The temps dropped in East Texas overnight. The leading edge of expressed “bitterness” in the coming weeks and even months. A period with more of an Angostura bent than most. Tomorrow night, we’ll kiss freezing out here, but that should be the last of Nature’s winter. Man’s winter will be measured in years.
In Economic terms, it is not. Strauss and Howe’s Fourth Turning captured much of the times – conveniently in advance. Plus, other economists saw it. People you may have never heard of; like Elliott Middleton and “Trader Jim” Goulding. It’s been there, since the Depression before it, waiting.
We wanted so much for this period – of the Trump and Biden terms – to become “At last, Winter is over.” False spring, my friend. Bank check.
When the Great Depression peaked in 1929, it was 1931 before bank runs got traction. Now, thanks to the simultaneous stock and crypto zenith, the current TOP is known to be November 8, 2021. From there, a wave 1 down, a wave 2 rally, and we’re now in the rising sense of panic region. Featuring bank runs.
Global confusion abounds even as artificial interventions paper-over rising collapse.
“The Game” was as clear in 1970 when I began chasing news as it is today. Lester Thurow’s Zero Sum Society stated much of the case when published in 1980. World population was 4.5 billion then. Today, with nearly double that (and us defending Ukraine’s borders while Mexico’s remains in shambles), we’re reminded Life has not profoundly changed the human condition in the intervening years. A few more electric cars, more intrusive electronics, voice control here and there. Plus A.I. lurking in the wings. Some of its good, other parts? Not so much. Fake progress.
Beneath this pallor of pseudo-progress, however, lies the Agar Dish Edge Problem. The bacterial humans are eating the last of the Petri dish. The soil is more depleted, the wars are more dangerous. The politics less honest, the formation of families under attack.
Plus, we throw in Educational Revisionism. Where facts don’t matter, as much as shrillness of the victomology graduates. All of whom are special; impatiently waiting to rob us blind if we so much as blink. Aided in their swindles by persuasion-block politics.
Still, with every detent in the standard of living, a new monetization has been found – so far. Gender studies has grown from a notion, then to papers, into a class, a degree, then College, and now uncountable Chairs raising millions.
This is “Progress?” To us, it hints at a barnyard economic principle. Bullshit can be compounded!
I can’t find my copy of Winter is Coming – Goulding’s book, a .PDF from back when if memory serves. 2001-ish. The Kindle version got harsh reviews and I think undeservedly so.
See, while some of the “winter” concept was based on Strauss and Howe, Goulding’s book was a kind of accompaniment. Like a student guide authored by a seasoned Chicago bond trader.
OK: When Is “Bitter” Here?
The Truth is, we’re standing aside from active trading for a week, or two. Because it’s hard telling – as of the close Thursday – how the charts will resolve. We’ll go over a dozen, or so, on Peoplenomics tomorrow. But here’s the “gist of it” chart looks:
As seen in the lower right, three cases appear:
- We lean (based on this being winter) to the market having a sideways to modestly down day, today. Then a continuing downward trend through next week and breaking much, much lower.
- But an almost equal chance exists that the market will pause in here and scream higher next week because if this is a small “wave 1” then a rally to the top of the overhead resistance (top of the newest trend channel) becomes likely at some point.
- The third option – still on the table – is that we go over the present newest trend channel in a week to 10-days. And keep on climbing.
With that, let’s go out into the casino and see what the Table Action hints at this morning… We can even go so far as to draw analogies to “tighten up thinking” about the gambling “action” underway. Perhaps Wars are “craps tables” and bank failures are roulette. Politics might be Texas Hold “em. Something like that.
Prez Xi is going to Moscow to talk with Vlad Putin on the 21st. The West is starting to worry because? China’s Xi to meet Putin as Beijing seeks bolder global role. Taking down America’s “world order” nonsense is a very real risk. And a Rubble-Yuan tie-up under BRICS with stated convertibility is an extreme risk to The Casino operators.
