George Ure

Amazon Author Page: https://www.amazon.com/George-Ure/e/B0098M3VY8%3Fref=dbs_a_mng_rwt_scns_share UrbanSurvival Bio: https://urbansurvival.com/about-george-ure/

Making Money with "Non-Work" (Part 1, Angling for Dough)

Mark Twain, I think it was, said “Work is what a person is obligated to do. Play is everything else…” or words to that effect. With the opening of fresh-water fishing season at hand, we “cast about” for some ideas on how to make money by doing what you like. All in a very personal set of recollections about business learned from (of all things) fishing.

War and Peace – With a Side of Put Options

Tolstoy I am not. Although we seem to have a gambling streak in common, I remain confused just what a “non-violent and spiritual anarchist “ is.  But I do have a good grip on the gambling side, which is why tomorrow morning’s Peoplenomics report will be so interesting.  I developed something called “The Trading Model” which was designed to keep your 401-k or saving from being run over and tossed in the ditch.

Still, we have to admit the title “War and Peace” is a pretty novel way of framing the morning’s news, especially because it’s Tolstoy’s homeland that is warning of civil war if Ukraine uses force to put down the Eastern uprisings which will (unchecked) cede more of the former Ukraine back to Russia.

War in never civil, even if that’s the term.  And by now, you have likely read James Dunnigan’s works on war, what goes into them and so forth.

The hell of it is that  I’m pretty sure that Donetsk will fall, say next week, and that should put us in a position to rally from pending lows (specific targets tomorrow) back up before the Russian moves on the whole of Europe ramp up in May, if I have anticipated their timing right.

This morning, the market is not taking the news particularly well.  After killing 166 points in the Dow Monday, another loss seems likely today, and into next week’s options expiration at which time U know who will be buying up armloads for the next cycle (May).  I generally don’t play options anymore, but when news events and history seem to lay out a path to “rob the bank” with limited risk, it’s a WTF decision.

War isn’t the only thing weighing on the market this morning.

The Federal Reserve’s Consumer Credit (it’s really debt, but in banking it’s always about me, me, me, and the me in this case is creditors) Report that came out yesterday.  Revolving credit card use is cratering again, going down at an annualized rate of 3.4%.  Sure, there was some improvement in non-revolving debt, but that was from things like student loans.

See footnote #7 and the gain under major types of credit by holder to “federal government” over here.

I’ve said before – but it bears repeating – that in a real recovery, the consumers is doing something besides buying cars, borrowing money to pay taxes, and scrimping to pay HUGE healthcare premiums.  The real solution is found is barring credit card companies from charging delinquent people more than regular interest – knock off this 30% whack on the pee-pee stuff that jams people down into debt and just fattens up the banks stress test line and ultimately just grows the divided between the haves and the have-nots.

I know this is dirt-simple and should be apparent, but it seems to be beyond the grasp of more than 500 Fools on the Hill or the guy down the Pennsylvania Avenue from them.

Hence, this morning’s outlook:  People are buying gold because they don’t trust a) Russia and b) the US.

Of course, there is the falling tech angle, too.  This is making headlines in places like the Financial Times.  Of course, if you had read my March 27th report (A “Social Decline” in Motion?) you would not be the least bit surprised.

Thus, we fearlessly forecast an S&P that could hit 1,751 within a week or two, (or Friday) which could jam gold up to the $1,375  range, or maybe even higher.  Fear is predictable.

This is a great time to be thinking like a financial doctor:  If this morning’s headlines are the symptoms, what would the patients be doing to self-medicate?  Cutting debt, buying gold, holding breath would be a fair stab at it, I would think.

And since no one in Washington can stand up to the K-Street Mafia, Bankster Division, there will be no real reform of punitive/oppressive lending practices, and, as a result, the cycle of boom and bust, not to mention class divisions at the human level, will only continue to get worse.

From the longwave economic perspective, we’re at the tail end of falling interest rates and as yesterday’s chart showed, this is when the odds of financial discontinuities is highest – when interest rates are nearly zero.  Think about negative interest rates for a second…and mull it over.

