I told you so!
Here’s what we posted Monday:
We already know this all ends badly.
The reason is simple: The Wave 1 down whacked BTC from the $61,411 range (November around when stocks peaked, too) down to around $35,070 January 22. thousand. Rounding-off (because of insufficient coffee to deal with decimals) call it a $26,341 of decline.
Remember, Wave 1’s are usually a clue as to Wave 3’s. They tend to be 1.5 times the Wave 1. This is a noisy relationship, but reliable enough to offer hints. 1.5 times $26,341 is $39,511, right?
HOWEVER, there are a ton of Wave 3s that are 1.6 times (See the .618 Fibonacci number). In which case, a possible Wave 3 down might be $42,145.
Here is the problem: Wave 2 only climbed to (March 29) $47,454.
This stakes out a Wave 3 bottom that could be (optimistically) $7,843. Or, even grimmer, $5,309.
Even when this disaster area is reached, BTC is not out of the woods. Because if this is five waves down – not three – then the final collapse after a rally back up to the $35,000 range – would be a large negative number, Meaning the “end of the line for the big digital tulip wilt (BDTW).
The Blow-Down Hoe-Down
The stock market is quickly entering into Mad Max world of finance pretty damn quickly. I mean, you saw where Q1 was negative on GDP this week, right? We are just ending Q2, but if this one is negative, we could be in our long-expected Recession by Q3 already.
As the levered (fools) in digital tulips have to unload assets to cover asses, the stock market is in decline as well. Already early today futures were down 350 on the Dow and 51 on the S&P.
Of course, no surprise because in our moving orange target zone circle, we still have much lower to go:
Oftentimes in markets, the third of the third wave structures are where the real carnage takes place. Frankly, what I’d like to see today would be a decline to just under the mid-channel trend line. Then a closing holiday rally to run some of the shorts off going into the close tomorrow.
Then Tuesday or Wednesday of next week? That’s when the carnage odds go up – though this is NOT a recommendation or financial advice. Just don’t sit too close to your stock trading monitor – don’t want to get splattered with blood next week.
How About a Fairytale?
Oh, goody! But first, a little edjumacation is in order.
John Williams, over at the highly regarded Shadow Government Stats site here figures that an honest reading of data would put the present inflation run rate somewhere in the 11-12 percent range. Officially? Who cares.? Government lies not so much overtly by misdirection and people being stupid and all (look at your co-workers, right?) it’s not that hard to pull off.
Take inflation of home prices. Government can take the view that if you have a $400,000 home and inflation is running 15% in housing, that your income for the year just went up $60,000. Because – it could be argued – your net worth went up and besides, you could (if you’re really stupid with rates heading skyward) refi, pull the money out and have some extra cash to buy more worthless shit with. (Is this a great country, or what?)
However, if you don’t play real estate collapse leaving you upside down with an unpayable note when the layoffs come roulette – just make plain house payments – then you get hosed. PATIENCE – we meek will inherit the Earth (and the structures and appurtenances thereto) – just takes a while.
Just remember the appurtenances will be inflating like mad, too…
Which is why – even with America already one quarter down (which means halfway to recession) that it is possible – almost unavoidable – that Personal income will go up.
Which rolls us into this morning’s Government gewgaw about money we don’t really have handy.
Personal income increased $113.4 billion (0.5 percent) in May, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (tables 3 and 5). Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $96.5 billion (0.5 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $32.7 billion (0.2 percent).
Real DPI decreased 0.1 percent in May and Real PCE decreased 0.4 percent; goods decreased 1.6 percent and services increased 0.3 percent (tables 5 and 7). The PCE price index increased 0.6 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.3 percent (table 9).
Can the hype. We think by a week from now the market COULD be much lower. Like below the recent June 16th Aggregate Index low of 30,870.04. Futures pencil this morning out to 31,764.78 so less than a thousand down from the likely opening.
You might want to bring Band-Aids to the Tuesday morning column next week.
U.I. Filings Data
Little changed:
Strange Dream
Vivid and lucid dream overnight which might mean something to the CPAs and Financial Planners who follow our work.
Some old, wizened figure was showing me around the (on the way) financial disaster and we were chatting about global collapse and what drove it all. I tossed out the usual candidates: Debased fiat money, the rise of minutia (PC/woke silliness) to the level of importance, utter corruption and dereliction of congress and the Federal debt house of cards.
“No, George. You have it all wrong. The whole basis of collapse is a 90-year recapture of accumulated and distributed depreciation.”
I protested for a few minutes but was told to “wake up and go think about it.” Which I duly report as odd woo-woo.
Nightmarish Coming Attractions
I keep watching the father-son fishermen’s videos of Lake Mead which supplies Las Vegas with water. Wondering how long before water crisis forces the relocation of a million people plus from there?
No idea how to provide jobs or housing for them. It’s a cinch the government will be clueless. Slow Biden is shoveling money into Ukraine while leaving the Mexico border open and pissing away money on woke/correct nonsense that will be needed to house and feed Las Vegans, if trends continue.
