Month: June 2015

Unusually short columns today and Monday because Elaine and I will be going down to the old Beechcrate in a few minutes and loading ‘er up for a treck to the northlands.

Our route of flight this morning will take us from Palestine, Texas, up over Athens, TX, then on to Ardmore, OK.  From there it will be Dodge City, direct.

Dodge City is an interesting stop because it has the Boot Hill Casino and there’s also a pretty interesting museum and shopping district.  Good steaks are available at several places.

Saturday morning’s Peoplenomics report will be posted extremely early (like 5 AM) tomorrow so we can “get outta Dodge” and be on our way up to Gillette, Wyoming.  (Do I know how to show a girl the hot spots, or what?)

We had planned to fly into Sheridan, Wyoming, but come to find out there’s a Toby Keith (and maybe Keith Urban band) show in there tomorrow night and there’s not a hotel room to be had within 50-miles.  So that’s why Gillette.

Sunday morning, depending on weather, we will leave Gillette and mosey over to Billings, then follow I-90 up to Livingston, past one of my favorite airspace markers (ZUBLI) and then down into Bozeman.

Here, a decision will be made of fuel.  Depending on fuel we will either stop or keep going on up (and around the corner to the left) into Missoula.  No hotel reservations there, yet.  Depends on how the weather and winds are playing.

With live weather in the plane (ADS-B in) it’s very much like playing a video game, except no do-overs.

After that, about the time you’re reading Monday morning’s column, we will skedaddle up to Mullan Pass, Idaho, and from there’s it’s all down hill to Spokane.

Tuesday morning, around 9 AM , or shortly thereafter, we will go wheels up out of Spokane and into Gig Harbor, the Tacoma Narrows airport where we have friends and Tacoma where we have kids and a grandchild to visit.

The return in a couple of weeks will be back more or less the same route, but only as far as Missoula.  From there, no telling.

We plan to hop up to Edmonton to visit Grady of the www.nostracodeus.com project as well as pop in on my older sister.  Elaine’s never seen West Edmonton Mall, either, so we will sample that.

Besides the obvious business/technology angle with Grady and the family chit-chat, there’s a theme hotel in Edmonton.

The www.fantasylandhotel.com site makes it look pretty cool (although not particularly fast loading).  It’s spendy, but since our whole house is a kind of fantasy land kind of place (each room is sort of like a movie set), this may (or may not) be worth checking out.  Spendy, but this is Canada, after all.

Crossing the border will be an experience, too.  No idea what to expect, except that I’ve studied up one side and down the other of how to file flight plans in and out and how to deal with the eAPIS passenger manifest deal. 

Getting charts for Canada is a whole other dissertation:  they don’t have conveniently updated vector charts like we pump wirelessly into the hi-ef GPS on the American side of the line.  Paper charts and a chart for air traffic control services…Canadian paper charts are $19-bucks a throw so we only ordered the three we need.

A fellow flyer/reader recommended Miles City on the way south for a great turn of the century hotel and steak hanging over the edge of the plate.  So I’m curious to find out if that’s either big cow or small plate.

Spendy?  Not really – this is one of our big outings of the year.

Still, it’s a few cents cheaper than a motor home.

Admittedly, sleeping in an airplane is no joy, if it comes to that.  Elaine would never stand for that.    But the other side is the mileage is 3-4 times better than a pusher.  And the travel time is less than half what a car is.  No speed traps.  Just weather traps, but you build in a weather day into most long trips.

Or week, as happened to us during the Monsoon Summer in the northeast a couple of years back. We looked like a couple of drown rats walking through Macy’s.  That much rain up there.

If the airplane so much as sputters on run-up this morning, I don’t have any qualms about shoving everything back in the car and going that way.  It’s marginally cheaper, but the butt time is a killer.  16 hours of flying or 44-hours of sitting….it’s not a hard choice for us.

