Some “Good News:” About Doomporn

It is an odd topic to be on this morning, after being a guest on a highly regarded national radio show (Coast2Coast with George Noory) last night. 

Especially on a morning when speculation over whether the NK nuke test fired the Hydrogen “bigger bomb” material.

While the show always has an interesting assortment of people on, few bring their comments from previous years with them.  I happen to be an exception, I suppose.

But my optimism about 2016 could quickly fade late this year, or early in 2017.  So this morning a kind of summary of where we are in the rhymes of history and how you may wish to prepare for what comes next.

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Migration is a Money & Growth Addiction Problem

Before anything else this morning (including our latest “told you so” on markets) we have to look at couple of immigration stories under the harsh light of cash flow analysis.

The first story to consider is this:  “U.S. Begins Immigration Crackdown on Central Americans. “

Again, government is operating as a bad comedian – telegraphing the punchline ahead of time: These “raids” have been carefully announced weeks in advance – giving the serious criminals plenty of time to relocate and to avoid the “sweep.”  Theatrics or Kabuki, it’s a poor show.

As an aficionado of classic R&B, might I suggest an old Johnny Mathis and Deniece Williams song captures the reality nicely?

Meantime, back at hard Reality: The Obama administration is about to shed immigration caps through the presidential decree process – also known as executive orders.

If this seems contradictory and confusing, please consider that it is merely a “flow of funds” problem.

The reason for the publicly touted “raids” is that Americans are reading stories, almost daily, about the mayhem the non-assimilating populations are causing in Eurabian cities like those in Germany.

But when the facts are collected, it becomes apparent that the immigrant population of America is still on trajectory set to grow the immigrant population massively: In fact “ Immigrant Population to Increase 715% by 2060, Census Data Show.”

What we come to is that the ugliest secret of capitalism is alive and well:  Capitalism – in order not to fall apart – must always operate in the “growth mode.”  By doing so, there is a good chance that a virtuous cycle can be realized.  think of it as positive feedback.

But when growth disappears, what happens?  Suddenly the reverse occurs.  Demand for social services climb, the cost of government soars, and programs sold as a social net – like Social Security – face long-term bankruptcy because of actuarial finance:  The demand for benefits will outstrip the income within 20-years, or so.  Answer?  More people to pay more into the system!

This unfunded long-term retirement liability is powering the EU’s inflows, as well.

Which means, simply put:  Government must ensure growth at any cost.  The German stock market has outperformed the other markets of Europe since 2009 in large part because they have embraced immigration.

The Krauts got onto the mechanics of this when the Wall came down in 1989.  Rather than experience a mini-depression from assimilation of East Germany, there was something of a boom.  And so with their economy needing constant reinforcement, bring in the foreigners!

Yet there is a terrible cost of unchecked immigration.  We’re just seeing reports this morning of how more than 1,000 immigrant men went on a rape and pillage New Years:

German police hunt for group of up to 1,000 men ‘of Arab and North African origin’ who sexually assaulted numerous women and threw fireworks into crowds at Cologne train station on New Year’s Eve…

The U.S.

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Coping: Radio Appearance Tonight

No, I have not personally orchestrated a global financial hiccup in order to add drama to my radio appearance, but…

1.  I will be on Coast to Coast AM with George Noory from 12 midnight to 2 AM Central (10 PM to Midnight Pacific.  And if you’re on the East Coast, you’re already so dad-gum smart you probably know the time already.

But just to make sure, especially for readers who happen to work in government, that would be when it’s dark and the little hand is on the one…

2.  NO!  I am not that George Ure – the one whose name appears in the current Journal of Clinical Virology as a contributor to a study “Performance of Determine Combo and other Point-of-Care HIV Tests Among Seattle MSM.”

That’s my son, George II.  And yes, Dad is always proud of resume fodder.  Same kid who won a Seattle-King County Red Cross Hero of the Year award for disaster work in Joplin, MO a couple of years back…and who has been doing range-testing of texting extension thingy under canopy for some New York RF engineering outfit.  Getting 14.4 miles out of it…but more on that some other morning.

Dad is hounding him to finish his paramedic cert and go the physician assistant route…but I never listened to my dad, either.  (Especially when he was right about things…)

3.  My left hand is puffed up size of a small golf ball thanks to tripping on a big steel sliding door whizzy down at the hangar on Monday.

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Crisis Mechanics: How Moving Pieces Fit

The new year started with a near 7% drop in the Shanghai stock market, so thanks for that, China.

