As we expected, the importance of housing continues to remain in the fore thanks to CV-19. Toss in low interesting rates and you get a report like this morning’s S&P Case-Shiller update:
S&P CORELOGIC CASE-SHILLER INDEX REPORTS 4.3% ANNUAL HOME PRICE GAIN IN JUNE
YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 4.3% annual gain in June, no change from the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 2.8%, down from 3.0% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 3.5% year-over-year gain, down from 3.6% in the previous month.
Phoenix, Seattle and Tampa continued to report the highest year-over-year gains among the 19 cities (excluding Detroit) in June. Phoenix led the way with a 9.0% year-over-year price increase, followed by Seattle with a 6.5% increase and Tampa with a 5.9% increase. Five of the 19 cities reported higher price increases in the year ending June 2020 versus the year ending May 2020.
MONTH-OVER-MONTH
The National Index posted a 0.6% month-over-month increase, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites posted increases of 0.1% and 0.2% respectively before seasonal adjustment in June. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 0.2%, while the 10City Composite posted a decrease of 0.1% and the 20-City Composite did not post any gains. In June, 16 of 19 cities (excluding Detroit) reported increases before seasonal adjustment, while 12 of the 19 cities reported increases after seasonal adjustment.
ANALYSIS
“Housing prices were stable in June,” says Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director and Global Head of Index Investment Strategy at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “The National Composite Index rose by 4.3% in June 2020, as it had also done in May (June’s growth was slightly lower in the 10- and 20-City Composites, which were up 2.8% and 3.5%, respectively). More data will be required to understand whether the market resumes its previous path of accelerating prices, continues to decelerate, or remains stable. That said, it’s important to bear in mind that deceleration is quite different from an environment in which prices actually fall.
“June’s gains were quite broad-based. Prices increased in all 19 cities for which we have data, accelerating in five of them. Phoenix retains the top spot for the 13th consecutive month, with a gain of 9.0% for June. Home prices in Seattle rose by 6.5%, followed by Tampa at 5.9% and Charlotte at 5.7%. As has been the case for the last several months, prices were particularly strong in the Southeast and West, and comparatively weak in the Midwest and (especially) Northeast.”
You can see, in the prices chart some interesting things:
At this point, I’d offer one of those “good news – bad news” remarks.
The good news is the annual rate of increase is 4.3%
The bad news is the annual rate of monetary inflation is well over 30%. Still, housing is better leverage than none, especially if you can low-down and afford the monthlies and know enough to keep an eye on CV-19 property tax and school heists to come…
time to lift rates
Let’s dig up Paul Volcker. If anything’s worth doing you ought to do it right.
Unless it’s a low low low fixed rate most will end up being bag holders again. I’ve heard of Urban Dwellers buying in the suburbs and the defaulting on the City mortgage. Raise rates doubtful they are doing everything they can to keep this thing together with rates where they are – they can talk a good game about letting inflation run hot but if they let the bond market price that risk they are screwed. They’ll freak the velocity of money is crashing it will be more of the same til it all comes down.
drop rates ? 12 more years
Who profits most from panic flight to the suburbs? Answer: R. & D. developers and realtors. Who bites the bullet for defaulted urban real estate? Answer: Taxpayers. The looting is out of control.