Three Key Market Variables

You get a short report this morning because I am working on the ChartPack for tomorrow’s subscriber report.

What’s become apparent to me is that there are a number of metrics that definitely impact business, which are not encompassed in traditional stock market technical analysis.

I would propose the information homogeneity, speed of information, and settlement speed are more drivers of the markets that some of “the Greeks” calculated from internal stock ratios.

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There’s also not a number that adequately captures  competitive returns very well.

Right now, Ure’s of the view *(as proposed many years back) that a blow-off in markets would become more pronounced as interest rates rose in the bond market.

Helps to know that the price of bonds goes down as their yield goes up.

Therefore, when the bond rates are rising – and there’s some rumble that two more interest rate hikes will come in 2018 – there will be some disintermediation.  Simply:  money will flow out of bonds to the higher yields offered by stocks.

Stocks, don’t forget, are up 30 percent (roughly, on average) since Trump went to Washington.  Bonds?  They seem to have been stuck down in the 2.3-2.4 percent range (basis the 10-Year Treasury).

This morning, though, we see how bonds were peeking over 2.6 percent.  That means the price of bonds is headed down and “hot money” – which always flows to the highest returns – is likely to be flowing into stocks because of…well, greed!

Meantime, Ure’s crackpot theory on informational discontinuities, suggests that 24-hour markets have served well to decrease market volatility.  This is why – in Peoplenomics tomrorow – we will be talking about the comparative rate of increase between 1929 blow-off and the present.

Back then, information discontinuities were much higher.  Many market players were only able to get stock quotes from the late afternoon or morning newspaper.  And it was like point and click: Orders were given to a broker, consolidated, sent to New York when physical runners (not tablets) were prompting the floor action.

Our present thinking is that the present rally m at still have a long way up, but more on that tomorrow.

The Nest Nature of Elliott’s Coins

So far, knock on wood,, our analysis of Bitcoins using trend channels and Elliott wave theory has been relatively good guidance compared with the BTFD (buy the frigging dips) crowd which is usually unable to see clearly because they are mainly emotionally invested in their financial decisions.

Our longer-term outlook was that Bitcoin may be heading for $868, now that the critical support region has been reached.

This morning we offer some other things to think about, but as always this is not financial advice – only market observations.

The key thing is that when we look at Bitcoin since the December 17 All Time High, we have an obvious wave 1 down.  Wave II up took us to the 17,250 level.  And then we collapsed down to three days ago and a few minutes in the 9,600 range.

Remember:  Elliott waves are usually nested.  And so while the big picture suggests $868, now that we have begun Wave III down, this is a nested wave which is also subject to analysis.

This means we can grok where the III could take us since wave (1) down of the larger III down bottomed earlier this week.  This results in a “bounce from here” target of perhaps 14,327.  As of this morning, the BTCs are on their way to that ‘hood trading around $11,930.

We then look to the third wave down, and a nice Fibo 0.618 decline overall would set up the wave (4) bounce.  And after that, we’d go down and finish the collapse to the $465 to $868 kind of range.

But we shall see.  This only works because humans still trade the same regardless of what it is they are trading.  Which is a weird notion when you think about it.  It’s why social media can turn into a lynch mob and such and lots of other things that we won’t speak of on the free side of things for now.

Amazon Roulette

Of all the cities on the list for Amazon’s HQ2, we favor Dallas as the “right spot.”  It has a bigh-ass airport, it has direct flights to Europe, it’s in the middle of the country.  Real estate is cheaper than almost anywhere.  Taxes are low.  Texas is growing.  It’s further north than Austin – which seems a more spendy choice on the basis of fuel and shipping prices.

The northern Virginia area we’d judge to be OK, too, but it’s a clear loser on a tax basis.  Remember, Uretopia Ranch is less than 90 minutes from Dallas, is rural, and the whole 30 acres of tree farm can be yours today for $300K including tools and equipment.  In other words, Texas is stupidly cheap.  Property tax on all that (*since we’re ag exempt)?  $681 this year.  Nutty.

The property taxes (and trajectory) of Northeast States is being discovered by outfits like The Hill which is quoting the website

Suddenly, the idea of taxigration (tax policy immigration) comes into focus.  We figured that out a dozen years back and have so far been able to avoid the rush to rural.

If you flip over there ( , you’ll see Texas may seem “poor” but with no public pension strangeholds (think California and Illinois) the odds of Amazon moving and finding itself at the center of a public pension “tax shakedown” are considerably smaller.

There’s an international version of “luring big business” going on as seen in France’s Davos? Macron hosting 140 CEOs in investment push.

Street Talk

Dow futures are pointing to a hundred point up near the open…suits us fine

Oh, and listen to the whine of poverty in the Street in Wall Street traders brace for meager paychecks as bonus season approaches.  Yeah…welcome to the planet the rest of us are on.

Shutdown? Shut Up

Your Social Security won’t stop because of a government shutdown, and federal workers of the Deep State will still be paid – even if they don’t go to work, so all this crap about a “government shutdown” is horse puckey.

Not to the whining mainstream media though: Futures climb as investors shrug off government shutdown fears.

Anything for eyeballs – and to give the Deep Staters free time off – which they won’t work, but do get paid for at least in past budget deals.

Worthy of Note

Allergy Sufferers: Delta Air to tighten onboard emotional support animal requirements.

New Trump Office Will Protect ‘Conscience and Religious Freedom’ Rights of Doctors.

Swimmingly Putin: Bare-chested Putin takes dip in icy lake for Epiphany.  And how many nominal Christians do you know willing to do this?  Putin is acting seriously Christian.

The Obama Economy follow-up from Reuters: Exclusive: Most U.S. states lost coal mining jobs in 2017 – data

CNN’s Trump Bash du jourArtists mark one year of Trump as president.  (File under bleeding hearts, empty brains.)

One way to cut “climate change” – China’s Birthrate Dropped Last Year Despite Beijing’s Relaxation of the One-Child Policy.

The nuclear clubhouse report: India’s Ballistic Missile Test Is a ‘Direct Threat,’ a Chinese State-Owned Newspaper Says.  WTF, like turnabout isn’t fair play, you PLA Lop Nur types?