There’s always a backup plan.  Over at www.flightaware.com you can follow N7912L to see our progress (or lack of it).

We will go out “heavy” this morning.  Before every flight, we do something called a “weight and balance” because the airplane has to be loaded, just so.

When we get up into the high country, we will ease back to something like 40-gallons of fuel per leg and we will be planning morning takeoffs because the plane has more lift when it’s cold out.

The pilot and passenger weights are on the scale this morning, loaded down.  For me, that means heavy street shoes, a flight bag, GPS, camera, GoPro (for our documentary on all this), binoculars, and a sandwich.  Elaine’s weight is her, clothed, and a purse that weighs 8 pounds.

The clothing part is only 32 pounds including the two lightweight rollarounds.  The computer and oxygen rig add 35 pounds, but we don’t technically need the O2 until 12,500 feet and we will be well under that.  Still, a couple of hits of O2 when coming down into a crowded airspace (Seattle, for instance) does clear out some of the mental cobwebs.

Slower rate of climb or mental acuity.  Pick one.

Preflight aspirin,  no DVT, thanks.

Compared to an RV, the airplane is tiny, but faster.  There are no speed limits, except under 250 knots below 10,000 feet.  The only was the ‘Crate will see 250 knots would be straight down and I don’t plan to have that happen.

Unlike RV parks, there’s no overnight charge at most airports.  The fuel bill is punishing enough.  Most of the trip the fuel will be around $4.50-$5.50 per gallon.  And despite adventure/romance in the books about a sleeping bag, under the wing, looking up at the stars?   Poppycock.  Elaine wants a hotel and I prefer something with a restaurant attached. With bar is better.  Slots?  I’ve landed in heaven.

I saw an ad on teevee  t’other day for a new diesel pusher RV for “just” $189,000.  We have probably $35k, including the upgrades and maybe another $10K of super maintenance updates to the old airplane.  And they hold their value OK, at least until the economy stalls.

We figure to sell it next year, but looking back on all the adventures (transcontinental wanderings) I have to say it really has been worth it.  Meandering south along the backside of the southern Cascades to Mt.

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This is a very special time of the month:  It’s when the government steps forward with its confessional that stops short of revealing much about what is really going on behind the curtain.

Remember, Ures truly has been telling you that when the low in gas prices passes, we will scream up on the cost of living side and the Fed will be forced to raise rates, September or October, I figure.  Because we are at 4.9% annualized cost inflation now, and I figure 6% or better annualized by the time we get to the September data that report be reported in October.

Hard for the Fed to keep up the low rate charade by then.  Back to point…

The Labor Department cost of living report is just out.  Read ‘em and weep:

“The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent in May on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.

Over the last 12 months, the all items index was unchanged before seasonal adjustment.

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Not often I will begin a column with a press release, but this morning is an exception as a very interesting press release ended up in my inbox this morning courtesy of a reader:

Earthquake and Volcano Threat for USA Increases
Monday, June 8, 2015 Press Release 3-2015 9:00 AM EDT

In a rare letter to Mr. Craig Fugate, the Administrator of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), the Space and Science Research Corporation (SSRC), has disclosed that we are about to enter a potentially catastrophic period of record earthquakes and volcanic eruptions throughout the United States.

The letter was signed by SSRC President, Mr. John Casey, and delivered to FEMA headquarters in Washington, D.C.

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Looked earlier this morning like the market would drop another 45, or so, at the open this morning. 

Part of that is because what had been a global loosening of money has now ended, at least for a while, and that means that the Fed Meeting that begins today (announcement tomorrow) will be filled with the usual selection of carefully chosen words, but nothing will change.

I like the use of words that imply superiority…these are often used in government monetary pronouncements of monetary policy worldwide.

“The Committee judged…” is one of my favorites.  Implied is that we should “all rise” to the bait.  A closely related one (“blah, blah, reviewed the evidence…”) also gets pulled out.

