A novel thought has crossed my mind while looking at the data – and particularly in retooling our “trading Golem” this week.
Not completely original – since the idea is there in some of Didier Sornette’s work (see Why Stock Markets Crash: Critical Events in Complex Financial Systems ). But, so far as I know, there’s been little longer-term cycle study.
Arcane? Maybe…but that’s on the agenda as well as laying out a research plan after we roll through the few headlines worth mentioning.
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George, I was looking at the 140 day marker for this Ukrainian school shooting on Wednesday, Oct 17.
140 days prior was May 30, 2018. There was a school shooting in Santa Fe, Texas on May 18.
Just for the record, 140 days from Oct. 17 is March 6, 2019.
My question to you is, does this pattern apply to specific types of disturbances, like how these are similar? Or would the Guatemala volcano disaster on June 5 be a closer match to the date?
Or coincidence. (I’ve seen so many synchronicities lately, I can’t keep track.)
Thanks,
Phil
The deal isn’t that there are mass-shooting events 134-146 days apart.
Given this timespace, there’ll be 6-12 incidents in the U.S. that’re classified as “mass-shooting events” by the CDC; there will also be a couple-dozen that are not in the U.S., and many more that are not noticed.
The pattern George noticed is that every 9-11 weeks, one of these events will gain prominence (and several days of broadcast coverage) with the news networks. The real oddities with George’s 140-day observation are:
1. Why does one incident gain prominence over others?
2. The “140 day clock” goes back for many YEARS… Why?
The answer to #1 is sometimes obvious, like Vegas, and sometimes not. The answer to #2 is the real puzzle…
Since 1950, the S&P 500 has produced annualized returns of -41.24% from October 22nd through October 27th. That spans all of next week.
https://stockcharts.com/articles/chartwatchers/2018/10/sector-relative-performance-suggesting-caution-not-bear-market.html
My 2c… I don’t think crash timing is predictable in todays world. The fact is the Eurodollar market broke in ’08-’10 & has never been fixed (it’s in such a mess the central banks can’t get a handle on it) & if there is a squeeze on collateral, everything goes; way way worse than ’08. So I don;l think anyone can tell when this goes because there is no precedent. At least we can see central banks turning off the easy money tap & this is having the expected effect but an actual crash… impossible to say when if you ask me as we are in uncharted territory.
To add to that, automation has had an effect. Look at the levels last week that were automatic sells for CTAs once we closed under them as they lightened up their %longs per strategy (no human nature, no ebb & flow, just massive automated selling). Does/ can Elliot account for a wall of automated orders like this? Human nature & the nature of the markets are not as similar as they once were. As far as I can see Elliot looks great in hindsight but doesn’t look to be to be of any use at all for the here & now (path gets changed/ updated/ reinterpreted every day). Maybe I’m missing something big here. To me, the trendlines look good, it’s these & the price action at such areas that can give you an idea of what’s going on in the short term. The 17 week MA is a good bellweather of where we’re actually at in the longer term if you ask me. Has proven itself thus far.
No other developed nation comes close:
For those that can do math, there were 1624 mass murders in 1870 days (as of 2/15/2018). Not every 140 days, but every 1.15 days!
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2017/oct/02/america-mass-shootings-gun-violence
You’re going to have to learn to read. The 140 days is a cycle of incidents, not # per day. GTFU and read before going lib on us