Will the Market Forecast the Fed? Many ATR Notes

Feel like you need a dose of Breaking News?

The latest new unemployment claims chart will have to hold you.

That and a reminder the early futures were pointing to a solidly higher open.

RSS as Modern Tea Leaves

Wondering what the Fed decision will be – and more importantly how it will be received by markets – next Wednesday?

Here’s a short discussion of “reading the tape” and “reading the news” to get Thursday rolling.

Let’s say Ure wants to make another 2-3% in his account in the next week.  All I need to do is pick the right future, then buy a triple-levered index funds a couple of times.  Come on, if this was really hard, do you think I would do it?

In Swing Trading, moves have been running in the 5-7 hour trading range.  Wednesday may have touched an S&P swing trading low around 5-hours into the 6.5-hour session.

Today, we should go up through at least the European close.  Then maybe start a down-trend to close the week.

All we need to do is use the information in our trading Grimoire’s about wave lengths, then take from next Wednesday 2PM and work backwards.

If it looks like a strong Tuesday and no real big down pressures on Wednesday morning, then a strong decline could follow the rate hike.

OR, if Tuesday’s close (or into next Wednesday’s open) turns out to be hard down, then a rally on the Fed decision is possible.

Unfortunately, there is temporal asymmetry between Bullish and Bearish trading swings, so you have to know when a context shift (from one day to half-day swings) is in the works.

Tea Leaf Class: So today may be up, then down.  Leaving tomorrow to maybe rally, then down for the weekend.  Leaves a rally Monday, hesitation then disappointment on the Fed hike.  Or, the exact opposite.  We’re still to far out to commit funds.  We left the short side Wednesday after a tiny 1.3 percent gain.

It’s a useful mental tool when visualizing POSSIBLE Futures with the idea of making a buck on them.

OR

I can just look at where we are and where I think we’re going in this wave down.  A lot more downside could be coming…

See it?  Even with the head and shoulders forming on the right, we could still collapse in a heap.  Because when we look at this other chart (the kind of things Peoplenomics subscribers get) it looks like this in terms of recent events since last fall – and to us this is much easier to follow:

So yeah, we’re in a 3 down, and despite rally days, the trend is our friend.

The vertical arrow right says look at the difference on a daily basis between our moving “line in the long-term “line in the sand” model and the present Aggregate Index.

Go Slowly Rich

Our latest 8-hour trade was only a 1.372 percent gain – which seems stupidly ir not idiotically small. And it is…if you do it just once.

Until you semi-dependably snipe three of those a week and it pencils out to 545 percent annual return (that is, 5.45 times your money). Magic of Compounding for the serfs.  But then you have short-term gains.  Still, like Pappy used to say “High class problem to have, paying all that tax…

Taxes in the Ure family are treated the same as speed limits.  You can drive within the speed limit and never have to look for cop cars.  And you can just pay the tax and never worry about audits.  Or, you can try the Trump route.

We’ll take the bunny, double-wide in the woods, redneck beverages, wildlife, garden patch, our shooting range, and the workshop, thank you. We like strategic hiding as a concept.  No committees, no grand juries, no audits…leaves time to appreciate the view of life rolling by…

On the other hand, it would be nice to have a president, again.

Mob Government

Everyone’s dirty in D.C. we reckon.  Masks for a sexually-spread pox?  YHGTBSM.

Yet, its where America is:  Ruled by dueling mobs.  As we’ll have stuff into our subconscious with stories like Capitol attack’s full story: Jan. 6 panel probes US risks | AP News.

As a taxpayer, I am incensed that a producer for the hearings as somehow thought necessary.  Secretly, we know without one, this whole shit-show would have the wheels come off on live TV and the System can’t afford that.

We are as a country long past Invention, Production, and Enjoyment.  We’re going over the fall into Long Misery until we bottom-out again and have a world war.

Prototyping War

Tooling up for Global War by 2026 does take a little work.  We appreciate that.  We want the finest of biochemical, nuclear, and software collapse as can be managed.  We need to destroy all the world’s “savings” and not let on that “money” as presently constituted is an unnecessary joke.  Ruling Joke, but joke nevertheless.

A salad made of dollar bills is still not nourishing, no matter how much “dressing” the demagogues heap on it.

So, please, hurry up with my consigliere’s Warm-Up Wars!  Check ’em out:

Wild West:  Possible Chinese Invasion of Taiwan Snagged by Ukraine War: Ex-NATO Chief.  Maybe?  You mean China wouldn’t obviously chill while we move everything we have to the NATO/EU expansion zone?

