Here’s When the UKR War Ends. Housing Data

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Fascinating historically based rambling-tale of a pseudo-academic logician’s thought processes kicks off today. Sudo apt-get install, shall we?

From the top, then.  The Vietnam War ended on April 30, 1975.  Using this point alone, long wave economics can offer us AMAZING insight into the future of global conflicts. Including a couple of windows for the Ukraine war to end.

(We’ll reduce this to sound bites for you – otherwise no one will be able to follow along.)

The work of Nicholas (Nikolai) Kondratieff (also Wiki-spelled Kondratiev) discovered a long-term cycle of 54-years (varying little) that could be traced back to early Scandanavian steel-making from the 1100s.

A note from my consigliere overnight reminded me that America is about due for a “54-year replay” in domestic politics.  Which (doing easy pencil work) turns out 54 years from 2022 gets us back to the 1968 Democrat Convention in Chicago.  Anyone besides me remember the Chicago Seven Trial? Yeah, sure, we can see how another Democrats acting like Children could happen, sure.

The main point of his “client memo” was to point out that every 54-years, MASSIVE political change takes place globally, such that we can see a relationship (offset) of 54-year economic cycles from the separate and distinct political cycles when the data in inspected closely.  “Say whaa?”

For example, the Big Political Uprising 54-years prior to the Chicago Convention mess was the shooting of Archduke Ferdinand which kicked-off World War I in 1914.  (There’s a little slack in the cycles work – it’s a central tendency of data, not a laser-guided microsurgery on a femtosecond basis.)

“Wait!  How’s Ukraine Fit in?”

(My God, you’re impatient…let me ramble a bit.  I did (as the Western novel writers say) “shot the sheriff on the front page” of this morning’s report.)

“WTF?”

Go back to what I said first damn thing:

  • “The Vietnam War ended on April 30, 1975”

Then I hinted to expect… what?

  • “Big Political Uprising 54-years.”

Which MEANS?  To Ure’s Crazy, money-driven by environment wreckers and resource depleter’s view of the world:  UKRAINE MAY BE RUSSIA’S VIETNAM.

Reductionism Now Runs Amuck

The Vietnam War began on November 1, 1955.  Which means it lasted how many years?   75 minus 55…come on, help a brother along.

20-years plus or minus a year or two.  Given the Russian-Ukraine war started February 24th this year.  Which means what?

The obvious (clockwork world reductionism)  answer says if we date the Ukraine War from when things went to hell in a handbasket (“November 2004 – December 2004: Orange Revolution Overturns Flawed Election”) with Western-back insurrection, we ought to be able to add 20-years to that and estimate that the war will end in 2024.

OR, we date from 1975 – and tack on 54 years to that date – which gets us an end date of 2029 for the Ukraine War.

The problem with this latter date is that most of our readership will not survive long enough to see Ure’s prospects come to pass.  That’s because in the Great Scheme of Time, we’ll be dropping like flies in the 2024-2026 light up of World War III.

But do remember when the balloons go up, you’ll at least have a clue what you’ll be missing.

“I’m Skeptical”

I don’t blame you.  Young, wet behind the ears children won’t remember anti-war protests in full swing 54-years ago.  Like the Bank of America burning in Isla Vista back in 1970.  Hell, I remember covering it in one of my on-air newscasts back then (sheesh – is Ure old, huh?)

This was followed by a parade of Hollywood peeps like Jane Fonda *(who became known as Hanoi Jane) who protested the war and divided America which is like we’re going through right now – today – at similar levels.  See how smart our consigliere is on his 54-year shot clock game?

Does Russia play out with a divided populace like we did during ‘Nam?  Read how Russian pop star’s war criticism stirs vigorous debate | AP News and tell me there’s not a rhyme?

Second point:  I remember in one of my commentaries (this was circa 1974, or so) decrying the devolution of War reporting into a sequence of baseball-like line scores.

In the Russia rhyme off Vietnam, how about Russian military death toll in Ukraine rises to 54,810 (ukrinform.net) and here we are in about the third inning of this if it runs to 2024.  Top of the first inning if tracking to 2029.

