Breaking: Consumer Prices & the Wuhan Willies

Consumer Prices are just out from thge Labor Department:

“The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.1 percent in January on a seasonally adjusted basis, after rising 0.2 percent in December, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.5 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for shelter accounted for the largest part of the increase in the
seasonally adjusted all items index, with the indexes for food and for medical care services also rising. These increases more than offset a decrease in the gasoline index, which fell 1.6 percent in January. The energy index declined 0.7 percent, and the major energy component indexes were mixed. The index for food rose 0.2 percent in January with the indexes for both food at home and food away from home increasing over the month.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in January after increasing 0.1 percent in December.

The main “newsy thing” here is to ,look at the spread between the All Items CPI and the All Items Less Food and Energy because the latter is what drives Fed Decisions.

With All Items up 2.5% for the year and Less Food & Energy up a like amount, no reason for the Fed to change it’s self-admittedly unsustainable Making Up Money regimen.

One feature of which, this morning, was to throw a mere $78.85  -billion of repo’s on the first.  With futures down how much?

This will be fun to watch.  To see what they’re up against, go down to the beach at low tide.  Now, start writing checks and write like a sonovabitch and let us know if it slows the tide’s behavior…  We will see how much they toss in to the afternoon to prevent “disorderly conduct” charging into the market.

COVID-19 Jumps

Besides uncertainty about how this morning’s consumer price report would lay out, the Biggie in background is the latest corona virus numbers.

Huge jumps overnight: 60,349 infected and body count up to 1,370.

My consigliere, who has a friend who got out of Wuhan safely (and educator) has been all over this.  While we wait for iPhone make Foxconnto return to work, (see: “Foxconn says recent Reuters reports on factory resumption in China were not factual”)  we’ve gone to wondering about product quarantines.  Reports that the virus can remain alive on surfaces for perhaps 10-days, or longer, we’re wondering about air cargo shipments of phones to the USA?

Will the US Gov run the risk of letting in phones, not certain of their surfaces, which might spawn some pop-up cases of COVID-19 in the USA?  Or, will the phones be quarantined and ozoned and UV-C’ed for a couple of weeks?

We know the answer, of course.  Corporations need money and phones in inventory won’t kick up revenue.  The phones must get through.  “No Risk” mantra at the ready.

That said, I trust you also saw reports that the methodology used by China to count cases has been changed and that’s why the short-term decline rate-of-increase in reported cases the past few?   Decepticons in the newsrooms?

Sure…like I hinted earlier this week, best time for the rich to sell off is after THE LAST claim that there’d be no recession this year and the market was going up.

1929 Replay Complete!

It’s not perfect – yet – but let me share one subscriber-side morsel:

“Spoiler Alert:  We could be here a good while. But the Replay of 1929 is effectively complete!

Just because the market has mostly completed the manic rally, it doesn’t mean that we might not have another 10% – and maybe more – upside left to go….

As of this morning, our Aggregate Index (an equal dollar summation of multiple markets) looks like this::

Yum…cash and shorts…may have to get out the Scrooge McDuck suit, eventually, but way early for that.

The Tentacles of Mitt?

Long read, but worthwhile, methinks.

The half-hearted, lackluster Mainstream Media is often (OK, usually.,..) wrong in their implied conclusions.  Let a 71 year old news-geeze walk you through what to us in OBVIOUS.  You can’t help but learn a few things in half a century of dot-connecting.

Let’s begin with the story about how Attorney General William  “Barr takes control of legal matters of interest to Trump, including Stone sentencing.”  The subhead to the story is “Attorney General William Barr’s intervention in Roger Stone’s case wasn’t the first time senior political appointees reached into a case involving an ex-Trump aide, officials say..”

Gimme a call on the (Vince Foster Memorial) news tip line if you want to talk politics and investigations, some time.

While the wild-eyed Trump-hating Left may take the bait to shout “abuse of power” a quick search of the OpenSecrets website reveals the reportedly demoted at DoJ shares the same name as this database search report shows.

And that report, over some years, shows donations (if accurate) of up to  $10- thousand dollars to Anti-Trumper Mitt Romney over the years!

You know…Mitt Romney who was the one key republican (in name only) who grandstanded (um…grandstood?  Where’s my OED?) against Trump at the Senate impeachment vote?  None other!

This particular campaign contrib search of “the name” du jour shows apparent support of Marco Rubio, John McCain, and George Bush.  10-large for Mittens?

Which means nothing, until it does.  You see, there is not ONE Republican party anymore – you’ve been hoodwinked again, sappling!  There are TWO. Let’s call one wing the Swamp Drainers and the other the Swamp Fillers. Mittens fills, Trump tries.