With that as a backdrop, it’s no wonder KGB judoka are warming up their irons to strike.  Sound-bite media are paving the way and superficial analysis isn’t the work of the devil, but it may help the sons of Lenin a good bit.  An under 35-state department and leftovers of the Bushistas and PNAC aren’t likely to help, much, either. 

So the close (shortly?) under S&P 1835 should take us down tdo our next trading target.  Give it a week or two, and let’s see how it plays.  Economics and war is just like golf, with just slightly different ballistics.  Tee time, as always, is 9:30 Eastern.

More after this…

(We’re always prepared to celebrate something around here…)

Sun, Grand Crosses, and Jittery Times

One of my biggest worries is that NASA has become a political football, of late.  Not only has the US decided to tank relations with Russia, but the “Oh, D’oh!” moment comes from the fact that we no longer have a way to get astronauts into space without relying on the Russians for lift.

So it’s in this kind of “caught in our own thinking” and budget drops, that we eagerly wait each month for the Solar Cycle Projections, knowing that if any more cuts come to NASA they could start dropping important data, like this monthly chart.

The reason this is key?

Large solar flares happen on the backside of the solar progression (11.something years) and so we’re now in the high risk period.

Line that up with an astrological Cardinal Grand Cross, (details part 1, and part 2) and while we’re at it, let’s also serve up this year’s four blood moons starting next week, and you have a greatly simplified explanation for why my inbox is filled up with emails like this one:

“Got a creepy feeling about this Friday —

Flash crash on Friday???
I got a creepy feeling.  A couple of 11’s, a 22 and a 13.  And of course the Grand Cardinal Cross next week with the influence of Uranus being found in the disappearance of MH370 (that also = a 22 and a 13), and multiple earthquakes making the nightly news.”

Like the old saying runs, as above, so below.  Just keep Robin Landry’s 1,740 S&P level circled as an interesting intermediate stopping point.

In the meantime, the alignment of Earth, Mars, and the Sun today does lead to an increased chance of earthquakes, worry others.

MH370 Search Claim

China’s Xinhua news agency is going wall-to-wall on the MH370 debris story claiming their patrol ship Haixun 01 was first to hear the pinger.  We’ll see…

Island Fever’

The Senkaku’s are back in the news…those being the small islands in the East China Sea where Japan has laid claim.  None of which would matter except that the world is running out of oil, and there’s oil under those reefs and so it is a really BIG deal.

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Coping: With How the World Unravels

It’s not often that a reader sends in a dream about Ures truly, so I thought this email was particularly interesting, what me having a vested interest in it…

Hello Mr Ure,

Had one of those dreams that seemed to really jump out at me a few nights ago that I wanted to share with you.

I dreamed that I was reading urbansurival and it stated that basically a messiah type figure was going to show up in the next 2-3 weeks. This wasn’t a real messiah but that 98% of the world would fall for it. The other 2% wouldn’t buy it and they’d be right not to. It was laid out very matter-of-factually and straight forward. After reading it all, it seemed that nobody including myself seemed upset, just another oddity to look out for and not get tripped up by. Could be something, or nothing. Anyway, have a great week! Keep up the good work.   ~Mario

I was really good with all of it, except for the dates.  In case you missed our “three wrecks” summary of Monday’s news, the play is likely over the next two or three years and should go something like this:

Now:  Russia is facing the potential for HUGE war with China over Siberia/Mongolia in 2018-2020 because of all the resources and open land up there.

The Russians want the former Soviet Union (FSU) manufacturing resource in their back pocket before then, so the former proxy states of (Czech, Pole, Bulgarian, etc…basically anywhere that made an AK-47 or parts is prized) are in Russians sights.

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Monday: Waiting for the Wreckage

We have three stories this morning which can be broadly lumped under the “waiting for the wreckage” concept.

The first, as always around here, is financial in nature.  This is because in the Grand Long Wave Theory of things, we’re getting down close to the bottom of the trough of long-term interest rates and we are nearly at Ure’s Paradox.

