Month: May 2015

Peoplenomics Cruise Details

6th seven-day cruise in the Caribbean didn’t make it to recipients, so this morning I’ve put together a page on the cruise and booking information. More for Subscribers ||| SUBSCRIBE NOW! ||| Subscriber Help Center

10-Years After: Some Personal Scoring

Ah, sorry to disappoint, but the topic this morning has nothing to do with the 19670’s Rock & Roll band by that name (Ten Years After video here).  With apologies to Alvin Lee.

Nevertheless, in terms of economics, I’d still “like to change the world” (which makes sense only if you lived the 70s) and to do so, it takes a certain ability to “be hard on self.”

So this morning, we roll back the time machine and go through some of the views proposed in 2005 and see how our track was doing back then and whether our calls then were really any good, or not.

Should be an interesting adventure…

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America’s Wet Spot

Say, bet’cha can’t guess what it is doing again here in East Texas this morning?

The National Weather Servicer has noticed, too:  Record rainfall for the month in Dallas and we should find out how Houston came out too, later on today….

But it’s not quite over yet:

“Strong to severe storms are expected to develop over the southern High Plains Friday with large hail and locally damaging wind gusts the main threats. Scattered thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and possibly hail are expected to develop ahead of a cold front from the Great Lakes southwestward across the mid Missouri Valley into the central Plains.”

Other than a cranky septic system, muddy roads, and crumby instrument flying weather, it hasn’t been too bad here in the Outback.  We’ve got more magnolia and gardenia blooms than we’ve ever seen before.

Other people haven’t been so lucky.

And if this is climate change, it’s not too bad.  I am taking up a collection to send Elaine and me to Brownifornia to put bird seed out.  Elaine’s bird feeding is what set this all off, I swear.

Former GOP House Speaker Indicted

Former House Speaking Dennis has been  indicted on corruption charges revolving around structuring of cash withdrawals to evade reporting requirements.

And yes, this case involves supposed payments of almost a million dollars to a female, perhaps from Hastert’s teaching days.  More details will emerge over time.

But there are two things in play here.  First is the nature of this is highly political, since payments to women are (in Washington….you kidding?) not exactly unusual.  But the other thing to keep an eye on is whether Hastert actually broke the law.

As we have noted many times, there is a tendency for federal officials to take laws on the books today (very hard laws on structuring of cash transactions and using “structuring” to avoid detection and reporting) and applying them retroactively.

Of course, the lying to the FBI part?  Just plain dumb on Hastert’s part, as I see it..

I don’t know how many times I have mentioned this, but in many cases, a defendant *(in this case Hastert) gets into trouble because they speak with authorities.

Here’s the classic YouTube lecture on point, in case you missed it…

I can’t say for sure, but I’m just guessing that the former GOP House speaker that wishes he’d spent a little more time on YT.

Could the case have been made without him opening his mouth?  Nickel side bets are now open.

Restudy:  Flood, Dresher, & Tucker’s work on prisoner’s dilemma…d’oh!  Reread Nash.

Economic Ball of Confusion

(Go ahead, click the headline for the music track from the Temptations…)

So here’s the point of confusion is this:  The economy like contracted in the first quarter, but the fundamentals are strong.

We’ve been watching this a lot more closely over on the Peoplenomics™ side of the house, but the long and short of it is that a) the US is in deflation and b) we are papering it over by simply printing up gobs and oodles of money so no one notices.

With the Federal Reserve’s money printing data out, we see how shoveling 8.1% more M1 into the economy over the past year – which in normal times would light off a bonfire of inflation  – has been unable to move the Treasury notes far from the 2% level.  In fact, the TNX (10 year) closed yesterday at 2.13% roughly.

So, what’s going on?

Well, I think the dynamic can be thought of this way:  We have four percent deflation around.  And we suspect that because the Money supply is up 8.1 percent, and we back out the interest rate on bonds, which says 6.1% inflation.  But then you back out organic growth of the economy, maybe another 2 1/2% and you come up with about 4% deflation.

