Reader Note: This is just one aspect of a more complex discussion about “How the Future Gets Here” that’s in prep for our Peoplenomics.com subscribers tomorrow. But, since the Economic Fractalist figures we may have a few days left before the fractal math goes critical on us, a prediction worth considering, we will share a bit more than usual about our (admittedly) odd thinking processes.
The Future on Rails
Remember our warning some time back – in our December 25 column UrbanSurvival 2022: War Year? The part where we warned quite specifically:
“Odds are rising the “hot word” of 2022 will be “NSNW.” As if Covid 19 was not enough of a context scapegoat for financial markets, the odds are seen growing that the “next step” along the path will be war. Possibly of the NSNW sort.”
Welcome to Ure’s world. As this morning we see out of Pravda that Russia considers revisiting Soviet Barguzin missile carrying trains (pravda.ru). These are adaptable systems. They can be used as NSNW platforms or for ICBM/strategic launch.
(How The Future Gets Here)
Won’t go through the whole litany here (that’s for the high-rollers with $40-bucks to subscribe crowd) but let’s say the future is semi predictable.
We can also [very roughly] divide how it gets here into long-term and short-term aspects.
A long-term prediction, while interesting and useful for governmental level (glacial speed) society planning, it’s useless from a specific investment standpoint UNLESS it spots a mega-mania, like Bitcoin and the Crypto Craze in the delivery room.
A short-term prediction is more generally useful (to the masses).
So, our focus (on Urban) is more on the “What tumblers are falling right now in the big lock of Future.
High Level on Global War
There are two obvious and one very suspect Global War STI’s (*short-term-indicators) we’re enthralled with:
- The plans of Chinese to retake Taiwan.
Which will make the U.S. a “techno-bitch” of the Chinese – even more than we already are. The Chinese have been patiently waiting (no interrupting an adversary while they are injuring themselves) a task innumerate governance and social media are almost totally wrapped up with.
- The plans of Russia to reestablish a Buffer Zone between themselves and the megalomanias of the European Union. Who have – at least since 2014 – have spoken of plans to extend the EU from “Portugal to Vladivostok.”
- Then there’s the Bioweapon. Although governments are unable to admit to the Mengele-like Gain of Function reality, recent Fauci data dumps make a compelling case that there’s been a several decades Lab War to evolve new and improved ways to kill-off specific people. Your ACE2’s may vary.
Where Finance Fits
Long-time contributor (the Economic Fractalist) has offered some new remarks on timing – specifically as they relate to the 24th of this month. Which is why we are very concerned about the economic Coriolis effect that may paralyze America in the next month.
You may wish to study his comments here. but one especially juicy part offered is this:
“”Black Monday 24 Jan 2022
A 65 trillion dollar equivalent property bubble in China is past its peak valuation and will wreck havoc on the population’s predominant investment vehicle. Evergrande, already with a 90 % devaluation over the last year is following an 8 November 2021 to Black Monday 24 January 2022 decay fractal series of 9/24/23 days :: y/2.5y/2.5y. The Shanghai property index is following a 30 July 2021 to Black Monday 24 January 2022 22/46/56 day ::x/2x/2.5 xy decay series terminating in a 17//(12/29 =40) day 56 day third subfractal and a terminal 30 December 2020 3/8/8 day :: x/2.5x/2.5y 3 phase decay fractal series.”
This is NOT to predict this will happen on schedule in six days’ time. However, given that our Aggregate Index work just broke below critical support last week signaling a prudent time to be short (or in the safety of cash) is a troublesome coincidence.
Hypersonics, Kriegs & Glaciers
Hypersonic weapons are already an “off-the-shelf” as every Outback Texan already knows:
“The .220 Swift remains the fastest commercial cartridge in the world, with a published velocity of 1,422 m/s (4,665 ft/s) using a 1.9 grams (29 gr) bullet and 2.7 grams (42 gr) of 3031 powder.”
Kriegs, of course, refers to this Wiki entry:
“Blitzkrieg (/?bl?tskri??/ BLITS-kreeg, German: [?bl?tsk?i?k] (listen); from Blitz ‘lightning’ + Krieg ‘war’) is a military doctrine in which a surprise attack using a rapid, overwhelming force concentration that may consist of armoured and motorised or mechanised infantry formations, together with close air support, has the intent to break through the opponent’s lines of defense, then dislocate the defenders, unbalance the enemy by making it difficult to respond to the continuously changing front, and defeat them in a decisive Vernichtungsschlacht: battle of annihilation.”
If your coffee hasn’t “hit” yet, Blitzkrieg is slower than hypersonic. But, a Blitzkrieg is NOT as slow as glacial speed. Which is?
“Glacial motion can be fast (up to 30 metres per day (98 ft/d), observed on Jakobshavn Isbræ in Greenland) or slow (0.5 metres per year (20 in/year) on small glaciers or in the center of ice sheets), but is typically around 25 centimetres per day (9.8 in/d).
You see, I hope, the point? Wars and disaster arrive at a variety of speeds. Some are as fast as a NSNW‘s fission flash – considerably faster than early American “rocket’s red glares“. But sometimes, wars arrive as slow as Bill Clinton’s traitorous greenlighting supercomputers to China which then worked up the Lop Nor crowd’s plans to point sharp sticks back at the U.S. a decade later. That Mrs. Lolita Bill can even be considered in 2024 boggles us no end.
Events are leaving us confused as to who is slower? Democrats or Chinese strategic planners? Equally dangerous, seems to us.