Oh, don’t give up on the 54-year count as being just a flash in the pan, advises counsel.  Because 54-years before 1914 we run into this event called the Civil (it wasn’t) War.  He continues…

“I went back out to look at 54 years BEFORE the US Civil War wrt both Europe and the US, which was a period during the times of the Napoleonic Wars …. and voila, 1806 was when the 1000-year-old Holy Roman Empire collapsed (defeated by Napoleon).

Back further, we had the Chickasaw Wars one cycle earlier – one of 9 large wars in 1762.  The slop in the calendar aside, we finger instead of 1698 the 1700 Great Northern War where everyone in Europe seemed to be fighting everyone else.  Tsars, Kings, Queens…  This gets us to 1644 but we’ll role with 1645 as our slop shot:

The Cretan War, also known as the War of Candia or the Fifth Ottoman–Venetian War, was a conflict between the Republic of Venice and her allies against the Ottoman Empire and the Barbary States, because it was largely fought over the island of Crete, Venice’s largest and richest overseas holding…

If you’re not seeing it yet, you may be a cretin.  Which is not really an insult, coming from the “Swiss French dialectical term crestin” which means Christian (and loosely human).

Ure Republic In Crisis

In the event you forgot, America is not a democracy.  We are (or are supposed to be) a democratic Republic (for which it stands, yada, yada…).  Just not for long, at the current rate.  Daily Forensics follow:

Of COURSE he’s a Democrat!  Texas sheriff investigating DeSantis’ role in flying migrants to Martha’s Vineyard.  And of course Politico would highlight it.

If Slow Joe decides to go, things will be Gruesome: Gavin Newsom Is ‘Unequivocally’ Running for President in 2024 if Biden Doesn’t.  This guy is a HUGE Asset Stripper.  See, when California has more income than expected, Gruesome gave it to the poor instead of paying down some of the state’s near $4 trillion of bond debt.  Just like homeowners can asset strip, so can bureaucrats anxious to fund pay-off projects to loyalists.

Did this guy figure this out all by himself? The world is in ‘great peril,’ U.N. chief warns global leaders.  We’re thinking there should be (in place of news on the tube), a daily report called “No Shit Sherlock.”  Which would focus on unassisted obviousness for the masses.

That Idiot Biden King of Walk Back – even more than the late Michael Jackson Moonwalking slide:  Health experts dismayed by President Biden’s view that the pandemic is over: ‘Hell no — not even close. Perilously close to what we told you Monday.  About the disease, not the idjit.

People to Watch in 2024: Haley endorses Sununu, Bolduc; heading to New Hampshire this week to join them on campaign trail.

About That Housing Data?

Truth of the matter is?  I cheat.  Instead of spending a day reading deeply into the tea leaves of real estate gurus, I just look at commodity pricing of Lumber.  Have a look for yourself.

Did I miss the memo walking back Sloppy Joe’s big Housing Initiative?  Just kidding – this was better than expected:

Building Permits
Privately?owned housing units authorized by building permits in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,517,000. This is 10.0 percent below the revised July rate of 1,685,000 and is 14.4 percent below the August 2021 rate of 1,772,000. Single?family authorizations in August were at a rate of 899,000; this is 3.5 percent below the revised July figure of 932,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 571,000 in August.
Housing Starts
Privately?owned housing starts in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,575,000. This is 12.2 percent (±14.9 percent)* above the revised July estimate of 1,404,000, but is 0.1 percent (±9.6 percent)* below the August 2021 rate of 1,576,000. Single?family housing starts in August were at a rate of 935,000; this is 3.4 percent (±10.1 percent)* above the revised July figure of 904,000. The August rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 621,000.
Housing Completions
Privately owned housing completions in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,342,000. This is 5.4 percent (±12.1 percent)* below the revised July estimate of 1,419,000, but is 3.1 percent (±10.5 percent)* above the August 2021 rate of 1,302,000.

After the number, Dow futures were down almost 200 – so no good news in sight for the market, save our rally before the Fed (buy rumor, sell news looms tomorrow).

The Fed meeting gaveling in this morning has left the stock market in a quandary.  How bad will things be after the rate hike announcement tomorrow afternoon?

