The price of homes has been holding steadily higher, in the Case-Shiller/S&P numbers just out. But will the latest numbers be enough to get the Fed to back down rates a bit?
YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 5.5% annual gain in December, up from a 5.0% rise in the previous month. The 10-City Composite showed an increase of 7.0%, up from a 6.3% increase in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 6.1%, up from a 5.4% increase in the previous month. San Diego reported the highest year-over-year gain among the 20 cities with an 8.8% increase in December, followed by Los Angeles and Detroit, each with an 8.3% increase. Portland showed a 0.3% increase this month, holding the lowest rank after reporting the smallest year-over-year growth.”
The closer-in data is likely more key to Fed thinking:
MONTH-OVER-MONTH
The U.S. National Index showed a continued decrease of 0.4%, while the 20-City Composite and 10- City Composite posted 0.3% and 0.2% month-over-month decreases respectively in December. After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index, the 20-City Composite, and the 10-City Composite all posted month-over-month increases of 0.2%.
ANALYSIS
“U.S. home prices faced significant headwinds in the fourth quarter of 2023,” says Brian D. Luke, Head of Commodities, Real & Digital Assets at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “However, on a seasonally adjusted
basis, the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices continued its streak of seven consecutive record highs in 2023. Ten of 20 markets beat prior records, with San Diego registering an 8.9% gain and Las Vegas the fastest rising market in December, after accounting for seasonal impacts.”
“2023 U.S. housing gains haven’t followed such a synchronous pattern since the COVID housing boom. The term ‘a rising tide lifts all boats’ seems appropriate given broad-based performance in the U.S. housing sector. All 20 markets reported yearly gains for the first time this year, with four markets rising over 8%. Portland eked out a positive annual gain after 11 months of declines. Regionally, the Midwest and Northeast both experienced the greatest annual appreciation with 6.7%.”
Around here, our focus tends to be on the absolute prices chart, as the way to keep our thinking straight.
After the Housing numbers, the market – as expected – was setting up for a rally today. So, the crazy man will consider shorting in the Lunch Money Trading account around the close if the rally looks strong enough.
Write when you get rich,
George@Ure.net
RIP Mr. Munger
Off topic, but for those interested ‘Chart Watchers’ who may have missed it yesterday…
ABSOLUTELY NO FINANCIAL ADVICE GIVEN OR INTENDED.
I believe I’m witnessing the end of an era, now that Charlie is gone.
I trade fractals, so if you pull up the last 3 urls simultaneously on your computer screen you might guess where I’m currently positioning my US equity trades.
Good luck to us all this summer.
Don’t write when you get poor.
(substitute /B for /A, mox nix!)
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BRK/A&p=W&st=1994-01-01&en=2024-03-01&id=p45474089252&a=416779259&listNum=1
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BRK/A&p=W&st=2018-01-01&en=2024-03-01&id=p45474089252&a=416779259&listNum=1
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BRK/A&p=D&st=2022-01-01&en=2024-03-01&id=p45474089252&a=416779259&listNum=1
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BRK/A&p=D&st=2023-08-01&en=2024-03-01&id=p45474089252&a=416779259&listNum=1
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All at once, now…
https://news.cqg.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/kicker3.png
https://cdn2.etrade.net/1/23112015070.0/aempros/content/dam/etrade/retail/en_US/images/knowledge/library/perspectives/daily-insights/2023_11_20_AT_Chart2_PLCE_M.png
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BRK/B&p=D&st=2023-08-01&en=2024-03-01&id=p45474089252&a=416779259&listNum=1
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PS. If it happened once, it can happen again. “US 10 Year Treasury Bond Note Yield reached an all time high of 15.82 in September of 1981. “
Those were the days.
I had a little 10K CD that was paying my rent with the interest.
Substitute brains for foolish fractals; Nancy and Paul Pelosi’s stock bet on Nvidia was doubled (study the companies, not the wave patterns)
https://www.capitoltrades.com/articles/political-gains-in-nvidia-s-semiconductor-surge-pelosi-making-fortune-2024-02-22#
Unusual Whales supports banning Congress from trading, they beat the SPY!!
https://unusualwhales.com/politics
I knew a guy.. he was a hog farmer…. he married a senators daughter.. and ended up wealthier than anyone can imagine.. he was in congress and had information.. so.. does anyone else assume that maybe its because of the information they knew from congress..