A chart in one of the recent Peoplenomics reports sums up the problem graphically:

What this means is that as interest rates fall, stock prices with stable earnings will go up.

But there is a boundary zone, because as interest rates approach zero then suddenly the value of stocks drops precipitously because confidence in the whole economy just got crushed by inflation.

And this, of course, explains neatly why a) the market is continuing to replay the spring-summer of 2011 so nicely and b) why the stock market fell on its butt on Friday.

This morning, has anything changed?  Well, no. 

The Market is waiting to open down about 50 on the Dow and somewhere in here we will begin edging down to the 1835-1840 S&P level. 

Unfortunately, our Trading Model will have announced a sell signal somewhere before that (at least likely so) and that will set up further panic down to the next lower level, which is around S&P 1740, by Robin Landry’s calculations.

But if/when THAT fails, then we finally get around to an S&P with a target of 1,565 (my work) or as low as 1,540 (Landry’s work) as possibilities along in August, but perhaps earlier.

The next Biggie, in terms of market data, will be the Consumer (yoke of) Debt (credit to banksters) which will be released by the Fed today.

With M1 interest rates jacked up to 18.3% annualized (printing money is the apparent replacement for QE’s going away) we will be holding our breath to see if people are putting on the yoke of debt at high enough levels to sustain the economy going forward.  The yoke is presumably very comfy if you’re a Fortunate 500 corporation, but the credit card money-changers don’t give a rip and so they’re still screwing people with 29.9% rates on delinquent payments.

And it is EXACTLY this spread (the 29.9% F.U. Consumer Rate – versus the 0.25% we love you bankster rate, that Her Yellinness doesn’t seem to be addressing.

Until that spread is narrowed (with a return to usury laws, perhaps?) it’s only a matter of time until the economy goes off to become the poster child for wreckage, also to be known as the Second Depression.

Our #2 Wreckage story after this shameless bit of self-promotion…

The Pinger-Dinger

The media hype machine is going full blast this morning.  And once again, it’s the hunt for MH370 and reports that a promising signal has been heard.

If this is starting to sound a little suspect, I can tell you as someone who has worked on battery powered projects involving battery instrumentation (and yes, on patents for it) there is not a lot of reason to put stock in these latest reports.

Batteries, you see, are chemical and the colder they get, the less energy they put out.  I don’t have the specs on the pinger’s battery in front of me, but a month, under cold water and “keeps on running?  Count me skeptical, for sure.

Another reason to be skeptical is this note from a source:

Following my previous emails to you regarding flight MH370 going north and not south I wish to update you and point out to you that there is still no public technical evidence to support that the flight really did go south as the media reports. I am an expert in RADAR, RF, IP networking and Doppler theory/capabilities. You, I am certain are well versed in radio and RF theory. You will thus understand that the so called Rolls Royce Engine satellite pings that were received by the two satellites could only measure transit time and RF Doppler shift. Thus:

1) East/West relative direction could be determined for the plane by measuring message transit time and Doppler shift.  I believe the MH370 flight path was certainly in the west side of the map ellipse depicted in map-1 below.

2) But the Doppler shift of the carrier frequency of the RF ping will not allow anyone to ascertain whether the plane went north or south, but only along with the signal transit time that the plane moved as far as the limits in the black arc on map-1.  North or south cannot be known from this data

As you can see (look at map 1 of the 2 maps below) if the flight went north it would have ended up in one of the “Stans” such as Kyrgyzstan or Pakistan or very close to it.  Terrorism in Kyrgyzstan has increased since the U.S. military invaded Afghanistan and overthrew the Taliban in 2001. Southern Kyrgyzstan is increasingly sympathetic to terrorism and radical Islam according to Wikipedia. Western governments would not want terrorist organizations to know that they know where the plane is now located.

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Coping: With Dreams, Dream Work, and the Dream Center

Once again, the mind of George was busy delivering either the future or a frappe of leftover thought stubs last night as I had one of those odd dreams with content that has – on occasion – old me about the future before it arrives.