Our Replaying 1929 model offers hope of a small gain going into the close today.  In a statistically perfect world, today’s  rally  would be about 329.1627 points.  That would come this afternoon, since yesterday was an A wave and we need a short pause before higher, lol.  (Not trading advice, for entertainment porpoises only, and thanks for all the fish!)

Off to work on tomorrow’s Peoplenomics® which is all about rising financial disparities in American governance.

Write when you get rich,

George@Ure.net

64 thoughts on “Here’s When the UKR War Ends. Housing Data”

  3. “Did this guy figure this out all by himself? The world is in ‘great peril,’ U.N. chief warns global leaders. ”

    It becomes pretty obvious if they take their head out of their AZZ for a minute..
    https://www.redbubble.com/i/t-shirt/Stupid-people-are-like-glow-sticks-I-want-to-snap-them-and-shake-them-until-the-light-comes-on-by-JOKERX94/56309140.IJ6L0?country_code=US&gclid=EAIaIQobChMIrPibk8Gj-gIViylMCh1TOgM2EAQYBCABEgK9a_D_BwE&gclsrc=aw.ds#&gid=1&pid=1

    t-shirts like that are becoming pretty popular.. I bought two of them LOL

  4. Zzzzzzzzzzz

    Controlled opposition or still fast asleep at the wheel.- it’s no wonder wandering around in da weeds. The vicious nasty cycle that U, yes you goyboyz,need to understand is the schitma 7 year cycle – U know the one where every seven years the dark nasties “fling down/throw down” the goys..Perhaps the Canadian “namestealer” has a more accurate translation of “throw down”.. suppress much?

    Go as far back in history as you please – it’s there, it’s ugly and they chose to be this way…2001=tower card/2008 Storm card/2015 Moon card/Sun card. WTF does tarot have to do with Planet Earth/Humans- this is the devils playbook/handbook. They chose it.
    2001-twin towers/2008 Lehman bro thrown down”/2015 – muzie immigration EU/2022 -sun card Decodes.

    Anti semite ?
    pivot please
    No , pro Life.

    *Ben ben was/is not coronation stone. If it was Chucky would be dead radiation poisoning. Coronation stone is known as Jacobs Stone, supposedly Irish branch of Danites(lost tribe) brought it over with them..tuatha de d______n

  5. “UKRAINE MAY BE RUSSIA’S VIETNAM.”
    Yep, Vlad (and his successors) are in for a long hard slog.
    How reliable was the data Nick K was using going back to the 1100’s? GI,GO. Plus, he was hopelessly Eurocentric. What about what may have been going on in the other 90% of the world? Just because something happens in Europe doesn’t make it a “global” event.
    Ol’ Vlad’s not looking too good. I suspect he’ll be “taken ill” any day now. Anything can happen in the Defenestration Nation.

    • Actually, in the period between when China shelved admiral Zhou’s fleet of Chinese ships and burned them when they turned inward in 1491 to the mid 1800’s there was little outside of Europe and the Med that mattered worth a shit in global economics..Barbary on north and from half of Russia to England.

      As for the data sets, Europeans used bible pages at the back (blank) to record crop and commodity prices going back to the 1100s to there is a written record, notwithstanding any jiggering the Church did with actual historical dating methods to add 300 years of history into modern though/.

      See Fomenko’s work on Eu’s Churches alt. history – his books are a clue to more here than meets the eye, even though he was a revisionist Russian-centric academic.

      • “…there was little outside of Europe and the Med that mattered worth a shit in global economics….”
        that we know of.
        I doubt that Chinese famines and Indian market panics made much of a ripple in the Eurozone’s “news” of the day. Certainly nothing in anything that could be considered real time to figure into Nick’s analysis.

  6. 2029 for the war to end?? Sorry George, but none of the parties to the war will be anywhere near solvent by 2029 – in fact, the EU will lucky to be solvent by the end of 2022 and the US end of 2023!

    Yes, solvency is definitely necessary to pay for weapons, ammo, fuel, medical supplies, and the myriad of logistics to keep a modern war going. Things don’t magically appear on a battlefield.