In our world it is called a sure thing bet to follow their stock trades.. always follow those in the know..
I happened to get my Notice of Assessment/Taxable Value in the mail yesterday. .gov says the house went up 5% in taxable value over the previous assessment year.
I’m in MI.
“The taxable value is calculated by multiplying the previous years taxable value times the Consumer Price Index or 5%, whichever is less.”
Every year the taxable goes up the maximum.
we got ours a week or so ago.. it doubled last year.. and next year it is going up another thirty percent…
Natural gas is going to make a five percent increase and electricity is going up seven percent… I don’t know how much water is going up but .. I believe that it is going up again to.. so far Water is our biggest bill.. seems no one two hundred years ago thought that there would ever be repairs.. so no contingency fund.. they didn’t want to pay in the extra half a buck for repairs.. ( oh no.. that sounds just like our government today.. lets give it all to other countries.. and hope that we never ever will need any repairs.)
We were told at the electric company annual meeting last night that .. the cost of trucks.. alone.. has doubled since the present administration got into office.. they are now a half a million dollars a piece and with his no coal pushing.. the cost to generate electricity has gone up..
You know it .. I brought up solar towers.. yup.. a fifty year rant had to be brought up LOL… the response was.. Government regulations won’t allow them..
and that we should expect brown outs due to the fragility of the grid at this time..
In MI the ‘Proposal A’ rule is property tax can’t go up more than 5% a year but when sold the values are reset on the next buyer so property taxes go up significantly.
That’s the dilemma of selling. If I sell and buy the house up the block property taxes are going to double or triple from what I pay now. I could get an exact figure by looking at the millage table. Sigh.
I guess living on an active volcano is not a highly taxable area. Still makes me grin when my tax bill comes. Despite ‘valuations’, I pay the minimum administrative fee of $200/year. It is good to be an ‘old fart’ holding my own fort as a “Senior Homestead Exemption”. Seems Hawaii has always taken care of it’s elder Kupuna.
And Ure had to remind me that my TurboTax comes in the mail today. Break out the annual tax file folder, throw out the junk, and let the software generate 1040SE to tell Uncle that I owe him nothing. Life is good, living in the cheap lane without having to do a Schedule C anymore.
sHEEE-IT! I’m at 72 pages and haven’t even started the sched c year….I gotta retire.
“sHEEE-IT!Im at 72 pages and haven’t even started sched c year”
Putting the Value of Ure Time at ?
No wonder youse don’t “get” Bitcoin and hear I thought it was a medication thing..hmmm.
You know, I took your advice to heart. Paid up home, no debt, minimal expenses. I mothballed the consulting business with zero income there so no Sched. C. I still file the State Excise tax forms with “Zero income” to keep the license active if I ever want to use it again. Before retirement I worked my butt off to maximize income and SS payout. I live off that and a Hearst pension too small to be taxable, so technically I’m a ‘poverty’ case. But as Andy says, “I’m rich”. Oh, yeah, I don’t trade, either.
So right here & now is where you REALLY earn your lunch money in paperwork. Been there, done that.
(“You know, I took your advice to heart. Paid up home, “)
the lady in charge of the senior citizens dinner and I was talking last night.. she has to move..
the cost of the taxes and rate increases across the board are now more than she receives in her retirement and at almost ninety she cannot afford to stay in her paid off home.. which I can totally relate to.. taxes alone is half of what I get per month and the rate increases and insurane has it more than what I get in retirement..
I had thought about dropping all the car insurances.. and home owners insurance.. that would save us about two grand right there.. Insurance is just a gamble anyway.. so should I.. just dump it all.. cancel all the policies.. and hope there isn’t any storms.. it isn’t as if an insurance company is in the business of helping.. we already know what has happened to anyone that has been in a disaster.. they don’t pay and if they do its like a penny on the dollar..
Got my refund a week ago. Life is good.
Right after Biden sanctions Russia again … this happens …
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-bans-gasoline-exports-6-months-march-1-2024-02-27/
Coincidence? I think not.
Kind of like when the police road rashed a night shift nurse because she called her kids to make sure they were up and ready for school in LA LOL LOL..