Where:  Client note from my consigliere:  “See Mohamed El-Erian on the market: ‘We have lost our most important anchor’”  The anchor of “free money” is gone.”

With the Fed running a Ponzi Scheme.  And the reason we can say this is the government (Treasury) sells bonds.  Then the Fed buys whatever is needed to hold up markets.  Peter doesn’t “pay Paul.”  Peter is writing checks to himself and getting richer by the minute.

Not.

Which is why we are buying the means of production and tooling for Civilization Restart instead of the ‘filthy lucre’ part.

We try to be out of Casinos before they catch fire.  And we’re smelling smoke every day now.

Last Chance Tourism?

Seems to be on the uptick prior to the war with Turkey later this year.  Visitors trickle back to Syria citadel used by jihadists.  Perhaps some morbid sightseeing, as well?  Mass graves are still being dug in Syria today, anonymous whistleblower tells US senators.  To fill in the Fall?

We wonder who’s paying for this and where is forensic accounting when needed?  Our favorite forensic dean of Accounting was planning to “hit the silk” (skydivese for bailing out) from academia.  Don’t know if schools after his departure will even bother with the pretense of teaching people critical thinking skills.

Any questions left as to why public trust in government is so low as this? Public Trust in Government: 1958-2022 | Pew Research Center.

Digital Madness

Just as the stairs of our Digital Babel are on the verge of collapse, in comes more supporting data.

Before the Bank of the Metaverse shows up, Apple Will Handle Lending Itself With New Pay Later Service.

On social, Facebook, now Meta, Hit With 8 Suits Claiming Its Algorithms Hook Youth andRuin TheirLives.

While at Twitter, Reports: Twitter to provide Musk with raw daily tweet data,  is causing us huge PAIN as a restraint of trade issue:  So, he alone – not shareholders – will be able to “front run history” in advance?  Got to be an anti-trust angle to this.

Or it’s why Musk is rich and (comparatively) we’re not so much.

Letters of Credit Roulette

Biden got lucky on the Balance of Trade – mainly China – last month.  But we expect trade to go bright red again shortly as China’s exports surge on easing COVID curbs, trade outlook still fragile.

Everyone has their blather on Covid impacts on China.  We think Covid lockdowns there will continue to evolve as a mini-industry (check pharma stocks in the West, right?).  But while China turns Covid into a Marxist monetization (rather than a stock swindle with government backup and liability protections) the return of the supply chain collapse will soon be at hand.

Meanwhile, our daily food jitters are spiked by Hundreds, perhaps thousands have died as famine spreads in drought-ravaged Somalia.

And then it will get worse.

ATR: Heart, e-Mow, Pepper H2O

In the reader-pile for you today:  Ure’s Nuclear Treadmill, Electric mowing, our Garden Room heat plan, and a splash for Hank, plus Happy Debbie.

Wow – lots to cover:

Quicker-Ticker:

Due to having a recent run-in with cardiac arrythmias, not to mention an aid buggy ride last month, Wednesday’s Peoplenomics was posted early so I could be in the local clinic at 8 AM for an echo, and 40-minutes later doing the Nuclear Treadmill test.

Short version?  I have two health concerns here at the middle of 73:  One is my resting heart rate (when writing columns) has been dropping.  Yesterday it was 45-46 beats per minute.  Meanwhile blood pressure was going up.

Good news: The echo results are in – and my left ventricle ejection fraction (LVEF) is 70 – which is lots better than the age-adjusted median (60). Harder to have CHF with such a high LVEF. from what I gather, though who knows?

The Tic Dr. and #2 are going over the imagery.

But here’s the thing:  Given how I’ve lived, I was surprised at the (relatively) good internal condition of the ticker. I mean really.

Ran the treadmill up to 130 BPM and on spike recorded BP 220/100.  Then at peak, along came a boatload of PVCs.  Which actually dovetails with my Bradycardia and lower level H BP goings-on.

My nickel bet on  differentialing this to a happy outcome?

I would not be surprised by a referral for a Sleep Study next.  Reason being that serious sleep apnea can cause both arrythmias as well as elevate the old BP skyward.

Only a guess at next steps.  My cardiologist is a marvelous fellow and no idea what – if anything  (I mean besides the alien implant, lol) – will show in nuclear imaging.

One of the great lessons in life – applying to doctors and attorneys – is:  If you  use an expert, listen to them.  We shall see what they find.  I’m just thinking TV show doc.  (Though House was exceptional).