    The storm has not quite hit yet, we are just feeling the outer bands of the gathering financial/economic storm. Military members are not exceptional – they eat off the same supply chain as you and I. Yes, we may be headed for global war, but the Ukraine war will be a blip on the radar when the shit really hits the fan. It’s surprising how perspectives change when folks are hungry and in the case of the the EU and the northern US, VERY cold.

  7. A laxidasical day for prep as Doctor scheduled colonoscopy for Sept 21, Wednesday before noon.
    Next cystoscopy scheduled for early in the new year. I’ve got a toss up on which is more fun, but the Doctors tell how screening for potentials is good.
    Not my first rodeo; have hope will not find anything more than easy to remove polyp(s), and maybe banding a hemorrhoid.
    Now back to Ure regularly scheduled commentary.

    • Not long ago, I read about a hospital “system” that was somehow spreading infections in their patients and it came down to improper cleaning of the colonoscopy gear. Perfectly healthy patients went in for the test and came out with infections….as I recall a few died.
      There’s a “virtual” colonoscopy where you still have to thoroughly clean your colon out prior, but they have a device that inflates your colon rather than jamming the instrument up your wazoo.
      My doc hasn’t bugged me to get a colonoscopy, but I guarantee you I wouldn’t let them stick that thing up me!
      https://www.latimes.com/science/la-xpm-2013-jun-07-la-sci-sn-dirty-colonoscopy-20130607-story.html

    • Maybe I missed something in the translation here – why are your poop issues on this forum? Asking for a friend.

      • May be my fault – did a column years ago on how my doc wanted me to get one and I said if you will do it without demanding I sign waivers. I don’t do waivers except in death bed situations.
        And then the chorus piped in… and piped…and…

  8. Mr. Ure, Brilliant insight on the various “channels” within the Kontratieff Cycle. It’s always about the hysteresis. Master hysteresis and you are dialed in [to the trend(s)].

  9. Oh yeah on channels within the Kontratieff Cycle, Powell has now just created the old wall street saw “three steps and a stumble” and introduced steroids. Things should lose more air going into October.

  10. I believe that Afghanistan was Russia’s Vietnam.
    The war in the Ukraine ‘ends’ when the whole mess goes nuclear.

  11. Well Damn! There goes another idea. First years back I had an idea for a show I called Bum Fights. About a week later YouTube opens a channel. Now sitting on my keister another idea gets missed. George comes up with “No Shit Sherlock”. Sure to be a hit. Actually mine was for a news commentary channel I called “No Shit Dick Tracy, Where’d You Park Your Squad Car.”
    Oh well, better luck next time.
    Stay safe. 73

  12. Good conflict analogy.

    Yesterday some posters mentioned moving illegals is illegal and they might be right!

    The mention of 1975 and I thought, there’s a K-Wave to when Republican presidents are impeached. And gas lines.

    Nixon was impeached then stood down.
    50 years later +/- Trump, by surprise was impeached but didn’t stand down, his impeachment wave truncated. This should mean the next Republican president who gets impeached will be jailed at the least.

    Now, if the presidential impeachment wave extends, like a commodity 5th wave, the then next Republican president may be hanged.

    At this point all we see in terms of Republican lawbreakers is DeSantis for illegally tampering with illegals. Republicans are usually typing about lampposts. There may be a candidate right in front of us.

    The illegals web of illegals is complex.

    • “Yesterday some posters mentioned moving illegals is illegal and they might be right!”

      Moving illegals without their permission MIGHT be illegal, unless the Governor of the State in question declares that his State is suffering an invasion (as Mr. Abbott is about to do.) Abbott and DeSantis get permission from the illegals before they ship them anywhere. Did the folks in Chitown or MV? My little birdies tell me “no.”

      Nixon was not impeached…

      • There’s a sheriff somewhere in TX investigating DeSantis for transporting the illegals. The sheriff thinks transporting may have been illegal. The sheriff supports yesterday’s UrSu comment.

        In terms of Elliot, Nixon was the beginning of a large 5 wave sequence.