A third and fourth are “concluded” (as in that’s the end of it) and “determined.”

If you’re any good with Excel, you can build your own Fed Statement generator.  Use the Random Number function to generate a word picker, which is run against a data table where the Language of FedSpeak as been carefully compiled.

Then use test handling functions (like concatenate) to build the statement.

The Federal Reserve today announced no change in its rate policy.  The Committee (word_lookup_1) the data and (word_lookup_2) that in  keeping with our (ran dom_policy_cite_1) the best possible course would be no action at this time.

Going forward, the Committee will closely watch (worry_item_1) and (worry_item_2) for any indication of deviation from target rates.

It’s actually only slightly more complicated, but you get the idea.

Which leaves the average investor (me and you) trying to figure out what to make of it.   Marty Zweig famously advised “don’t Fight the Fed”  and since Interplanet Janet (IJ)  has been doing astronomical things with the money supply, we she speaks, we listen.

You don’t need a strategic trader’s mindset, under theory Z…just listen to the Fed.  If they say overprices, then sell and go to cash, or go short.  When IJ’S FedSpeak turns to “fairly priced” then it’s time to invest again on the long side.

It’s never THAT simple.  There are all kinds of billionaires running around trying to shave money from everyone’s take (except their own) and that means things like whipping up the War Machine and so forth. 

Then there’s the whole matter of trying to blow up Greece…someone’s got to make an example of what happens when you cross the bankster because the Irish sort of won, and the Icelanders did for sure,. so at some point, the banksters need to hand out a beat down to gain back their ill-deserved “respect.”

As for actual data?  Who needs it…this is a con game, after all…but if’n you do….

Housing Start Data

Just out from Census:

“The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development jointly announced the following new residential
construction statistics for May 2015:
BUILDING PERMITS
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in May were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,275,000.

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The sound of an old Southern Pine cracking, falling, and taking out several smaller trees as it fell got our attention Monday afternoon around 5:30.

The winds had piped up to gusts of 35, or so, and the old tree which was home to its own little ecosystem, just wasn’t up to the task.

Normally, we’d be inside in the sun room (which is shady in the afternoon) have a libation, or two.  But Monday found us outside, sweating, and putting in some additional flashing over the sun room/to/house joint.  A month back, a semi-tropical sideways rain had moistened a spot on the sun room ceiling to wall joint.  And we had found the culprit.

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Always been fascinated by lag time and hysteresis; both of which nibble at our human performance, whether we like it, or not.

To make the discussion simple, and easy to follow, there is an electrical-chemical system in the human body take takes about 100 milliseconds to make a one-way trip to the brain.  Since a millisecond is one 1,000th of a second, 10 each means the route up to the brain is about 1/10th of a second.

The brain which is a large switchboard of automatic  responses (in addition to processing live video from the optic nerve, electro-chemical analog audio from two discreets (ears), and an impossible number of pressure sensors) then turns around the input and often fires back a muscle order (the response) and so we see another 10 milliseconds to the muscles, such that normal human reactions are on the order of 200-300 milliseconds for most activity.

We run slower on Mondays, it’s understood.  At least till we hone up the reaction times (which tend to get sluggish overs the weekend) with some electro-chemical enhancement juice like caffeine.

Interestingly, however,  caffeine is not perfect, although two cups is often very useful.

For example, in an air ambulance attendant training manual I was reading this weekend, turns out that 5-cups of coffee (and the science types use 6-ounces which is a semi-standard “[cup]) you can increase the brains psychological altitude from sea level to about 2,500 feet.

In other words, oxygen uptake and the other “systems” in the body result in a psychological altitude which you run into when you’re boning up on hypoxia:

Everyone becomes hypoxic to some degree when exposed to decreased partial pressures of oxygen at altitude. Some factors beyond atmospheric pressure can cause some people to react as they would at altitude even when they are at sea level. These are what create a person’s physiologic altitude.

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