    bwhahaaahha

  2. “gang up on Israel”

    The best hope for world peace is the Muslims attacking Israel then Israel blowing themselves up just like they say they will. Cover it all with sand like a cat turd.

    Chernobyl is on the mend.

    “major cities up in the Northeast are paying”

    The North won. Lucky us.

      • Good link.

        People don’t look at the big fractal.

        “A fractal is an object or quantity that displays self-similarity, in a somewhat technical sense, on all scales. The object need not exhibit exactly the same structure at all scales, but the same “type” of structures must appear on all scales.”

        Generally, the folks who support the Sampson Option were probably taught the strategy at home by their mother or father threatening to kill themselves or the entire family if they don’t get their way.

        ‘displays self-similarity’

        “I’ll blow-up the house if you leave me!”

  3. I try to keep my bp in the 130s to 140s otherwise anything below that reads “dead” on the Omron. I run on hydraulics and, this week, I have finally been able to shed the two knee braces I’ve been wearing on the same knee since June. No pain pills required nor ice pack at night. Keeping my fingers crossed as long as it doesn’t hurt too much.

    We’ve got until the end of January to pay the protection money around here otherwise a penalty will be added on to the amount. That means another couple of payments from TRS and SS will hit the bank and it will hurt a bit less. Yeah, I know. It’s a mind game but we all play them, don’t we?

    That Alabama chocolate gravy sounds a lot like the mole (MOL-ay) sauce on Chicken Mole I absolutely HAVE to get whenever we go down to San Antonio and eat at one of the Mi Tierra restaurants down there. The ones in El Mercado are the best ones. Best place in the World for breakfast, too. Then go spend a bundle in their bakery.

    • “Morning commuter traffic lines up on the Long Island Expressway towards the entrance to the Queens Midtown Tunnel into Manhattan on Aug. 15, 2022.”

      Look at that photo.

      Back in the 80’s when I got my first real job, I was on that “Expressway” for the first time in bumper to bumper traffic and I said to myself…

      “This is what people do every day?”

      • I’ve done NYC. The Ike in Chicago is much better. It’s still bumper to bumper, but everybody’s driving 90. I learned big city driving on the Eisenhower, the Kennedy, and the Dan Ryan Expressways, before I ever set Pirelli’s in Detroit, Cleveland, Buffler, or Gotham. The thing I’ll say about “Big city driving” is everybody drives the same way. Once you figure out the local customs, yer good from Dallas to Boston.*

        *Does not apply to smaller cities or State capitols because da country folk come to town, a few at a time, to gawk at the strange creatures and tall buildings, they bring their driving style with them, and refuse to adapt to their current environment.

    • Is this scheisse is edible body paint/covering ? hmmmmmm

      Looks like Im gonna need something to protect the bed linens/pillows and mattress wit –

      ” Oh Sweetie Pie”..

  9. Good column today, as usual, George.

    I’ll skip the rest of the pleasantries and get right down to it. If you’ve been in Texas as long as you have (or anywhere south of the Mason Dixon) and you don’t know about chocolate gravy then you ain’t living been right!

  10. George
    I’m from Alabama and married to an Alabama girl and have a daughter that took 4 semesters of culinary arts in High School, and never heard of Chocolate Gravy.
    I’ll check when I call home tonight to see if anyone is holding out.
    Meanwhile you are correct about the mortgage going away and its effect on BP. At the last Cardiologist visit after ours was paid off, I gave them a 128/58 and the took me off of three meds.
    Meanwhile on the Antenna sorry that didn’t work out, sounded like a good plan.
    And on the Santos mess I like to return to F.D. Rosevelt’s comment about the Somoza’s in Nicaragua: “He’s a Sonofabitch, but he’s Our Sonofabitch.”
    No need to stress over Santos for the next year, his constituents are awake enough now they will take him out next fall.

    BCN
    My Credit Union and my Wifes CU at the hospital are both offering 5.4% savings accounts. Mine is certificates, the hospitals are a high yield account but more liquid. Right there with the Treasury offering.

    • oh my god.. seriously you never heard of chocolate gravy…
      on my.. if I make it I use a real vanilla bean…
      https://southernbite.com/chocolate-gravy/
      we usually just buy it with as much as we go through with the grand kids.
      or on top of toasted custard… I usually like a little caramel sauce on that though ..

  12. “chocolate gravy”
    My filipino friends make something called ‘Chocolate Meat’. Pork with a pork-blood gravy. Something similar? ‘Diniguan’ I believe it is called.

    “Pineapple sandwiches got high marks too.”

    McDonalds in Hawaii years ago actually test marketed the pineapple sandwich. Everyone was confused, thinking it was only the topping, and everyone asked ‘Where’s the burger’. It flopped. Ham and pineapple is a great pizza topping, too.

    Property taxes? My home is assessed at under a quarter mil, and with my ‘senior homestead exemption” my property tax is $200/year. Beat that! And if that’s too stiff a payment, they allow you to make a $100 payment every six months.

    • I hate pineapple on my pizza.. i am a fan of Canadian bacon pizza though..
      now I love pineapple but that’s desert

      • Now being of German descent, I have also put saurkraut on my pizza ! =-)
        (Healthy enzymes, you know.)

      • Last time the volcano ‘blew’ in 2018, I stayed right here at the ranch… five miles (and upwind) of the belching behemoth. Some nights it roared like a 747 throttled up for take-off. Sometimes it shrieked like a banshee, dumping 18 KiloTonnes of sulfur dioxide per day into the atmosphere
        . But I had red skies at night for a couple months here. Madam Pele is not for the faint of heart, but she is my ‘home girl’. Keeps the riff-raff away.