        Nixon was the “I” wave.
        Trump a truncated “III” wave.
        The next Republican completes the wave of larger degree in the sequence which could be an extended “(I)”.

        That would then put the West at the end of an I circle. Nuclear annihilation… or humanity is saved by space aliens.

        Nixon changed the economic system so the wave begins with him. The time from 1913 to Nixon was a wave. The time from the Civil War to 1913 was a wave. Andrew Jackson to the Civil War was a wave.

      • I don’t see where DeSantis stands a chance here legally. He shipped illegals from Texas, not Florida, so the defense of suffering an invasion does not apply does it? He used the excuse that illegals in Texas sometimes end up in Florida…but that’s a weak argument. In a court of law…that’s hearsay or assertion without substantiating evidence.

      • Although a couple of days old I have to agree with Mark here.

        Not only did the Illegals NOT come from Florida but the “Marketing Materials” put together to “induce” them to climb on the plane were flat out LIES. LIES that the person who put together the documents KNEW to be LIES.

        Now I will concede that DeSantis probably did NOT personally approve those marketing materials and in fact was probably NOT aware of them … but that hasn’t helped the untold senior execs of multi-level marketing firms the years who have been convicted of CRIMINAL behavior for the LYING materials put together by subordinates wrt inducing people into their multi -level marketing schemes.

        WHY DeSantis took a short cut to getting those people onto that plane I have no idea … I am sure he could have found illegals in Florida, particularly Haitians, who would have willingly climbed on that plane(s) to go to Martha’s Vineyard and done it without LIES in the marketing materials.

        PURE LAZINESS on the part of DeSantis and those working for him is the most logical answer … but who really knows when you are dealing with a person who really, I mean Really, I mean REALLY, wants to be President.

        (any “thinking” person, even the lowest level person on the staff who worked on this, “IF” they had ANY intelligence at all would have instantly known that those “Marketing Materials” would be examined closely after the fact – maybe, just maybe, DeSantis is NOT surrounded by people who actually “think”, they are just robot drones?)

        DeSantis may actually have some troubles with his stunt. Personally I think it was great in it’s concept and something like it needed to be done, but the execution of it stunk to high heaven and the way it was executed may actually have been illegal.

        OH … btw if there are any ILLEGALS to come into my area in reality the BEST ONES are probably be the Venezuelans!! Hard workers who now HATE Socialism!! NOT the type looking for a handout. Other than their illegal status exactly the type of person you WANT to be in the US. (unlike our local 100,000+- Somalis who want more More MORE from the government all the time … who generate a real crime problems … oh most were NOT even from the urbanized part of Somalia, they were so backward when they arrived they didn’t even know what toilets were for [man do I have many MULTIPLE tales on that issue!!] with NO mechanical skills AT ALL … unlike the very very mechanically sophisticated illegal Mexicans who are an immediate benefit to the local economy when they arrive)

    • well the Governor Ron says,,,

      DeSantis just laid the smackdown on Biden and the media:

      “When Biden is flying these people all over the fruited plain in the middle of the night I didn’t hear a peep out of those people…I haven’t heard a peep about all the people that have been told by Biden you can just come in and they’re being abused by the cartels, they’re drowning in the Rio Grande.
      I heard no outrage about any of that…I didn’t hear any outrage about all the fentanyl that’s crossed the border.
      The only thing I hear them getting upset about is you have 50 that end up in Martha’s Vineyard then they get really upset.” ???

      https://twitter.com/GovRonDeSantis/status/1572262443744886786?s=19

      OUT OF WORK STEVE, yes you are ,, but did you even stop to think WHO is creating the conditions and the means to herd the human population around the globe to destabilize the 3rd world countries, and get the people to want to move, as the globalists create war and famine and disease-via vaccines. WHO did you say the bastards are? WEF Globalists like Gates and Fauci and Claus Schwab and cant forget Sorass