Not to be too conspiratorial here, but by the dawn’s early light, it appears to us that Donald Trump is not only trying to clear out a well-orchestrated Deep State on the Left (that made-up the Russia Collusion fraud, fed bullshit to the left-infiltrated media swine, and followed with an impeachment fiasco by some Schiffty characters) but that this same Deep State is likely to have crossed party lines to “get Trump.”

You’ve got three parties in America now:  Commies, Corporates, and Swamp Drainers.  (Two out of three want your gun rights…)

The DoJ failure to promptly prosecute Andrew McCabe, and perp walk the other third rail FBI perps, *as we review “how the Deep State plays”) reveals to us an unwritten   “gentleman’s agreement”  – a kind of cocktail-hour MOU – between the two legacy parties masquerading as representing The People.

Lefties offer to play with Mitt – and Mitt is an “influencer.”  Friends in high places, you follow?

Meanwhile, since the DoJ attorney in reports was linked to the slam-sentence of Roger Stone, we’re wondering if there was any influence between any Mittens loyalists and due process?

We do not expect any of this to see the light of day, especially in the MSM.  That’s because corporate back-scratching pays very, very well.  “You bury my story, I’ll give you something juicier” is how it’s played.  Made much easier by propaganda-filled Marxist indoctrination of the newsroom stooges in so-called J-schools, where the real Junior Journo brain-washing takes place.

Five W’s and an H are toast.  Situational advocacy (see open borders for examples, or sanctuary lawbreaker excuses) rule the day.  Picture of a sobbing kid, a distraught young girl…suddenly law-breaking if a stupid people rallying-cry.

A little too direct?  Tough shit.  We gotta believe our instruments or this plane will crash. (It may, anyway…)

Big picturing then:  Having failed with a frontal attack on Trump by the Obamanista’s set-up, implants, and (still not prosecuted) abuse of the national security apparatus, it seems to us the second of the three party-system has gotten onto the dance floor with the first.

You’ll need Inspiration, or FreeMind, to keep your “mind-map” of this f/u’ed “pseduo-Reality”  up to date.  Inspiration 9 works for us, but if you want to cobble up an database connector, FreeMind is better and you can get it on Source Forge here.

(If your conspiratorial mind envisions Chief Nostracodeus Programmer Grady, sipping wine on early spring days in Alberta, while pondering how to write a compact connector to the OpenSecrets.org database, with the idea of mapping the money and outputting it into a 3-D display, that would be wholly unfounded.  What’s more, if you think he might pick up the phone and see if we could scopre a free development copy of ThinkMap – which is the 3D visualizer underlying VisualThesaurus, you’d be completely delusional and wrong.

On the other hand, since “long-chain application processing” is interesting, using the core Nostracodeus code to scan the net and process, connector to OpenSecrets for financials along with some other online sources to delineate power and money influencers, displayed in ThinkMap and then ported into an autostereoscopic 3D presenation platform – like Alioscopy – would be totally bitchin-cool and within reach.

Sadly, living in an attention deficit world popped with single-concept sheep, at age 71 and check-out time on the horizon somewhere, it’s not the scale new project I’d like to take on. my limits aside, it ought to have been figured by the soon to be dying legacy news world which can’t see the PR Brick Wall ahead.

REAL news – in the future – will be migrating to the cross-correlated data sets variety and those who don’t get it will prosper only briefly until disrupted (like us?) as DBNS (data based news sets) comes along and offers deep (and useful)  drill-down analysis for non-sheep.

For now, the world meltdown is in slow motion because, as revealed in Warren Buffett’s lower-key genius sidekick “Munger Tells His Newspaper Company That Papers Are Finished..”  (Note to average ewe-alls:  Charlie and Warren are rich because they a) spot trends and b) put their money on winners.)

If Munger gets it, Buffett gets it.…and the transition from “the news” to “the data platforms” can begin.  More this weekend in Peoplenomics for subscribers rich enough to pop $40-bucks a year for what’s coming, not “what was” or a micreant series of delusions under “our corporate agendas” – which is what’s behind most paywalls, but I digress… )

We COULD offer some “informed speculation” about how the Left in Washington, and the RINO Right have an alignment of interests to put extra pressue on Trump while he “going hard on Trade.”  But, that would lead to more speculative computer runs.  And absent an impartial grand jury to “follow the money” we don’t see the point.

But, the question lingers:  Who’s “doing” who?

Ah, my little yearlings – back you go to the Drudgery in the “flat news” world.

Just telling you in advance that within 10-years, there will be a new kind of news and just like the  Johns Hopkins view of COVID-10 in ArcGIS. if you’re not remodeling your mental space to accomodate other than “rip and rewrite” flat-lander pap, you’re on a one way ride to the digital slaughter house.  Digital Victimhood, orchestrated by the Digital Uprising enroute to Digital Mob Rule.

