Jobs and Trade: Warring Business Models

We will get to the jobs data in a minute, but first a quick discussion of trade since Trump has stuck his foot into dangerous waters.  As we’ve said before, what set up the failure of Hoover (1, Trump could be #2) was his messing with trade and tariffs in the late 1920’s.  See if this doesn’t sound like Trump:

“Hoover was a leader in the Efficiency Movement, which held that every institution public and private was riddled with unsuspected inefficiencies. They all could be improved by experts who could identify the problems and solve them. He also believed in the importance of volunteerism and of the role of individuals in society and the economy.”

We see the Draining Swamp as being akin to this – a rough historical echo – of the efficiency movement.

(Continues below)


Not that it’s a sin…hell, it may be a huge benefit.  But the tinkering with foreign trade via tariffs is like trying to bake a cake with nitroglycerin.  Might work, might not.

China holds a HUGE amount of US Treasury bonds.  They, in many ways, are the only reason we can keep America in business.

The Treasury sells the bonds to China, which parcels them out to banks, which mix in grey money from places like drug cartels, and then the money is used to buy up American real estate.  We are borrowing away the country.

This is what we describe as a long-chain business model.  In other words, it’s absolutely true, but there are enough cut-outs and long enough time-scales, that average people never become aware that forensic economics is a profession.   Folks can’t begin to understand it because it’s not predigested for them by the agenda-driven MSM.

Trade is (write this down somewhere) “War Between National Business Models.

Readings on point?  Global stocks slip on Trump’s new trade salvo, traders await U.S. jobs report and China says will fight back ‘at any cost’ against U.S. trade tariffs.

Pay particular attention to the New York Times piece, too: Trump Doubles Down on Potential Trade War With China.

The International Trade deficit and needing some fresh business model stimulus in America is driving this.

And sure, you don’t think there’s a business model angle to The Wall project?

OK, Jobs

Just out from the Labor Department:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment edged up by 103,000 in March, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in manufacturing, health care, and mining.

Household Survey Data

In March, the unemployment rate was 4.1 percent for the sixth consecutive month, and the number of unemployed persons, at 6.6 million, changed little.

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (3.7 percent), adult women (3.7 percent), teenagers (13.5 percent), Whites (3.6 percent), Blacks (6.9 percent), Asians (3.1 percent), and Hispanics (5.1 percent) showed little or
no change in March. “

Now for our drill-down:

  • Labor participation rate is key:  Improved a 10th to 62.9%.
  • Goods producing was up 15,000.
  • And of the 103,000 jobs claimed, 65,000 were estimated into existence in the CES Birth-Death Model.

Also on jobs: Small Business Hiring Rebounds in March, According to CBIZ Small Business Employment Index.

Pruitt: Swamp Draining Nightmare

As long as we’re on business models this morning, there are a couple that are being attacked by the Trump administration that deserve mention.

First note the reshuffle at EPA.  Scott Pruitt’s job in jeopardy amid expanding ethics issues is not the real story, despite how it’s positioned in the Washington Post.  Ditto Job changes for EPA officials who questioned Scott Pruitt,

Refreshingly, a CNN commentary got it right: ”  Many on the left love government regulations and hate anyone who tears them down, as Pruitt has successfully done at EPA. ”

On travel and more security?  Given the YouTube shooting by a woman, Iranian-born, liberal, yada,.yada,, it would make sense for anyone, but especially an on-point Swamp drainer – to be extra careful about security.

Again:  It’s all about Business Models

Regardless of the East Coast Liberal bias that spins everything into a political context (because that’s all them can think about) the reality is that most news stories like this first batch is about business models and nothing more.

Trade?  US has run out of things to monetize – especially with Pruitt taking down the runaway regulators of the deep state.

Jobs?  We don’t have enough…

Swamp?  It’s terribly evident that with just a tiny bit of thinking that owning an issue means owning the business model first.  Like Obama did for climate as an Illinois state senator.  Got the business model set with carbon exchanging and then rolled on.

That roll included paying mostly for studies that jiggered data and supported the “climate change” narrative.  People don’t give up their (wrong-headed) business models easily.  How long did we know smoking was bad, for example?

Facing Down Facebook.

Not only EU says Facebook confirmed data of 2.7 million Europeans ‘improperly shared’ but add to that, FB is reportedly using a software tool that lets them “disappear” emails from Zuke Markerberg.  Uh-hu…see Facebook messages from Mark Zuckerberg secretly removed from users’ inboxes.

The Useless Department (TUD)

This is our dustbin of news stories that make us wonder what people put into their heads:

Justin Timberlake reunites with Super Bowl ‘selfie kid’.

Dwayne Johnson explains Vin Diesel feud.

Birkin bag maker Hermes expands manufacturing with new French workshop.

Male Democrat accused of using Colorado Senate’s women’s restroom ‘multiple times’.  Wait, did they say democrat? Don’t they say bathroom choice is a right or something?  Color me confused…still.

And then there’s this lil gem: Romanian ‘dead man’ to go court again to prove he’s alive.

