Housing Sags a Tiny Bit (Updated)

Hot of the Press Release:

New York, June 30, 2015 – S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for April 2015 show that home prices continued their rise across the country over the last 12 months.

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To Hellenic Hand Basket

No, this is not a Crash.

Yes, the market will open down.

Yes, Europe is looking Grim.

But some simple truths about Greece and the global economy may set your mind at rest.

1.  Greece is in a world of hurt.  Banking is limiting people’s withdrawals from the financial system to only a few Euros per day.

2.  The Greek problems have hit markets around the world, but presumably you’ve discounted the problem in your own accounts.

So, no, I don’t expect the Greeks breaking with the EU will hurt anyone in the US except those chasing yields with high bond promises/lies.  Greece will have to liquidate decades of free lunches, pretty much all at once.  That’ll be an owie.

Bond holders will scream bloody murder about how they need to be made whole.  But the truth – for the idiots at the helm who seem to have forgotten basic accounting – is that interest has two components:  rent of money which is basically the borrowing cost and risk of default which the bondies (who have come to believe they are deities) can’t seem to remember how that works.

Bondies argue everyone else should buy their free lunch.

As a sage reader posted in the overnight comments section:

People need to be reminded that the Greek shut down of the Banking and stock market is nothing new. The US did that in 1914 (shut down the stock market from August to December), and shut down ALL banking for a week with a bank holiday in March, 1933.Only a fool would believe it would never happen here again, or that everything is contained in Europe, or wherever.

Ah…reminders, is it?

Well here’s one to bear (or bull_)  in mind this morning:  Crashes don’t happen at the top.

Yeah, sounds idiotic to mention a little detail like this, but remember just a few trading sessions back, the NASDAQ was hitting new Post-2000 highs.

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Coping: Depression-proofing Your Family

(Tacoma, WA)  In theory, we are supposed to be “on vacation” up here in the PNW this week until a week from tomorrow.

But the reality is that there is no such thing anymore, at least for 80% of Americans.

The reason is that we have stretched the rubber band of economy so tight, that it takes either coupling with anything that walks in order to make enough money to live with some modicum of comfort, or there’s a need to master multiple job-holding, or start-up entrepreneurship.

Among our kids, we have one set that will be launching a well-schooled daycare facility,  Another has recently started working at a second job (in sales this time) and another will be looking for professional growth opportunities.  And my son?  He’s happily working two government jobs, assistant managing an apartment, and providing for emergency medical assistance at various public events. 70-hours a week allows him to save a lot to money toward whatever he will need to “buy right future.”

I hope you can see the pattern here:  All of the kids are being introduced by either economic necessity or Ures truly’s  cajoling, to the notion that the 40-hour workweek is terribly out of date.

The reality is – as I told you it would – is that the Mexification of America is well underway.

You see, in the real “best of times” one person working could provide for a livable wage.  Can’t do that, anymore.

While it would be nice to have a higher minimum wage (and $15-bucks is about the lowest number that makes sense) the facts of economics argue that will will not work because of one condition U.S.-style capitalism doesn’t do well with, namely:  Economic Depression.

No, we are not there yet.

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Our Future: Wahalaylias and Mind Maps

(Tacoma, WA)  A longer than usual report this weekend (don’t expect more than a brief update Wednesday) but more complete than most in that today we will not only embellish on our rather dismal outlook for the coming 10 year period, but we shall also share a few thinking tools and how we use them for analyzing complex situations.

And then we will get into the weird stuff – which after we work through a number of levels of analysis won’t seem all that weird, at all.

And that’s where we will discuss the Wahalaylia – a new kind of percussion device – that arrived as a dream while consorting with future spirits in a post EMP, post-DNA war world.

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Coping: The Howling Earth/ Ready to Rumble

(Tacoma, WA)  Say, here’s a scary one to ponder:  Mega quake coming’?

George,

This morning I was awaken by a loud, deep, rumble that I initially thought was thunder, but as it persisted and stayed a consistent rumble to the point that the windows started rattling I realized it was not thunder.  I then began to wonder what else could it be? A low flying jet was a possibility but I could not see anything in the sky. An earthquake?

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Markets: Nose Bleed or Serious Symptom?

(Tacoma, WA)  Over on this side of “fly-over “ country, we are drowning in decaf trying to figure out whether the market drop of 178 Wednesday was the financial equivalent of a head cold, or whether it’s the cancer (or made up money) come like a Banshee to get us.

On the head cold side of things, we can almost make out the ebb and flow of Greece in the background.

As of this morning, the Dow as set to regain 71 of that.

Part of what’s going on is the mess in Greece.  Right now there are talks going on trying to avoid a collapse.