Battlefield Assessment: Pacific Theater
Military affairs contributor (and oak leaf cluster, retired) warhammer has a very solid view of “things out west” today:
“The U.S. Navy has docked one of its 14 Ohio class ‘boomer’ (nuke armed USS Nevada) subs at U.S. Naval Base Guam at Apra Harbor, aka ‘Big Navy.’ USS Nevada: US Navy ballistic missile submarine makes rare appearance in Guam – CNN.
Not necessarily headline news, save for the fact that the Navy seldom (if ever) openly discloses the precise location of any of its nuclear armed boomers, each of which carries up to 20 sea launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs). One SLBM carries multiple independently targeted warheads (unclassified estimates range from 3-8 warheads per missile). So one boomer carries a serious load of whoop ass.
Not to worry about the media disclosure and resultant loss of stealth, as the USS Nevada is capable of hitting its targets from port in Guam. If China lets the fecal matter hit the rapidly rotating blades, the Ohio class boomer can independently respond in-kind before Beijing can figure out what hit them and from where.
The deployment of the USS Nevada to Guam is really all about the strategy/policy of nuclear deterrence, where having a strong nuke defense allows for either retaliation or a counter-offense via diversified, globally deployed nuke forces. Pacifist find this line of thinking totally repulsive. Realists understand that nuclear deterrence prevents naked aggression and potentially saves countless lives.
And why disclose this deployment of the USS Nevada to Guam. Perhaps, just maybe, intel indicates the PRC is contemplating a move against Taiwan. How to stop that scenario. Wasn’t it Teddy Roosevelt who famously declared “speak softly and carry a big stick?” The Nevada carries 20 big sticks, each of which carries up to several megatons of nuclear ?? whoop-ass.
I’m a former nuke bomber guy, one part of the ‘land/sea/air’ strategic nuke deterrence triad, but my hat goes off to the boomer and attack sub communities. They are the last lines of defense and the first lines of retaliation for our nation and its peace-loving allies if ever attacked. Always remember that America has a “no first strike” policy. But if tensions rise in any corner of the globe and a nuclear capable actor starts to throw their weight around, America’s nuclear arsenal looms like Clint Eastwood in Pale Rider. “Won’t shoot first, but when he does shoot, he never misses.”.
I’ll bet my last can of beer that Chinese President Xi knows every detail of the USS Nevada deployment to Guam. I’m thinking he’s not a very happy, card carrying, autocratic commie despot at the moment.
Xi wiz. “
Meantime, the dull-witted BSM (B.S. Media) continues to shy away from reporting the actual likely cause of the U.S.S. Connecticut “accident” last year: USS Connecticut was tracked and collided with a Chinese HSU-001 unmanned submarine, according to a semi-official military news account in Bilibili : LessCredibleDefence.
As I have repeatedly told you, when China decides to “Go!” my consigliere’s view is that China will not make the mistakes made by Japan in the early days of World War II. He points out that air cargo through Anchorage is vulnerable, as is Oahu generally, along with the West Coast ports, especially SoCal.
Have we all forgotten the (likely) Chinese demonstration of SLBM launch capacity back in 2010? Mystery Missile: Launch of Unknown Missile Caught on Tape in California – ABC News (go.com). Of course, the apologist press was quick to paper-it-over with stories like Eight Explanations for the Mystery California Missile Launch. Still, is the word gullible in the dictionary?
Battlefield Assessment: Eastern Europe
American mainstream media have gone “deaf and dumb” on this HUGE story as Russia continues pressing on the borders of Ukraine.
A weak attempt at American intimidation came as US intelligence says Russia planning false flag operation to justify Ukraine invasion (yahoo.com). But we see the recent cyber-attack on Ukraine government sites as merely a pre-war softening action.
We’ll now ask you to jump back up a few paragraphs in this morning’s discussion to the “Hypersonics, Kriegs, and Glaciers” part to begin to understand at least the time domain of Hybrid War.
Hybrid war is already in our future: genetic targeting will be one of the likely perversions of science we’ll live to see. While epicanthal fold-targeting genes are not yet talked of (in unclas circles) we get “close enough for home use” in The adaptive variant EDARV370A is associated with straight hair in East Asians – PubMed (nih.gov).
Which then circles back to the opening round of Collapse. Over 5 1/2 million dead from the (*pretend it’s not a) bioweapon. Which has driven the USGov to send out free money (taxed from genpop, but less so the uber-rich) in an effort to allow the privileged few additional time to find their seats well before the Musical Chairs theme ends. Late this month?
Which brings us to a holiday.
Glow Bull markets are pretending (for now) that there’s nothing going on in Ukraine. That will likely mean more of a “shock and awe” when it pops. But if you know where to look, the guns are already in the hands of “itchy fingers” on both sides. Donbas update: Ukraine reports ceasefire breach by enemy forces, 1 WIA (wounded in action) while NATO keeps pushing the same (already rejected) Western agenda: Dialogue “sign of strength”: NATO chief has faith in deal with Russia (ukrinform.net).
Still, nothing-burgers continue playing well in markets. Europe is open today and little is changing, although in the early trading overseas today, we see a case for one more week of upside before we get into Dr. G’s fractal quicksand:
The light blue arrow on the right shows one dart toss LZ to keep an eye on. In the meantime, take a look at Kyiv, Ukraine 10-Day Weather Forecast | Weather Underground.
You might “tank” us, next week or the week after.
Write when you get rich,