BUT, with 10-1/2 hours of sleep overnight, BP is running 121/61 while pulse remains over 60.  (Though that could be the coffee.)  The Major says CPAP machinery isn’t bad, but you have to get the fit right.

Dirty Fencing – Electric Ranching

Somewhere in the middle of all this, I mow the lawn weekly.  Even got after the fence line by “swinging the electric weed whacker.”

Enough was enough.  I ordered a modest (under $150) cheapo unit.  Like 16-inches.

Small, light and something we can keep going even if the grid goes down by virtue of our solar, the idea is I can clean up the edges and along the fence line a lot faster with more power, no lifting, and just walking around.

Fence lines don’t seem like a big deal inside the City Limits.  But out here in “no local government interference” land fence lines are long.  Overall 6,000 feet plus for us.

In our front yard, there’s a good 120-feet from Coral Snake Grove down to the front gate.  From there, the line runs west past the Pet Cemetery and keeps going till out west of the original greenhouse.  Going down hill, there’s 1,456-feet of barbed down to the county road.

Managing profiles is an important thing to remember in times to come.  We keep the visible part of the property (from the Co. road) as raw, ugly, and inhospitable as possible.

I try to keep around the house pinned-back a bit.  But my point is that Drug Gangs and lower-class people look at a perfectly manicured lawn as “rich people must live there.”

Fact is, being neat, having a perfect lawn, really has very little to do with Wealth.  It does have EVERYTHING to do with hustle and drive, however.

See poor people are generally poor for one simple reason:  They are lazy.

The reality is if you have enough hustle and drive to do the yard, you probably have enough drive left-over to fill out job applications.  Why, just making the conscious decision not to be a loser (lazy piece of shit),  is often about all it takes to get on the train to leave Poverty Row.

Of course, this never occurs to the indolent and lazy.  They look at neat lawns and judge income and asset levels.  Never occurs to them that all that’s really going on is an active mind, some drive, and a dash of follow-through.

The money simply follows.  A point the Lazy Leach class (LLc?) somehow fails to grasp.  The hell of it is, they also mold their offspring into the weak mindset, which is how generational poverty propagates.

Bad mindset is perhaps the primary human disease.

Pepper Water Hank

I did not realize there even was a Hawaiian Pepper Water.  Though, when we lived in the Cayman Islands for a couple of years, there were many Caribbean (and Jamaican) spices and spiced waters.  Some of this can weld mild steel plate to about 16-gauge, or so.

Having to sample (per Hank in Hawaii’s mention) I have a bottle of  Adoboloco Hot Sauce Hawaiian Chili Pepper Water Sauce 5oz – Medium Hot Super Tasty Fiery Chili Pepper Sauce Blend which was on sale on the Zon, to see what gives.

Medium is a bit cowardly.  And even then, I work slowly up to it, adding only enough to turn teriyaki chicken into fuel rod cooling pond chicken.

There’s a Jamaican Jerk Spice jar we still have the Fire Dept. come stand-by while we open it.

Guess we will have to save the rest for tomorrow morning.  My personal time management timer just dinged me out of Writers Reverie.

Except Happy Birthday to our friend Debbie – who is not older; she’s better. She and Elaine have a lot in common like that.

Write when I wake up,

George@Ure.net

2 Weeks to Fed, Awaiting Markets, Shop Talk Monday

[Exceptionally long (for the free side).  But go ahead, take some time and relax with it… Holiday, and all.]

Today’s coffee klatch of day-traders and tool sluts is now in order!

Our usual dose of news, but then back out to our shop as the weekend enters its final hours.  (Gimme a chorus of “Damn!)

Before knuckling down, there is hope.

There’s a very good article on ZDNet today proposing The four-day week will solve some of work’s biggest problems – but only if companies can adapt.

There are plenty of reasons to work the world around into a 4-10 week.  Not the least of which is the environment and the hiring boost it would likely bring.

But companies – and government – rarely listen to the real customer feedback.

You see, we (citizen-victims) have long-ago let loose of the Metrics of Success in America.  Government is largely reporting to Congress on a hit-or-miss.  When it does, it’s another “issues-shuffle” instead of an agency-wide mission audit.

Of course,  companies measure performance by other means.  Such as “free cash available to common” (stock).  Or, they go off in sector dominating which leads to customer disaffection.

One super-large online retailer sent two emails in the last week trying to convince me to read minority-written books.

I almost sent them a surly email, but I’ll say it here, instead.