Bitcrash, with a Side of Housing

Amazing, but true:  People who run the mainstream media – previously universal experts on all things crypto – have gone oddly silent as the price of VTCs dropped to less than half of their all-time-highs before entering what we’ve penciled into our charts as a “dead cat bounce…”

Just so we’re clear, I penciled in the past two days of price action – and we’ll see how high the dead cat bounces today and maybe update this tomorrow.  Still, what’s crystal clear is that Bitcoin has taken out the bottom of the support level, and having fallen  through the floor, is now locked in a trend channel decline.

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But just who far is down?

A while back, on our subscriber site – I wrote this dandy little spreadsheet called the Brain Amp (download from the Master Index page if you’re a subscriber – and if we put in the numbers on Bitcoin, here’s where we look to be going:

In the data snip to the right, notice that 868 is now a possible target range – if this is a three wave decline.  Of course, going completely out of business is a possibility, too.

In other words, when the Wave III targets go negative, Bitcoin is out of business.

What we therefore expect now, looking forward, would be a scenario that unfolds something like this.

The coiners are already blathering that because the largest bank in Japan is now planning to open a bitcoin exchange, that this is somehow an important step on the road to becoming a nationally-backed currency somewhere.

There is a huge difference between been an allowed for of exchange as opposed to a backed one.

More likely, we think – and this is based on the data in the charts – is that Bitcoin will fall to extremely low levels.  But, when this happens, it would be an ideal time for some clever central bank to “buy the currency” (which ought to be cheap) and then back it.

This seems logical enough to us, but remember here that no one stepped in back in 1637 to complete the monetization of tulips.

Nevertheless,  when Bitcoins get down into that bottom of the third wave are, then it might be interesting with some money that would otherwise be fed to the slot machines – a competing form of gambling.

Apple Coming Home

Big headline this morning: Apple to Pay $38 Billion in Taxes on Cash Overseas, Build New U.S. Campus

Question is where?  Been hearing rumors Amazon is looking at places like Cincinnati…could it be that we will become a nation of corporate cities?

Amazon owns Seattle, Microsoft owns Bellevue-Redmond, Apple owns Cupertino, Quicken Detroit, financials New York, Oils of Houston, and so on…

Now, About Housing Starts

Just out from Census today:

Building Permits Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,302,000. This is 0.1 percent (±1.4 percent)* below the revised November rate of 1,303,000, but is 2.8 percent (±1.9 percent) above the December 2016 rate of 1,266,000.

Housing Starts Privately-owned housing starts in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,192,000. This is 8.2 percent (±7.7 percent) below the revised November estimate of 1,299,000 and is 6.0 percent (±11.7 percent)* below the December 2016 rate of 1,268,000.

Housing Completions Privately-owned housing completions in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,177,000. This is 2.2 percent (±17.8 percent)* above the revised November estimate of 1,152,000 and is 7.4 percent (±13.0 percent)* above the December 2016 rate of 1,096,000.

Now, here’s your Trump Bump part:

An estimated 1,152,300 housing units were completed in 2017. This is 8.7 percent (±3.1%) above the 2016 figure of 1,059,700

Colder winter means fewer starts in December maybe?  Which gets us to……

Still More Climate Change

We continue to be astounded by the cold snap this week.  The temps here have not been this cold (this long, either) since we moved here in 2003.

We are not alone, as they say: Here’s a study that says most of the extreme (which we take to mean stupid) climate predictions are simply bullshit.

BUT – and this is a key thing to remember – bullshit is easy to monetize and I offer Global Warming turned Climate Change, which will flip to Global Cooling if any honest people are left – is a dandy example.

America’s Second Civil War looming as the FedGov is planning a massive “sanctuary sweep” in northern California.

We note with interest that this is all blowback from a long history of both the congress and past presidents “kicking the can down the road.”  Decades of appeasement along the border is now on the verge of turning California into a state of Mexico it seems as we read in Wikipedia:

The result is that, today, Latinos are the largest ethnic group in Los Angeles County, at over 40 percent of the county’s population.

What percentage of the South was Black when the Civil War broke out?

At the outbreak in 1860, 43.1 percent of the lower South was Black slaves and 1.1 percent were free Blacks.

Another year, or two, and SoCal will have this kind of Hispanic population levels, if it’s not there already.

Definitely something to keep an eye one.

Trump Healthy

Yes, but the media’s sick.

I explained the other day how no matter what the media would find something to bitch about with the president checkup report.

Sure as sh*t, here you go – predictions of a presidential heart attack in 3-5 years.

Next, we will hear the media calling the funeral homes…

Moron the ‘morrow…

Coping: Monetizing Your Time

Financial Mindset:  Here’s a terrible secret that most people aren’t aware of:

Nearly 100 percent of the time, you are either a) making money or b) spending money.  Even while sleeping.

That’s because there is still the HVAC, a light on somewhere, and even those ubiquitous “wall warts” sucking down small but measureable amounts of power keeping your toys “at the ready.”

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The point is, just like your “wetware computer” (brain) is a bipolar device – doing either input or output – so too, your personal balance sheet is “always running.”

It may seem silly for Elaine and me to attempt to live on just our Social Security, but that is the mindset.  You see, I know that if we are not living inside that income, we will be eating through retained earnings (savings).

There are, of course, times when you design your life to “run negative” on the personal P&L.  Going on a cruise is one example.

We have three overland trips planned this year to see Johnny Mathis, Tom Jones, and there’s the annual convention.  Two of these events are recreational and impose a small drain on the bank account.

Why is it that “fun” runs the bank account backwards?  One of the greatest mysteries in Accounting that I’ve never gotten a satisfactory answer to.

Monetizing Heat

I mentioned a few weeks back that I’d picked up one of those non-contact thermometers?  $33-bucks for a Infrared Thermometer PM6530B Digital Laser Non Contact IR .

How does this thing monetize?


Last week, we had a real mess of cold weather come rolling through the South.  While most people were sleeping, I was up early because when the weather is cold it’s the best time to go “heat sniping.”

There I was, 4 AM, cold as hell out side (18F which isn’t cold unless you’re used to 100F).  Walking around the house, the shop, the greenhouse, the car, the truck…anything I could find.

Then I went around the inside of the house, the inside of the guest quarters, bathrooms, under sinks. tons of places.


I was looking for hot and cold spots.  I was pleased, for example, to see that my water heater placement in the guest quarters/gym worked out just like I thought it would:  It kept all the plumbing in the room warm.\

Going over to the shower, I temp’ed the shower wall (47F but we don’t keep the heat on high in that area) and even down the shower drain to get a sense of the crawlspace there.  *38F, so I made a note to keep an eye on what happens when we get down to 15F which may, or many not, happen this year.

