Date Math: How Long to War and Other Problems

Because our projections of the market being in a blow-off top formation lead-in are working out very closely, this morning we extend things out many years to get a better idea of how the future could present itself.

Granted, this is highly speculative in nature, but then again, so was our recent call for a Dow to zoom up to as high as 25,000 – or more – between now and the period after the 2016 election.

The problem is getting the right data into the model and then doing a bunch of date math to figure out when particular economic landmarks should be passed.

That, along with our market analysis and more, will make this morning’s cuppa bean particularly satisfying. 

Even if our view of the future isn’t precisely right, it’s better to have a 20-80 view of things than be running completely blind when comes to future events.

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6 thoughts on “Date Math: How Long to War and Other Problems”

  1. I don’t know where to begin – College Education/ Free education. I think that the present day student loan business is really nothing more than another welfare program to keep folks off of the street and paid – however student loans have a major problem attached to them – they are loans and have to be paid back at some point by somebody. Now it’s fine and dandy to offer free advanced educations but the same problem arises at the end of said education – there are NO JOBS. So we go from we will “pay” you directly to attend school vis-a-vie student loans while also receiving welfare to we will let you attend school for free while on welfare and you and I pay for the free part and still NO JOBS. Now 51% of Americans make I believe I recently read less than $30,000 a year and something like 72% make less than $40,000. All or a great majority of which receive some form of assistance. So now we sit with a great number of folks with degrees and advanced degrees and no hope for the future and we’ll offer free educations aging with no hope for the future unless of course you r great goal in life is to be a bartender, waiter or health care worker. Now in my youth the number of folks with degrees was given current conditions still fairly small – while most of our neighbors excluding teachers were laborers, carpenters, brick layers, electricians, plumbers, firemen and policeman. What we have is now is a work force that has forgotten how to work or doesn’t have the basic skill set to be any of the above. So if there was a war with the US sitting at an incredibly low industrial base – where are the citizens that can perform those jobs when they have been paid for a couple of decades to not work? And I might add which of these citizens really want to put their lives at risk in the Military – Oh I’m sure there are a few but come on.
    The Fed and the markets – I think they are going to go full Euro and take the Fed Funds rate – Negative. They think #1 the TBTF banks will be forced to lend – they will not. Then the banks will charge you for holding funds thinking you will buy another house, car, motorcycle, second home or what other fantasy they can come up with. Once that dust settles the banks will take the excess reserves and Sorry George go further out on the curve and buy more bonds – remember Bernanke? Rates will not normalize in my lifetime. Now if this forces other countries to lower rates that acts as if the FED is raining rates and fewer dollars buy more stock. I also think they will drop cash from helicopters directly to the poor but not you and I. It will be a debit card and unfortunately will “NOT” be used to pay down debt – student loans, auto’s or mortgages but you can have big screen TV’s for every room in your apartment (hovel) I know I think too much. Lastly – why didn’t someone ask Hillary who Ambassador Stevens was either funding or selling arms to in Benghazi?

    • Ahhh…Excellent question there…AFAIK Stevens was a CIA asset, charged with funneling ‘assets’ to Syria through our ‘allies’. He was supposedly killed by Libyan factions. The first denial of assistance was from the CIA agent in charge. Why? Although I have absolutely no proof, just a wild ass guess, it would not surprise me if it was Russian ops that did the dirty deed, sending a message that they were not going to stand by and watch their last outpost in the ME be destroyed. What we haven’t been told is the true nature of the operation he was in charge of and who was running it. Was it State or CIA, NSA…? If indeed it was the Russians, I can see why all the obfuscation: Benghazi, emails, etc…anything to muddy the water. With all the blather on these subjects, what have we the people actually learned? Nothing of value, just a lot of hot air and finger pointing that will go absolutely nowhere. After all, who would want to have to tell the American people that Russian SF shut down an illegal operation that we were running to support an illegal program of regime change by supporting the very ‘terrorist’ groups we have supposedly been fighting. Having to tell the American people that we have had a confrontation with Russia would be disaster, how in the world could they spin that one?. Especially if the Russians threatened to reveal that we were arming (and creating) the very terrorists we are fighting, which is in itself illegal. They have recently exposed the behind the scenes mascinations of Turkey, Saudi, Israel and Jordan. They found an area adjacent to Jordan that has no villages, military facilities or strategic value that has been repeatedly bombed. I guess that’s how we flew thousands of sorties and supposedly killed 20,000+ ‘terrorists’ and made no difference. Russia has killed ‘terrorists’ numbered in the hundreds and everyone can see what a difference that has made to date. Russia has just called BS on all of it.

  2. The Chinese are already here . Happily ensconced
    In the Bahamas with the help and gratitude of the HBIC. Head buffoon in charge. Sources say they will end up owning the giant white elephant baha mar and ripping off that silly Armenian for 900 mil. Why else would they be investing millions in Nassau when it’s a cesspool of crime and corruption. They are there to stay and the Bahamians better learn mandarin.

  3. Excellent work George! Sooner rather than later would be my bet too. We can’t build the NATO versions of Global Hawk fast enough. Real time scenario’s are now in play at the table of Global High Stakes Poker! Who would of thought the wheel would be lost on our Nation, like on Gilligan’s Island.

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