We ONLY select reading material based on CONTENT and our own INTERESTS.

This is yet- another- symptom of Lost America  which seems a worthy remembrance on this day. While “negative racism” is bad, this retailer’s wandering readership  is actively sold the notion that literary racism (white-shaming) is “positive racism.”

Mainly racists would select their reading material based on race, religion, or national origin of the Author.

When my personal readings and research lead me to spend part of the weekend absorbing The Book of Joy: Lasting Happiness in a Changing World by the Dalai Lama and Desmond Tutu (dandy reader),  race of authors didn’t even cross my mind.

If it does yours?  Get to WDH – Woke Deprogramming Help.  And GTFU.

World In a Nutshell

Big doings this week over Ukraine.

First, we see the Russian media reporting the US/Corporate Cabal has failed to “rumor Putin out of office.”  Russia’s Lavrov Denies Putin Is Ill.  Still, it has been a delightful piece of agitprop which only serves to reinforce our view that this war is about Globalism Taking Over.

Which is odd when I think about it. Vlad Putin defending the world from (crazy and) expansionist Europe.  Are we the only ones beholding the Brussell’s sprouts idea of Globalism Incarnate as a Ponzi scheme of historical proportions?

Look at maps over time and you’ll see how the megalomaniacs first acquired gently and through largely off-books negotiation has really played.  What we’re seeing in Ukraine is the EU’s version  of “Buy or Die.”

This is the “Die” part.

Behind the curtain, away from the EU puppeteer’s frantic movements, we also see a religious conflict of some consequence.  Patriarch Kirill ‘Understands’ Ukraine Church Schism – in The Moscow Times.

Seems both sides of this conflict are nominally committed to the same 10 Commandments.  How honest or robust can warring religions be?  And so continues sunset for spiritual toll-takers.

Brussel’s intransigence is assured as a possible turning point in the war is reached as Russian troops entering Sievierodonetsk in eastern Ukraine.  Couple this with EU members meeting to “demand” Russian energy. (Vlad’s no fool, he has Europe over a barrel.)

This will be gingerly rolled by the Corporate, Co-Opted press.  Because the whole “meetings whether to join the US with oil sanctions” discussion reminds both of us “thinking people” that the high gas prices and famine coming arer all created by Slow Biden.

EUROPE has unhindered energy from Russia.

The US sanctions merely brought back crooked accounting.  As a new stage of markup was added to the business model by Biden.  We are led by the most dangerous teleprompter reader in America.

A Memorial, Perhaps?

Our Power-Based Future

Some holiday neurons, perhaps, in the direction of how our future is shaping up is in order.  Anyone can play, though many people won’t exercise “command authority” over their own lives.

Here’s a newspaper laying the groundwork for government grants on battery storage technology.  Battery storage necessary for solar power expansion | Miami Herald.  While (thumbs to a different page of his self-published one-man newspaper)  Chinese Mining Billionaire To Invest $300 Million In Zimbabwe Lithium Project.

Thus, you can see how this will roll:  new variants of lithium technology are sure to follow.

But at the macro view, the same corporate drive to consume, looks to us like it will do to Zimbabwe the same way slavers did 200-years ago.

Field hands to lithium – something instructive about Global abuse of Africa if you think about it.  And who made the money on the gold, diamonds, and minerals of South Africa?

Each time indigenous peoples get screwed, there’s a sales pitch trying to convince the masses it’s for their own good.  Some examples? “Oh, this new labor source for plantations!” Or, perhaps in Amsterdam “This diamond business model will make us a fortune!”  Right down through “Lithium batteries will save the Planet!

Yeah, sure, you betcha.

Speaking of Climate

A not everyday story this morning will provide entertainment into the first part of the week.  On the Pacific Side of Central America, we have Hurricane Agatha about to slam tourist places on the coast of Mexico.

Thing is, if you hit the National Hurricane Center, you can see the case for it to “jump over onto the Caribbean side.  Like so:

Once it gets into the Gulf of Mexico – perhaps in a week – then trouble might be brewing somewhere between the RGV and Tampa.

But this is not a story about weather.  It’s really about Gender change.

You see, when I read Hurricane Agatha could spawn Alex, first named Atlantic storm, I just had to ask “Where is the gender-bending storm-naming convention online?

Don’t we need to pop a few billion over that way?

D.J. Ure’s musical accompaniment pick for Winnipeg audiences is Martha & the Vandellas – Heatwave – YouTube. Do Canadians ever learn to spell “heat” outside of the physics track?