I won’t go through the litany of past experience – I’ve done that enough in the past – but the dream last night centered on the concept “The Sudberry (Sudbury) Incident” which would be fine.  Except, of course, I know no Sudberrys and have no idea why it should pop up in a dream. 

The word Sudberry (possibly Sundberry or Sudbury) doesn’t mean jack to me and it’s not a word that has cropped up in the previous conscious thought in the past year.  Hell, I don’t consciously remember ever thinking about it.

The problem with this kind of dream (with no apparent cause) is that it may be part of the greater subject area known as dream work.  This is where dreams are seen (almost shamanistically) as tools to help the conscious and unconscious/preconscious parts of the Whole Self have discourse.  Helps to have guidance.

The follow-up work on Sudberry/Sudbury incident, for me, is to wonder if there is a military aspect to it, since my retired SF/Ranger bro-in-law made an appearance in the dream.  Has me wondering about hostages, and unpleasantries down that road because he was a Delta nominee who was cut (glasses) because uncorrected vision was a requirement.

I’ve also sent a note to Grady up at the www.nostracodeus.com project to add the words to our web-scanning efforts.

So where is Sudbury/Sudbury?

Massachusetts:  City of 18,000 roughly

Massachusetts 2: A school in Framingham.

Ontario:  Greater Sudbury

Britain: A place in Suffolk, also historical area of London

Australia, reef in Queensland

I’m sure there are others, but whatever the hell “the Sudberry Incident” is will likely either pop into headlines in no more than 10-days, or this was just a leftover piece of brain-cheese that somehow ended up in a fight/conflict with aspects of military.  I’ll ask Panama, when he gets up and about, whether Sudberry is meaningful to him, and report back tomorrow.

And this gets us to the whole reason for this discussion in the first place:  I have had enough personal experiences – about a dozen so far – in which aspects of the future have shown up that I started a project back in 2008 called the National Dream Center.

I also believe I mentioned a while back that I wanted to divest myself of the site so that the important work of the site could continue.  Which was (and is) a kind of central repository where dreams about the future could be posted and results tracked.

My problem – is that as much as I loved the research, especially the charts over time showing how people’s dream content was drifting about, I just didn’t have time to devote to the daily postings that growing the site would entail.

And the idea was,; I think you’ll agree, just too damn good to drop.

So today, the www.nationaldreamcenter.com site is under the control of Chris McCleary who is a professional working in what?  Dream work!  Perfect!

You can read his bio and introduction first post over here.  And whether you have an oddity to post, please post it to Chris’s Dream Center DreamBase because the idea is to capture as much content as possible and try to and develop tools for working in this really odd land.

Oh, and my Consigliere called from Aspen over the weekend (life’s tough, huh?) whining about his broken foot was still not back into skiing condition, but then he warmed up to his subject.

“I don’t know if you noticed, but there is a post over on the Godlike Productions site about an earthquake warning for Wyoming for this week…which is kind of odd. You might want to take a look at it…

I did – the posts are over here.

Say, you don’t think the Sundby Reservoir southeast of Medicine Bow Peak got garbled up in my dream, do you?  We’ll just start the clock and wait, I suppose.

The only news item close is the death yesterday of a worker at a smelter in Sudbury, Canada… I don’t think that was it, but who knows?  A prequel?

Letters We Like to Get

This weekend’s Peoplenomics report deals with how to write a good “Dead Letter.”  In today’s digital age, a simple note to an executor of a will is NOT enough.  What about all those passwords and intellectual assets that will be under digital lock and key?  And would your survivors know where your online assets are even stashed?