As we’re talked about before, though, stiffing the internationalists is not a bad thing.  Iceland is still a great country…and all the greater for having kicked at least some of the banker spew out of their country.

We should have such IQs and gumption.  So should the Greeks, but maybe Angels Merkel will play Santa Klaus.

More than anything, yesterday smacked of currency moving and and bond whiners.

Geppetto Does Personal Income (and Expense)

It’s fairytale time over at the Bureau of Labor Statistics…

Personal income increased $79.0 billion, or 0.5 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $65.5 billion, or 0.5 percent, in May, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $105.9 billion, or 0.9 percent.

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Coping: True Local Time and Precision Thinking

(Tacoma, WA)  I have not been able to sleep much on this trip.  Reason being that we are in an unfamiliar time zone.  The publishing time for UrbanSurvival and Peoplenomics is the ungodly hour of 6 AM  this far west. 

I like to keep the time the same, because so many readers are on the East Coast.  Nevertheless, it brings me to one of my favorite rant points:  Why do we insist on fooling ourselves with time zones?

Every few years, the debate over Daylight Time makes the rounds, too.  But again, we are so stupid and so gullible, that we believe assigning a different number will somehow influence the Sun to operate differently.  It doesn’t.

Universal Coordinated Time (UTC) is how militaries operate.  That’s because it makes sense, and it’s one of the few things the military has gotten right.

If we were going to do time “right” there are only two solutions.  The simple (UTC) and the technologically precise.

On this last, I would suggest TLT, or true local time.

As a recovering sailor, I know how important it is to understand the Local Hour Angle (LHA) when working out the local problems with a sextant and H.O. 249 sight reduction tables.

The local hour angle is unique for every place on earth at a particular moment of sidereal time, which is to say, for a position of the Sun relative to the Earth.

Think of it like lining up a DirecTV dish.  The Satellites in geosynchronous orbit are neatly positioned relative to degrees east or west of the UTC line through Greenwich.  Which makes sense when you point a dish into the sky looking for, oh, Galaxy 3 at 97-degrees west.

All terribly consistent, don’t you see?

True Local Time has not been adopted yet, but since humankind is overcome with reductionism disease, and we fool ourselves into believing a lot of idiocy, I figure it’s only a matter of time (sorry) until someone builds the cell/GPS enabled True Local Time app.

The way this would work is pretty simple:  Anywhere you are on earth at 6:20 AM TLT (true local time) the Sun would be in the same place in the sky.

As things are now, the local arrival of Sunrise (or Sunset) is call over the place.  The way I figure, the sun should always crack the horizon  at 6:30 AM, so twice a year with true local time, you’d see the Sun’s upper limb (top of the sphere) peek out at 6:30:000.000 AM TLT.

It’s hard enough to optimize human behavior and things like our circadian rhythms that attempt to keep us all sane.

But here lately, wherever I look, the propensity of people to “do stupid” seems almost overwhelming.

Logically, there are only two ways to “do” time.  A correct local hour angle (sun at the same place in the sky for everyone at a given time (time being in true local time) or a completely externalized reference like UTC.

This isn’t the only area where human delusion shows through.

Another example is in how state (and other political) boundaries are built.  They don’t take population into account correctly.  And, just like the mish-mash of time zones, the mish-mash of political power based on population is another area of high delusion.

Let’s take California, for example.

When the lines were drawn on maps, there was no one there.  But now?  No only are there too many people (and did I mention not enough water) but they wield too much political power.

When the state had 5-million, or so, back in the dawn of time, there was something approaching political parity.  Now?  California has outsized everything.  Politically speaking, Arizona is a dwarf star in comparison.

Let me show you how political boundaries should be drawn, and I will use California, as an example.

When there were these 5-million people in the whole state, it would have “original” boundaries.

But as the population grew, the borders of Arizona, Nevada, and Oregon would be expanded.  This would be done to equalize population between the states.  It would “level the playing field” for all kinds of problems, including return to the states of a portion of Federal income tax.

Right now, when funds are divided up, we first have to do advanced mathematics in order to figure out who should get how much in the way of Free Lunch.

Under Ure’s State Flex Lines, all states would be created equal, at least in terms of human capital.

You see what has happened along the Mexico border?

If we were using Flex Boundaries, as the number of people in San Diego went UP, the borders around the city (city limits) would compress in.  So that Rancho Mirage, or wherever, would still have the same population power.

What we have seen happen so often is that city empire builders gobble up land as fast as they can because the more people they can shove under their political wing, the more workers and income (empire) they can accrue.

In terms of Congressional districts, picture a system where the power of both rural and urban would be equalized better:  When city pop went up, the districts would shrink effectively, so that the balance between common sense rural folks and runaway lunatics in big cities would be more balanced.