You ever worry (like we do) that continuity of government is code for “can’t learn from our mistakes?”
Second nightmare – if that one isn’t a big enough one for you:
I just sent in our homeowner insurance for the year ($1,300 range) and actually had to think through whether if – in the coming year – we have a loss to claim – whether the insurance industry will remain well-heeled enough to actually make-good on claims?
I paid – pretty sure it’s a good bet now. BUT, next year? There the odds seem to hit an inflection point. And when tons of people stop writing checks, how quickly will insurance companies get into a selling of assets spree?
Well, we’re in the Wave 3 down now, and while a rally in Wave 4 is out there somewhere, the fifth wave down is when insurance gets to be an increasingly complex wager. Will they stand up? Hmm…
We talk about stress testing of banks and such but what about insurance companies and their investments? How many would be right-side up after a 50 percent market decline?
Sewage Outfall on Parade!
Line up and watch as…
Escape from Cinder Planet? China Reveals Massive Project to Find ‘Earth 2.0.
While, in the meantime, The World Can’t Wean Itself Off Chinese Lithium | WIRED
“Vax me, pill me, any way you want me…long as you vote me, it’s alright…” Pfizer Seeks Full FDA Approval For Covid Antiviral Pill Paxlovid (forbes.com)
The sluggish state to WW III: Russia and China slam NATO after alliance raises alarm | The Hill
Border blowback for Pops from the liberal press: Biden urged to do more on migration after 53 die in smuggling accident (usatoday.com). Strangely, though, the LMSM (liberal mainstream media) can’t see to stop beating the war drums in Ukraine.
Data breach du jour: NFT giant OpenSea reports major email data breach – TechCrunch
And why are we not surprised? US newspapers continuing to die at rate of 2 each week | AP News
As a long-ago reporter, I see a huge danger to freedom in the concentration of power in the hands of software – and out of human hands. Much of what passes as “local coverage” in stories can be creatively spun up by software. Go look at sites like https://spinnerchief.com and other content rewriting services.
All it will take will be a few small changes (*hero’s name, site of action descriptions and the like) and I should be able to generate a whole new novel – maybe several – from one novel I’ve written.
Couple all this with bot swarms to control our thinking via social media? Now, you begin to see how humans are on the verge of obsolescence!
Write when you get rich,
George@Ure.net
https://ussanews.com/2022/06/26/home-showings-across-us-plunge-24-mortgage-rates-remain-elevated/
Wonder if Mark could give us some insight into this? I am sure things are still booming in his area.
Houses are still booming in the Bay Area because that’s where the jobs are. My main relocation/referral contact said she is busier than she has ever been, which makes me busier than I have ever been. The only difference is that we are seeing an end to massive overbids…which in my opinion is a good thing. In 2021 and first quarter 2022, our average sales were overbid from the original listing price by $395,000. Today they are less than a $100,000 on average and my last 7 sales last week were at the list price and three were below the list price…slightly. That doesn’t mean the housing market is crashing…prices of housing are up 143% since 2012 and up 32% from 2019. Anyone who has bought their home in the last 10 years is doing well. Of course, anyone who bought their home more than 10 years ago is doing way better. There is more inventory on the market and Days on market have gone from 12 days to over 20…but they are still selling. As with everything else, housing is cyclical. Play the long game and “Every little thing…Will be alright”.
Mark, layoffs and sales declines (even in the red hot Bay Area), reality check time:
https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/Compass-Redfin-announce-layoffs-17244181.php#:~:text=June%2015%2C%202022%20Updated%3A%20June,15%2C%202022%202%3A19%20p.m.&text=Two%20major%20real%20estate%20firms,affected%20in%20the%20Bay%20Area.
Tech’s a wreck and bitcoin just got more ‘bitter’ LOL! (layoffs in addition to drop of value in cryptocurrency)
https://techcrunch.com/2022/06/17/layoffs-crypto-real-estate-tech-june/
Republican Real Estate tip, ‘Walls don’t taste better with ketchup’ (Trump threw his lunch at the wall after hearing Barr say there was no stolen election)
https://sports.yahoo.com/trump-threw-food-wall-anger-212100898.html
“Nightmarish Coming Attractions
As the levered (fools) in digital tulips have to unload assets to cover asses,”
I am already in it knee deep lol lol.. and so are the vast majority of the people here..
https://youtu.be/Yjyj8qnqkYI
Mark can paint it any color he wants from mount Olympus.. at street level it sucks..and the view if the future is even dimmer as Herbert and cackling Cathy proceed to advance their national plans..
And remember – there ain’t no poop on his streets. That’s just signs of life.
I have no doubt things are still booming in his area. SillyCON Valley is FairytaleLand. Because of that, I suspect Mark has no grasp on reality whatsoever, regarding the rest of CONUS and Lower Canada.