All the way round, I was making mental notes on where the biggest heat losses were and what could be done about them.

Heating bills in Texas aren’t too bad.  But the summertime cooling bills can be a beast.  Since  heat loss is a bi-directional item, if you find something that is warm in the winter (above local ambients) then it is an opportunity to save a little money.

Ditto the summer, when cool spots are potential money-savers.

I don’t know what the payback period will be on this little goody, but the idea is simple:  Buy the tools (and things, and vehicles, homes, clothes, et all) that will give you the best return in the long-run.

I don’t know why they don’t teach this kind of thinking in schools anymore, but it seemed like something to mention.

Mr. Temp’er also knows his morning cup of coffee hot off the stove is only 170.4F, and that the Thermos of coffee from the previous day is down to 91F.

Garden Planning and the Bank

People spend fortunes on gardens and equipment – and we’re in that group.  But, trying to apply some of my more rigorous thinking to it, I got on  my list this week to call around to rental places to see how much they want for rental of a garden tiller.

Thinking about renting instead of buying if our old tiller craps out – which it’s bound to some day being over 20-years old.

Our old tiller is on its second engine, now. $99 Harbor Freight Chinese-made which works fine.

On the low-beam, we feed it avgas because the crap with ethanol gums up the carb when not in use – yes, even when you run out the tank.

The real return on a garden comes when you mix in a lot of information.  This time around I will be tilling in the manure a couple of weeks ahead of planting, retilling at planting time, adding bags of vermiculite,  and using mulch – which I’ve been way lax on in the past.

This year a promised myself I’d read Lee Reich’s book Weedless Gardening.

A lot of people make prodigious use of seeds in their gardens, but this year I also promised myself to keep it simple.  Only plant the main veggies that we like from the store.

That means some squash (yellow), a half-dozen tomato plants, a few rows of cabbage and kale.  A few herbs, here and there. Onions – Walla Walla’s, too.  Mainly, rather than be a Texas Master Gardener wannabe, my focus is on putting in those things which we would go to the store for.

Elaine likes cherry tomatoes and I like the Beefy-Boy – so we will put in a few more than absolutely necessary.  Thing is, it all freezes and turns into Marinara sauce, so no waste.  We always lose a plant (or four) to bugs, too.  Tomato bugs here are larger than your thumb.

Thing is, I’m trying to look at gardening this year the same way I look at insulation around the house, power bills, and so forth.  Done by asking the  question “What am I getting for my money and my time?”

When you get to where it can’t be further optimized, the idea’s to hold there for as long as possible.

For most people, this means looking at the budget and chipping at the biggest line items first.

That means paying off the house early – surprisingly easy if you know how to use a Mortgage Accelerator program.  Adding not too many dollars a month as additional principal makes a huge difference on the back-end.

Next biggest line item is probably cars and insurance.  Could we go write a check for a brand new Lexus?  Sure.  Do we?  Hell no.  A 2005 that is still in the dealer maintenance program nearly gets the same MPG as a $45,000 update.  That math isn’t hard.

After that?  Insurance.  Shop until it drops.

Once you get in the habit of having money and paying cash, life isn’t so bad:  We paid no interest except on our “credit maintaining” tiny real estate note (that we can cover with a check any time) in the past five years.  When you figure out what that costs the banks, it’s a reason to smile.

Then, we keep one credit card and us it to pay for everything including groceries.  Reason?  There are many.  If anything happens to us (mugging are unlikely, but statistics are startistic…) there is virtually no liability for a lost card.  If you carry cash?  Good luck with that. Cash today really means “cash and carry” – as in concealed.

Word will get around you “live on plastic” – which isn’t a bad thing in today’s world, even it far from the truth.

We pay off the card with a wire transfer (same day) so never any interest.  Last year, we racked up about $500 in “rewards” which was like “found money.” Never got a 1099 on it, either, lol.

All of which may seem a little far afield from “monetizing your time” but it’s not, really.  Everyone has 24-hours in a day and most people worry themselves sick about how to shovel more money into the “revenue column.”  But trust me when I tell you this:  The effect on the bottom line is the same whether it comes from an increase in income or whether you opt for the decrease in expenses.

Once your main home is paid off (ours has been since 2004) it is laughable how much fun and self-satisfaction you can afford.

Do I keep a fancy dress suit around?  No.  An off the rack blazer works for most occasions.  “Brand name sneakers?”  When the Amazon old-man shoes get updated every six months and are comfortable as hell?  For $37-bucks?

This is why (if I feel like it) I can pop for a plasma cutter and if Elaine sees something she wants… well, that’s the real definition of wealth.

If you didn’t know it, write it down somewhere:  The quality of your life isn’t defined by your top line.  It’s defined by how the bottom line – the disposable personal income line – looks.

If someone has a top line income of $200K yet worries about whether they can afford a dry-aged steak?  They are not as well off as the $60K type who has no bills, and who have plenty of discretionary.

Pappy used to say:  Rich is having $20-bucks left on payday.  Inflation-adjusting counts:  That wisdom $20-buck wisdom was dispensed to me in 1965.  Today Rich is having $158.74 left over at Payday.

Bang this into your children.  They won’t get it in school.  Those teach debt-yoking, these days.

This is the gift that keeps on giving..

Life With Elaine

Ever watch the TV show Burns & Allen?   Gracie and George.

That’s what it’s like with Elaine sometimes.  Take Wednesday, for example.

“When is your brother having his eye surgery?”

I’m pretty sure it was going to be tomorrow yesterday,” she replied.

Don’t worry about me taking up cigars, but there are times rum helps as I diagram sentences…

Write when you get rich,

Coping: Holiday Research Projects Galore!

Environment/ Woo-Woo:  I don’t get much time off, despite being nominally retired.  Keeping up on markets, news, and doing original research into topics that really fascinate me leave little time for sleep, and none (to speak of) for outright lazing-about.  Thought you might be interested in where certain projects are…and perhaps they will stir further adventures in your own Life…

The Lost River, II

We recently offered a marvelous article to our subscribers about a “lost river” that runs from near the Canadian border down to the Sea of Cortez.  It was not written by me, but by that most thoughtful researchers. Robert Nelson, who runs the fantastic collection of all thing esoteric at This is a reputed river that runs both above and below ground and its legend comes replete with wild tales of rich gold ore and even a Nazi submarine…

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While it would be tempting to write off the story as pure hokum, the research that Robert came up with – mostly from turn of the last century newspapers – lays out a compelling case.

