Just out from Case-Shiller/S&P/CoreLogic:
“NEW YORK, MAY 28, 2019 – S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for March 2019 shows that the rate of home price increases across the U.S. has continued to slow.”
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 3.7% annual gain in March, down from 3.9% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 2.3%, down from 2.5% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 2.7% year-over-year gain, down from 3.0% in the previous month.
Las Vegas, Phoenix and Tampa reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities. In March, Las Vegas led the way with an 8.2% year-over-year price increase, followed by Phoenix with a 6.1% increase, and Tampa with a 5.3% increase. Four of the 20 cities reported greater price increases in the year ending March 2019 versus the year ending February 2019. “
Before seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 0.6% in March. The 10-City and 20-City Composites both reported 0.7% increases for the month. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index recorded a 0.3% month-over-month increase in March. The 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted 0.1% month-over-month increases. In March, 19 of 20 cities reported increases before seasonal adjustment, while 14 of 20 cities reported increases after seasonal adjustment.
“Home price gains continue to slow,” says David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “The patterns seen in the last year or more continue: year-over-year price gains in most cities are consistently shrinking. Double-digit annual gains have vanished. The largest annual gain was 8.2% in Las Vegas; one year ago, Seattle had a 13% gain. In this report, Seattle prices are up only 1.6%. The 20-City Composite dropped from 6.7% to 2.7% annual gains over the last year as well. “
We will offer the usual caveat on the above price data: First, these are prices paid but remember that there are real estate deal costs on the way in and out, so factor 5% spread for those.
The other caveat is to be sure to consider the effects of inflation. If you look at the money sup0ply numbers, you will see the Fed is printing about 2-3% mpore than last year so if you see real estate prices up this much, on a pujrchadsing-power basis, it may be a break-even.
After the data, Dow increases fell back to +18 on the futures side…
Oh, and if you remember our recent admonishments about a possible “double top” in the stock market as being a possibility, see what the peaks look like in the housing chart, too… just saying…
OK, back to the garden… moron the ‘morrow…