      Trump wins, he has a HUGE winning percentage with the candidates he backs, few have lost And Trump will be the Republican candadate and will will 2024, with a big IF,,, if there is an election then,, things are that bad and there still looms a military correction as this current white house occupants are under China’s control.
      I personally think that Trump has been in communication with ‘patriots’ in uniform since JFK’s assassination or there abouts,, forming ‘Q’ the power of 3 6 9 #
      Q is less than 10, 3 non military
      9 is less than 10 9-3=6 3,6,9
      The military knows all, but are sworn to US Constitution and serve the office of the president. They know and see the evil that has upsurped the ‘We the People Constitution’ and the patriots have formed a plan, that would take time to developed and execute. They brought in Trump. By using the office under Trump, actions have been set in motion, legally without a coup, not counting the demons’ coup against a sitting president, using the FBI/DOJ to LIE and falsify evidence against him. That is treason that will get them hung
      Gitmo does the hanging and which so called president do you think will claim to be Kenyan,,, time is drawing quite close, watch Durham, Igor Danchenko will roll on Killary’s old friend Charles Dolan. And Killdog’s campaign manager already confessed on the witness stand that she know Russia Russia Russia was a lie and she OK’ed it

      • “Trump wins, he has a HUGE winning percentage with the candidates he backs,”

        Trump will never win…..
        More than 159 million Americans voted in 2020: 159,633,396 to be exact. That’s the largest total voter turnout in U.S. history and the first time more than 140 million people voted. Voter turnout in 2020 was the highest in 120 years when measured as a percentage of the voting-eligible population: 66.7 percent. You have to go back all the way to 1900 to find a higher percentage turnout (73.7 percent). The election of 1876 holds the record for highest turnout: 82.6 percent. That, of course, was also one of America’s most controversial and consequential election.
        then it was four years of twenty four hour a day Trump bashing.. I personally don’t think they will allow him to win..

      • Other Brother….
        Oh Brother. ?
        Maybe you are on to something with that lack of outrage on the fentanyl theory…looks like some of it leaked into your drinking water.

      • More than 159 million Americans voted in 2020: 159,633,396 to be exact. That’s the largest total voter turnout in U.S. history and the first time more than 140 million people voted. Voter turnout in 2020 was the highest in 120 years when measured as a percentage of the voting-eligible population: 66.7 percent.

        Um, the eligible voters numbered less than 152 million.

        159 million of 152 million voters voted. That is 104.6% of eligible voters — a truly impressive turnout…

        Aliens, legal or otherwise, are not eligible to vote.

        Children, unless they turn 18 before Election Day, are not eligible to vote.

        Convicts, whether current or past, are not eligible to vote.

        There were an estimated 315 million people in the United States (and its territories) in 2020.

        Please, do the damn’ math and quit copying propaganda from agenda-driven sites.

  13. 1968 it wasn’t just in the US that Political Conflict was taking place:

    Russia RE-invaded Czechoslovakia

    Riots in France … the rioteers tore up the paving stones in the streets of Paris, ala 1789, to build street barricades and fought pitched battles with the police (after which France PAVED OVER with blacktop those old paving stones when they relaid them so never again could they be used to build street barricade)

    Riots in the other major cities of France

    Riots in Italy too

    Even disturbances in Japan if I recall correctly … though the Japanese being so polite we here wouldn’t call them “riots”

    Here in the US city after city, at least in the Midwest, the East Coast, and LA had massive riots (race riots) where blocks upon blocks of buildings were burned down … to say nothing of the assassination of MLK and RFK which also occured

    Worldwide everybody seemed to be on a strange drug that made them want to go out and create HUGE political chaos

    1806 … Holy Roman Empire collapses (most small city states in Europe disappear as a result and the final consolidation of other small enclaves into larger countries begins in earnest)
    1860 – the Beginning of the US Civil War (considered the first modern War) with the blocking of ships from resupplying the Forts in Charlestown (the firing on Ft. Sumpter would come later)
    1914 – WW1 began
    1968 – Riots around the world and Russia Re-invading Czechoslovakia
    2022 – Ukraine War started … China /Taiwan waiting in the wings

    YEP … 54 years for massive Political Changes (which sometimes involve War, sometimes NOT, but does involve massive Political Change) seems to coming right on schedule.