In normal times, that would result in business failures and all sorts of sand in the economic gearbox, but since the Fed is opening the back door and shoveling out grease (in the form of free money) wee haven’t had to pay the price.

The danger is that the economy is now in a new kind of balancing point, and all the doom and gloomers (who have been spectacularly wrong) will continue to be wrong until we get the final blow off which should occur (this is only a guess) in 2016.

So in the meantime, economic distortion is the order of the day.  The market will open down this morning, but the market isn’t sure what to make of it either.

And while we see an ascending terminal wedge, which should result in a 5-10% downside move, there is enough distortion in the system that there’s no telling how it will all impact traditional economic measu405.6frements and forecasts. 

On the other hand, if we are indeed playing the parallel to the 1921 to 1929 period, then this is late 1927 and the bulk of the blow off top is yet to come and that could be a doozy.

Then, when Hillary Clinton buys the White House in 2016, she will fulfill a historical rhyme of the Second Roosevelt (being the second Clinton) but with the twist that she will be the Herbert Hover bag-holder when it all falls down.

At least, that’s one construct present in Big Data of all this stuff.

BEA Data Confirms

You can see how this distortion is working out in the new Gross Domestic Product report just released here in the past few minutes:

Real gross domestic product — the value of the production of goods and services in the United States, adjusted for price changes — decreased at an annual rate of 0.7 percent in the first quarter of 2015, according to the “second” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 2.2 percent.

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Coping: With the Tri-Level Checklist Life

For the next three days, I don’t have to do anything.

Or, more correctly, I will be doing a zillion things – a sort of “George-like impression of a Chinese Great Leap Forward” and it’s all made possible by what I call the tri-level checklist approach.

Let’s start at the beginning, though.

First thing to mention is that checklists are invaluable.  We use them in flying all the time.  There’s a pre-flight checklist, a pre-start checklist, a run-up checklist (CIGARS – controls, instruments, gas, attitude set, run-up and check the mags and carb heat, and a safety check), a take-off checklist, a cursing cruising check-list, a descent checklist, and a landing set-up checklist.

Oh…and followed by the shut-down check list.

Boring flying stuff?  No.  While I suppose every has the idea that pilots (and nuclear materials workers and HAZMAT personnel) use checklists, there are very few people that run around with a dog-eared notepad in their shirt pocket like I do when peak performance is desired.

Checklists are also one of the most obvious – yet under-appreciated – parts of being a high performance executive.  I’m not saying it is impossible to succeed without a checklist.  There are always exceptions to every rule.

But if your life begins to get even the least bit complicated, there will be a time and place that you will skip the check list and pay the price.

When flying, mistakes from the use of checklists range from a mild inconvenience (like an unplanned fuel stop) to disastrous:  Forgot to top off (or measure) the fuel and ran out of gas.  Something which (*rather amazingly) accounts for something like 80% of small airplane accidents.

Pilots – like most folks – believe they can ‘work the problem in their head” and yet, even when you’re a really good, safety conscious pilot, if you don’t use a checklist, you may notice after a half hour at cruise at say 6-thousand 500 feet, that you left the engine boost pump on.

No harm, no foul, except that it’s a mistake and mistakes can what a person?

Successful people, too, use checklists.

The effective executive knows each of the major points that must be covered in a sales presentation in order to make a sale, for example.  Leave one of the points out, and your odds of making a sale drop significantly.

This is also why (even though it is mind-numbing work) why telemarketing outfits almost universally keep people “on a script” when talking to people.  It makes sure that none of the points are missed.

When you are “growing the business” there’s nothing like building up the “secret sauce” collection of checklists that ensure you cover everything the customer wants – and by doing this consistently, your batting average (in whatever field) remains exceptionally high.

When the batting average is high, there’s more word of mouth and the business grows.

But despite their provable benefit, most people don’t use a checklist – for reasons that may range from thinking there are too smart to need one, to not being willing to use a “paper brain” to help insure success.

Since I did most of the work on this weekend’s Peoplenomics™ report on Thursday, today will be what my buddy Gaye (at www.backdoorsurvival.com) and I have over the years come to call a “M.S.H. Day”  (As in “make sh*t happen day.)

