Month: February 2015

Coping: With the “Cruising Troll”

Time we had us a little coffee-side chat about going on cruise ships for vacation.

The occasion of this discussion is a fellow who left a comment (in our comments section) that went to the idea that the only reason people take cruises is so they can brag to their friends about how many cruises they have been on.

Nothing could be further from the truth.

I mention cruising because, for many people, it is a very cost-effective way of traveling. The traveling part is included, the meals are included, there is entertainment, nice exercise equipment, and a whole lot more.

I don’t know if the reader was practicing up to be a “troll” who lives under a post, but the suggestion that cruising is an ego-trip, demands some public discussion so that MY decision isn’t taken out of context as an erudite expression of self-interest.

Cruising is practical.

Let me do a little comparison with other popular “vacation” approaches and you’ll see what I mean.

RV

I have yet to do a recreational vehicle vacation.  To me, it’s just another driving trip but with some major differences:  The “car” is longer, requires much more attention to driving, sucks down a lot more gas, and in many places, you have to pay $30 (and up) to park it.

Say you drive 400 miles in a day.  And let’s say that the terrain is like Utah or Colorado:  You’re looking at 100-gallons of gas or diesel, so round off to $300 to be on the safe side.

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Is FAME a New Kind of Money?

Okay, the past month or so, we have been looking at the weird changes to what was once a fairly straightforward science called economics which is now being spun on his head by not only digital currencies but something even stranger: Fame.

This was covered a while back by PBS in one of their outstanding FrontLine reports dealing with Friends, Followers, and Fame. It was titled “Generation Like.”  But they didn’t roll deeply into the economic implications so we’ll do that this morning.

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Barrack O’Hoover’s Blow Off Continues

Futures are up 30, oil over $52.50…

Not to put too find a point on this being a replay of the Roaring Twenties, the end of which was overseen by president Hoover, but here we are with markets setting new highs and the future ahead looks…well…problematic is a polite term for it.

Just as the original Roaring Twenties ran from the end of the 1921 market break up through the September 3 peak in ‘29,  an astounding eight-year run, the current run should also end in about 8-9 years which means by this fall, but more likely next year’s fall, we should be seeing economic reality set in.

And there are other indicators, as well. But since this is a shortened work-week, here’s the picture I drew for Peoplenomics readers a couple of months back:

The key thing I look for are the ratios.  For example, we know that the run-up from 2009 to present has been a factor of (roughly) 2.72 times.

Now, let’s look at the chart above:  Where would 2.71 times the 1921 low have placed the Dow back when? 

The answer would be (63.9 x 2.72) =173. 78. 

Given that my chart here is a couple of months old, we can see we’re in  the period just ahead of what should be a screaming rally in stocks that could last another year, and maybe till the closing hours of the Obama presidency.

Then, we would slip into the soup of  Paul Krugman has described in his book titled The Great Unraveling: Losing Our Way in the New Century (Updated and Expanded).

Still, for now, it’s not exactly secret that our Trading Model has been mostly long since 2009 and keeping an eye on the longer-term rhymes is where we can find ancestral evidence of market bubbles going to such extremes:  From the 1921 break’s low, the Dow rallied to 5.96 times that value before breaking.

If we then look at 2009 and use a starting level of 6627 and apply this kind of wild blow-off excess, we could actually make a case for a Dow 39,500.

Yeah, sure, there is fear (and a lot of loathing) whipped up by the rabid right radio rhetoricians (RRRR) but the fact is that the economy doesn’t seem poised for collapse yet, this morning.

I’ll grant you, it’s not likely to play out so smoothly and predictably, but we’ll have some further comments on where smart money might be going in tomorrow’s Peoplenomics report.

In the meantime, Elaine and I are off on our cruise this coming Saturday, so don’t look for really long columns (though quite likely more interesting than usual).  But I wanted you to understand why we are taking time to “sail and smell the roses.”

The picture is not nearly so clear today, as it was in the 1930’s blow-off.  For one, the impact of inflation was pretty low.  In fact, according to the Minneapolis Fed inflation calculator, One Dollar in 1921 was buying about $1.05 worth of goods in 1929.