    Major War now coming?
    The breakup of Russia into several different countries coming?
    The breakup of the United States into several different countries coming?
    NATO to break up?
    China to remake the map of the Western Pacific coming?
    China to break apart into several different countries coming?

    Impossible to tell at the moment which of the above, or several of the above, may happen but imo the Pandora’s Box of POLITICAL CHAOS has now been opened right when the callendar said it would be opened.

      • Those were the years my Dad was in the Canadian Foresters Corp.
        In both World War 1 (WW1) and World War 2 (WW2) the Canadian government formed the Canadian Forestry Corps (CFC), in answer to the British government’s request for overseas woodsmen to cover a workforce shortage in Britain.

      • WW2 fits in with the “Half Cycle” convention:

        WW2 began in earnest at the end of May 1940 with the invasion of the low countries and France … until then it was called the False War since nobody except the Poles fought with the invasion of Poland in Sept 1939. The physical 1/2 cycle convention would be 27 years, but when it comes to cycles of that length one always has give a +- range, and 1 year is considered normal.

        May 1940 was 26 years after the beginning of WW1 which is within the expected +- 1 range of 27 years

        Roll forward to 1968 and you have now moved forward 28 years … again within the expected +- 1 year range of 27 years … and adding those two 1/2 cycle events together you are precisely back on the 54 years cycle of the BIGGER cycle.

        Big events do not always happen during the 1/2 cycle timing, but they can and often do. (in any case WW2 imo – at least in Europe – was merely a continuation of WW1 just with a delay, trying to continue the battles of WW 1 and to resolve problems from WW1’s very beginning that were NOT resolved during the original round of fighting so it makes perfect sense that it would pop up at the 1/2 cycle point).

        The 54 year cycle does NOT indicate ending points for the Political Changes that occur … it just indicates the BEGINNING point.

        As an example look at how long it took the impact of the Dissolution of the Holy Roman Empire to play out wrt the dissolution of European City States and mergers of small entities into bigger entitites … decades, but you would expect the dissolution of something of that political, and yes military, power that had existed for 1000 years to play out over an extended period of time, not in just 3 to 5 years. (Same way it took 300+ years for the American Indians to finally be displaced, defeated and pushed into near “prison camps”)

  14. We’ve had three “Vietnams” to my view.
    One was Korea, one was Vietnam itself, and the third was arguably Afghanistan. All three share several features. (The proof is left to the student.)

    This word just in: Pooty-Poot, and his minister of war — or whatever he’s called, are doing a Big Address to the country (Russia) tonight. Allowing for time zones, this will be sometime in the next few hours.

    I suggested to my lovely and endlessly patient wife that she not go into work on Saturday (24th). and hang around the ranch that day. She poo-pooed my “Vibe” and said she’ll go in the shop Saturday, anyway.

    She’s probably right. The vast preponderance of probability is on her side, not mine.

    My prognostications are almost always ridiculous and way wrong.

    73
    7.299 by day, 3.999 by night.

    • Because ‘commoners’ have the common sense to move around. Damn parade attention and goose stepping miles in sync does not bode well for old bodies. In the military they constantly reminded us not to lock our knees while standing at parade, lest we black out and keel over.

      • Goose-stepping probably not so bad. Standing at attention with knees locked will start dropping people at about 20 minutes. In marching band, the director taught us how to stand at attention with bent knees, and that was when I was 14…

  17. 54 years from 1806 is 1752,not 1762.

    The better question is:What will bring down Biden in 2023 to keep the 50 year cycle going with Grant having Credit Mobilier in 1873,Harding with Teapot Dome in 1923,and Nixon with Watergate in 1973?

  18. Rumor is Putin to give a speech.

    The may be his warning to the citizens of the West before it goes nuclear.

  19. Newsom is another WEF- trained Young Global Leaders graduate. It makes sense that he would run(and win) in 2024, to help the US (as Trudeau is doing in Canada) move forward the Great Reset agenda.