Good luck chilling out this weekend: Heat Waves in the U.S.: Record high temperatures spurring cities to take action.  Which, when you read it one particularly jaundiced way, reads like yet-another warning of government expansion of power – ever.

“Pull over buddy,  we need to check that your vehicle’s air conditioning is set correctly…”

There’s no limit to the lust for power.  Only a limit to money and how many people can be screwed at once.

Adventures of Nancy

Offered without comment: Nancy Pelosi’s husband arrested for suspected DUI Hats off to Napa, CA police for enforcing the laws.

I’ve always harbored questions about how Nancy and Hubby’s work schedule would play out.  “Not tonight dear, I have a Congress.” To something like “Sure I’ll take out the trash, soon as I’m done buying California…”  Anyway, such idle speculations come to close to work.

Let’s wander toward the…

ShopTalk Monday: New Tools!

When I go tool shopping, which is about every day, seems, nothing is more fund than the arrival of Santa.

Santa – being really with the times – dresses up as different people.  The Mailperson, the UPS Person, and the FedEx Dude.

Here are some useful new tools.  Starting with the bottle cutter:

bottle cutter

It was $50-bucks, but I never had much luck with the manual glass cutters.  But even I may be able to whittle a drinking glass from a wine bottle.

What was the first one I remember?  “The Amazing Flemming Glass and bottle cutter!”   Wetted abrasive and 5,000 RPMs may get me there, yet.

Yet Another Welder!

Like the oxy-acetylene rig, MIG wire, and argon-breathing TIG, plus a stick welder were not enough?

These guys are going in the $30 dollar range on eBay.

Our tired old oxy-acetylene rig. Good for cutting things too big for the plasma rig (1/2″)

You can also buy a Micro Welder Torch for $24 bucks.  I have never dinked around with one of these, but it could be interesting.

If you’re after something a bit better on build quality? The original (category) welder was probably the Smith Little Torch.  Which has a much nicer finish, not doubt.  It all comes back to the reason for purchase, I suppose.

A related note is YesWelder has some pretty nice optics on their new wide-vision welding masks.  It was $90 bucks, but the improvement in welds (for half-blind me) was noticeable.

What you’re looking for (to see welds better than most home Makers) would be something that is a: Solar Powered Auto Darkening Welding Helmet, True Color Highest Optical 1/1/1/1, 4 Arc Sensor Wide Shade 4/5-9/9-13″ or better.  I picked this one.

Still Cleaning

Cleaning the shop.  Which entails a lot of work moving machines around to more (or less) workable positions.

Usefully,  Amazon had  tool boxes on sale recently.  I picked up a chest with four drawers because I hate pawing through shit to find the one thing I need.

One of these ended up as a workstation-specific tool chest for the 3D/CNC work area:

Serious tool note:  You will notice that I have ball-end Allen wrenches in rgar drawer.  If you only have the solid (chopped end) variety, do yourself a favor.  HUGE difference as the tool is much for forgiving of alignment.

Label Making

Part and parcel of shop cleaning is also tool labeling. I found myself doing this so that in case I keel-over some day (another way of saying careening for the nautically inept), I have been labeling everything in the shop.

Honestly, Brother makes some fair label-printers.  I used to be able to remember where every tool is – and tell anyone where to find what.

Thing now – as the shop has become more populated with three of everything – Elaine can’t come over and find something on her own.

Now, while Amazon has a good assortment of thermal label markers, I would caution you that in a Texas shop, the thermal paper becomes illegible after 7-8 years.

I was going to relabel the under-bench tools (blow-molded boxes for things like the Sawz-All), but more and more the projects we’re doing evolve either to stationary or battery powered tools.

If you need time sinks to fill out the rest of the weekend, there is never a shortage of garage or “storage room” crap that could be labeled.

Maker Video of the Week

How about a complete 49 min build of an electric car from two bicycles?  Check this out:

Absolutely AMAZING skills.  And (in case you didn’t notice) NOT made in the U.S.A.

Again, more evidence that a country isn’t worth a crap when it forgets to work with its hands.

Survival and strong Industrial Arts seem to go hand-in-hand.

As China is teaching to all but the myopic left.

Asian markets were up 2 percent overnight.  Europe is up half a percent, or so.  But after the opening fray in the US tomorrow?  We will be only 2-weeks from the next Fed FOMC raise.  Well, unless they bend to political pressure and get things wrong once again.

Write when you’re right,

George@Ure.net