Your need go read some old books.  Like Daiel Yergin’s 2002 book “The Commanding Heights : The Battle for the World Economy” because the answer has been apparents for 20-years.  The code is still closely held, but let this be enough of a hint for how as to who the power players are (informationists) and who the sheep are (ewe).

The rest of the flow this morning – beyond panic going “viral” and CPI kicking up it’s heels – and will iPhones be quarantined…what else really mattrers but love and taxes?

I apologize to  Peoplenomics subscribers for doing “Peoplenomics-like” content here.  More coming, though.

Write when you get smart,

george@ure.net

Markets In Denial – Goldman Hypes – (MoR) Pending

You have permission to be confused.  Not just a little bit, but totally  totally awed by how much denial, misdirectioin, and partial truth is afoot in the world.  Too early to label as the opening round of the Decline of Civilization, but the indicators are murky, at best.  Could be…

On the Plus Side

MarketWatch had a real interesting story cross Monday:  “Goldman Sachs says impact of coronavirus will be ‘limited,’ and these are the stocks to buy if it’s right .”

That left my  consigliere and me wondering by late Monday afternoon if someone wasn’t “talking their book” – a technique where major players sometimes say one thing (we’re heading higher ahead) while unloading (distribution) stock holdings to remaining “greater fools.”  No conclusions, but we do have serious suspicions.

Then there’s Bitcoin which kissed $10,000 Monday but which is back down to $9,872 as of click-time this morning.  Wuham is being used as a marketing gimmick now by this digital tulip sales-types.

Just out in time for coffee #2 is this press release:

WASHINGTON, D.C. (Feb. 11, 2020) — The small business Optimism Index started the New Year in the top 10% of all readings in the 46-year history of the survey, rising 1.6 points to 104.3 in the month of January. Six of the 10 Index components improved, two declined, and two were unchanged, with the Uncertainty Index edging up slightly. Owners expecting better business conditions dipped slightly, but sales expectations and earnings trends improved significantly. As was reported last week, actual job creation surged in January.

The market put on another good (unjustified, but that’s what blow-off mega-tops are about)  run Monday.  We expect a large portion of that may be due to the massive injections of repo and reverse-repo dough from the NY Fed Trading desk.

The idea of a repo (big picturing a bit) is that I give you a sack full of somewhat illiquid financial assets (want a bag of sub-prime CMO’s?) and you give me cash.  I dump that into the market, forcing it to go up, at which point I sell, then “buy-back” the sack of illiquid assets.  Whee!  Rinse, repeat, repeat…repeat…and eventually buy the whole freaking Universe!

At some point, this means of keeping the market up will run out of steam.  But, since Fed Boss J Powell says it’s “game-on to April” we aren’t too worried about the bottom falling out until then.  See if he stays with that in his talking points this week.

There IS  Major Risk!

The risk is that smart people (readers of this column, mostly) will figure out that Wuhan is on the verge of taking down the World Economy.  Consider what we have seen so far:

  • Many borders are terribly limited – most closed to China – isn’t Hong Kong down to only 2 open?
  • What about the Cruise Ships that are in mass quarantines and they’ve been locked up for coming up on 2-1/2 weeks.  You’d think the authorities could at leastr throw a load of Budnker C intoi the bilge so these victims could get back into toning up their tans, right?  (Washie-washie?)  For those with fuel? Carnival cruise ship is running out of ports after 4 nations block entry on coronavirus fears.
  • The death toll screamed into 4-digits overnight:  43,128 confirmed cases and 1,018 dead (and climbing).

I received a small package of electronics from China last night (parts for the time machine project, eh?) and, suddenly, the investment in lots of nitrile gloves, bleach, and that super high-powered ozone generator didn’t seem at all silly.  Nor does the investment in Hibi-clens soap and many of the other extreme precautions we suggested as “mental grist and purchase) two weeks back when the MSM was still trying to portray “calm in government.”

That’s b ecause we sensed governments in  utter panic than no one want to be the first to mention anything.  Brings back the “Emperor’s New Clothes” tale, in many ways.  The WHO today calls the crisis “grave.”  My, what a choice of words…

MoR: The “Moment of Recognition”

Most people don’t think like me.  Probably a good thing.  Because, if they did, they’d be in an extremely  defensive posture,  blowing off playing the long side of any markets right now and remaining in cash and equivalents.

We have two MASSIVE Recognition Moments in the wings and all that remains is a “triggering event” for either to “become Real” at which point, you are either on the right side of personal strategic planning, or you’re screwed.

Remember, we quietly laid-in some additional bleach in early January when word of Wuhan began to circulate.  If you consider yourself so wise, count up how many N100 masks, and how many cartons of nitrile gloves are on hand.  There’s your scorecard, like it or not.