Using the 2009 low, we see that despite the deflationary picture in general (and given away by the ultra long-term view of the Treasury (^TNX) chart, we still have 10% inflation since 2009.  But whether that will be additive, or subtractive relative to the Dow 40,000 target becomes an interesting area for speculation which we’ll save for the subscriber side.

There’s also the coupling effect of the global economy…so a long discussion about whether we’re running on a clock (the time domain) to blow up, or whether it’s a set percentage increase (the dollar/value domain) should be covered on the subscriber side.

CAUTION:  Whenever I talk about upside potential, a downside reversal is almost always at hand.

Still, the holiday weekend is over…the world hasn’t ended, although the new generation’s Hitler analog ought to be working his way into power in a country where unemployment is high and nationalism is important, so keep a close eye on challengers to Putin/Medvedev.

Watching Brother Alexei

All of which wouldn’t be worth doing except we have a convenient country with high unemployment, strong nationalism, and frankly, a strong challenger who has already been through his Mein Kampf jail time in the person of Alexei Navalny.

You might remember he, and his brother, was boxed up by the Putanists because of politics and ultranational worries.  They seem to be able to read history, like we can.

At any rate, Navalny is back in custody, and with that, calls for another jail term.  But history argues that if Navalny is to be the ultranationalist analog, he will beat this rap and will quickly ascend into a position of strong challenger to Putin/Medvedev.

Or, I could be looking in the wrong place.

Muslims Taking Over France

There goes the Louvre off our tourist bucklist with video of how a Jewish journalist was spat on and called names walking the streets of France in clothing indicating his religion.

Meantime, Jews are being called on to return to their homeland is Israel and Billy Graham turns weather forecaster says there’s a storm coming with the latest ISIS beheadings.

See how easily played the liberals of France were?  Think there’s a lesson in there somewhere?

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Coping: With the Extreme Present

Not often does a book show up that seems curiously timed, but along came a copy of The Age of Earthquakes: A Guide to the Extreme Present in the mail the other day, so I gave it a read. While it’s a good book – and I’ll mention just a few highlights in a second – there’s something very uncomfortable about it that rings true. Too true. Especially so, since in recent weeks I have been working on the effects of “Compunism” – which is the take-over of life by ubiquitous computers.

Peace Breaks Out, Markets Closed

OK, not much of a peace, but in a world always two button presses away from the Dark Ages, it’s nice to know that the fighting in EUKraine seems to be observing the cease-fire. It’s only coincidental, I’m sure, but markets are rallying in Ure-Up, since our trading model over on the www.peoplenomics.com side of things has been more optimistic than a crack monkey for almost five years. So yes, give the crack monkeys their due.

Coping: With National “Screw the Little People” Day

Millions of American’s are under the wrong impression.

They believe today is Presidents Day and that’s why government offices and banks are closed down.

But the truth of the matter, at least in the states of Texas and Washington, is a little uglier…in fact so ugly that I’ve decided to refer to this as national “Screw the Little People” day.

Here’s how it works:

Suppose for a moment that you own a company that provides social services.  And, let’s further assume that your money is dispensed by a state agency, and is released on the first and 15th of each month.

Now, fast forward to this weekend.

The 15th happened to fall on Sunday.

Since today all banks are closed, guess what?  No money is being dispersed by states – or at least so the contractors tell their employees.

That means the money will move tomorrow (17th) and in order to ensure that the money is actually in their accounts to cover checks, some of the Little People (also known as “invisible people”) will not get paid until tomorrow or even Wednesday.

I assure you, the bureaucrats got paid in a timely manner.  Even most corporations, as sleazy as they might be in other policy areas (like buying legislation favorable to their own self-interests) likely paid people on schedule.

But the “Little People?”  Who cares…

So I’d like to begin this morning by thanking Presidents Washington and Lincoln for collectively providing several days of float to ill-managed private corporations that don’t keep a payroll’s worth of float in their bank accounts and then go cry poor to the little people.

Like the old saying goes:  Everyone is equal in America, exceptin’ some is more equal than others.