With a bit of time, and using online search tools, like Google Earth to name the 800-pound gorilla of the modern treasure hunter and adventurers, it may be possible to do from space what hasn’t been done well previously on foot.

While Elaine and I are still planning a trip up to see Robert in Nevada in 2018 (he knows where the opening to this underground marvel likely is), we are keeping our antennae up for hints of the Lost River in the contemporary flow of news.

You can be forgiven is you missed it, but there was an article in the New York Times, a few days ago, titled “The Amargosa River Defies the Desert.”

To be sure, the NY Times story is largely a conservation and climate change piece, which mostly missed the boat regarding the elusive “Lost River of Gold.”

The number of endangered and extinct species here speaks to the precariousness of life in the Mojave. The Tecopa pupfish is extinct because a local hot springs facility drained its habitat. The marsh of the endangered Amargosa vole — which numbers a few hundred — was accidentally drained by a road crew last year. The dried-out marsh caught fire, destroying 10 to 20 percent of the vole habitat.

It was a near-miss.  The NY Times story gives a sense of the land…and if you want to cry your eyes out over the possible loss of the pupfish, have at it.

But the story missed the larger – more interesting tale – of the Lost River that Robert calls the Alph.  It’s a dandy Peoplenomics report and since Nelson’s search is a great starting point, we may be glued to Google Earth for a day, or three, watching no so much the terrain, but looking at coloration gradients and the “elevation window” in the lower right of our screen.

Another Treasure Quest

I’m sure that similar thoughts have crossed the minds of half the people in Phoenix, too, when it comes to the Lost Dutchman Mine stroies from up in the Superstition Mountains.

We recently “bulked up” our readings in the area since I’ve been after Elaine to work more on her writing.  She’s quite good at it. tending toward the late Jackie Collins in style, people, and settings.  I tossed out a title (“The Dutchman’s Mistress“) which I thought would fit her latter-day knowledge of the Valley and the tromping around through The Supes she’s done with her brother.  The Supes is what the mountains are called, east of Apache Junction by Phoenix locals.

During the research, it occurred to me there are probably some good treasures to be found here in Texas.  As a semi-local example: Fletcher’s Treasure is yet to be found.

Flip over here and read “THE LEGEND OF JOHN FLETCHER’S BURIED TREASURE By W. T. Block.”

What I’m working on (as a distraction or hobby) is t a “simplified treasure-seeking method.

Seems to me people aren’t very smart about exploiting gaps in cultural knowledge created by new technology.  I know, “Huh?  Translate, please?

Sure:  Modern-day prospecting tools like the new deep-seeking metal detector I’ve ordered (which may be another holiday distrction) were not around until the 1970’s in any number.  Even more usefully, how old is Google Earth?  [10 trivia points if you knew June 11, 2001 without looking!]

Knowing this, you can see where the “technology gap” is:  All you need to do is find some smaller, rural newspapers with an old-time news morgue (or ‘the stacks’ of old books in public libraries) try around 910.453.

Side show:  The book call numbers depend whether you’re following the Melvil Decimal System (MDS) or the Dewey Decimal System(DDC).  I might find “treasure” in the Dewey 976’s.

If you weren’t aware, even though it came out more than 100-years back, there’s a copyright issue involved in the DDC.  It’s presently claimed as “owned” by the Online Computer Library Center, Inc.  Although offers this view of their alternative Melvil Decimal System (MDS) in what’s become a contested area of IP (intellectural property):

“Why MDS? Although he invented his system in 1876, and has been dead for 79 years, Dewey lives on. The library conglomerate OCLC continues to produce new editions, which are copyrighted. And the terms “Dewey,” “Dewey Decimal,” “DDC” and so forth are registered trademarks of OCLC. In the past OCLC has been touchy about Dewey. They once sued the Library Hotel for putting books in rooms according to the rooms’ Dewey number. So we aren’t taking any chances.

Although OCLC updates the Dewey Decimal System, they cannot own the numbers themselves, which are assigned by librarians around the world. Nor can they own the system as it existed in 1922—for that edition is out of copyright.”  [Emphasis added by…uh….]

So we’ve made a note to only reference the USDS (*urbansurvival decimal system) to keep lawyering to a minimum around here.  (If we ever find Big Treasure and we have a cast of cutthroat lawyers to field, we’ll get more abusive in our numbering of things.)

Back to point: The “gulf” that dyed-in-the-wool treasure-seekers should be exploiting would be Sources on the one hand, preferrably those prior to 1955, or so.  And then conduct the research with modern-day tools like Google Earth, on the other.  Aided by your quest into the dusty pages of old-time rural newspapers.

More in tomorrow’s column – because there’s so damn much research to do and there’s so little time available…

Still out there is that damn “quest for the space-time ripping sSund…” [Voice of God] to be dealt with and the fallout from that research – ultra-emotional music.  But, more on that when next we bean…

Oh, be sure to get a copy of Robert Nelson’s Civilization Kit CD here, too…we “old men of the web” do interesting things when no one’s looking.  Kind of like elves…

Write when you get rich,

Fed Steps On Gas: Market Going Higher

You ever see one of those movies where a really hopped-up car (usually with either a supercharger of nitrous injection system) is “lit up” with the wheel cranked over…and then goes around in tire-smoking circles?

That’s about as good a mental picture as it gets to explain what’s going on with the U.S. economy right now.  We have a Fed that has stomped on the gas (the money supply) while holding the wheel over (unloading its balance sheet) while entertaining and sending a message to the viewer that Modern Monetary Theory work…and to prove it, we’ve turned on the nitrous…

The reason we can semi-confidently look for the market to go higher is the discontinuity disclosed in the latest Fed H.6 Money Stocks report.  This weekly confessional takes a bit of reading to understand, but once you “get it” one aspect of investing becomes much clearer.  Specifically, the old Marty Zweig rejoinder to “Never Fight the Fed.”  So solid is his advice that it’s the #2 Stocking Stuffer this year (after a subscription to our site): Martin Zweig’s Winning on Wall Street.