That made it to shift reports clear up in to the wastelands LOL LOL….
the two officers beat her up dragged her on the gravel slammed her in the car and then high fived each other for their good deed.. yup she was white.. one of those white supremists..
had a busy night with gun shot victims.. and gang violence.. then to have that done because she had to work late..
everyone says.. god that was stupid.. wouldn’t want to be an LA officer right now.. oh your shot.. go to exam room eighty LOL we will be in as soon as we can..
Yup they orderd me to do a rectal exam..just in case that bullet is a thumper LOL
LOOB,
I wish to thank you for posting that link to the PDF of “America Against America” last week.
I had read it many years ago but had forgotten about it until the Economist mentioned it in a column last week and thought “I need to read that again”.
Anyway went out and downloaded the book at your link, converted it and sent it to my Kindle since that is easier for me to read than on a computer screen, and have dived back in. Going to be interesting to read it again now 30+ years after it was written and see how accurate it has proven to be.
Of course what makes that book even more interesting now that even back then is that the author is now one of the 7 people at the top of the heap of the CCP (he wasn’t high up back when he visited the US and when he wrote it) and is now the CCP’s chief ideology and propagandist person.
Again … thank you for the link last week
you are very welcome for that.. that is exactly what I do to.. the wife cringes when I buy another book.. she wants to park in the garage.. so the only way I get books now is kindle once in a while I will see a must have.. and then face the wrath of the boss.. the presidential libraries have downloads for books.. and diaries their transcripts.. and just about every college in the world has books.. I hit the libraries often..the only one I cannot access is .. YALE… I can get the card catalogue but not the books in their library.. if I see one I like I usually go to Harvard or BYU..Stanford etc… England colleges everything is available.. so are all the books in other countries to..
Every year I give thanks to Howard Jarvis and Prop 13, the one thing Kalifornia has got right in the last 50 years.
on the topic of acccount settlement,
i spoke with THE DUDE and The Elders.
both of them said to the effect,
This is the Defining moment for humanity. This isnt just about you Andy. is it better to right or good? Let him be right, you cant have everything you want.
take the hit and chose the good path. Cowboy up. make the choice. settle the account. Choose the path and Humanity will follow suit.
so i thought about it. and i thought even the worst of them have a little good in them and the best of them have a little bad in them. only a very small amount are truly evil. Big Good, little evil. Most people are good.
George said to me, “That is a Big loss”.
George was right in saying that. and. it cost me,
$124,800 over 3 years of tax free perdium. and $374,400 in wages job over 3 years. that job was a 3 year contract.
fucking ouch! when is the last time you took a hit like that? that knocked me down good.
last night a dark force entered my room. it pointed out, it was George who spoke my great loss into existance. $124,800 over 3 years of tax free perdium. and $374,400 in wages job over 3 years. it was a 3 year contract. it whispered, you have a right to be angry. that was a new house for you and your family. it was freedom. a podcast, a website, fortune and fame. it whispered, say the word, and exact your revenge. how could he be your friend and take all that from you? he took it from your family. he took everything. you are in the right. you are justified!
and felt it, hard.
and then i thought, everything on the news, social media and all around in this world is conditioning everyone, Me! Me! Me! get mine! whatever it takes! Grind! Hustle! lie, cheat and steal! knock down anyone who gets in your way.
then i took a knee and spoke to THE DUDE and said, I Trust you Lord above all. Grany George the same mercy and grace you have shown me. let not a hair on his head, nor his property, or family be harmed. When it is Georges time to go, let him pass, natrually and gently, into the most beautiful dream.
The Dark force left me.
it was quiet, then i heard the Voice of THE DUDE.
THE DUDE replied, you have chose wisely, nothing else will be taken from you. it will be as you have chose. the account and matter is settled.
Had you chose another path, Brother would turn against Brother, Mother against Child, Friend against freind, Child against Father, the entire world against itself until only a few thousand remained on earth.
now, I dont know if ya ever took a hit like that ever in your life George, then got back up and said, your right, then took a knee and asked The Creator to grant the person mercy, grace and protection? but it takes more strength to do that than be like everyone else in the world.
when we met many many years ago, the first thing you said to me.was,
no harm, no foul.
so today, i speak them to you.
no harm, no foul.
George was right,
and I choose the path of prosperity for humanity. i chose to not sin in my anger. and by doing so,
it is my understanding that anyone who opposes prosperity for humanity going forward will be blotted out via what is known as the “mandella effect.” including those who attempt a US power grid take down.