The first level of the list ( Master) is a list of the important things to be accomplished for the day.

On today’s Master List are a number of projects that I need to get knocked off.

Let’s say it includes:

    • Airplane maintenance projects
    • Office work for client
    • Office work for Peoplenomics
    • Yard Project
    • Supplies for Saturday project
    • Peoplenomics chart prep.

    OK, simple enough – and short – which a good, focused Master List should be.a  Just a word of three.

    Under each of these projects is a “details” list where the specific actions take place.  So under the airplane maintenance projects, the details list for that include:

      • Blow out hangar (last of June bugs)
      • Check tire pressures
      • Add AvBlend to oil (*fresh oil change just done at annual)
      • Paint a small spot on cowling
      • Clear-coat the new prop spinner
      • Unmask nose gear, apply guard covering
      • Vacuum interior carpets and Lysol
      • Wash wing-walk (antiskid near door)
      • Spray spider killer on black widow’s webs

      As you can see, the work order has been penciled out in the details list.  Cleaning out the dirt and dust and then wheeling the plane outside makes sense before painting.  And the last project is where a few shots of black widow spray go on and then I close the door and go home to the next list.

      The third level of the list is the Time and Materials list.

      This drops down from each of those tasks I will get done today.

        • Leaf blower  (10 min)
        • Air compressor, tire gauge, screwdriver (7 min)
        • AvBlend, oil funnel, rag  (3 min)
        • Paint, masking tape, masking paper, Scrub-it  (7 min)
        • Clear-coat spray…(8 min)

        As you can see, in this time and materials part, you go through every step of what you will be touching to get a certain task done and next thing you know (since travel time is always the same) I can tell you I should be returning phone calls, and such, back in the office by 11:30 AM. 

        Or, if the weather doesn’t improve, I can flip projects on the master list to move things around.

        I don’t go into useless levels of detail – usually single words, except for the materials.

        But the nice thing about checklists is they allow a person to offload a whole bunch of what would otherwise be stress inducers, put them on paper, and then simply execute what’s on the checklist and any idiot can  do that.

        Ure’s truly being a prime example of one of them.

        But if you want to get the most done, in the shortest time without errors, there is only one thing that works – and that’s a checklist. 

        The 10-minutes a day, or so, that it takes will keep you marvelously on task and you’ll become amazed at how much you can actually accomplish.

        The Master List and the Details List are what get rolled into work manuals like the typical Policy and Procedure Manuals that make it possible for companies to plug and play employees.

        And then the detail level lets business process engineering types (ahem…) take the processes, add checklists (as in edit lists) and turn everything into a highly functional business flow software system to eliminate as many…oh let’s not go there….

        About that Internet Outage

        Turns out, says my hosting service, that UrbanSurvival had two service outages on Thursday.  Both related to a hypervisor failure.

        What’s a hypervisor?  (You apparently don’t build a lot of virtual machine servers…).  the answer is over here.

        hypervisor or virtual machine monitor (VMM) is a piece of computer software, firmware or hardware that creates and runs virtual machines.

        A computer on which a hypervisor is running one or more virtual machines is defined as a host machine.

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        Where is Our “Sell in May?”

        Confession time.  I bought long in the stock market yesterday.  And even though the market is set to open 50 points lower and all the technical signs in the world point to a lower market in coming weeks, I have weaned myself of wild-eyed options trading and am now doing a dividend play.

        Why?

        Well, for one thing, if you look at the 10-year Treasury chart, there’s an a-b-c counter trend rally that could run out of steam any minute.  Lower interest rates would chill prospects of a Fed rate hike.  Stocks paying dividends will glisten.

        When rates return to the downside, the stock market could go down, but I think stocks that are paying pretty good dividends, have unassailable market positions, and dominance in their sector may still be a good deal.

        As you also might remember, I continue to look at the 1921-1929 charts and see that while there may be the risk of a decline to the 1,740 S&P level, there is also a strong historical rhyme that suggests the market could be pressing S&P 3,000 in 2016 and that would be where the blow-off top rhyme with the 1920s could wind up.