  13. The Dow Jones is setting a new high for the year – but the S&P500 and NASDAQ are down this morning.

    OPEC released a statement this morning that surprise everyone – there was no mention of cutting oil production., which everyone thought they would do in face of the recent drop in prices. Oil per barrel has now dropped $2.14, since the statement was released.

  14. Just google Chocolate Gravy Recipes:

    CHOCOLATE GRAVY
    1 cup granulated sugar
    1/4 cup cocoa powder
    3 tablespoons all-purpose flour
    1/4 teaspoon salt
    2 cups whole milk
    1 tablespoon butter, softened
    1/2 teaspoon vanilla extract
    Served over Warm Biscuits

    • I have never had it over biscuits… I will try it though.. pound cake with whipped frosting and a little drizzled over the top is good

  17. I’m adding meat to my diet and reducing carbs with the goal of moving to a Carnivore Diet. The Carnivore Diet seems to work for some people with auto immune diseases. My rheumatoid arthritis drug has been failing for quite awhile and the experts want me to consider retrying failed drugs. Since the fails have all been spectacular the though of trying them again has been terrifying. There are no new drugs left for me to try. There are reports of 2 possible cures in trials in Australia but they are a long time coming to the US.

    So wish me luck with this Diet. Any pointers would be appreciated if anyone has tried it.

    • When I cut carbs to less than 50 gram a day, my weight loss in amazing. I’ve been experimenting with basic protein and then using the carbs kind of like a constant speed prop adjustment on an airplane. Eat what you are eating now and then just back out carbs and put in leafy greens like cabbage in place of potatoes, wheat, rice, and anything with a high glycimic index.

      Transition slowly, but expect a few days of “keto flue” (and keto poo) as your body transitions into this new world. Might need to cut back on coffee and tea a bit if you get too hyper. Add plenty of water, too.

      Hope the hands are doing well…

      • Thanks George. I like cabbage alot. I have heard some people keep sourcraut in their Carnivore Diet for the healthy prebiotics. So far I’m finding if I eat more meat I don’t snack. I’m just not hungry. Eating high fat is difficult at breakfast. Thanks for the encouragement.

        My left hand is in a cast and I’m scheduled for splints in 3 weeks and pain levels are good. My right hand is amazing. Very functional and I have my sense of touch again. So amazing to go from a fist to a hand that can wave. I’m delighted with it.

        • Yo E,

          The center of everything regards Ure overall Health is in Ure Gut..everything. That being said, sourkrauts (not olaf scholz) are one of best fermented foods 2 consume 4 Ure gut health.
          Here in the great state of Pennsyltucky – generation after generation have been making the kraut in their basements every Winter.
          – 5 gal. clean plastic bucket – layer chopped cabbage and salt (bout 2 teaspoons per paond cabbages), packing it down as you fill the bucket. Packed tight – seal the lid and place next to furnace. Like burying Ure pot of Kimchi over the winter, springtime brings freshly fermented kraut.

          – Just Say No to naked Tubesteaks (hotdogs).

      • At my age.. who in the hell do I have to impress LOL LOL LOL… so I am on a SEE FOOD Diet.. LOL LOL LOL…
        I remember when I was twenty nine or something like that.. I was trying my hardest to look 18 again.. running ten miles a day.. lifting weights.. ( which was ok.. my job required a great deal of lifting so benching three hundred was a plus) doing aerobics etc.. only to discover.. I will never be 18 again.. so if it looks good eat it..

    • Look up Dr. Joel Wallach. His belief is arthritis is caused by a cartilage problem that can be repaired by eating Knox gelatin. His writings explain what illness is being caused by a lack of certain minerals and vitamins.

      His writings have kept me heathy and I’m almost 86.

  18. I could pay my “protection money” today if I wanted to, but I discovered an error in a bill. This has been acknowledged and is being corrected, but that may take a few days. It’s a bit of a conundrum – pay this week or next to avoid penalties, but getting refunds is more dicey than paying as billed. I’ll hold off for a few days and inquire again. I like getting everything done at once, but I don’t want an error against my interests to propagate into the indefinite future. This is one aspect of bureaucracy that’s a bit challenging for those of us that are paperwork impaired. Like George, I much prefer to handle things in person and get real-time receipts with just one interaction per year. One thing I keep in mind is that an unexpected snowstorm or other factor could interfere with timely payment.

  19. “the more you make, they bigger the tax bite.”

    ????…..is that percentage or number…
    my brother makes big money.. has the 6000 square foot house the luxury this and that vacations everywhere further than fifty miles from home etc
    his tax number is higher but I pay a higher percentage of my take home.. he is able to utilize the 50,000 pages of tax laws to reduce what he pays.
    so that is totally dependent on your position in the pyramid of the economic society.
    I believe that it’s also why DJT didn’t want to disclose his tax forms.. he showed what ten grand a year income everything was in the business. I had employers that had their airplanes million dollar campers and homes cars etc. all in the business. hospitals do the same buy homes vacation condos etc. all as a write off..
    heck change your name to Brandon.. and you don’t even have to claim any of it lol..
    they usually go after the guy that makes the least..they can’t fight it. lol lol lol.. what’s that old saying…

    https://www.ultimate-leadership-training.co.uk/shit-rolls-downhill.html#:~:text=teams%20I%20lead.-,I%20believe%20the%20%E2%80%9CShit%20rolls%20downhill%E2%80%9D%20expression%20originally%20came%20from,it%20down%20to%20their%20team.

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