George,
Very mature, well presented Peoplenomics report today.
Takes the organized life and closes the door softly.
Since I attend the local monthly meeting with speakers who
have had near death experiences, and I know a couple of
counselors who have had their own experiences and they
worked with hundreds of people with NDE experiences,
writing an instructional letter to finish up the unfinished
business of life…as you have done…seems practical.
…and when you get to the other side, evaluating your own
checklist of what did I get right and what still needs to be
done or corrected next life will be a wonderful
experience for you. And the fact that you shared
it with all of us earns you a…
“WELL DONE GEORGE!!!”
My regards,
Roger

Another subscriber – an attorney who specialized in wills and estate planning, seconded the concept and cited from personal experience:

My beloved client fighter jockey had a 3 ring notebook he called his “Croak Book”. It contained copies of insurance, wills, powers of attorney, brokerage accounts, bank accounts, treasure maps, and so forth. Key original documents were in a safe for obvious reasons.

When he died, we opened the Croak Book and everything was easy peasy. Except the World was never quite as much fun, in some ways, after he croaked. I truly look forward to seeing him again sometime, somewhere. And I always tell my clients about the croak book concept.

BUT.

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Estate Planning: The "Dead Letter"

Most times, our topics in Peoplenomics follow a logical sequence: How to keep the “wolf away from the door” is the starting point. Then we get into “wolf trapping” and finally, throwing in with the bears now and then (as in yesterday’s market action) to skim a buck or three in trading. But there are unpleasant tasks in finance, too. Like doing up a Will.

Rally On Jobs Report

Oh, I can feel the stampede of bulls in just a half-hour when the market opens.  Nothing helps climb a wall of worry like a solid jobs report just out…

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 192,000 in March, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment grew in professional and business services, in health care, and in mining and logging.

Household Survey

Data In March, the number of unemployed persons was essentially unchanged at 10.5 million, and the unemployment rate held at 6.7 percent. Both measures have shown little movement since December 2013. Over the year, the number of unemployed persons and the unemployment rate were down by 1.2 million and 0.8 percentage point, respectively. (See table A-1.)

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for adult women increased to 6.2 percent in March, and the rate for adult men decreased to 6.2 percent. The rates for teenagers (20.9 percent), whites (5.8 percent), blacks (12.4 percent), and Hispanics (7.9 percent) showed little or no change. The jobless rate for Asians was 5.4 percent (not seasonally adjusted), little changed from a year earlier.

The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more), at 3.7 million, changed little in March; these individuals accounted for 35.8 percent of the unemployed. The number of long-term unemployed was down by 837,000 over the year.

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Coping: Friday at the WoWW

As I await a boatload of research materials, that may give some additional insight into “Joe Brandt’s Dream” to show up, it’s nice to know that The World of Woo-Woo is still presenting life in very non-ordinary ways.  Such as this report from Susan…

I’ve had a couple of woo events happen this week, completely out of the norm for me, the first one didn’t strike me as anything odd until I experienced the second one that completely freaked me out. 

I take my five month old lab for a walk around the property every evening at sunset, she always carries her tennis ball with her on these walks.  I always keep an eye on where the ball is because we are walking in a hay field and it needs to be kept clear.  So we are out for our walk and she runs from behind me and as I look down at her she still has the ball in her mouth.  It’s a purple and red tennis ball and she’s a black lab, so it’s very easy to see.  She runs in front of me about 20 feet and stops, starts sniffing the ground, and looking around.  When I get up to her I can see she doesn’t have her ball, so I start looking around, It is no where to be found.  We still haven’t found that ball after four days, the area is completely flat, there is nothing but low cut dead grass, mud, and a few sprouts of green coming up, no shrubs no trees.

The second one is unnerving for me personally. I was building a new raised bed for the garden.  I’m making it out of some left over galvanized panels and some 4×4 from previous projects. I’m doing this by myself, wrestling 10 foot pieces of tin to make them stand is not the easiest thing in the world, so I basically tacked it together and then go back and square it up.  I was on the last post and the bottom of it needed to come over a little for the post to be standing straight.  I am using 3″ brass wood screws with a star head and some nuts with a metal lip around it to act as a washer since I didn’t have any left.  They fit perfectly and there is no way for the screw head to go through the hole of the nut. So I start backing out the screw and it was like my field of vision did a quick little quarter turn, the nut came flying at my feet and the screw was gone.  I only had the screw backed out about a half-inch-if that.  I just stood there, still bent over, drill still in place from where the screw USED to be, looking at the nut between my feet.  So once I snapped out of it, I tore that area apart, I couldn’t find the screw or any piece of it.  So I went ahead and put another screw in the same hole and had no problem getting it in (thinking the screw had broke off in there).  I don’t know how to explain it but it was just gone.