And those who believe slavery ended in Lincoln’s time missed that child support orders past age 18 are their own special kind of slavery and this other example (financial slavery/abuse) are still doing just fine and well.

Thanks a bunch.

An Exceptional Company

Not all companies treat their workers like doggie treats.

I was pleasantly surprised back in December to learn of one exceptional company here in Texas which actually walks-the-talk when comes to employee relations.

The WhatABurger here in Palestine closed down in December to be torn down and replaced with a brand new (presumably bigger and more efficient) store.

But you know what they did?  Paid all their full-time workers while the old building was raised and the new one is being built.

THAT, my friends, is a QUALITY COMPANY and it’s why Texans who like burgers will go out of their way to find a WhatABurger location.

They are also the only burger joint I’m aware of that will let you have your burger’s meat done without adding salt to it…So when I have the double meat, everything on it except the Jalapenos and extra dill pickle and ketchup, I convince myself I’m still watching my diet.

When they reopen?  I’ll be there in the first 48-hours.

Ure Doesn’t Get It

We’ve had several interesting comments (see the comments section of this site) on my remarks vis-à-vis the Post Parenting world.  I raised some questions about whether playing a video game with a child (like a first person shooter game) really constituted parenting.

Here’s one of the thoughtful replies to roll around since the non-invisible class has play-time today…

George,

Regarding your piece of Friday about the video game magazine and your musings; you’re but another of the baby-boomers (and older) who’ve missed out on something of a social entertainment revolution. This is a bit longish, but I think you’ll find it of interest.

FWIW, I too am a boomer, (b. 1962) but have also been working as a GameStop store manager for nearly 10 years now. I’ve noted over time that few above my age are much aware of, let alone into, video games, but most of following generations are. While I did enjoy one of the first games as a teen, Pong, I had a long hiatus in between. Because, like you, I grew up building things out of the scrap pile.

Treehouses, floating down the canals, playing outside, 4-H. Of course, that was back in the day of being able to play in empty lots, of which there were quite a few. This was before the dark age of liability lawsuits for kids that stubbed their toes on someone’s property, then a lawyer sued and someone lost their land.

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Compunism: How it’s Killing the Music Industry

It’s Valentine’s Day and we all love music, right? This week I’m going to take you on a short tour of our home recording studio and explain how it grew into what it is today.  Which has what to do with economics?  Talk about an industry rocked by changing technology!  Yee-gads!

I mean besides showing you a shopping list for a kick-but home project studio for under $500?

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Hide the Sausage Friday

Normally about this time of the month, we’d be looking for a consumer price report.

And certainly we would expect on the first day of business next week, right?

Well, no. 

Thanks to all those “productivity improvements” in government, we won’t get the data until February 26th this month. Used to be on the 15th like clockwork.

FEBRUARY 26TH?  WTF?  2-freaking days before month end?

Am I saying this is inexcusable BS?  Well now that you mention it…

With issues like a longshore strike floating around, current data (that might reveal price inflation) becomes incredibly important.

Someone (and not down at the worker-bee level) in the Labor Department needs to get on the stick and get the damn numbers out at mid-month (first business day after the 15th) otherwise it starts to look to Ure’s truly like “hide the sausage.”

If government really ran like a corporate entity, we would have the report on the second or third day after month-end.  Where there’s smoke…wait, I smell bull…  Let’s see if we can blame the government shutdown all the way to Eternity, shall we?  No point getting our national shit together and getting on the stick, is there?

Look:  In good management, you get the bad news as fast as possible so you can begin corrective action.  By postponing the data ad infinitum (blame holidays, shutdown, anything but getting the work done) the country can be hoodwinked into believing data 60-days old.

So when inflation comes screaming along real-time, there will be basically 60-days of “political float.”  I ain’t falling for it.  Neither should you.

Airline pilots don’t wait to hit the ground to see if they’re going to crash.  They don’t wait for a week after a crash to figure it out either:  They get data early on (stall warning indicator, anyone?) and then do something about it when there’s still airspeed, altitude, and ideas.

Key point:  Being a pilot requires a license.  Being in government?  Hahahaha…you’re kidding, right?