        This is NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE – just saying that although our trading model may scoot down to the sell line, unless war breaks out (sooner than later) there is still a statistically significant chance that we could rally on for the balance of the year and well into next.

        Consider the global picture here, for a minute:  Everyone is “making up money” and pretending like it’s real.  And – it is….at least insofar as people believing the fairytale is concerned.  Economic growth is likely to be strong, at least on paper, because there is so much money sloshing around the system.

        The Fed can read history as well as anyone, and printing so much money (and giving as much zero interest rate bailouts through the back door to banks and such) can only go on so long.  But if they don’t print fast enough to keep the wider public recognition of deflation from sinking in, they ultimate deflationary collapse will be upon us.

        On the other hand, if they keep stepping on the financial gas too long, then we get into a hyperinflationary blow-off a-la the Weimar Republic.  Except the reparations would be going to China which doesn’t plan to be stiffed on those bonds we have been selling them to make all this work.

        So even if the market drops a couple of hundred this week, it would be roughly in line with the end of month beat-down in the price of gold.  In the longer term, I’m expecting a huge blow-off top to come, then I will load up on shorts, and when those pay off, then we will flip back into equities at prices that might be as low as 10-cents on the dollar.

        In the meantime, I think it’s possible that the S&P could pull back to the 2,040 range in coming weeks, but with so much money sloshing, it has to go somewhere looking for more than gambling returns.

        But we shall see. 

        However, when we do get the blow off next year, my lone gold coin and the lone silver coin will go down the road,. as gold and silver might pop to the $2,500 and $75 levels when the Big Inflation Scare of 2016 comes along and the equities bubble as one of the few things left that can be leveraged and won’t leave you homeless.

        So Ures truly is nibbling now and big names and familiar brands – like present day real estate – look really cheap.  The dividend paid by my pick is a kind of insurance policy.  And long term capital gains are a much smaller bite than short-term.

        Stupid Distractions – Soccer To Yah

        Who gives a crap about the soccer corruption case?  Mass media is selling us crap instead about getting into real news about who’s doing who and who’s doing us.

        Are you a fish?  If you read more than a single headline and first paragraph on this, the hook of mind control is set.  You is “on the line” suckah.

        Stay in the game, please.  This is a no-matter distraction like that god-awful South African murder trial a while back.  Useless, brain-numbing sh*t.  WTFU.

        Weather Attack On Texas Continues

        With video over at CNN.

        I could take a picture of a cranky septic system here, if you’d like….

        Ukraine Attack by Russia?

        While NATO continues piling arms into Ukraine, here’s a story that wonders whether Russia will be about to launch an invasion.  Though, I don’t expect it until the 30th.

        And then, only if you believe the mystical rabbi who got the World Trade Center and Gulf War right…still, we never discount views…

        Which Gets Us to China

        Absent a compelling reason to buy anything from America – despite the traitorous secret Trade Bill (never seen anything so crooked as a Secret Law on trade or the sell-out of Mitch McConnell of small transparent government principles) – we still have the China Problem on the desk.

        The simple matter is the USA owes more money than its gross domestic product, which makes us more or less technically bankrupt.  (It will be a huge deal when rates begin to rise.)

        So who can we use to prod China are our behest?  Warhammer has that angle:

        George,

        Classic ‘proxy’ competition is officially on the menu in the S. China Sea.

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        Coping: Liberty Dollar Post-Mortem

        Got an interesting email overnight from the U.S. Department of Justice related to the Liberty Dollar case.

        You main remember Bernard Von NotHaus was convicted by the federal government for offering a solid (non-paper) coin. 

        Near as I could figure, in following the case for a while, was that where the Liberty Dollar round got into trouble was the use of the word Dollar. 

        As you know, the term Dollar does not show up in the US Patent and Trademark database as a term trademarked by the US Government (which is a corporation nowadays, but that’s a long story that will roll us off into the weeds).  There is a DOLLAR (all caps) which is a driving school or course, or some-such.