Oh yeah. I spoke to a couple people up here. Home owners and their taxes on their house are skyrocketing. With the new taxes on their house because of inflation raising the price of their homes almost all their taxes went up so high their monthly house payment went up $1000 some people said their home owners taxes raised their monthly payment $1500 to $2000 a month and they already getting their ass kicked at the grocery store and gas pump. Now their house payment because the tax adjustments has in some cases doubled their house payment.
That is fucking crazy!!!!
One of my friends said her house payment went from $2000 a month to $3850 because the government raised their property taxes. She said fuck dude. I can barely make my house payment now, because the price of gas and food. And the government just doubled my house payment. What the fuck am I going to do? I have 3 teen age boys at home I can barely feed.
I’m in Michigan and there is a property tax rule:
“In Michigan, a property’s taxable value will increase from one year to the next by the rate of inflation or 5%, whichever is less, until ownership of the property is transferred.”
That’s why I don’t want to sell. If I sell my house and buy another, the new house will be a ‘transfer’ to me, my taxes will triple+. My house is paid-off and my monthly nut – taxes and insurance – is under $350 a month.
But here’s the thing. Because my taxes don’t rise I do notice parts of the city being neglected. City staff would never make wage concessions or vehicle concessions. Last Sunday I saw city vehicles driving around. Personal use or city staff is getting Sunday wages.
That’s why we need a mega collapse. Shake the fleas.
Yes we have the same issues here to Andy… low income rent for one gent that is a friend of mine… went to sixteen hundred.. his retirement is twelve hundred.. and he doesn’t qualify for any govt.. programs.. companies are working salaried employees longer hours and cutting hour wage earners.. groceries and other regular payment s.. are going up drastically.. garbage for us.. this month twenty dollars more plus tax than two months ago.. they had to raise the costs.. heating gas.. up five percent if I am not mistaken.. and will be going up more in the near future..
I have ranted about these types of scenarios at length in the past, and I will just make a few summary comments.
Andy- Your friend must consider selling while the selling is good. If she and her teens can drive away from debt slavery in a cash vehicle with no strings, that is her best course. If she is in danger of a default, you need to help her preposition assets and supplies out of the way of the court-sanctioned pillagers.
And yes, I know what I am saying is cruel, and I’m sure your friend deserves better, but at some point, you have to cut your losses.
This scenario is why when I hear people with a livable cash home discussing selling and moving to a newer high property tax neighborhood, and into debt slavery, I get upset.
In depressions, all debt is liquidated, and Ure debt slave readers hit the streets. Live below your means on a cash basis. Pay the insurance ghouls. Protect yourself.
Before the liquidations end, we will see people who were out of debt losing homes because of real estate taxes. The debt slave brokees don’t stand a chance.
I told her. You vote republican, that is what you do. She has been a diehard Democrat her whole life and she said to me on the phone. Let’s go Brandon! Everyone will be living under an over pass if this shit keeps going like this.
I said, yep. It’s not getting any better. It’s going to get alot worse.
well take a look andy.. the Republicans are not saying a word against what the administration is doing.. not one word.. or if they are it sure isn’t being shared on the news anywhere.. even the one from Texas that ran for president..I figured he would say something.. has been as quiet as a church mouse..
the symbol I get is they are all feeders at the troughs in DC..
It’s the Republicans that have caused the issues with property taxes. The states that have no income tax have ti get their money somewhere, so property taxes is where they get it. Take Texas…The more they try to get people to move there, puts a pressure on their housing inventory and driving up prices. Guess what else goes up in price? Their property taxes. Unlike California, which basically caps property taxes based on the original purchase price for life, Sone if the Red states with no income taxes do not. The more people are lured there, demand exceeds demand and prices and taxes go up.
Another GOP mess is Trumps cap of only $750,000 on the SALT deduction. Most big cities, and especially Texas, California, Washington, Virginia, Arizona, Colorado and Florida have many areas where homes are worth two-three times that much. Before, we could deduct our interest on a much higher cap. Now, only to $750k . That decreased my deductions tremendously and I pay out a heck of a lot more Taxes than I used to prior to the last administration.
Unfortunately this is one thing I will agree with you on Mark. The last school bond election I keep harping on was backed by none other than Republicans. The very WORST of that breed that wanted to raise the taxes so little people couldn’t pay them and move ’em out so people could buy up the property for nothing and turn it for bigger bucks. The worst Republicans worship money and don’t care who they step on or what lands they ruin to make more of it all the time. The tide is turning, though, as something resembling morality is creeping back into the picture only because it’s forced to around here and especially as the recession begins to take its toll. When the end of the water supply starts to resemble Lake Mead it will happen much faster than that situation on the Colorado River and this place will resemble a ghost town. A tribute to the greed of the worst people that claim membership to an otherwise once-reputable party.