The First Moment of Recognition (MoR)

Obviously, it’s Wuhan-corona.  For now, outfits like Amazon are continuing to soar.  But, let me wonder how long before the supply chain from places like China begin to get a bit thin?  Could Wuhan lead to a massive shift in the global economy?

One model is that goods from Asia could be “contaminated” – of course, we are not saying they are, but how long is the virus able to persist at room temperature?  Lots of “estimates” but would you bet your life on “estimates?”  We think that’s poor decision-making, if you do.   We like science – and the more the merrier right now.

A hiccup in Amazon’s supply chain may not be orequired.  How many of the cruise lines will be around in a year if this thing “gets legs” out of China.  Or, for that matter, what is the ripple if people notice Boeing filing for bankruptcy due to people getting less interested in spending 3-hours in “germ tubes?”  Or, what happens when the first hotel chain, rental car company or….large event marketing company (we have some May concert tickets, don’t forget!) has to cancel an event over reasonable caution to contain spread?

We never had a SARS MoR that damaged markets much, so the mechanics of how it will hatch, germinate, and begin to spread panic is somewhat unknown.  But we will be fascinated to see how the Fed Boss walks the linguistic tightrope later today.

The headline Under Armour Shares Crash, Blames China is “the pits” – but it could begin a wave.  And the wave is good-bye.

MoR #2 Could Federal Showdown Over Sanctuaries

Like MoR #1 pending, the most recent data we have on MoR of a deeply divided nation dates back to the mid 1850’s when the US was moving into a Civil War.

The difference between slavery (very bad) and open borders (also very bad) may not seem of similar scale, but in terms of behavioral economics they may be.

Just as the South built a business model on suppression of people’s rights and exploitation of a racial minority, the same could also be said of liberalista states.  Which have been, in my view, exploiting illegal immigrants to cover-up excessive government and sky-high tax rates.  If population can be forced up, guess what the empire builders in  government get?  Big Empires!!!  Green star for you!

The German Model (involving Muslim mass immigration from the Middle East) was to embrace them because of the clear short-term benefit to consumptionEveryone eats, needs a house and so forth.

What has changed in the past day is that U.S. Attorney General William “Barr Announces ‘Significant Escalation’ Efforts to Combat Sanctuary Policies.

Again, the problem we have with Sanctuary governments is that they have strayed from Everyone is Equal policies.  If an American Citizen were to sneak in over a border, do you think a state of do-gooders, running an Anglo-European version (in their own minds) of a latter-day Underground Railroad would lobby for more white people enerting America? Voting?  No?  Well, that’s institutional racism, then.  It’s also a violation of equal protection and it supports the drug cartels.

I could go on and on about dangers – inequalities and illegalities – sponsored by left-wing social/online revolutionaries, but as Elon Musk has wisely instructed #DeleteFacebook.  We’d like to see social manipulation turned into a felony, while we’re at it.

On the political front, Pete Buttigieg is pleasantly in a dead-heat with Bernie Sanders on the old socialist’s home turf. Pete’s more reasonable that the Bernunist, as we figure it.

Which ought to tell you something about how blow-back against radicals is beginning to surface.  No doubt, Barr’s “getting hard” on sanctuaries will not be popular – especially amongst Trump-haters.  Who value their hate, more than evenly and uniformly applied laws.

The bottom line?  The MoR of AmRev2 doesn’t seem close at hand if you’re white and ignoring the noise and hate, calls for insurrection, and half-truths spewing from the barricade bunch.  But the spinning of Trump-hate into calls of racism and then moving hate-blinded supporters towards civil insurrection is a familiar track, well trodden by two-bit dicks and dictators throughout history.  Oh, and on both sides of the aisle, politically,

Can the FedGov defuse this long-running mess – a left-behind gift basket from the street-corner agitator’s Administration – in time?  Or, is the communist takeover of America now a fait accompli?   We’ll have to  get back you on that.

Trackable Trends

Blinded by the rise: CoreLogic Reports U.S. Overall Delinquency Rate Lowest for a November in at Least 20 Years.  Best times since the 1990’s say some.

US Futures Soar To New Record Highs On “Coronavirus Optimism” Ahead Of Powell Testimony – that NFIB report didn’t hurt.  Futures are up another hunsky on the Dowe as markets play “pass the crack pipe” and how close to the brick wall can we get?

CNBC reports that Hasbro shares soar as ‘Star Wars,’ ‘Frozen 2’ toys fueled holiday sales.  But we have to ask: “Where are they made, people?”

Whee!!!  $67.915 in free-po’s today.  And they tossed in $830 million after lunch yesterday.  We shouldn ‘t be surprised at more by lunch time…This bull’s gotta eat.

Has a voracious appetite for  sound economics.

Write when you get rich,

george@ure.net