What’s more, with the Taiwan invasion window (weather, Taiwan Strait suitable for military use) only 45-days out, we have to ask if Wave of Stealthy China Cyberattacks Hits U.S., Private Networks, Google Says is a “shaping operation to warn-off the behind-the-times administration from interfering.
And, as a side bet, we have to ask how much of the Biden behavior has been influenced by pass-through funding from his crime family? We’re not the ones asking: House GOP digs in on China-linked payments to Biden family members in new memo.
The Second Craps (war) table is centered over Ukraine. Where the US releases video showing Russian jet intercepting spy drone near Crimea. And the Russians counter by? Russia awards pilots involved in US drone skirmish.
NATO keeps upping their buy-in as Slovakia agrees to give Ukraine fleet of Soviet warplanes.
Watch these craps tables shortly, since a “new shooter” could come at any time. Which would be Israel attacking Iran’s nuclear weapons and assembly program. Which we figure to come over Easter. But, which one? Can’t be sure.
The Charms of Arms is seen in At a Steam-Age Arsenal, U.S. Army Forges Cannons for a Digital Era, War in Ukraine. Visit the museum there. Perhaps some of the docents have excellent taste in websites?
Roulette Table Check
Shall we look in on “Who’s making Bank?”
Are we the ONLY ones to understand that investing in stocks involves RISK and there is no certainty of reward? Pension funds report millions in losses amid Silicon Valley Bank collapse. Does this mean the Sloppy Joe administration will start making market investors whole if a market runs against them? Seriously: WTF? The fund managers grasp of “risk” is the issue.
In the pre-open today: gold was up, the dollar down, which increases the odds slightly of continuation rally today going into the weekend. Not showing in the futures yet. Commercials will want to play in this one if they can light off a rally today or Monday.
Ah, where is Antifa when there is a useful role for them? This is Fascism, SVB Bailout Edition – CounterPunch.org.
In the Shorts
We will keep Friday’s review brief:
Popularity contest of interest: Jews most favorably viewed religious group in U.S., Pew study says. Here, all this time, we thought it was the Church of The Almighty Basis Point.
Speaking of religious fervor: Mike Pence implies that Trump is a fake Christian during speech to room full of journalists. We somehow were overlooked on the coronation invite list to Pence’s Ascencion to Judgement? The spirits speak “Judge not lest yee be judged…” Why didn’t Pence quit Trump’s cast when he could have made a more powerful statement? All sounds like verse 20:24.
Attacks on people’s faith aren’t limited to Trump’s circle, though. Marianne Williamson’s ‘abusive’ treatment of 2020 campaign staff, revealed. Godless media or Godless leaders – getting more difficult than ever to make that call.
ATR: Has East Moved?
My buddy the (*chief of staff) doc in a mid-sized community hospital called a bit distraught Thursday:
“One of my staff practitioners who has been driving to work on the same road for 11-years says the Sun is not far enough north yet for Equinox next week. She’s been making daily notes on the sun for that long because she travels a road that goes due east and then tees with a north-south road.
“She told me, near as she could figure, that the Sun is six weeks late heading into Equinox.”
I assured him that “Scientific journals would be all over this if it were really the case. Roads laid out east-west may not be perfectly aligned. The magnetic lines really do move and can contribute to 15-degrees (or so) of being “off True North.”
“Then there are trees that grow, new building construction, continental drift, road repairs and changes. The odds of East being out of place are infinitesimally small.”
He was only slightly comforted. The woman is a lifelong resident,, the road hasn’t moved, and there’s no construction in the area.
Still, we have our bet on “normal equinox” and if that changes, I’ll owe him a shot of 12-year-old scotch.
Which, this being Friday and all, might not be a bad afternoon “sippance.”
Got income taxes filed yesterday, a much smaller refund than I’d hoped. But like Pappy used to say “Never begrudge paying more taxes. It means you’re doing better than you thought.”
Or they keep working on better ways to swindle the customers in the “Land of the Brave, Home of the Free Casino.”
Pappy had the luxury of living during semi-honest government, honest pension fund managers and a host of other Americana now long-lost to history.
They really need to start putting lithium salts back in 7-Up. At least at tax time.
Write when you get rich,