Markets Closed Monday

This should be a rip-snorter of a weekend (a bull fighting reference, not a drug term) with the stock and bond markets closed Monday.

The other economic indicator we follow on a nearly daily basis is the Baltic Dry Index although its hard to say whether it has dropped because of the lack of trade anticipated since America is sneaking up on being tapped out.  Whatever is driving it, the index has crashed below 2009 levels down another 13 points this morning to 540.  That’s half where it was. 

Could it be how cheap bunker C oil is for shipping?

Or, is it because the corporate/management goon squad has decided to lock out the Longshoremen.  Maybe it’s telling us the longshore strike will be long an ugly… Which gets us to…

Losing the Import Battle

Just out from the Bureau of Economic Analysis is this embarrassing trade report:

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that the goods and services deficit was $46.6 billion in December, up $6.8 billion from $39.8 billion in November, revised. December exports were $194.9 billion, down $1.5 billion from November.

December imports were $241.4 billion, up $5.3 billion from November. The December increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $6.9 billion to $66.0 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $0.1 billion to $19.5 billion.

For 2014, the goods and services deficit was $505.0 billion, up $28.7 billion or 6.0 percent from 2013.

Exports were $2,345.4 billion, up $65.2 billion or 2.9 percent. Imports were $2,850.5 billion, up $93.9 billion or 3.4 percent.

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Coping: With Post-Parented Life

Hmmm…not sure what to make of the latest little goody to be laid in our mailbox.

Elaine was a bit perplexed, too.

It was a copy of the latest GameInformer which was delivered by mistake to us.

Which kicked off one heck of an interesting conversation, since the intended recipient is a single dad who plays video games with his kids.

Great dad, too:  A couple of tours in the Sandbox (poppy fields areas) and working IT for a local outfit.

Still, it was cause to reflect for a moment  (or 10) on how parenting has changed.

“You know, dear, I can’t imagine my dad getting a book about video games.  People back in that generation were busy…you know…doing REAL work.  And when they did something with the kids, it was always something more…er…practical, I guess would be the word.”

I thought back on it:  My dad wasn’t much of a “toss the ball around” guy.  But I could name (and effectively use every tool in the shop before age 12.  I’d started shagging tools on weekend projects about age 7, or so.  By 12, I was looking at “easy A’s” to come in junior and senior high metal shop, wood shop, and gas engines shop.  I’d done it all before.  Couple of times, in fact.

They were easy (like everything else in school) and consequently, I managed to go through high school without having to read two books.  One was a history book – which I found fascinating and still read whenever I have time – while the other was the German book because after four years and reasonable grades in it (B’s) the language is still difficult.

Fortunately, none of my neighbors are German, so it’s a non-issue.

But the question remains:  What is parenting?

When I had time with my kids, I was showing them how to do this, how to do that.  And everything was put in a “When this happens to you…as it will…how will you fix it?”

To my way of thinking that is parenting.  Playing video games with kids?

I mean sure, especially in first person shooter games there are hints and tricks, but is that a durable good?

I’ve been very critical of common core type curriculum development because it doesn’t do a good job of preparing “whole persons” to come out the other side of it.

The “con a ship, cook a meal, perform surgery, build anything needed, forge a shoe for a horse…” kind of education.

And perhaps that is a sign of aging.

I’m sure my parents had no idea was single-sideband was being built in my basement bedroom when I was a kid.  And maybe today’s kids down being script-kiddies and writing PERL or PHP are the modern analog.

The the matter of the frontier still holds importance to me.  Especially because if the West keeps pressuring Russia hard enough, they will respond with EMP over the US, but legally out in space,; and we could be back into an agrarian society in a flash.

So that’s the matter of great concern.  Not that I can do anything about it…and I’ve done what I could to teach my kids about the basics and they’re into their 30’s now.

But it haunts me:  Are we bringing up a generation of kids (as in baby goats) that will not be able to fend for themselves if the lights ever go out? 

I’m not certain about this, but I wonder if back in America’s pioneering days whether knowing how to unlock the cheats in Zelda would have helped build the foundation we’ve been coasting on ever since?

Woo-Woo:  Second Sight or Projection?