Agreed. Where I live, there is a grand total of, maybe, 5 large-scaled business operations. One is a theme park that has been struggling since covid struck. If this year doesn’t do them in, I’d be surprised. Another one, is the coal fired power plant, slated to closed up shop in 6-8 years. The county RELIES on these guys for alot of donated time/$$, etc for charities, church and school funded events and projects, and any other public service event. The county reassessed properties and tried like hell to bump up income from the property owners as they know the corporate gravy train is almost over. Problem is, once these guys are no more, most of the property owners will flee to where ever they can find a job that remotely pays what they used to make. It’s a double whammy for the local gov, imo. The county will go back to being dirt poor again, and have to severely cut back, because they’ve got no back up plan to rely on when this happens. People like myself, the ones who straddled that line of middle class, will be fighting a losing battle to stay afloat. Uping my property taxes just means I have more reason to leave, than to stay.
I thought Indiana had strict property tax caps?
They do, Ray, but that doesn’t stop them from taking it to the very limit. Those limits might serve Indianapolis well, but the county I am in? The majority of people here are the working poor. A hit on their taxes, after everything else going up? There aren’t enough jobs to make up for the economic destruction to them.
I went naked on HOI 2 years ago. I can’t see getting a $8000 loss in the next 10 years. ( $800 /year cost ). It is liability that bothers me.
That’s the main reason we keep ours – the liability issues in the country
It’s a risk, but keeping your property fully functional and legally encumbered can reduce the risk of random litigation. Nothing can fully prevent that though, so you have to live with that risk. Most Americans are highly risk averse, so they insure far more than they might at a very high cost. Insurance companies are in business to make money, as is virtually everyone else. One problem with a bank mortgage is that you must insure, and do so according to their standards. If you get rid of a bank mortgage, you have the choice. Other encumbrances are generally more negotiable.
Other than that, live your life to avoid litigation as much as possible. Donald Trump encouraged it, but he has the personality, resources, and connections to play that game. Many/most risks in life are effectively uninsurable. Then again, think about car insurance. It’s required and has serious legal consequences if you don’t have it. Not so much from crashes, but from law enforcement. Considering that most people are driving far less these days, why are insurance rates not reflecting that? Why are we insuring each of our cars when we can only drive one at a time? Why not have insurance on each driver rather than on cars? All of these things are deliberately set up to create economic profits.
During Super Bowl last year. The tenant ran a load in the washing machine and went to the bar to party. He is a coder and work at the house and his home 23 hours a day. Bad luck.. Machine flooded the bottom floor two bedroom unit. $25,000 in repairs to the structure. Sometimes insurance does work.
You mean that they actually paid! I’m shocked.
Shoot where did you find a bargain like that..car and HOI runs 600 a month for me..lol
I was included as part of the Northweast blackout of 2003. At that time I lived in an apartment.
The folk in the subdivision behind the apartment complex were partying down even blowing off large fireworks.
Nobody had water pressure during the power outage. So I have HOI for major loss. No extra riders. Not to mention I have dyed/stamped concrete out front which I seal with high gloss.
A couple of years ago I was passing out candy to the Trick or Treat’ers and it was raining that Halloween. Some guy mentioned my walk was slippery. I tried to explain that was just the look and the walk is perfectly safe. He was convinced, or looking for a lawsuit.
But these are different scenarios then the insurance companies going over the falls with the money markets.
Let the roosters crow G – let em crow.
Monsoon rains are back..filling up all those recently constructed Cisterns. Obviously the really smart, sharp ones out there (west/southwest) put in cisterns over the past couple of years. The rest of the sheeps – they are waiting 4 uncle to deliver them from their grievous mistakes. Dam shame you cant Drink or Eat stimulus checks/digi deposits.
Really looking forward to observing the Sun as it zooms in on those hapless idiots https://youtu.be/EfK-WX2pa8c…nice tan ya got there geniuses.
BTC is . You should prolly try to start getting over IT, as it acts like a detrimental mind worm por vous. Gold basis is ???? Who has all the Gold ???? surely no the NOT federal reserve bank…where did it all go ?
Prove the Amount, Prove the Assay/Quality..
Houston we gotz a global clusterF of a problem..whoops.
Why are PM’s not doing better in this obviously high inflation? I presume it’s partly from the sucking out of nominal “value” from BTC and other hashes. Also from the stock market declines, I’m sure. Still we have WW3 on the horizon and the current Ukraine idiocy, so that should have put a premium on metals. Yes, there’s the USDX that’s holding high, so I can only presume that the rest of the world is doing even worse than we are. Is there anywhere left to store value at all?
The PM market is highly manipulated (hence Len’s rantings.) It is currently undervalued, which I suspect is from the whales, trickling gold and platinum back into the markets, to cover their hindsides, and I suspect they are trickling the PMs to avoid collapsing the market and ending up under a viaduct.
IMHO PM’s are being kept artificially low. When the fiat currency plays out and the government is forced to go back onto the gold standard, the PTB can confiscate the PM’s at bargain prices and then inflate their worth shortly after the confiscation deadline date.