        Nevertheless, the government got its conviction of Bernard Von NotHaus and he was eventually sentenced to six months of confinement to his home and three years of probation. 

        End of story?

        Well, not quite.

        The DOJ email deals with the final consent order and disposal of the (alleged) counterfeiting equipment.  Which includes, amongst other things:

        Superseding Bill of Indictment, the following (with evidence identifications) property:
        — A-004 Die – 1oz. Liberty Head 2007
        — A-006 Die – 1oz.

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        Is the Internet Wrecking Infrastructure?

        We consider (between the rain and power blinks here in Texas) how soon we start seeing some real declines in things like hotel, rental cars, and travel as business is moving more and more to video conferencing in lieu of travel?

        And, we take a look at what our Trading Model is doing in the wake of the sell-off yesterday that closed the S&P below short-term support.

        So grab the coffee….here comes a data dump…

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        Courts Save the Border – Momentarily

        We have to interrupt what would otherwise be a day of research and office work to congratulate the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals which has upheld a Texas Federal Court which says the Obama administration can’t just unilaterally make up its own set of rules (as opposed to laws passed by Congress and duly funded) to essentially tear down the border.  The FedGov wanted to implement immediately which was challenged by:

        STATE OF TEXAS; STATE OF ALABAMA; STATE OF GEORGIA;
        STATE OF IDAHO; STATE OF INDIANA; STATE OF KANSAS;
        STATE OF LOUISIANA; STATE OF MONTANA; STATE OF NEBRASKA;
        STATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA; STATE OF SOUTH DAKOTA;
        STATE OF UTAH; STATE OF WEST VIRGINIA; STATE OF WISCONSIN;
        PAUL R. LEPAGE, Governor, State of Maine;
        PATRICK L. MCCRORY, Governor, State of North Carolina;
        C.

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        Housing’s Slow Comeback (Updated)

        As you know, I’ve been expecting something to come along that would spur the markets to new highs in coming months and may be able to hold the upward track into our projected 2016 blow-off top.

        This morning, the odds that inflation in the Housing Sector could lead the way just went up a notch:  Good supply, incredibly low rates, the prospect of higher rates to come – and rising rents, what’s not to love about home ownership?

        New York, May 26, 2015 – S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for March 2015 show that home prices continued their rise across the country over the last 12 months.

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        Coping: With Subtle Effects, Body Electricity

        I mentioned in the Monday report that we have begun to see some very modest results from our grounded half-sheet experiment.

        As you’ll remember, we picked up the Earthing Half Sheet Kit  ($140) not on the expectation of making huge headway on personal health (we’re still healthy as horses anyway), but to see if it would help with the minor aches and pains that come from being on the wrong side of 66 and tending our own 30-acres in the Outback of East Texas.

        As mentioned, Elaine is feeling some of the effects of the experiment (and is pleased with the results, subtle though they are) and our experiments will continue.

        The one point of departure I have with the proponents of the grounded sheets is this idea that you can use the ground that is build into house wiring to achieve the effect.  This is one of those “sort of” answers…

        To be sure, this is what we are using right now, grounding to an outlet ground,  and yes, there seems to be something there, but I have been stymied by “the Boss” who doesn’t want me to put in a “real deal” grounding system.

        “I don’t want a hole put through the wall into the house…” she explained, as her foot came down on Mr. Wizard’s latest flash.  “We have enough bugs around here, already!”

        Try though I did, she wasn’t buying my plan:  I picked up some copper threated rod (3/8” diameter) and was going to drill a hole though the wall, apply a good coat of caulking on both sides, then some copper washers and finally double nuts.  I wasn’t going to chainsaw the hole…figuring a 3/8ths in drive would work fine…I have some that are long shaft, so a single pass would do it. Easy, right?

        No sale.

        My back-up plan today?  I’ll be suggesting that we open the window a 16th of an inch, put the short grounding rod  (comes with the kit although it’s only about 12 long, or so” and put tape on the window to keep the (damn) bugs out.  Not sure how that will fly, but I’ll keep you posted.  The ground is total saturated, so even a foot of ground stake would be fine.