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Let’s tear into what the Fed has going on in the H.6:

There are two sliding windows reported each week.  The earlier one covers through the end of October – which they muddle for the non-bankster priesthood by calling it “To November…”  The key numbers to watch are the first line and the last.  As you can see, through the end of October (above) the annual M1 was up 6.0 in the short-ter,m and 8.2 in the long-term.  Let’s compare that with the more recent data:

In this view we noticed that M1 was gone from a 6% rate of increase to a 7.1% rate,  In other words, they have stepped up money creation.

We can then look at the 52-week view of M2 (the broader measure of money) and see that a month and a half ago, it was being increased at a 4.7% rate and now it’s up to 4.9%.

What would worry the Fed, however, is that the short-term rate of rise for M2 has only gone from 3.5% annualized to 3.9…and that may not be enough for the illusion to hold up.

I see a hand?

Yes, professor Ure:  If the Fed really wanted to force rates us, why wouldn’t they just freeze the rates of increase…and some lower level…and then just let the market forces drive rates up?

Ah…as savory a question as my filet mignon last night; with a dusting of Johnny’s Seasoning Salt (3 Pack) and a fresh-ground pepper medley with a side of….oh, wait, that’s for my next class…home ec!

The problem of the Fed is that if they don’t increase the money supply – and a good bit – that long-term M2 number will come down.  As it does, the economy will cool and the Trump Bump will be over.

Already, there are lots of Social Security recipients – including Ure’s truly, who are pissed with how the FedGov is screwing us little people with double-talk and lies (our next topic).  But the main thing is that with sacks of “assets” in the form of no-doc loans they need TONS of “easy money” so their assets can be sold off.  And they enough money sloshing around so that people will spend, spend, spend.

That’s the “magic” of MMT  (sadly, not the Mirac le Money Technique – which really works):  We’re talking about what we proposed back in 2001 when the wreckage of the Internet Bubble collapse was all over these pages.

The simple answer (as we explained it then, and 16-years hasn’t revised the right answer):  The Fed no doubt has a backroom with economists brighter than me who have modeled (like I did) and decided that the way to avoid a calamity (Second Great Depression)  is to flood the world with money at just the right rate.

Oh, sure, in reality the forces of pernicious deflation are still at work.  I mean, you can’t just wish the Economic Long Wave away.  But, imagine if the 1929 experience had been different (because this is likely where we’re going, so pay attention):

What IF in 1928 the back-then Fed has printed the bejezus out of money.  So much that the market would more than have doubled?  Say the market quadrupled…

What would have happened then (done fast enough) we would have seen a CRASH alright, but because the price levels would have been back to something fairly recent (like 1928 prices), it would be simple to maintain control and “talk-through” the problem.

What A Super Blow-off Could Look Like

This is really “thinking the unthinkable out loud” but here goes:

Suppose the Fed noticed as we have pointed out that the Bond Market isn’t playing ball with the Rate Hike Illusion?  Remember, going into the rate hike,, the 10-year Treasury wasn’t intimidated.  In fact yesterday the 10-year note fell again!!!  Down to 2.35%.

What’s happening right now (and it’s hard to wrap your head around it) is that we in effect now have two interest rates.

One is the nonsense the Federal Reserve talks about.  The OTHER is the one my deflationist pal Jas Jain cited – which is the REAL interest rates which are down around 2.35% now.  Jas, by the way, expects a market decline in 2018 and is back into bonds realizing that despite the Yellen yellin’ their is too much “money” out there and rates will stay low.

A lot of people won’t comprehend this:  But for those who do, the answers are pretty simple:  Watch two sets of indicators and try to figure when it all hits the fan.

As the rate of rise in the stock market (and Bitcoins which we expect over $18,000 by Christmas and maybe $30,000 by February (at these rates) stocks will continue toward lunar orbit.  Think 2,800 and higher and possible on the S&P.

At the same time, however, the Fed will talk-through as best they can.  ]

What’s missing is that “oldie but goodie” called M3.  it’s a much broader measure of the economy and sadly Alan Greenspan whacked that because it made playing “Follow the dancing Fed’s lead” too easy.  People were able to “bet with the house” and that tended to speed up the social escalator.  Not something you want if you’ve already got a home in the Hamptons.

That’s our “thinking point” today:  What would have happened in 1929 if instead of actually tightening – which we know made the Great Depression greater, the Fed were to go the other way…and print and flood while talking the inflation side?

We know inflation is coming back…but will it be enough to ensure that we don’t eventually get to the wash-out (and negative rates anyway)?  A fine question.  But it’s one that if you still own  a home that’s paid-for, you don’t really need to answer.  If you’ve got five years of taxes in dependable assets?  That will get you to the timeline front porch of World War III.  If there’s a tax collector on the backside of that…let us know.

The Social Security Screw-Job

I got my annual benefit change notice in the mail this week – and it’s another fine example of government double-talk, or more correctly government double-cross.

Here’s how the game is played.

Social Security gets adjusted for what?  Inflation.

So the top line went up as it’s supposed to.

Here’s the gotcha:  The Medicare expense went up much faster than inflation.

As a result, the Ure household didn’t get anywhere near the REAL inflation as reflected in the latest CPI data out this week.

Had it done so, we should have seen a rise in take-home of 2.0 percent (roughly).

Instead, by jacking up medical costs, our net increase is 1.19%.  Looking at the Food costs in the CPI (up 1.4%) we should still be able to eat.  But with energy up 9.4%, we expect to be colder in winter, hotter in summer, and not going anywhere!

Do I sound bitter?  Who, me? Naw…I never planned on SS anyway but it does beat scratching dirt and selling onions..

Hollywood Pay Dirt

You need to flip over to Variety for today’s latest installment of the entertainment world in collapse as “Dustin Hoffman Accused of Exposing Himself to a Minor, Assaulting Two Women (EXCLUSIVE).

The “Iffy” Mainstream Media

After revelations that a couple of key DOJ/FBI types were plotting to stop Donald Trump from winning the White House, please notice today how many of the MSM puppets have had their strings pulled by the Deep State to say things like “Oh, these people were entitled to their opinions…” and other such pap.

Fact is, when DOJ employees on government time plot in ANY way involving political figures it’s a Hatch Act violation and many of our readers have bandied the word “treason” about, as well.

Today, notice how the Deep State has orchestrated the “walk-back” stories.  Try “DOJ now says early release of FBI agents’ private texts to reporters was ‘not authorized’ by the department.” for starters.