History repeats itself. If there’s a more logical explanation, I’d really like to hear it.
I sure wish I could understand what Len is saying! I’m sure there’s good info there, but it’s really lost in translation. Something about PM’s, I suppose.
Regarding “confiscation”, aka theft: I doubt if much of anything would surface. The last time around in the 30’s, I’ve read that only about 10% of the real money was actually turned in. Most of those folks have passed into the afterlife, so that lesson is probably forgotten by the current DC mob.
“forces the relocation”
At the beginning the relocation will be orderly. Nearer to midpoint the scrappers come. Then the time you don’t want to be there comes, lawlessness.
Leave first if you get the chance.
All the LV police will need their pension funds bailed out. Probably the sewer workers too. Why not? Boeing is out begging again. And they’ll get it. Instead of minimum wage being $15.00, let’s make it $25.00 and bail them all out.
PBGC will snag the underfunded/pay-as-you-go “Culinary Workers Union” pensions.
It might be a good idea to buy an acre of land in Clark County now for the later disaster claims.
How can this work –
Cheaper than buying an acre…. form a corporation and rent a mobile/manufactured home in Las Vegas. Somehow have the corporation claim residency in the trailer so when relocation funds become available the corporation would be eligible for the funds.
Or is an acre really the best idea considering an open acre is a blank slate and can be $ value unlimited. If a business plan shows the property can produce and government forces relocation the owners should be made whole. Who will be around to check the site in the future. C’mon, a casino town???
“It might be a good idea to buy an acre of land in Clark County now for the later disaster claims.”
I think I’d rather buy it in 5 years, when it’ll be $250 (after inflation…)
This morning’s wake-up dream, the last one I remembered, was some douche bag tossing a grenade into the car while we were stopped in traffic. The brain rejected it and the rest of the dream was me going through different scenarios trying to either toss it out or batting it away and getting a shot off at the perp. Still needed coffee after that, though.
On the house insurance front we may be going “commando” on the one house I’ve ever put insurance on this year. We’ve never had insurance on our primary abode which is one way we’re actually able to feed ourselves and the livestock. (Yes, we ARE dangerous and we live that way) The insurance company we had last year is discontinuing their coverage in this area according to the group we’ve been buying it through. The house had to be reclassified as “vacant” this time around since we don’t spend that much time there (wait till the next total outage, though) which shot the price of a policy up from a little over $1400 on a new policy, before reclassification, to $2200 – and this was after reducing the replacement value to a little more than what the tax appraisers had agreed to reduce it to last year! I rejected the $2200 price for the new policy and they’re looking around to see if they can find anything less. Last year’s policy was a little over $1700, up a bit from the previous. Had an attempted break-in last Fall but the damage wasn’t enough to file for. Typical coverage.
Just dropped 3 large and lunch money on a new 5 ton compressor with recharge for the A/C yesterday, too, at that house so I’m going by to see if it’s still running sometime today. It was in the 90s in the house and it wasn’t worth opening the windows so the new compressor had a job on its hands. The poor fridge was doing overtime even with the ceiling fan above it going to keep the air circulating. I’d asked the kids to go by and see if the A/C was running while we were in San Antonio and they said the fan was on. “Uh huh, but was the outside compressor blowing hot air?”, I asked. “Dunno, I’ll check again later”, said she. (Eye roll) So the fan ran for a few days straight and the electric bill may actually get into the high double digits this time (Bulb Electric provider company). Buy ’em books, send ’em ta school and what do they do on the covers ….
I’m hoping that, looking back, this repair on the A/C will be like the others I’m trying to get accomplished before the apocalypse – while parts are still available and money still buys stuff. I don’t give a hang if the bottom falls out of the housing market. As a matter of fact I’ll welcome it because eventually that house’s value will fall to what it ought to be and not that of a bunch of reconditioned ones in the area. In the mean time the appraisers will still have their over-the-top B.S. evaluations that they radio in all the time.
On another note, though, the wife is telling me that the checks she’s depositing are taking a couple of days to clear – and then only partially. And this is from a local bank that has handled livestock payments in the area for several generations and other banks and credit unions with the checks going to the local fire department of which she does the books for. This is unprecedented in our experience so keep an eye on your banks out there! Other people have been saying to keep a good supply of cash on hand and, as long as it buys stuff and there’s stuff to buy, it sounds more and more like a good thing to do. I know George has said this many times.
Hey Kids!
Is it only just over a decade since China-headquartered ByteDance issued its first app, Neihan Duanzi (Profound Gags)? The CCP no doubt thanks all for their global friends for uploading stuff to ByteDance subsidiary TikTok. Keep uploading the uploading!
Okay, over to DJ Ure in studio ready to torque the console monkey wrenches with
” Watch Us Work It”
Devo
What America needs is big ideas. Musk has a few but not enough support.