Love Ure page, Susan

Love Ure report, too.

The problem with it is that it’s typical of the kind of reports we get all the time.  Someone will place an object somewhere – and when they go back – POOF!  Object gone.  Then – anywhere from a few days to months, the object will appear back where it is supposed to be.

I have lots of theories about things that could make such phenomena occur.  But on the screwing part of your report, I would be very interested, both cases, actually, about the weather at the time.

A lot of these anomalous phenomena seem to be associated with darkness or very low clouds.

I’m sure you’ve come to the possible conclusion that humans are sort of “on an ant farm” for a higher intelligence?  It’s a logically consistent line of thinking because it fits a whole passel of facts into one neat little box.

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Good News Ahead of Unemployment Data

Tomorrow will be an interesting one – it’s when the new unemployment report (for March) will be released.  It’s almost predictable that the report will show either a stable, or slightly improving jobs picture.  But what may not be clear is how many jobs are real (not taxpayer supported) and what portion are thanks to increased government spending.

But we do have a couple of clues to help guide us, in this regard, which are out this morning.  The Balance of Trade report and the Challenger Job cuts.  Cuts first:

New figures released Thursday by global outplacement consultancy Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. show employers announced the fewest first-quarter job cuts in 19 years, providing further evidence that the economy continues to gain strength as it enters the sixth year of recovery.

The first quarter closed with 34,399 March job cuts, the second lowest monthly total since January 2013. The only month to see fewer cuts during that period was December, when just 30,623 job cuts were announced. The March total was 18 percent lower than the 41,835 planned job cuts reported in February and 30 percent lower than a year ago when March job cuts totaled 49,255.

The other big number this morning is the Balance of Trade report.   It wasn’t good.  Somewhere in here, we were expecting the US deficit in trade with other nations to begin to improve because of demand or US resource products and food.,  No such luck.  Trade gap is widening.

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of
Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce,
announced today that total February exports of $190.4 billion
and imports of $232.7 billion resulted in a goods and services
deficit of $42.3 billion, up from $39.3 billion in January,
revised. February exports were $2.0 billion less than January
exports of $192.5 billion. February imports were $1.0 billion
more than January imports of $231.7 billion.

The January to February decrease in exports of goods reflected decreases in industrial supplies and materials ($2.7
billion) and capital goods ($0.9 billion). Increases occurred in consumer goods ($1.2 billion); other goods ($0.6 billion); and automotive vehicles, parts, and engines ($0.1 billion).

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Coping: With Aftershocks & Joe Brandt’s Dream

To pretty much no one’s surprise, there was a major aftershock in Chile overnight, a 7.6.  And yes, this is large enough to cause more damage and perhaps kill people.  While the reality of the April Fools quake sets in, and the prospect that things are about to “get moving again” along the eastern perimeter of the Pacific’s Ring of Fire, it’s the other stuff…the memories, the slight hints at Woo-Woo, and what the animals are telling us that may help guide our thinking about the future.

This morning’s quake aftershock  details are pretty straightforward 7.6 is the headline number:

What escapes most people is the potential for a series of mega quakes to (as my friend warhammer puts it) “unzip world..”  It’s what happens when you apply modern military (if—>then) planning to earthquake ramifications…

George,

I’m sure you’ve seen this . . . very peculiar goings on in Yellowstone.  The animal behavior alarms me far more than the associated quake activity.

Add the Chile quake and today’s aftershock along with LA basin activity and Mamma Earth is definitely movin’ and a shakin.’

As I tend to look at worst case scenarios when planning courses of action (COAs – pronounced ‘Koh-ahs’) – and thinking about the U.S. either suffering a large magnitude quake or a Yellowstone eruption, the financial and social chaos would surely be momentous, especially with a Yellowstone eruption. 