Lord Jacob Rothchild said in 2017, The New World order is in jepordy. He was right. and plan for a new world order, died with him.
Humanity will not be united though deception, munipulation, domination, fear, control, disease and famin.
Humanity WILL be united though an age of renisaunce and prosperity.
Humanity is tired of all these over played doom semerios. its time now for a renesaunce of material prosperity and spiritual development. they earned it.
when i spoke to The Elders. and told them my choices.
the Elders said, everthing we know about you about your coming and going here through out the ages, is true. Only the best of luck to you Andy, on your journey forward.
i said, gosh i dont feel that important or that big of deal. most of the time i feel like a bumblimg idiot.
The Eldest said, you always say that. its one of the signs, and how we know you are who you are. when the call went out, you are the only one who entered the circle. we knew as it has always been, only the true and good would enter the circle.
even beings from the stars far above sing songs and have stories about one who is cloaked in the magesty of a rainbow.
i said yeah that whole rainbow thing was pretty weird.
She laughed and said The choice was yours Andy and yours alone. As it has been many many times through out the ages to make. when it came time to choose?
what you just did? it changes everything.
i said so the matter and all accounts are settled?
The Eldest replied, Yes. to the effect ~ Love Covers a multitude of sins. ~
i laughed and said, dont hand me no lines and keep your hands to yourself young lady.
i could feel Her smile.
on a personal note:
i almost died earlier.
i got on the edge of a 500 foot cliff. the bank gave way on my passenger side, the two story house size tonka truck im driving on the mountain, fully loaded, 100 tons, sunk and shifted so that the passenger side (13 foot tires) were off the ground and outside my drivers side window i could see straight down the cliff side. i stopped. one more inch and over i would have went to certain death.
everyone at work had that, “oh shit!!!” moment.
The wind blew hard, it was white out conditions, i sat for a moment with all the warning buzzers going off in the cab. i could feel deaths cold hand grab a hold of the base of my spine, fear shot up it amd accross my mind like a million lighting bolts.
Flashes of the Ranchers wife saying to me, “I thought you died.” the Nurses words in my recent physical, “Do you have a will, sir?” i thought were the tall shimmering translucent beings in my NDEs wrong??? Did i tell everyone i loved them? i have plans and hopes and dreams just like everyone!
it felt like Death was the beast in the Preditors movies and was gping to rip my spine out, skull and all, like some kind of trophy.
i had made my choice, for the betterment of humanity and because that is who i am! and this is it! Checkmate, Times up! Game Over!
i thought i was going to puke. i opened the widow of my cap to breath.
i couldnt get out of the Tonka without falling off the cliff. The D8 Dozer and The Shovel started heading over to rescue me.
i closed my eyes, took a deep breath, quieted my mind…
then smiled and said Hello Death! Not today!
I reached in my pocket, grabbed a quarter out that the Angles left on my pillow, flipped it out the window, laughed and said,
Rich Me!
Extended Play!
Im still here. The sun came out. its a beautiful day.
lol lol well I brought up the solar towers and the answer I got is at least a little better than I normally get.. it’s against government guidelines lol lol
“When the game ends, pawns and kings return to the same box” (Italian proverb)
you see the chain of events right?
i landed that 3 year job. i was going to start a new life and settle down in one place. i said good by. you said, “That is a Huge loss. :-(” i called you, you asked. i reluctantly told you. and hour later the job went off the site, the contact i had phone, email, facebook etc got hacked, (still havent heard from them) the place i had to stay said i couldnt land there, and the means to get there was erased. all in an hour. you were right, it was a Huge loss. how big, well now you know.
i wasnt sure what happend. then the dark presence came to me, revealed the chain of events and tempted me.
i took a knee, prayed for you, your property and family. anyways. i let it go.
THE DUDE and THE ELDERS said, I chose wisely. it changed everything. They also said because of my choice, nothing else would be taken from me.
the very next morning. i almost died on the mountain, falling off a 500 foot cliff. i really thought, this is it. checkmate! times up! game over!
but i didnt die. im still here. so THE DUDE and The Elders were correct, because they said, “nothing else will be taken from you.” not even my life.
that is the chain of events.
you of all people George, know words have power. espcially with people like us.
very powerful lessons here. taught me alot about THE DUDE, The Elders, Me and how m7ch those of us who are ummm “different than the norm”, affect things on a much grander scale.
now, all is well, life is good. something new will present it self to me. causality…. ya know.
the account and matter is now settled.