Death Valley, as example, should be turned into a massive desalination plant. Gravity feed water in from the Pacific through bored holes.
Use the temperature swing energy to turn turbines for a second bird.
The minimum elevation to generate power at Hoover Dam is 1,050 feet, according to the National Park Service. Below this level, the reservoir would be considered an “inactive pool.” Dead Pool ? Meaning the water level is so low that it is below the dams outlets. No water flow out and no power generation.
On Thursday it measured 1,043.8 feet, its lowest level since the lake was filled in the 1930s. So the Bureau of Reclamation did a fast-dance on the math and ‘now’ says the Dead Pool Level is 950 feet. 100 ft to go, using the new, improved federal math.
Last year Lake mead dropped 26 feet. This year, with restrictions in place it is expected to drop 23+ feet. At current drop average., they have three years left.
As I understand it, “inactive pool” is when the water level falls below that which is safe to drive the turbines and generators with. “Dead pool” is when the level is too low to flow over or through the dam and it becomes stagnant. I’m sure others will correct me if I’m wrong.
Since the lake is V shaped, the rate of drop for a constant inflow is accelerating. I’d say this summer will be a severe warning if not a crisis. Lake Powell is low too and I don’t know if they can release enough water to make a difference. The monsoon season is here and I don’t know if it’s making any difference yet out that way.
And as things typically go it’ll probably be more like Hemingway’s description of how he went broke.
Starting tomorrow, we’ll be in the third quarter, which is the one from which inflation is measured for SS COLA. I wonder if we’ll have significant inflation according to their model, or if the system will act to keep the COLA down?
“Official” COL numbers have been gamed to keep FICA COLA as low as possible, for as long as I’ve been aware, which is back to the ’70s when my Dad began to draw SocSec.
I don’t see the Bastards On The Hill “BOTH” (parties) changing their gaming philosophy now. BTW, heard an extraneous money-talker today in-passing, who said that without the $1.5 trillion that illegal aliens have donated to the system since y2k, via fake SocSec accounts, the FICA would already be bankrupt…
Explainer: How would U.S. corporate abortion travel benefits work?
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/how-would-us-corporate-abortion-travel-benefits-work-2022-06-30/
Goldman Sachs partners with Derivative Path to grow transaction banking … (interesting name?)
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/goldman-sachs-partners-with-derivative-path-grow-transaction-banking-2022-06-30/
Wall Street plunges, S&P 500 set for worst first-half since 1970 …
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/futures-tumble-last-day-torrid-first-half-growth-fears-2022-06-30/
Throw in a potentially Dangerous Comet …
https://www.newsweek.com/comet-c-2017-k2-solar-system-oort-cloud-1720255?amp=1
And I’m out here like …
https://youtu.be/p-T6aaRV9HY
About that increased home equity being increased income… If that untapped equity isn’t converted to cash in your pocket somehow, then it is unrealized and doesn’t count as gained income… Same rules as those for investments like stocks, bonds, antiques, and online girlfriends, no?
Monetizing an online girlfriend? That’s possible, I suppose(think OnlyFans), but it takes a very special type of person to pull that one off. I don’t know how you’d get a loan against a girlfriend, but any of the others could act as collateral for a loan and you could spend it all without reporting requirements. Then BK? Shades of Caymans!
The Biden Administration is trying to find a way to claim “unrealized income” as a taxable asset. The more-conservative of the FP dudes and dudettes have been screaming on the radio about it for months, because the plan is to tax all capital and financial gains y-o-y, based on dollar (not intrinsic) value, instead of realized gain when the asset is actually disposed of (and not credit y-o-y or realized losses.) ‘Thing is, except for the Dave Ramsey show I think only about three people listen to “money-talk” radio programs.
It’s an elegant way to force us to finance our own hyperinflation…
I’m not sure how that could be done except for obvious things like securities in a street name. Real estate is always in plain sight and at risk, as are registered vehicles, but all other assets would either disappear in that scenario and/or be replaced by absolute junk. There are many ways to destroy the asset value of something, not the least is a highly encumbered title, and/or compensating liabilities.
The Laffer curve is real. We’re at the level of taxation and regulation that beyond the necessities of life, there’s little reason to work harder. Three felonies a day, even if you try to avoid them. For most of us, status has run its course and we’ve lost whatever looks we had. Fungible net worth is being destroyed though manipulation and inflation. The things that still matter are kindness, compassion, and integrity in this world of deceit. To date, I’ve not seen any plans or ability to tax those.
Oh yeah!!!! I run heavy haul construction, gravel, dirt asphalt shit like that. We run 105,500lbs. Never under 100k.
They got some new kid on the loader and he kept loading everyone to 80 to 90k. All day long for 2 days all these salty truckers on the cb kept saying all fucking day long. ” you better get your shit together Mister! We aint hauling groceries for Walmart here!” Because grocery truckers haul at 80k. Not 105k.
