As usual around here, the first order of business any day is making the weekly list of things to do, what to watch-for in the markets, and figuring where the next “out of left field” events will be coming from.
Since I make no apologies for capitalism, we can begin with markets which are set to rally more than 200 points on the Dow Jones at the open.
One way to read this is that it’s a relief rally. After all, no further accusers have come forward — yet. My money is still on the anti-Kav’s being able to flush out at least one more. But, due to press dynamics we expect that the next shocking claims would be along about Thursday. This would be close-enough to a possible full senate vote that the demagogues would claim again how terribly important it is for questionable accusations to delay things until the mid-term election which is just a month off.
Meantime, what the MSM is not going all gah-gah about is the female prosecutor who was asking the questions at the Judiciary committee hearing.
The Rachel Mitchell finding is on the Washington Post site over here, but the key phrase in her bottom line was “…I do not think a reasonable prosecutor would bring this case…”
Fortunately, for the Demagogue Party the opposition in The Jellyfish Party remains spineless and frankly, blowing in the left-wing political wind. This may not be a kind thing to say, but I expect that if there were non-majority party pawns up for (controlled) elections next month, they’d do very well. The two “parties” we have are totally fox-uniformed, unable to handle a budget and leaving us all servants to the One Percenters at the top. Some things never change, huh?
So, we have that (new “shocking!”) disclosures penciled in for Wednesday or Thursday – just long enough before a vote that it will provide cover for all the Flakes assembled.
<Meantime, it may never end as Fox reports “Dems threaten more Kavanaugh probes, even if confirmed; Comey blasts FBI investigation deadline.” Isn’t a soap a little cheaper to produce than this channel-filler the Kav has become??>
All that vitriol aside, there are some other reasons for the market to rally like hell early this week. For one, the September employment performance will be scored. The ADP employment guesstimate will be out Wednesday, so expect the Job Cuts from Challenger Thursday ahead of the actuals from BLS Friday.
The month-on-month has been doing OK for Trump…
One thing Trump can take credit for is the greater consistency in the monthly change. Still, the leery investor (chickens with a tie) will zoom-in on the manufacturing employment to see if the recent improvement holds.
The strategic problem is last month was a negative and absent any big reversal to the upside, the domestic manufacturing data may be just a blip; perhaps driven by the repatriation of so much offshore corporate cash due to the Tax Reform bonus, which by our reckoning, may have about run its course.
Unless you’re a hedge fund (and not really “talking your book…”) BlackRock co-founder sees U.S. stock rally continuing beyond 2019. Let me see…“This time it’s different” perhaps?
If the job numbers for September are going to be a shade weaker than expected, we would anticipate today and tomorrow could be “buy the rumor” days for stocks. Then the three days of ADP, Challenger, and official numbers could be “sell the news.” But, that’s just a dart, two cups of coffee into it. We don’t know what the Demagogues latest casting call has turned up…
Off in the background, oil prices have remained firm as OPEC oil output boost in September limited by Iran losses: Reuters survey. And, if the Fed is really serious another another rate hike before the end of the year, the present flattened spreads bet5ween close in rates (like the 2-year) and the long-term rates (like the 30-year Treasury) have people on the fixed-income side biting their nails. Who’d buy a recent-vintage bond if the Fed is pushing on inflation so hard?
Of course, it’s not working out all that well. Since, as any fool can see (that’s me, lol), the prices of precious metals like gold and silver hasn’t gone up much.
What we’re more likely seeing (when we take off the glasses, kick-back, and think things through) is the end of the old inflation – deflation model of how the economy works.
Computational horsepower has made it possible to break inflation and deflation into a zillion incomprehensibly large number of “moving parts..” When I was in school, the macro econ was pretty easy: You had Labor, Material Costs, and a handful of formulas.
Problem is, today such generalizations don’t work due to over-computerization. Runaway complexity means we can calculate Labor costs on an hourly basis. “Zeus, run me the equivalent hourly wage rate for female versus male baristas in Seattle with blonde hair and within a 6.3 mile radius of Starbucks down on South Utah Avenue…”
(Historical note: No one in Seattle remembers that whole part of Seattle was built on fill dredged up from the Duwamish River and that it was all rail yards for the longest time. Utah Avenue was likely named for the trains that came in from Utah to refill the old-style rail sidings that, in turn, filled the (pre UPS and FedEx) distribution warehouses in the district…. but I digress…)
Which means the bottom line of Necessiflation is that if something is necessary, it will get more expensive. If not, it will be getting cheaper.
Put another way, Macro-Economics has evolved to such a drill-down level that it’s Compunomics and Microeconomics is now Nanonomics…
Let’s take Elon Musk, for example. Once upon a time, a CEO would focus on making a company work. Now? Let’s all make-up a company that will power homes with stored electricity, let’s make cars, and oh yeah…how about we go to the Moon, while we’re at lit.
It doesn’t mean Musk is nuts (genius may appear so). It just means in today’s world, if you own a paper company, there’s no inconsistency with opening a bakery, as well.
Speaking of whom: “Musk Made to Pay for SEC Delay; Shares Jump on Settlement.” Musk is also no longer chairman, so maybe I should dust-off my resume…
Before he goes to the Moon, maybe Elon needs to scan Electric cars cast growing shadow on profits.
Meanwhile, musical chairs is a money-maker as GE’s Flannery steps down as CEO, shares jump 15 percent.
Tips and Quips
NAFTA Deal done? Trump to hold news conference on new NAFTA deal on Monday morning.
Hate White Male government spreads as “California has a new law: No more all-male boards/” Sexual profiling, anyone? Would 2 straights, 2 trans, and 3 days work? LOL, we have passed over into insanity… Sexual discrimination, I tell yah…. (where’s my meds?)
Firewall California? “California Has Enacted the Country’s Toughest Law to Protect Net Neutrality.”
Hypnotized apes on phones dept: Selfie nearly turns deadly after man falls into Potomac River, rescued by witnesses.
All in all, a quiet week.
My New Book is Out
Paperback should be done by Friday…
Thanks to Chris McCleary (www.nationaldreamcenter.com) who continues proofreading. If you see a typo (from me???lol) Send it along and I will update the ebook as we go.
Friendly reviews on Amazon are appreciated. And if you’re wondering what the book is about:
People live one life when “awake.” This is called “normal.” A few of us live, a very robust second life when we go to sleep. Amazing adventures await!
We inhabit the Dream Realms. There, we learn, fly, walk on water, and live incredible miracles first-hand. We catch glimpses of the future, communicate with those beyond “The Veil,” and process-away the millions of broken thought-fragments left-over from waking-state activities.
With a bit of effort, you can learn to bring treasures from The Dream Realms over to this, the “waking-state.”
This is NOT magic. This is NOT religion. Nor psychology of the old Schule. It’s WAY cooler. Not bounded by limits; it’s a liberating to exist beyond “death and taxes.”
You may choose to live a single-state life. Or, claim a Second Life. It’s like joining Peter and Tinkerbelle in Wonderland every night. Full UHD and tactile experience.
Sound spooky? Fear not. This is a journey to Claim Your Power as an understudy of the Creator. Ready?
Sound overwhelming? It is. Your mere inquiry, though, has planted a seed. Freed, your Dreams will grow. You will grow into them by visiting The Realms. And returning.
OK, have a great Monday…time to head for the breakfast table and tell the pigs, Ure’s about to get linked-in at breakfast…
Moron the ‘morrow…