A natural disaster wrought by a large quake or massive volcano would be the perfect time for a geopolitical nemesis to detonate a high altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) over the East Coast of N. America.  The double whammy would almost certainly be crippling and could well prove fatal to the viability of America as a nation. 

Do I think this will happen?  Shoot – that’s for the folks at Farsight Institute and your own Nostracodeus site to divine, not little old me.  But ‘IF’ (note the BIG if) some extra-natural event does happen, we should be on the look for adversaries eager to exploit the situation in any and every way possible for their own benefit.  Let’s look at the list:

– Russia:  unfettered influence in Eurasia, the Med, Cuba and S. America

– China: fronts the global economy, instantly becoming the global economic and military superpower

– Iran:  its radical brand of Islam is unleashed in the Middle East and particularly against Israel and Saudi Arabia as it prepares for the prophesied imminent arrival of the Hidden Imam, or Mahdi

– Syria: no holds barred vengeance against rebel forces and the prophesied epicenter for the coming internal Islamic war before the Mahdi’s arrival.

– India/Pakistan:  the most likely area for a hair-trigger nuke exchange in the world, including between Iran and Israel

– Africa: the Dark Continent would experience previously unseen religious/tribal/ethnic violence and bloodshed

Yep, pretty damn depressing what could happen if the U.S. is fatally or significantly crippled.  The world could essentially unzip.  So let’s hope (and pray) the Yellowstone animal exodus is over exaggerated and nothing of note will come from the reports.

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The Future in Three Charts & Quake Prediction Hit

Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose. And this morning we have both. Sadly, our prediction earlier this week (starting with our ‘heads up’ early Sunday morning about elevated earthquake risk came to pass with our “April Fools Quake” right (and unfortunately) on schedule. The good news is that our Trading Model continues to sing “It’s Alright” as the market keeps nudging in new highs. So a few cups to slurp and a few brain cells to jar and we’re off into a midweek adventure through the data of life…

Yellin the Market Higher

One of the nicest E.O.Q.W.D’s  (end of quarter window dressings)  I’ve seen – the Dow popped up 134 points on Monday and the techs were up over 1% as the Fed boss came out and started to hint around at what I told you would be an inevitable necessity:  The Fed is going to print for as long as it takes to get the economy back to the old “way it used to be.”

The Fed, where it seems the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model is pushing policy to some extent, seems to be beset by the lack of a good algorithm to project how people will revise their long-term lifestyles in the face of repeated screwings.

What’s amazing to me is that the Fed boss sees what Americans are feeling yet her faith in “the models” is still pretty darn high.  That’s why she can say on the one hand:

“…In some ways, the job market is tougher now than in any recession. The numbers of people who have been trying to find work for more than six months or more than a year are much higher today than they ever were since records began decades ago. We know that the long-term unemployed face big challenges. Research shows employers are less willing to hire the long-term unemployed and often prefer other job candidates with less or even no relevant experience.”

But then turn around, on the other, and promise to repeat the same policy approaches that got us there in the first place…In other words, they’re going to keep being accommodative.

Yellen spoke the answer, but maybe didn’t hear herself:

“…If unemployment were mostly structural, if workers were unable to perform the jobs available, then the Federal Reserve’s efforts to create jobs would not be very effective. Worse than that, without slack in the labor market, the economic stimulus from the Fed could put attaining our inflation goal at risk. In fact, judging how much slack there is in the labor market is one of the most important questions that my Federal Reserve colleagues and I consider when making monetary policy decisions, because our inflation goal is no less important than the goal of maximum employment.

The problem faced by the Fed is simple.  As the number of people losing jobs to offshoring and robotics continues to increase, and as self-driving cars and other employment “category killers” are coming down the pike, printing all the money in the world will not keep up with the voracious growing need for increased tax revenues to minimally feed and house a massively increasing underclass.

If there’s a failing to DSGE model reliance, it is likely that it fails to address society-wide tipping points that are now coming into view, as outlined in Saturday’s Peoplenomics report.