All day long. Same thing for 2 days straight till they put a different guy on the loader.
Don’t hear that every day. “You better get your shit together, we aint hauling groceries for Walmart here.”
Like collective chant all day.
Guys were yelling. ” You see groceries written on the side of my door? Nope! Because we aint hauling no groceries. Especially here!”
I was tripping. You have to have thick skin to work in the quarys and mines. Talk about a subconscious leak. Holy cow! If what we speak creats our reality? That there is a sign.
Hauled out of one of the largest “Rock salt mines” in the northeast for yrs and yrs……. Tough Bunch
105 ??? When ya goin to put a load on that ???
102,000 on 5 axles here, 107,000 on 6 and…………
117,000 on 7…….. All here in the Empire State. Try that with all the traffic and congestion we deal with everyday !!!
Love all your posts mister, don’t never ever give up !!!!!!!
When I see traffic? I think cool. More money for me. I was stuck in a parking lot last night on the free way while on double time. Turn up the tunes and enjoy getting paid. No Mam you don’t even need a turn signal I will let you get right in front of me. Hahah.
Ya well in Washington state we have to have 8 axels to do 105. Heaviest I’ve ever been was 135k in a tnt Hahah on that Bertha tunnel project. But if you tell DOT? I’d call ya a lier. Hahahaha
I used to see atleast one fist fight a day up in the Mines. Eveyone friends by the end of the day. Haha. When your blowing shit up, running heavy all day a million miles an hour, 14- 18 hours a day 6 and 7 days a week? People get a litte testy in the morning until the coffee kicks in about pot 10. Hahaha.
“We run 105,500lbs. Never under 100k.”
Lol lol lol my truck use to weigh an average of 170,000…. we would be overweight a lot of the times lol.. our truck was a dinosaur..we desperately needed a new tractor.. well it went up for the discussion..and one of the men on the board happened to own a dealership..he could save us money..
They ordered the new tractor.. got it but instead of a heavy hauler..they got a tractor with a pickup motor lol lol lol lol.. the fastest the thing would roll down the road with that much weight was a maximum of 4 miles an hour.. needless to say we continued with the dinosaur.. but would have to use it when breakdowns happened.. kids on tricycles would pass you as you roared down the road..no air no radio the window cranks didn’t work..and a thirty plus mile trip..one way..it was a long trip lol lol..anyway.. one day a hypo got stuck behind me..tags wouldn’t drop no air brakes… lol lol lol.. I kept waiting for him to flash me lol lol.. but I’m sure he wondered.. the one that would prosecute would also be the one defending…lol lol. Every time he went to pass a car was there lol lol lol after 25 miles he finally got around me lol lol .. a half hour later I seen him he pulled over the first semi he seen lol lol lol.. I am pretty sure he remembers the longest trip of his life lol lol barreling down the road at 4 miles an hour lol lol lol
Oh the day of that trip happened to be a really hot one to.. I was dying in that cab.. talk about jet lag lol lol lol took a whole day just to get there lol lol…
Stop the presses – G pops. Suggesting it is time – for a re-tool so to speak. Think we need a War Report format on this here best bang for entertainment and media bucks on the internetz! Thats right – Urban is a wonderful form of entertainment, Ure writings, commenters, makes for fun – enjoyable reading and thinking..(“da F is this cat talking about?”)
At this point in game – it is clear as day that We the People are under attack and at WAR. Pedo brennan been leading the charge against US pop.. See it ?
andZo We find the same evil assholes executing on their latest global domination planz – bin werking this “op” since 32 in one form or another..bloodline freqs.
In 2022/23 what will we call tango/muzzie sleeper cellz in USA?
baracks
Gold is picking up some big gann fans here. Especially the hui. Eh . Show you fatso
And luv your country eh? July 4 and all yah talk is crash crash crash and backslap fatso . Hey crash gold is quoted in other currencies too pal . Not just theUSD which is overpriced. Ask fatso about aggregate value
Yah think gold won’t bounce violently fatso . ?
Golds got no use by date . Or the gold bulls
Golds going up inAUD and you wanna screw our gold companies ? Go and get a prime rib a gutfull of whatever poison you drink and fib yourself to pieces . Bang !!!
Better close your gold shorts . That’s for you klaus and Jerome . The facists are in bed with the FED and us government
Up, Up and Away In my Beautiful, My Beautiful Balloon
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UKkNlwpajNk
At least you can get homeowner’s insurance. Living as I do in a defined ‘Lava Risk zone’, no insurance companies will touch our area. I do have liability insurance in case someone gets hurt on my premises. But my ‘fire insurance’ is several strategically handy fire extinguishers. I also rewired my house and replace all outlets to reduce fire risk when I moved in here several years back.
At least it keeps the speculators at bay as no one can get a mortgage without insurance in this area. Cash sales. There is some growth here in buyers of a wild lot, clearing it, and self constructing a small home. Mostly retired folk that are anything but rich… just trying to survive.