        My reason for being suspicious of grounding to house wiring is very simple.  A.C.

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        Coping: With a [Financial] Holiday & Tex-Wx

        There’s not much point of writing a column at 5 AM on a holiday Monday.  Except for something to do while a bowl of chili warms slowly and I get a chance to wander out to the range gauge.

        As of this morning, Tyler, Texas, up the road a short piece from us, was reporting 30.24 inches of rain.  To give you an idea of how much rain that is, we’re on track to dump in 74-inches of rain.

        I was and to get the mower out and whack down the lawn, but there has been so much rain come down that the septic system is getting cranky (again) and there are places in the lawn where the grass is yellowing from over-watering!

        Even Dallas is up to 26.12 inches – which would track out 63-inches if it keeps up. 

        This is a story I’ve been whining about for a couple of months now.  But our news judgment wasn’t off:  The national mainstream has discovered our rain and flooding which extends from here north into Oklahoma and next-door Misery. 

        (*The next-door state used to be spelled Missouri but we changed it here as part of our tourism-marketing effects centered around Misery Loves Company…which was a post-Joplin gift.  Interestingly, we haven’t received the expected kudos from the state yet, but patience is our long suit.)

        The  State of Brown’s California has measured 2.55-inches of rain year to date at LAX.  It may interest you to know that the barren wasteland on the far side of Century Blvd is tracking for an annual rainfall rate of just a shade over 6-inches.  (Hmmm…a familiar number…)

        Boeing Field in Seattle remains stuck with 13.09-inches for the year.

        In NorCal, Lake Shasta has already been drawn down to 54% of capacity, and we aren’t even into June yet.  Perhaps instead of jet skis, the marinas could turn it into an ATV course?

        Trinity Lake is down even more:  46% of capacity.

        Eureka, California scores big with 8.55” year to date.

        Sacramentia (sic) has collected 4.96 inches (one inch per month) but the odds of rainfall in summer are pretty slip.  Ergo, we’re thinking the desert will run from Sacramentia down to Ciudad Diego, or so.  Sacramentia is what aging California has come down with.  The main symptom is residents forget how money operates.  The early on-set is forgetting the notion of small government…

        What I call North San Ysidro is another recipient of our marketing assistance: Formerly San Diego, then Tia Diego, it’s now Ciudad Diego since the Obamanizers may have scammed their way through law school spouting socialism, but they mustn’t have done well in Cartography.  Since I had to wait 66 years for Social Security why shouldn’t….oh, don’t get me started.

        It has been about two years now since we began penciling out what the Great Drought Migration for Brownifornia would look like.

        Here’s a list of 10 reasons why Nestle should be kicked out of water bottling operations in the Southland.  But like the great drying period leading into the Great Depression, this one is just getting started.  Remember from the Book of Landry:  “What turns a recession into a Depression is Drought” so we’ll just count raindrops and the backed up septic as a kind of Zen Lesson.

        “And which Zen lesson might that be, Ure?”

        Just so Crasshopper (sic):

        There the story of an old farmer who had worked his crops for many years.

        One day his horse ran away.  Hearing the news, his neighbors came to visit. “Such bad luck,” they they told him sympathetically.

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        How to Turn Your Hobbies Into Cash

        We can evolve an approach that works with any hobby, but it takes a little thinking through the ‘How to get there part.” Not to worry, my friend…that’s what Peoplenomics is all about – the really important parts about money…

        Consumer Price Data: US In Deflation

        The Consumer Price report is just out from the Labor Department.  As always, there’s some good news and some bad in it.  The BAD is that on a 12 month basis the unadjusted 12-month numbers are down – two-tenths of one percent. 

        This leads fearful bureaucrats to quick, hurry up and seasonally adjust something, quick!  Of course, since April of 2014 was exactly the same season as April 2015, just adjustments smell to rational people (like us, though I’m not too sure about thee) to smell like an odiferous male cow pie.

        “The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.1 percent in April on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.

        Over the last 12 months, the all items index declined 0.2 percent before seasonal adjustment.

        The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in April and led to the slight increase in the seasonally adjusted all items index.

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