As is, we see that cities, congressional districts, and states run over policy land mines all the time because they are not held in check by flexible borders.

Hence, in terms of national political influence, the State of California would be expected to (at some level) support illegal immigration because it supports more money from the central government and justifies more power.

On the other hand, under my plan, the boundary with Arizona, over the years, would have moved from west of Phoenix, first down to Thermal and Palm Springs.  And then as illegals poured in and so forth, we should how have the Arizona border just east of Alhambra and Pasadena-Glendale.

What would happen is that Arizona’s influence would have kept pace.

What’s more, it would be a marvelous make-work to put people to work.  For example, thousands of people would be employed with the biannual adjustment to signs.  City Limits and state naming signs would all have to be changed.

On the other hand, the populations would always be similar.  Population of Arizona might swell to 40-million (or whatever) but the size of California would shrink.

States that have small political influence now, like New Mexico, would expand dramatically, and it would make more sense economically, since the calculations on dividing up budget spoils would be totally simplified.

Give each state 1/50th of the pie and that’s that.  And then (in the interest of stability) hand out government projects (like defense) on the same basis.

This may seem like a hollow whine, but without a radical rethink, California will quickly become a bi-lingual state (not that it isn’t already) and the tearing down of American by ending our common language will be well underway.

Just as political divisions should be drawn on maps so that populations are equal, at a country level, they should be drawn based on language.  Under this common sense approach, San Diego and San Antonio would have already been ceded to Mexico.

And then there’s the matter of how Russia’s move in the Crimea was somewhat harmonized with the languages spoken in Ukraine.

I suppose we shouldn’t get too worked up over the ill results that are happening.  But as I see it, after not enough local hour angle of sleep, many of our root problems as a country c an be traced back to making poor compromises of a political nature.

Absent some “hard line thinking” compromise just means too many cooks are ruining the stew.

One nation, divisible by language, divided by time zones, and victims of “flex money” can’t have a happy outcome.

As Ure sees it, the Constitution didn’t say we would teach ESL to whoever showed up.  Short-term programs to transition into Engrish?  Fine with me.  We are an inclusive country.  But language frames how we think (or don’t). 

We’ll soon have Yemeni as a Second Language.  The runaway do-gooders are determined to blow up the population of the US before they blow up the population of the US, if that makes any sense.  Along the way, look for terrible “brand confusion” to totally eff with your mind as everyone knew that previously YSL was Yves St. Laurent but soon come:  Yemeni as a Second Language.

Pending massive Syria Immigration will screw up IT Departments since they thing SSL means one thing, but it will soon be Syrian as a Second Language (SSL).

I’m not particularly sympathetic to global refugees, I suppose.  When global humanitarian efforts take place on a grand scale, what they really do is encourage future despots to “go for it” and it’s like do-overs for bad children.  They stop the whining now, but you end up with implacable spoiled brats.

And that’s how the world is looking…

It is, according to my clock, later than we think.  Unless we stand up for a little Ameri-Glue, we’re hosed.  And three key ingredients of the glue to rebind us are a single time zone, equalization of political entity size to reduce intergovernmental empiring, and, oh yeah, a common language.

Hard stuff, this logical hard-headed thinking.  But when we’re over-run with people who hate us, and who will crumple America as the melting pot, creating an incomprehensible potpourri of everything from languages to their own forms of law, to remembers this chat:  When we could still save the “glue that binds us”.

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Mapping the Next 10-Years

(Tacoma, WA)  After spending much of the past five days in a slightly depressurized space, with not much to do but spot the odd airplane here and there, and remembering to breath deeply at 8,500 feet, things just sort of started falling into place.  The future.

So this morning some reflections of a possible future – and one that has at least some circumstantial support.

But, before we get into this, we’ll have our usual dose of mid-week headlines and an update on our Trading Model, which continues to astound readers with its incredible accuracy predicting the market.

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Suckonomics: Durable? Durable, You Say?

(Spokane, WA)  Hardly robust would be a nice way of “narrating” the latest Durable Goods report out this morning:

New Orders
New orders for manufactured durable goods in May
decreased $4.1 billion or 1.8 percent to $228.9 billion,
the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This
decrease, down three of the last four months, followed a
1.5 percent April decrease.

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Coping: Nearly Thar; The Wahalaylia Appears

The weather was absolutely amazing. In fact, it was really spectacular flying over places like Wallace, ID and looking down at a picturesque town on a summer morning. Nestled mostly south of Interstate 90 and in a set of deep valleys, because that’s about all there is west of the Mullan Pass, ID navigation beacon.