Ure, for one, thinks all employees of Justice and the FBI should abstain from voting during their tenure.  Just like some A.P. reporters (and me) back in the day didn’t vote in order not to have “skin in the game.”

I may go back to that, all the good voting has done…

Nowadays, reporters and officials are all fundraising partisans, seems like…

Tax Bill on Ice?

Thin ice at that as Marco Rubio may not be “sold” on the contents.

I haven’t figured if this is a plot to hold up the lobbyists for more “support” but it’s clear from reports like  “With Billions at Stake in Tax Debate, Lobbyists Played Hardball” that America isn’t run by Americans anymore.

It’s bought and sold by Washington “law firms” who can deliver anything the corporates want, given enough time and money.  Am I the only one who read Jack Abramoff’s book Capitol Punishment: The Hard Truth About Washington Corruption From America’s Most Notorious Lobbyist?

In today’s world, a better question might be “Am I the only person left who can read more than 200 characters?

I’m not kidding…Zeus the cat has a longer attention span.  We should be feeding kids mice instead of drugs….

GOP Sellouts: Stealing the Net

Speaking of crooked:  Your Internet has just been stolen thanks to the clown posse led by Ajit Pai at the FCC. The FCC just killed net neutrality.

Credit to Obama here:  This is one of the few things his administration got right.  Wrong on open borders, unmasking, trying to get Trump embroiled in the Russia narrative…but THIS one they got right.

Not that it matters:  The media is complicit.

I have a bone to pick pick on media coverage.  Take the story by Josh Barro of Business Insider who claims “If Net Nonneutrality turns into disaster, we can reverse it.”  Oh?  Outbid corporate interests that have more money than the Almighty Itself?

No, kids. This muddled thinking is tantamount to saying “If we give the Mafia control of the web, we can always get it back.”  Good luck with that.

WTFU.  This read like the handiwork of corporate happy-talkers who have already overthrown democracy…(In fairness, for the reporter the flip side is access, but it’s a deal with the devil, especially in a press release-driven world.)  I did mention the Abramoff book, right?

This is why I’m so skeptical of younger reporters. (And all of ’em are these days, come to think of it).

Whazzup Today

This is quadruple witching day.  Quarterly, bonds, yada, yada.

Empire State Manufacturing data from the NY Fed just out:

 “Business activity continued to grow at a solid clip in New York State, according to firms responding to the December 2017 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index, at 18.0, remained close to last month’s level. The new orders index and the shipments index both showed sustained strong gains, with the former holding steady at 19.5 and the latter edging up to 22.4. Delivery times were slightly longer than last month, and inventory levels were stable.”

Going into the open the Dow futures are up another 90, S&P also set to rise. Bitcoins are nearing $17,700.

What could possibly go wrong?

Tax Reform: The Carrot and Glock Approach

Among our many problems in the U.S. is this one involving self-delusion about the bubble of “money, government, free lunch, and public debt.”

Problem’s this:  At some point the free lunch will run out.  This morning, Tax Reform is being outed for what it really is – just another scheme to give you a break today in return for a ball-buster tomorrow.  See “Republicans are scrambling to make gigantic last-minute changes to their tax bill that could include future tax hikes” for some insights.

(Continues below)


The stock market has been soaring the past couple of days (and I have been feeling like Ben Dover with my small short position) butt, in the end (so to speak), sanity may yet return.

Tomorrow in Peoplenomics, I will explain why the U.S. Budget Deficit is almost twice the publicly discussed figure.  For this morning, though, let’s look at the market which is set to open down 100, or so, on the Dow…

The main problem is that the Republicans’ tax reform drive hit by deficit projections.  Until now, this has been terribly glossed-over.  Maybe there is hope.

I characterize this as the “carrot and the Glock” problem. As a taxpayer, you’ll get a small carrot now and then you’re personal income will be taken out back and shot at close range in a year or three.

That’s because the “tax reform” plan (or any other scam that increases today debt per capita in the long-term) just cinches the Yoke of Debt tighter and tighter over time.

Remember: The carrot is that the bill would grant a small tax break but on the backside, there would be a large tax increase in future years.

It can’t be another other way since “accounting” has rules.

Accounting Principles say there are only a couple of choices for government here, given the high levels of current (and immediately projected) expenditures:

They can a) bump up the federal budget deficit (already at $20.5 trillion, but in reality really twice that number) OR they can try to hold the line of the deficit by having a tax increase in future years.

Hold on!

Let’s look at why they would do this!

The answer is simply:  Most of Congress (both houses) are comprised of publicly-minded sociopaths or miscreants.  They figure that if they hand out a little free lunch (tax break now) they can kick the can “down the road” AND get another bite of that fat cat retirement system they’ve built for themselves once they get into office again.

Thing is, if they can pull off the tax cut swindle that will probably be true.  They will blame that oh so bad past Congress…and this will be followed by the predictable promises that “If you reelect ME, I will go back there and give them the what-for and fix all that ails us….”

Since the electorate is, if anything, stupid, the data confirms this is the case.

If if entails blowing up the Nation’s money, every so often, then oh, well, cost of doing business.

Am I lying?  No.

Do you want me to begin with the First Bank of the United States which began to issue paper in 1791?

No, let’s go back to the Continental Congress in 1775 which began the Continental.  That was a short run.

After the failure of the First bank of the United States, the Second Bank of the United States came along in 1812.

That idea quickly hit the rocks so despite the Coinage Act, the period from about 1837 (a great depression, by the way) to the Civil War.  That’s when Treasury Notes prevailed.

The Civil War saw the issuance of Greenbacks.  And following this, there was a period of a different currency with bimetallic convertibility.

That is, until 1900 when the Gold Standard Act bounced silver’s role and declared a dollar was based on gold at 23.22 grains (1.505 g) of gold, equivalent to setting the price of 1 troy ounce of gold at $20.67.

Convertibility went along fine, for a while…but ended with the confiscation of private gold AND silver during the Great Depression.

Everyone knows about Executive Order 6102 that confiscated Gold.  But fewer know that Executive Order 6814 confiscated SILVER, as well.

Of course, this was followed by the notion that the U.S. Dollar (now sold as Silver Certificates) was really backed by gold and silver.

As we have discussed many times here, THAT system failed in 1971 when Nixon ended the sham of convertibility and since then, the dollar has been “sold” to us under a confidence scheme “backed by the full faith and credit” of the United States.

