Finance

Israel was founded May 14, 1948.  So, by our reckoning, their 72-year cycle “existential war” should not begin until late winter or early spring of next year. Yet, here we are on the verge of a quick, decisive ground war into PLO/Gaza land almost a year ahead of historical cycles. The US market is set … Read More

The most significant thing on this agenda today is Job numbers. As always, there is a hype number and there are real numbers.  Here’s the key part of the actual data to look at: Since I’ve been writing “news” for half a century now, here’s how an honest press release would read based on the … Read More

The storm clouds are already gathering.  Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve announced a continuation of the L4L (lower for longer) interest rate protocol.  They couldn’t raise rates. And today, the Bank of England followed suit, announcing: “Our Monetary Policy Committee has voted unanimously to maintain Bank Rate at 0.75%. The committee also voted unanimously to … Read More

Here, have another witch hunt? Unable to come up with “collusion” or even an obstruction of justice charge, democrats are now pinning their hopes on the incoming New York state attorney general. Gotham media, like the NY Times are bashing away, in concert with the newly forming New York lynch mob in stories like “Trump … Read More

There’s so much on the economic “dance card” this week that extra deodorant may be needed by Friday.  Let’s begin with a short boogie through some news, shall we? First however:  Many people hate Mondays, but compared to other days of the week, we get off easy. For one, there are only 52 of them … Read More

There is a dandy quote in “Technical Analysis of Stock Trends” (Edwards & Magee, 7th ed. 1998, p. 493) that goes like this: “C. If you are not committed in the stock.  Consider a penetration and close beyond the limit of the correction between  the Tops (or Bottoms) as a signals of a Reversal, and … Read More

One of our readers posted (in the Comment section) a report that expert Elliott Wave analyst Robert Prechter was throwing in the towel on this – right now – being the start of “The Big One.”  In his estimate, the Elliott structure suggests that collapse will not happen for another year…maybe two. IF that report … Read More

My life-long buddy (the Major) is visiting for a while.  And he reports, he’s been a victim this trip of airline or TSA theft from his luggage. Before leaving his home up in the Seattle area, he placed a very nice pair of LL Bean slippers in his suitcase.  Last item in, he is certain … Read More

This morning’s Chicago Fed Data in a minute.  First, though, some really-clear Monday morning thinking… My buddy (the Major) showed up last night and predictably – since we have both been ham radio buddies since getting our licenses about the same time in the early 1960’s – I fired up the radio gear and there … Read More

It this Joe Brandt’s time?  Explaining this takes a bit, but since it’s a semi-holiday, read on…. This being Good Friday, the stock and bond markets (US) are closed.  But, that doesn’t mean they aren’t just interesting as all get-out. The reason is the grand historical rhyme continues.  Specifically, one which we track comparing 1929 … Read More

Seems like everyone, especially the big “snooze papers” are all over the Mueller investigation as the Big Story of the day. Got news for you:  It’s not. The bigger problem is sorting out what goes on when the present “virtuous cycle” comes grinding to a halt. OK, what’s a “virtuous cycle” anyway? If you begin … Read More