With that, :45 before the open, futures are still down 212 on the Dow, but here lately the market has become too unpredictable, so I’m in cash for a while till the world comes to its senses.  Could be a long wait, year, total get that…

See you Monday, or for Peoplenomics subscribers tomorrow.  Have a new business idea to kick around…

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George Ure
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24 thoughts on “Jobs and Trade: Warring Business Models”

  1. Ah, trade wars! 19th Century Prussian general and military historian Carl Von Clausewitz is famously quoted as saying “war is policy by other means.” Trade is also integral to national policy. So using simple logic, if T = P and W = P, then T = W (where T is trade, P is policy and W is war). Clausewitz might just as easily and accurately have stated ‘trade is war by other means’). After all, a nation’s economy is officially considered part of a nation’s critical infrastructure, meaning it is vital to national well being and survival. Point being, Trump, China and likely Putin’s Russia may have set policies lurking behind their respective trade rhetoric. Evidence is gelling that globalism is an enemy of the super-nationalist trade state. Unfortunately, trade and economics are the glue that bind globalist agreements. Initiate superpower trade wars and you weaken the globalist bonds. Weaken globalism and you strengthen the nationalist super-states. I think there may be a tacit gentle(wo)men’s agreement between the mega-states to pull back from the G-8/G-20 agreements and stop the recent epidemic of global market madness that one can argue are weakening the economies of the super-states. In a traditionalist, nationalist sort of way, Trump’s trade rhetoric is genuinely ‘patriotic’ – i.e. “having or expressing devotion to and vigorous support for one’s country.” At this delicate point in human history, I see nothing wrong with that particular approach.

    • Ummm… non pilots shouldn’t do videos. You would break the wings off with that kind of landing excerpt that such maneuvers are limited to a small fraction of MGTOW (max gross take off weight). Even in our Beech, we know we could not land with all the fuel we took off with… sheesh…

  2. “tinkering with foreign trade via tariffs is like trying to bake a cake with nitroglycerin.”

    I love it George. Where do you come up with these things :-)

  3. Also, China has a near monopoly on Rare Earth metals. Look up where they are used. If they cut us off, that completely cahnges the game.

  4. As weird as this is, do everyone in your family a favor, and buy up as many pairs of shoes as possible, and flip flops also. Stay neutral, no weird colors. I think shoes will become unaffordable in the near future.


    ALL-TIME HIGH: JAN. 26, 2018 26616.71




    L-O-O-K O-U-T B-E-L-O-W ! ! ! ! ! ! !

    ******CRASH WARNING!!!*****

  6. Could this be part of the equation that “Warhammer” just mentioned ?
    “H.R.5404 – To define the dollar as a fixed weight of gold.”

  7. Re: facebook. I hope little idiot Zeke Markerburg (as u call him) is jobless & bankrupt soon. Not only did a story come out recently about facebook tracking even NON-users all over the web & all of us researchees get the privilege to wait for the facebook icon to load on every single page – NOW THIS:
    WTF gives facebook the grandiosity to think it needs everyone’s medical data too?? I knew to never signup for such BS.

  8. “In March, the unemployment rate was 4.1 percent for the sixth consecutive month, and the number of unemployed persons, at 6.6 million, changed little.”

    My question is this. does that number reflect those that are on unemployment and those that aren’t on unemployment.. or just those that are on the books as unemployed.. I have always wondered if so many of the people are never on the books because they aren’t a written statistic. technically the year we went without an income we were not on the books as unemployed.

    • We are not on the books after unemployment ends. We drop off. We only go back on if we get employed.

    • If you are looking for work you are counted as in the active pool. If you have given up you don’t exist and they don’t care because it would show the extent of the rot. No income and looking – you are counted in pool. No income and aren’t looking – you are invisible to the count. They goal seek all of the numbers that’s why you see reports that are 3 and 4 standard deviations off – that is in this day and age impossible to be that far out of wack.

      • If they were being totally honest they would report only those with full-time jobs that can actually support oneself/family on the wage. Most of this jobs gain nonsense is part time minimum wage – also if you are having to work 2 or 3 jobs to make ends meet – they count that as 3 people…….

    • thanks.. I was curious how that worked exactly. around here what corporations do.. unless you are in a seasonal position where they let you go for the winter weather.. ( two seasons, construction and winter) employers do everything they can to not pay unemployment. Usually they will cut hours till you have no choice but to quit. I have seen people cut to one day a week or cut them so they come in but only work an hour then sent home. I worked for one where they just didn’t give the paychecks out or made every excuse to not pay them..
      The one we depend on now is doing just that. Not paying paychecks you technically have a job but how long can you hold out without any pay. the others will lay off. what we were told a few years ago was if you are let go.. ( no matter what the reason or you quit you cannot get unemployment..) this sucks big time.. during that time in a three block area there was six that I know of. the affect that had was a local company was down about twenty five grand for the year. One friend of mine went to the oil fields .. that was quite a bit like day labor you line up and wait to be picked to work.. he waited six weeks then came home to see his family for the weekend.. when he got back they told him that he had to start back at the beginning.
      so I was curious if you didn’t get unemployment at all were you still considered unemployed on the books.
      We learned another thing.. the give away programs well they aren’t available if you have a car or a house. we were told that that is considered income. a car ten years or newer is new enough to sell so is a house you really have to be destitute to get it.. also living wage is basically your tax deduction divided by twelve. if you have any of that you cannot or will not get any assistance at all. at least that is how it is here. I have heard there are states where you can get unlimited loans, homes and thousands of dollars a month through their state giveaway programs without even having a job or any collateral, just not here even with the give away programs for single mothers they only get it for three months around the birth then you are off of them. if you have children then you get medical for the kids and food stamps.

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