Another “Hot Market Star” is Born

Interesting headline in the Case-Shiller (et al) Housing report just out:  The headline:


Followed by details which are really a bout housing slowing down:

“S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for July 2019 shows that the rate of home price increases across the U.S. continues to slow.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 3.2% annual gain in July, remaining the same from the previous month. The 10City Composite annual increase came in at 1.6%, down from 1.9% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 2.0% year-over-year gain, down from 2.2% in the previous month.
Phoenix, Las Vegas and Charlotte reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities. In July, Phoenix led the way with a 5.8% year-over-year price increase, followed by Las Vegas with a 4.7% increase, and Charlotte with a 4.6% increase. Seven of the 20 cities reported greater price increases in the year ending July 2019 versus the year ending June 2019.

After some single market views, the presser continues:

“Before seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 0.4% in July. The 10-City Composite remained flat and the 20-City Composite reported a 0.1% increase for the month. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index recorded a 0.1% month-over-month increase in July. The 10-City Composite posted a 0.1% decrease and the 20-City Composite did not report any gains. In July, 15 of 20 cities reported increases both before and after seasonal adjustment.
“Year-over-year home prices continued to gain, but at ever more modest rates,” says Philip Murphy, Managing Director and Global Head of Index Governance at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “Charlotte surpassed Tampa to join the top three cities, and Seattle may be turning around from its recent negative streak of YOY price changes, improving from -1.3% in June to -0.06% in July. “

If one is inclined to see Elliott Waves in everything, we could look at the percentage price change chart and squint at it this way:

On the other hand, if you don’t look at percent change (a kind of derivative view) and stick to the prices only, they look less unsettling:

Of course, there are two classes of people who will have entirely different views of this price view.

The real estate people we know would say “buy a house, don’t put too much down, and use leverage because the government is still making up money like crazy…”  And they’d be right.

BUT, the other view of the financially sane people would be more like “The price chart is a bit misleading because it’s based on something close to compounding interest and inferring Elliott from a compound interest table?  Might not work out so well, bub.”

Not saying who’s right or wrong, and we have too many other books to write…so let’s let it go and call it “Not the end of the world” though stocks lost about half their early gains and futures on the Dow are +56 going into the open…

Moron the ‘morrow for Peoplenomics subscribers…Click here for this morning’s real column but bring a change of clothes – a bit long.

20 thoughts on “Another “Hot Market Star” is Born”

  1. “The real estate people we know would say “buy a house, don’t put too much down, and use leverage because the government is still making up money like crazy…”

    Or Wait till it all tanks and then buy it at bottom feeder prices..

    loved the presidents speech he is sticking to his guns.. I like that..

    “a typical Manhattan house increased 62% in a run up of the 1929 stock market crash and then lost 51% of that value by the end of 1933”
    a study done by Associate Professor Tom Nicholas of the Harvard Business School

    • A story I was told: Mexico, Real Estate prices increased, so the family sold, thinking they got the top of the market, and would use their funds to buy more RE. Yep, they got their money and the Peso was then devalued. Now their million was worth 1/5 and they couldn’t buy back into the neighborhood they had left. (Much more on the website.)

      “I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around [the banks] will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered. The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs.”
      –Thomas Jefferson

      “The system of banking we have both equally and ever reprobated. I contemplate it as a blot left in all our constitutions, which, if not covered, will end in their destruction, which is already hit by the gamblers in corruption, and is sweeping away in its progress the fortunes and morals of our citizens. Funding I consider as limited, rightfully, to a redemption of the debt within the lives of a majority of the generation contracting it; every generation coming equally, by the laws of the Creator of the world, to the free possession of the earth he made for their subsistence, unencumbered by their predecessors, who, like them, were but tenants for life.”
      –Thomas Jefferson

      “Banks have done more injury to the religion, morality, tranquility, prosperity, and even wealth of the nation than they can have done or ever will do good.”
      –John Adams

      “History records that the money changers have used every form of abuse, intrigue, deceit, and violent means possible to maintain their control over governments by controlling the money and its issuance.”
      –James Madison

      “The bold effort the present [Second National] bank had made to control government, the distress it has wantonly produced… are but premonitions of the fate that awaits the American people should they be deluded into a perpetuation of this institution or the establishment of another like it.”
      –Andrew Jackson

      “I killed the bank.”
      –Andrew Jackson when asked about his greatest accomplishment

      “People who will not turn a shovelful of dirt nor contribute a pound of material will collect more money from the United States than will the people who supply the material and do the work…. It is a terrible situation when the Government, to insure the National Wealth, must go in debt and submit to ruinous interest charges at the hands of men who control the fictitious value of gold. Interest is the invention of Satan.”
      –Thomas Edison