What’s coming to gobble the Western Empires within three or four years is a variant of “future shock” – a term coined by futurist Alvin Toffler.

In Peoplenomics, we labeled this FutureCrock because in addition to disruptive technologies, not the least of which will be modular manufacturing (there go more jobs!) we will have the added bonus of mass cognitive dissonance igniting SocialRevs right and left.

The Fed boss was (perhaps rightly) proud when she pointed to local Fed steps to help communities get back on their feet:

“…Leadership recruitment is also at the heart of a grassroots-oriented program called Economic Avenue that was developed by the Kansas City Fed. In Northeast Kansas City, Kansas, residents and neighborhood leaders are forming a leadership council that will have responsibility for managing the program, which aims to create and grow local businesses, create jobs, and promote homeownership. The bank’s community development staff is providing education and training to get the council off the ground, will measure and evaluate

But in a counter to that, a sane observer of mass change would have to note that humans are self-organizing and that there is another “Economic Avenue” being built spontaneously.  And that all lives under the headings of “barter and bitcoins.”

Unlike the global world order that’s struggling to market a global tax system to support global government, or the US government which is printing paper six-ways to Sunday to attempt a restart, the new internal breakaway civilization (NuCiv) is laying out its own alternative financial foundation.

I don’t think Ms. Yellen has ever worked construction (just a guess, mind you, but I think a safe one).  But a concrete worker would recognize what’s going on in a heartbeat.

“What’cha got is a crumbling foundation.  So I can either mix up a sack of topping mix and trowel it on to make it look good, so it will pass inspection for a little while.  Or, I can rebuild the foundation right, one section at a time…”

The wise observer will see both tracks in play:  The Fed is opting for the topping mix.  But off on the sidelines, barter is booming and so is BitCoin.  Regular people will find workable solutions, even if it means trading in silverware and home gardening.

Crumbling Foundations Detail

As our work on pricing has projected, BitCoin has continued to fall.  As of this morning, it’s down to $482 and likely to continue falling toward our projected possible low of $325.

The reason is – in part – the IRS guidance of last week that BitCoins would be treated as property.

However, lest you think Capitalism of the Old School sort is out of the woods, guess again.

One group of the April Fools today are likely to be the high frequency Wall St.

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Coping: Is There an Honest Environmental Movement?

This is no April Fools deal, here.  This is the real schiznit.  The Big UGLY sucker in the corner no one wants to talk about.,  And my buddy David (goat ranchering up in Arkysaw) nails it squarely:

Funny you should mention it…

And we have to give up on planned obsolescence.

If the alleged environmentalist of our generation were the least bit honest planned obsolescence would be the first place to start an environmental movement.

It always fascinated me when the were millions available to the “movement” but you could not find an honest (useful idiot) that had contributed more then $5.

Yes, Brother Dave gets the only gold star I am going to pass out all day long.  He and I both see that the reason we can’t have a happy ending to the present worldview is that no one is addressing the number one problem:  You can’t have constant growth in a fixed system forever.

Something is going to break.  It’s all just a matter of time.  Simple as that.  D’oh.

Think about this:  If everything lasted three times as long, we’d all only have to work one third of the time!

Followed logically, our present trajectory nets us a planet in 100 years where everyone has a 100” TV, a car that gets 900 miles per gallon.  Oh, and everyone is dead because with the LBGT movement succeeding, there are no kids being anymore and……

Hello?  Can we please – just this once – answer the right question instead of going of on the BS bait and switch? This year’s car, this year’s style, this year’s phone, this year’s Office/operating system and whatever…

Please, tell me you’re not so dumb to miss it?   The environmental movement is –  Yet Another Distraction (YAD) – because no one starting at the get go and that because no one wants to admit planned obsolescence is what kills us all. 

So bring on over-production (and let’s over-medicate, too, while we’re at it) because that way, we can all “green police” ourselves into oblivion.

Save a tree, kill a planet.  Save a whale, create a government job.  Ban cow farts, more regulators.  Blame climate change…and here’s another tax, and more government jobs..

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