Why, if that “full faith” involved people like Franken and Conyers, you can see how thin that’s becoming.

There are several ways to count how many “currencies” this is.  One is by the notional papers that passed as “legal tender” – a term not even codified until the middle of America’s history.

We also know that Ben Franklin was credited with anti-counterfeiting techniques of printing, but in truth, many of these came from Joseph Breintnall, who few learn about in school because of the rewriting of American history to an agenda…but let’s put that aside for another time.

Since America has such a long and glorious history of blowing up its money (and confiscations) we have little doubt that we are still headed for the next currency crisis…and it’s just a matter of time until the ghostly inferences from compound interest materialize into a full-blow panic.

Which brings us back to the Fools on the Hill today.

Will they be able to once-and-for-all fix things?  Nope.  Regardless of the vote, the art is kicking the can and swindling the voters – which congress has an unimpeachable record of accomplishing.

One of the ways they do it is through the Exchange Stabilization Fund.  You really need to read up on this because it’s not transparent, at all.  Sure, there ae reports like the present one (the fund lost $243-million in the fiscal year to date as of Oct. 30). When you trade in markets, there’s a ‘thumb on the scale” of price discovery.

While se cannot accuse the Treasury of intervening in today’s market action, we noted that the Dow futures down more than 100 earlier were pulled-back to just down 50.

Arbing up the futures can be done, though, so we will wait for mid-morning to see how the “thumbs” are doing.

We do note that overnight, the global confidence bubble was running into trouble.  Reports out of Washington on the tax vote likely had something to do with it.


An Odd Quake

We are not sure what happened over in Delaware with that 4.1 quake down 10 KM, or 5.2 miles.  However, the European earthquake sites are reporting it as a depth of 6 KM or about 3.75 miles deep.

That’s not particularly deep for a 4.1 quake.  Did someone drop something big down a hole?  Seems like a single shock, not a movement which is what most quakes are.

If you wanted to write a novel about how the U.S. has a secret network of “deep holes” around major metro areas to “drop undetonated ordnance” into, for us by NEST Teams and others, you might be onto something…just saying.

No, I don’t have access to “secrets” about such things, but it would only make sense that it would be part of a comprehensive Homeland response.

3.7 miles deep, which would be a hike into the hard-rock under Delaware says our geological consultant…yeah, that would contain a good-sized boomer.

Of course, there are no such holes or plans….ahem….

Everyone: Run From Street!

This is only a test:  ‘It’s Loud. It’s Frightening.’ Hawaii to Test Siren Intended to Warn of Impending Nuclear Strike.

Say, here’s something to look forward to: A war with North Korea would be hell: Millions could die.  ‘N’other cynical pill, anyone?

Oh, Poor George Department

Oh, the sorrows of Soros:  George Soros: Oppression in Hungary worse than under Soviets.

Which means the government there much be getting close to his nerve endings…

Bleeding Edge Leaks

If you have some time and want to be ahead of the curve a bit, go check the Google results for Qanon.

More productive than sitting on your butt this weekend…

Correctness Collapse?

Check out this little gem:  So LBGTQ groups get their rainbow colored crosswalks.  Except, now they’re a safety hazard!

(There are so many of these snake eating its own tail stories, it’s quite amusing.  But, in the spirit of monetizing everything possible to prevent the collapse of civilization (already a damn thin veneer, anyway), we generally bite our tongues around here.  Then there’s morning’s when the tongues are bleeding and we just have to point out how silly the world is.

By the way, what the hell is “online rape?”  I ask because of this one: Lawyer: Swede convicted of ‘online’ rape will appeal.

And how about this one: California students’ suspensions for ‘liking’ racist posts are justified, judge rules.

Total attack on free speech/free association, but are we surprised?  Hell no! U.S. District Judge James Donato was appoint by Barack Obama!  What would you expect?

I hope this gets flipped on appeal.  No, I am not supporting racism (hell no), but there’s this thing about free speech…and it makes the Left nuts.

On the other hand, B.O. does get something right now and then.  Like when Obama Warns Social Media Use Can Provoke ‘Snap Judgments’.

Back on topic:  I’m  all about de-racing everything.  Not a factor in our thinking.  But, by making race, gender, national origin, religion, yada yada something “in law” – well, now you can monetize the sh&t out of things.  Which is what we do.

Meanwhile, you can’t hardly buy a refrigerator – better yet, a microwave – that’s actually made in America. In fairness, monetizing ideas and other personal data field content is non-polluting and…oh jeez, let’s have some shots for breakfast and just be friends, right?  We’re still One Country Under God, Indivisible and all that, right?

No?  One Country Going Under, then…FMTT <–2nd day in a row!

Futures just went positive…on happy tax talk and maybe some “help.”  Forget shots…something stronger?

Coping: Christmas System 1: Room-by-Room

Hate to admit it, but I am a compulsive manager.  Which is to say when there is something to be done, the first thing I do is sit back with a big cup of coffee and think about how to accomplish the task in the most methodical & efficient way possible.

This applies to Christmas, as much as anything else.  So, now and then over the next few weeks, I’ll show you a couple of ways to make Christmas shopping a very short, joy-inducing, event.  Nothing but brain cells and clicks, as Ure sees it.

The only real problem is deciding which method to follow to get to the sweet-spot of the joyous holiday blah, blah, blahs…

(Continues below)


The first idea I came up with is called Room-by-Room.  We have By-Gender, then there’s By-Hobby, and several others.

Which oughta be obvious, unless you’re hung-over or just need a caffeine infusion before taxing the brain.  Let’s wander around Uretopia ranch and I’ll point out a few things…

Front Gate:

The front gate of this place is usually open.  In rural East Texas, that’s short-hand for “we’re home and open to receiving guests provided you called first and we’re expecting you...”  That’s also “rural code” for “We can drop you from here…”

An open gate also means the mailman and the PS and FedEx drivers are welcome.  There are too many times (talking to our drivers, who play Santa several times a week all year-long) that a closed gate would result either in a trip to Palestine (14 miles) or to Tyler (37 miles) to pick up a missed delivery.  Gate’s gotta be open.

Still, we’ve been eyeing this Mighty Mule MM360 Automatic Gate Opener for Medium Duty Single Swing Gates for 16′ Long or 550 lb.  The “problems” with this little project is obvious:  We don’t presently have 120 volt power up at the gate.  Putting it in isn’t terribly hard, except I’d have to rent a trencher ($$$) and pay OM2‘s son a few bucks, and that’d solve the power problem.