The tumblers in the great lock of history are falling into place quickly.  With the Dow set to open down about 300-points and the Eurostoxx 50 was already down 4%.  (In fairness it bounced so as to only be down 3.5% a few minutes later…)

Just to keep this in perspective, 4% of last week’s closing Dow would be almost 700 points to the downside, so even if we drop, oh, 350-points today, there’s not often a one-day drop of this magnitude without follow-on selling into the next day.

How this all works out – and how important it is – depends on what you do for a living.

Since much of UrbanSurvival and our subscription www.peoplenomics.com is future-oriented (so you will be rational when the irrational happens), we see this as a precursor to violent conflict to the two factions of Islam.

It is a precursor because the Sunni Saudis have broken relations with Shiite Iran and it doesn’t stop there:  Bahrain this morning (also Sunni) threw out relations with Iran.

If you are looking at things from the strategic Saudi angle, this makes a lot of sense. Because the price of oil is so low (and as the late Matthew Simmons pointed out in his landmark book Twilight in the Desert years back) the Saudis are getting killed to the tune of perhaps a billion dollars a day by low oil prices.

Water-cut is their problem – that how much water comes up with how much oil.

Since the Kingdom is run on a kind of royal welfare system that money shortage from cheap oil and water-cut is a major problem.

We see in the context of great books (like Report from Iron Mountain)_ whether useful fiction or a leaked and changed around playbook, that the Saudis have a serious issue in keeping their civilian population under control.

That – sadly – is one of the traditional uses of warfare:  To keep civilian populations under the thumb of government. 

In the current case, a “good war” with an “evil empire” will be quite saleable within deeply polarized nations of Islam.    It will not only be a war (really caused by low oil prices) but a war during which control of their civilian population will be key.  As we told you long ago, never forget the Saudis were buying at least one atomic bomb from Pakistan.

We are also looking at this as a stock trader this morning.  Since 2015 was a “”whole freaking year” of no real advance in prices, we should be seeing in here a  major decline I have been warning Peoplenomics readers about for weeks.

In fact, here’s a chart with my green target area for this week’s close circled, as well as a yellow (worst case) level.

As we’re currently expecting things to roll, the decline this week (and perhaps next, but less likely) will be brief and hard, hitting one or both of our targets.  I suspect both, but I’ll update the chart tomorrow to see which target is hit, although if money (and hanging onto what you have) matters, you’d already be reading Peoplenomics so this stuff wouldn’t come as  Monday morning shocker.

But from there, we should see a major turn of fortunes as the commercials load up at bargain prices over the next couple of weeks and then run things up a bit as they did in the late fall of 2008.

There remains a good chance, though that optimism  will persist through the presidential follies, although if they don’t, then Depression II could be along in just a few minutes time.

Our best guess, however, is that the current escalation path toward war will be shortened because neither the U.S. nor Russians (who are backing the Shiites by backing Assad and selling nuke plants to Iran) will stand for it.

In many ways, the U.S.

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Coping: With a Machiavellian Nightmare

This will be one of our most to-the-point columns in years.  It will make an interesting companion to this morning’s Nightmare on Wall Street which will break out shortly.

It has to do with a Machiavellian nightmare that I had this morning about 5:00 AM.

Before I lay it out for you, first a word or three about Machiavellian Intelligence, borrowed from Wikipedia:

In cognitive science and evolutionary psychology, Machiavellian intelligence (also known as political intelligence or social intelligence) is the capacity of an entity to be in a successful political engagement with social groups.

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Bankers Planned “Permanent Migration”– in 2008!

Yes, the banker class has been planning this since at least 2008.  We found a document to support that assertion.

Yes, we have made much in in the past couple of weeks about what is really going on with the global economic picture.  Most notably, we explained that the main reason why there has been such a huge – and sudden – trade in human immigration is for one very raw fact:

Immigration allows governments to “make-up growth.”

The mechanics of this are simple – and crystal clear when you review the data from our Wednesday report.

Today, we tackle a slightly broader issue:  How are some of the other ways that “Growth can be made-up?”  but more to the point….who’s been planning this?  The answer won’t surprise you.

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2017: The Countdown Begins–24 Months Tops

The Migrations are colliding and… Yes…they should flower in conflict in?  2017.

Earlier this week, I asked readers to submit their opinions as to which of our articles have made the most difference in their lives – and would be suitable for submission in annual “column writing” competitions.

So to start the year off, here’s a recent article from our subscriber side, www.peoplenomics.com where we deal quite seriously with the future before-it-gets-here.

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