To keep things clear, my reference to “That’s huge a loss” was to this community of souls here, because part and parcel of “the move” was the ending of all posts here as you would (understandably) not have time. That would be a huge loss. Wrapped up in this, however, is the odd fact that in many ways this human and God-centered group around here has an odd way of acting like a kind of “local power or instrument” of DUDE. Never really understood how it works. but upon reading that “…and hour later the job went off the site, the contact i had phone, email, facebook etc got hacked, (still havent heard from them) the place i had to stay said i couldnt land there, and the means to get there was erased. all in an hour. you were right, it was a Huge loss. how big, well now you know.”
The hairs stood up. If this was the “real deal” for Andy, why wouldn’t they follow up with the most expert big loads union card guy I can think of?
Oddly, I was called (don’t know how to put this into words, exactly) to share a search on “Wind Farm Job Scams” and sure enough, lots of ’em. https://www.google.com/search?q=wind+farm+job+scam#ip=1
Not to say this was darkness working an appeal to your wallet, but it is sure interesting as hell.
And yeah – we’re all glad you are still posting and have the time to spend with DUDE.
Electric vehicles are being (slowly) found out, not to be the “silver bullet” solution and there’s a growing number of reports that Wind Farms are merely another environmental scam, a way to funnel public money into the private holdings of rich people in certain political subdivisions.
I know electricity, as does Hank and WmofRR, and I think its safe to imagine that we all see HUGE technical issues not just voltage matching, but also power factor matching to something as variable as wind at scale. Something in Denmark (hopefully not my relatives) stinks.
You saw Apple just dumped its EV program?
There’s a book on Amazon – The Wind Farm Scam – came out back in 2009. https://amzn.to/3IhFHK4
Like the author of that (prescient) book, Truth can take a while to surface. I am shocked the structured payoffs in the climate arena have lasted as long as they have. But I’m used to being right, yet having to wait a dozen years (and longer) to be “right in the end.”
You may remember, I railed against social media in 2006 (and later) on Peoplenomics. Yet the horror of social media as a tool to overthrow the honestly elected government of this great land will only BEGIN to surface this fall when the Michael Benz book (Weapons of Mass Deletion) comes out. Believe me, if Urban and Peoplenomics had relied on social, this would all have been censored and deplatformed to death, long ago. As it all comes out, how social media was seized and weaponized to not only defeat Donald Trump, but also to perpetuate the fiction of mail-in, unverified voting, will come too late for the coming damage Nov. 5th of this year to be undone.
I digress, but back to point.
We (the community here) has not suffered the huge loss, which would be your absence. We will be keenly interested if the “missing people” remain missing.
In a way, we’re all gathered, cheering sections for one another, in a world going progressively insane.
The reconciliation of that account is still to come.
be safe – and both hands on the wheel!
In time youse all will come to the realization that google et al ARE an ENEMY to mankind…personally think google Employees ought to be shot DEAD in the Streets, now, All of em, till there is no more.
See google works/cia/dia darkstate.” Deepstate” is a sugar coating of the darkness that is the recently deceased “ Mr Burns” empire..I would say “good riddance”, put he left behind a lil snake in own image, just like grigory soreass and david did..keeping in mind it’s the young venomous snakes that tend 2 over produce venom when biting their next unwary victims.
“ mean as a snake” ..let me introduce to you the meanest mofo in Central America..Bothrops Atrox. https://reptile-database.reptarium.cz/species?genus=Bothrops&species=atrox – comparatively speaking these guys are puppy dogs whose company I would prefer over a Mr Burns” any day.
What’s Ure “dragons” name ?
Auspicious or Diabolical?
What color? White, Black, Dark Green, Red..
What you don’t even believe in Puff the Magic Dragon, but are SURE “ the Flying Spaghetti Monster is real.
Can’t make this shit up..Nucking Futz!
Job offers that sound too good to be true usually are, or involve one way tickets to war zones, or worse.
35 years ago I had a coworker come wagging in a 7 year contract which was the job opportunity of a lifetime, at least until I explained the contract to him. It was an old style Euro indentured service contract to a very bad place. He would have never collected. Read the fine print before you sign an employment contract.