From, “The sluggish state to WW III:” …
Member nations have given Ukraine billions in military and civilian aid to strengthen its resistance. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who addressed the summit by video link, asked for more.
He urged NATO to send modern artillery systems and other weapons — or “face a delayed war between Russia and yourself.”
I just can’t get past what’s in quotations. Seems an odd thing to say.
Sanctions are the height of fashion. Today at Wimbledon the Men’s #2 seed, the Russian Medvedev, defeated Spaniard Alcarez 3 sets to nil.
Speaking of Spain, while Wimbledon’s Patron, Duchess Kate was not present in the Royal Box, her cousin-in-law Zara attended the grounds on Tuesday. Her Kate-inspired summer wedges by the Spanish house Castañer were well received.
Meanwhile Thursday up north in the scenic lake district the Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament gave a shoutout via Lancashire Live of Ministry of Defence trucks enroute to Scotland on the M6 Wednesday carrying Trident nuclear missiles.
eh you should all be barking and growing fur by now . no celebrate independence day ? those poor founding fathers seeing you blokes today . gold shorting facists , warmongers , racists
Btw… June was Black Music Appreciation Month.
Black Sabbath-Spiral Architect
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lkx7SQ4Wuh0
Belarusian news agency BelTA reported from Minsk that Belarus will now pay its eurobond holders in Belarusian rubles since not all noteholders (Russia?) received their payment from last February via Citibank.
Separately the president of Belarus has sent a message of greeting to the new Canadian head of the 112 nation charity Sovereign Military Order of Malta. It was founded in Jerusalem in 1099 ad during The First Crusade and has an annual budget of €1.5billion. The group appears to have been represented on the ground in Ukraine since 2015 and now by a German rep. There was some msm coverage of him at the start of the February invasion then scarcely anything afterwards save for some German mentions in March.
Meanwhile one may recall the charity being promoted along with this Sunday’s NBC Ukraine special is the New York based International Rescue Committee operating in 40 countries, 26 US cities, and headed by a former British Labour Party cabinet minister. The charity’s aim is arguably refugee resettlement. I think you will find that the rescue dot org website pages for various regions – Ukraine, the Sahel, Central America, etc – will each include a statement encouraging refugees to resettle in Europe and/or North America rather than resolving the countries of origins problems precipitating the crises which created dislocation.
Quite the dynamic playing out here at the time of this writing: Wonder where along the road map VonMises would be putting us ?
$20.00/Oz
https://online.kitco.com/sell/gold-silver.html?utm_source=kitcosilver.com&utm_campaign=2020-11-13-Rhodium-buyback-awareness-nov2020&utm_medium=25&utm_content=banner_kitcosilver-home-small-box-1#AG
$67.00/Oz
https://catalog.usmint.gov/coins/silver-coins/
https://youtu.be/g98hlyZbqlU
Just had to share the news conference..
Woof woof yah fing dogs . Short gold on independence weekend . Animals aliens facist priks
Shorting gold to drive the price down at the end of the mid year price manipulation… close short positions, rinse and repeat. Too bad for them, the price is going to the moon. Right again, Sir Loin (Len, LOL)
Wooof wooof . That’s the sound of fatso and his yankee mates . Git full of piss and prime rib shortin gold . Wooof wooof . Sounds like zig Hal or hava nagila . Fatso and pretzel rule with the Fed and king klaus . Da fuhrer 2
Kaniving Klaus Kant Kastrate Kapatilism
Per ure dream. Think bigger. We are at the end if a 6000 year aeon or era.
The wheel you mentioned is a smaller wheel in the middle of a bigger wheel known to some as “Chronus.” Metered movement in development.
Because the material world needs to collapse in order to further advance the spiritual world. That is why. It’s going to be very difficult for many. But reliance on material wealth and luxury “convenience ” has stunted spiritual growth in this realm is what I’m told.
There has been many many calls for people to develop their own concepts and conclusions to advance in spiritual development on this plane of existence. Away from being spoon fed veruous religious doctrine which was originally only meant as a guide to personal development. Not a crutch to lean on. So, all these paradigms that were meant to aid in spiritual development including material stuff is being taken down. So humans can figure it out. If they can’t? Many will perish. All signs say end of an era. Marking the new era. Both doors are open at the same time. One closes another opens. It is up to each person to walk through or they can be born again after.
I have great empathy for eveyone. But humanity must grow up! It’s time to mature spiritually. Afa gardening goes make sure you have seeds doe next year and the year after. Not just plant them this year. Lol.
I had a beautiful lady tell me in not so many words “If you were on fire, i wouldn’t piss on you to put it out.” When all I was doing was being nice and helpful. So I know damn well she really likes me. Hahahahah
I said. Ok. I keep that in mind in the future. Hahahha. She doesn’t know I can see the future. Hahahahah
That covers me on thoughts for a while.
Alright time to shit and get.