  20. Chris Marcus’ interview with Tom Luongo was just posted on YT. Marcus’ deadpan stare is hilarious but along about the 13:58 mark Tom has some interesting things to say. His final thought is very to the point of websites like this as well.
    “I just had a long talk with a member of the Canadian Conservative Party – I got news for you Justin Trudeau is likely not long for this life and Canada is going through the exact same banking revolution that we’re going through. The Canadian banks and the Canadian Central Bank are saying “You know what Trudeau? – NO!”

    Tom Luongo: Here’s how far the Fed will hike, & how gold & silver respond
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R_2urB8B8dI

    It could make an interesting event for the 24th coming up.

  21. Bolduc(R) is a kook and a liar. he’s going to lose by 10+ points at least and that’s to weak hassan. the republican base should be ashamed for nominating bolduc as their candidate. but they have no shame or they or intent to win otherwise the republican base wouldn’t have chosen geoff diehl in mass. sununu ain’t that bright, nice guy with good intentions, but if he didn’t carry his surname he would be running an auto dealer or building contractor. the republican base is choosing fringe kooks.

    • Lets see…Leftists strategically…and cynically….cross party lines to support a republican candidate during a primary. And then you suggest that *republicans* should feel shame for that candidate’s election success.

      https://www.newsweek.com/democrats-propel-magas-don-bolduc-victory-over-mitch-mcconnells-morse-1742578

      Mendacity from a liberal is nothing new. So your gas-lighting is not surprising. But, you misread this audience if you think you can get away with such deceit here.

      If any *shame* is due an owing for the current political landscape in this country, it should be felt by you and the other gormless baizuos who voted for President House Plant. The depredations of the last two years are all on *your* shoulders.

    • You know, Len, I believe you did. Lots of folks thing theirs was Afghanistan – but that’s just b een an international gang banbg victim state with drugs to go.

    • Ukraine is looking far more costly to NATO, the US, and the R’s than any previous proxy war. Put!n is being forced to call up reserves to avoid committing his frontline western front defensive troops. The R casualty figures I have seen are already higher than our Vietnam totals. The amounts of war materials in play from all parties are simply staggering. The cost in both war materials and lives is looking more like the sequel to WWII than Vietnam.
      Without UN poll supervision, the “vote” being held this week in the Eastern Ukraine provinces resembles a Stalinist era farce. Militarism begats despotism, at home and abroad. Morality takes a back seat to ethnic, religious political control as well as profit for the corporate brown shirts. And you say, who are you talking about? Answer- Take your pick.

  23. Oregon Apologizes for ‘Fuck the Mormons’ Chant During BYU Game

    The University of Oregon has issued an apology to Brigham Young University (BYU) after a large section of their students began chanting “Fuck the Mormons” during their game on Saturday. “Religious bigotry alive and celebrated in Oregon,” Utah Governor Spencer Cox wrote in a tweet captioning the video of the offensive chant.

    https://www.breitbart.com/sports/2022/09/18/oregon-apologizes-for-fck-the-mormons-chant-during-byu-game/

    WTF…?

  24. A Top Russian Official Quoted The Book Of Revelation To Describe What Will Soon Happen To America

    The Russians continue to threaten us with nuclear annihilation. Why are so few people in the western world alarmed by this: “And then the Western nations will not be able to sit in their clean homes, laughing at how they carefully weaken Russia by proxy. Everything will be on fire around them. Their people will harvest their grief in full. The land will be on fire and the concrete will melt,” Medvedev wrote, before citing a Bible verse from Revelations 9:18.

    http://endoftheamericandream.com/a-top-russian-official-quoted-the-book-of-revelation-to-describe-what-will-soon-happen-to-america/

    • Already done…they direct connect himmars – live eyes on the ground complete with gps data on all equipment/force concentrations/depots..
      Russia wrote new laws voted and enacted. Tween Sun zooming in hard this fall and US/naziNATO satellite systems vulnerability to Ruskin H/K satellites – we prolly be in the dark soon.. at least by Midterms. No more Dominion downloads DURING election vote count on it.

  26. Vietnam ended when every adult in America personally knew someone who had died in Vietnam.

    Logically, the vaxxing program should have ended when every adult knew someone who had suffered side effects or died from the vaxx. But today the propaganda and mind control is just too effective. Which means most of the herd is going over the cliff before things change.

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