      “I am more than ever convinced of the dangers to which the free and unbiased exercise of political opinion — the only sure foundation and safeguard of republican government — would be exposed by any further increase of the already overgrown influence of corporate authorities.”
      –Martin Van Buren

      “I see in the near future a crisis approaching that unnerves me and causes me to tremble for the safety of my country; corporations have been enthroned, an era of corruption in High Places will follow, and the Money Power of the Country will endeavor to prolong its reign by working upon the prejudices of the People, until the wealth is aggregated in a few hands, and the Republic is destroyed. I feel at this moment more anxiety for the safety of my country than ever before, even in the midst of war.”
      –Abraham Lincoln, after the passing of the National Bank Act

      “Whoever controls the volume of money in any country is absolute master of all industry and commerce… and when you realize that the entire system is so easily controlled, one way or another, by a few powerful men at the top, you will not have to told how periods of inflation and depression originate.” –James Garfield

      “If, as I said, any persons are to make good deficiencies to the public creditor, besides the public at large, they must be those who managed the agreement. Why therefore are not the estates of all the comptrollers-general confiscated? Why not those of the long succession of ministers, financiers, and bankers who have been enriched whilst the nation was impoverished by their dealings and their counsels?” –Edmund Burke

  2. George,
    -Regarding yours yesterday again ridiculing the Climate Change movement (i.e., stopped vehicles pollute):
    Building upon NASA’s 97% of published scientists, we now find that the next generation is the ONLY generation left to fix our climate.
    -So I analogize again:
    If 97% of the greatest engineering minds of your generation said your local bridge was likely about to collapse, would you continue to drive the grandkids over it?
    The answer apparently remains yes.
    -There’s no fool like an old fool.
    Best, Mike.

    • 100% of scientists agree that 100% of the energy input to planet earth comes from the SUN.
      The sun, demonstrably, is NOT STABLE, but is a variable star with cycles that, strangely, coincide with climate change cycles on planet earth. So exactly HOW do you propose that the next generation “Fix” the Sun so these cycles do not occur??
      Hint: Eliminating 100% of the human population would NOT stop climate from changing on this planet. “Climate Change” is not human-caused. It is a stellar problem.

      No, I am not a “Climate Denier”. I am a “Human Causation Denier”.

      • Gosh, brother huna, don’t embarrass him with such obvious logic. Let’s first ask how he plans to tax the sun. Regulation, yes sir! That might be more fun. Let ’em twist and spin in the wind. I promise, you can finish him off when we’re done with him…

      • SOLVED!!!!!

        We can just build a 9000 mile in diameter (ya gots ta account for a little wobble) Polaroid filter and shove it into geostationary deep Earth orbit.

        Actually, the best solution is to completely ignore these posts, since the poster is obviously not motivated enough on the subject to learn elementary arithmetic…

    • In all seriousness, M___, I know you talk the talk, but do you walk the walk? How many trees are you growing on your property? How many solar panels have you installed? What other green project activities have you yourself ever actually committed time and money to? That other M____ has an electric car; it may not really do anything for the environment, but he meant well, and it sure as hell cost a bunch of money for his bragging rights. What substantive steps have you yourself taken?

    • Mike,
      I find my replies to you are like spitting in the wind and I learned not to do that along time ago.

      Please keep on writing. You provide me (and perhaps others) with alot of amusement.
      Best, an old librarian.

      • I’ve yet to see anyone lose a debate with M_____. He does provide a forum for rhetorical replies. But you already knew that.

    • “SOLVED!!!!!

      We can just build a 9000 mile in diameter (ya gots ta account for a little wobble) Polaroid filter and shove it into geostationary deep Earth orbit.”

      Ray. The one I got chuckel out of was a serious idea or plan to fling mirrors in outer space…
      That was from an edjumencated man

  3. In Raleigh, NC home prices are booming. I bought my daughter’s house 6 years ago when we moved to Raleigh so she could move to a larger house. The Raleigh real estate market was in the the toilet in 2013. I paid $127,000 in 2013 which was fair market value considering the times. This month 2 similar homes in the area each sold for $200,000 & change each.

  4. G-Dog – Real Estate! We Talking Realestate! cmon man – its confiscatable dont ya know – So is that single Gold coin..Bitcoin on the other hand is extremely SCARCE – becoming scarcer every day and guess what dear editor – Bitcoin is UNCONFISCATABLE!
    Not mention Unstoppable Decentralization !
    Oh baby can it get any better?
    U betcha – Bitcoin is going on sale as I type. TBN expects to go “Catch Some Falling Knives” down around $7000 price level – not advice, just a peak into the mind of a genius! Thanks.

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