A Presidential Election Lesson

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I’ve been hard at the charts this week and what I have to share this morning is enough to cause any sane person to consider dropping out of the presidential contest.  2017 mas “major ugly” potential.

You see:  Whoever “wins” may be looking down the barrel of a 25-30% market decline (or worse) in 2017.  It may drift above, or below that, based on how well Europe holds together (if it does at all) and how much redirection China makes to sub out consumer goods for military prepping for an eventual showdown over the South China Sea..  Not until 2022-2025, though.

Yes, we may get a “nominal” winner in November, but maybe this “win” won’t be such a bright and sparklyfirst year as we recall how 2001 and 2009 turned out…and see where we are right now.

Coffee first, however.  No point going on with a sleepy brain when taking on great matters of State and Wallet.

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11 thoughts on “A Presidential Election Lesson”

  1. Well, from this non-subscriber’s viewpoint, it’s the same as 2001 and 2009 – “You bet(s) your money and you take your chances!”

    What’s interesting is why any sane person – after that experience would want to be president in 2005 and 2013?

    If your prediction comes to pass for 2017, it will be a good thing that President Clinton is in office having known and worked with the current ‘power-structure’ in Washington DC. (Making massive changes like Trump would be prone to do would be a very bad idea!)

    As to the predicted war with China in the 2020’s – I think that there are conflicting ‘signals’ on that – yes, from a military standpoint it does look ominous, but from a financial regard – China and the US are so intertwined as business partners that ‘war’, whether cyber or physical based – would be at that time – unlikely . . .

    I’m more worried about Russia – Putin still controls a vast country, and clearly wants to regain as much or more of the old Warsaw Pact. And then there is the ‘India-Pakistan’ mess . . . not to mention ISIS.

    Anyone who ‘wants’ to be president is clearly ‘mad’!

    • I agree with you about China. You don’t shoot the folks who grow your peas, mend your socks or owe you tons of dough.

  2. George – two questions –
    1. In a replay of the 1929 event, you argued that context is also replayable, in that the echoes would materialise the same way, arguing for a ‘charismatic’ leader being elected, similar to Hoover-Roosevelt. But you have been indicating you believe in a Hillary win. Maybe I misunderstand but wouldnt the ‘charismatic’ leader be Trump?

    2. The charts and channels are familiar to me from Statistical Process Control, it appears you create Upper and Lower specifications based on a tolerance from a sigma factor. Would the other rules from trend lines (SPC) also apply? Such as “x number of readings above the mean”, “outliers”, etc. ?

    • 1. Based on socialist leanings, Hil would fit the ’32 election of Roosevelt. Like Roosevelt who held office from 1933 to 1945 (this was before the two term limit) she may have similar health problems in office – we simply don’t know.
      2. I use simple price channels, but yes, others work fine, such as 2 STDDEV or 3 STDDEV to hold outlier4s and you can then use ARIMA12 and other trend tools to look at things. But just draw the lines and look works (so far) just peachy!
      This does bring up the outlier issue and when you look at the BREXIT vote you see it was a genuine outlier in an otherwise solid trend – and notably the trend resumed as soon as the outlier was past.
      Empirically that says outliers don’t matter.

  4. RE: Pres Elections and such….Always wondered why anyone would spend millions to obtain a job that pays $174K a year? Then I realized that a person can go to Congress, serve one term, and emerge a millionaire. Is this a great country or what?

    Take Hillary for instance…. (do I have to)? lol

    Pay for play. K-mart Bluelight specials.

    You need a fleet of new Toyota trucks? No problem. How about some .50 cals and a few million rounds of ammo to go with that order? You got it… just dial “Clintonfoundationforfunandprofit” and your shipment is on the way.

    And so it goes while America focuses on Olympic paddle boarding.

    • Yep, dial up for surface to air missiles and all the guns you can handle – bazookas and machine guns…’anything for you,’ is her song….

  6. The Bonus Army marched onto Washington, DC during the summer of 1932. General MacArthur ordered an attack to rout the Bonus Army, along with Patton and Eisenhower, the job got done.

    Hoover was taken aback, was disgraced, in November of 1932, FDR became the new POTUS.

    Purdy much the story of why FDR was elected President.

    https://www.loc.gov/exhibits/treasures/trm203.html

    Six futile weeks of lobbying Congress raised government fears of riots, and on July 28, cavalry, infantry, tank troops and a mounted machine gun squadron commanded by General Douglas MacArthur and Major Dwight Eisenhower dispersed veterans and their families with bayonets and tear gas. Public opinion denounced President Herbert Hoover for the resulting bloodshed and helped force him from office.

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