Provided, that is, we don’t cut the telephone cables and the water lines in the process.  Those are trip-wires.

At that, what could go wrong?  Well the power could go out.

And what about the delivery guys?  Do we give then a code?  Oh-oh, wouldn’t that mean a pour (of concrete if you’re a snoozing slicker) and putting in a pedestal and THAT in turn, means big trucks (thinking concrete and lumber yard delivers) won’t be able to make the turn.

Hmmm… there has to be some way to “tune-up” the look of the front gate.

Which gets us to a $12 LIYUDL Solar Powered house address number Lamp Light,3W 4 LED Waterproof Doorplate Stainless Steel Light.  While there’s only one review, I figure this could be mounted over the existing house numbers and that would be the extent of changing the look of the place.  $12 instead of $330.  I can live with that.  Our meanderings resume…

In the office, one of my chairs is being snarfy.  It’s hard to beat Amazon Basics for things like this.  So a AmazonBasics Mid-Back Mesh Chair for $65 will be my big “end of year” office splurge for the year.

Except for TurboTax Home & Business 2017 Fed+Efile+State PC/MAC Disc [Amazon Exclusive] on  disk, which runs $95.

Off to the guest room/gym next:  Bintiva Professional Grade, Non Slip Grip, Neoprene Coated Dumbbells 10 LB Pair – Blue is about the only thing I could think of. If you have a treadmill, weight machine, kettle balls and oxygen, what else is there? (Elaine already one dumbbell…what’s two more?)

Nothing to get for the bathroom in the guest quarters.  I did want to mention that back in September, I picked up a Winsome 92436 Luggage Rack with Shelf which at the time was $29-bucks.  Today it’s up to $39.  If this is a hint about tomorrow Consumer Price Report, call in the Astroglide crew.

Still, can’t say enough good things about the luggage rack.  Elaine keeps a basket of fresh towels on it and rolls up the bath mat there when we don’t have company.  Which is most of the time…

(The GQ water heater is behind that door, so nothing’s blocked…)

Moving to the shop, the Big One on the wish list is a plasma cutter. I keep thinking I would do more metal work except that cutting raw stock down with the chop saw is noisy.

I spend more time looking at Amazon’s Super Deal Plasma Cutter Cutting 50AMP CUT-50 Digital Inverter 110-220V Welding Welder Cutting Machine Dual Voltage w/ Free Mask for $229.  No, a handheld free mask doesn’t excite me, either.  But, cutting 1/2-inch steel without firing up the oxy-rig?  Yeah, now you’re talking something… (You know you’re aging some when you spend more time on the tool pages than  the porn pages…)

The problem I have (more like an addiction) is I love tools.  We’ve had the “tool slut” conversation before.

I was all set to check out not only with the plasma cutter, but a boat-load of consumables.  Even went over to the house to talk to Elaine about it.  “Do what you want, dear, it’s your money….”  OMG, they broke the mold: What a wonderful wife, right?

Then suddenly, on the way back to the office (which is off the shop) I stopped in my tracks.  All that long-ago MBA training came back to me in a flash…

If you buy a tool, don’t buy anything unless the work done with the tool will be at least 10 X the price of tool…otherwise, rent.

Well, spit fire and save matches!  $250 forth of cutter and consumables would mean $2,500 worth of cutting prior to welding.  That’s gobs of cutting!

Been thinking about welding up a trailer, though, but been stymied by the shipping costs of having metal delivered.  Non-trivial, at best.

For a second, the mental fog cleared:  We’ve lived 14-years out at the end of the wire with nothing more than  a pickup truck, so what did I need a trailer for?

The mental chatter began to scream:

You can get some of that great FREE stuff on Craigslist and be able to swoop in and pick up those bargains that show up on the Criagslist in the Materials section…”

Hold it! (Rational brain working again?) That would only result in what?  (all together: MORE WORK!!!)  I’m how old?

In the end, I decided something for the electronics bench made a hell of a lot more sense: An ESD Safe Compact Desoldering Station (CSI474A). Turned out to be cheaper (by far) than the plasma cutter ($130 vs. $250) and I really do work on thousands of dollars worth of equipment.  So this one (I’m telling myself) makes the 10X rule.

The 10X rule is very useful. I came up with a corollary you might be able to use if the plasma cutters go on sale in January or February:

What if we consider 10X time savings as a criteria?  That would give us a more “wiggle-room.” And it’s how I justified the rototiller:  The garden soil would NEVER get turned over without a tiller.  Given a shovel, it’s like trying to turn  over pieces of a parking garage floor.  Ever try planting in Quik-Crete?

Speaking of which!  We have a few bare spots in the yard that just never want to fill-in right.  That’s because the soil is concrete-like.  While I was shopping the answer seemed to be stuff: Liquid Aerating Soil Loosener- Aerator Soil Conditioner- No Mechanical or Core Aeration- Simple Lawn Solutions- Any Grass Type, All Season- Great for Compact Soils, Standing water, Poor Drainage..  Sure: $30 bucks, but better than not having the lawn established and weeds coming up.

We will get to this March, or so.  Figure by the time I get around to reading the directions.  By then, soil temps will support grass seeding again.

One other tool – and this is part electronic, part cook: ES6530B Non-Contact Digital Laser IR Infrared Thermometer Temperature Gun for Kitchen Cooking BBQ Automotive Industrial, -58? – 1022? (-50? to 550?) with HD Backlight LCD Display Accuracy Reading which was $33.

The idea of having this around the electronics bench is being able to check component temps without electrocuting yourself.  It also has other uses, like seeing how hot the oven is when proofing yeast which like 94F ideally.

We (*Zeus the cat and me) spent a fair bit of research time on this:  The “critical measurement” on these thermometers is called the D:S (distance to sense) ratio;  Cheap units are about 8:1  while a better unit is 12:1 and realty good (meaning more expensive) are 20:1.

The 8:1’s give a reading in about a 2-inch circle at one foot.  The 12:1’s should give about an  inch of spot at a foot.  The 20:1 units will give you 3/4-inch at a foot (or better).  The 20:1 units are more spendy but sometimes you get what you pay for.

So much for thinking about Christmas….

I’s invite you to wander through the House, but that’s Elaine’s domain.  And pappy didn’t raise no fool.  Or, did he?

Write when you see the first wild turkey of the season…