Seems like the best dreams I have about future events come when I’ve wakened at my usual time, but then his the snooze button and go back to sleep for another hour.  Like this morning – which is why the column is less wordy than usual.

But I know it won’t matter because for so many people, this is a three day weekend.

Unless you’re in Louisiana…

A 3 day weekend ? You must not be living in the right place! It’s Mardi Gras in Lafayette, LA. Most people have a 4 or 5 day weekend.

I apologize…I missed that little detail.  With good weather, it’s tempting to pop down for a quick overnighter this weekend…

Back to point…

This morning after I went back to sleep, I “pre-experienced” a meeting that may take place on our cruise ship ride that begins a week from Saturday.

In this dream, Elaine is off doing a spa treatment, and I get talking to people who have come up with a new way of financing vehicle this and that’s, and what did I think about it?

Not much apparently, as I excused myself from the meeting and went wandering off around the ship, but this is the second cruise-related dream I’ve had.

In the first one (before the cruise was even proposed) I knew that there would be some kind of issue about being on a cruise and at our first stop, some people who got off to do shopping and shore excursions wouldn’t make it back on.

Another aspect of that dream?  I remember being on the second floor of a shop at one of the shopping ports…it was like a kind of balcony around the edges of one of the shops…but not on all sides… I want to say a couple of east-west balconies off the north and south walls.

There was also a prominent channel with islands on either side of it…which I didn’t bother thinking about too much, until after our friends announced the cruise plans and we decided to go along.

In that one, it was obvious:  When you get a dream of islands on either side of a channel going south on the cruise it should have hit me:  This was the Houston Ship Channel! 

But it didn’t because what was “islands” in the dream aren’t visible until you look at a nautical representation of what’s underway on either side of the ditch.

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Adventures in Retail Sales

We begin this morning, like all good middle manager corporate suck-ups (and Jerry McGuire) by asking government to “Show us the Money!”

So, presto, faster than you can say “I’d like the sausage and eggs, over easy, hash browns extra crispy, a side of ham, bagel with cream cheese instead of the toast, decaf coffee, side of ham, apple juice,  and a piece of pie for desert…make it ala mode with French Vanilla..I also have a peanut allergy and you did get that’s DECAF, right” here is what matters:

-0.8%

If your order takes a while, the detail level goes like this:

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for January, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $439.8 billion, a decrease of 0.8 percent (±0.5%) from the previous month, but up 3.3 percent (±0.9%) above January 2014.

Total sales for the November 2014 through January 2015 period were up 3.8 percent (±0.7%) from the same period a year ago. The November to December 2014 percent change was unrevised from -0.9 percent (±0.3%).
Retail trade sales were down 1.0 percent (±0.5%) from December 2014, but up 2.4 percent (±0.7%) above last year. Food services and drinking places
were up 11.3 percent (±3.5%) from January 2014 and auto and other motor vehicle dealers were up 10.7 percent (±3.0%) from last year. Gasoline
stations were down 23.5 percent (±1.6%) from the previous year.

And yes, we now have two quarters of back to back declines in retail and a third would be what?  A recession.  Oh, wait, that would be quarters of GDP and we can lie our way around that by making up stuff, but sales don’t lie….which is why we need a large population of economists.

And what is keeping America alive?  Presently nothing.  But last year?  Auto sales.  Behold:

Save the Economy!  Buy something (even if it’s some useless shit you don’t need)!

Meantime, if your extensive breakfast order STILL hasn’t arrived, we could mention the market futures are up, so that means no crash until at least two months out.

With the Baltic Dry Index out there circling the 2009 lows, down another 13 this morning to the 540 level, so lower than 2009 – we know that a combination of longshore talks and delayed shipments may mean more than anything else  that the Fed is seeking any reason it can find to argue that we’re not stuck in deflation.  LOL, hep me, hep me, brother.

Still, gold and silver are chilling.  Say, did you catch this one?

Peace is Bad for the Economy

While retail can’t be blamed for everything that happens, any leftovers can be shoveled onto the rap sheet of Vlad Putin.

The problem, which USA Today doesn’t put in such direct terms in their story here today, is that there is Big Money…come on winners… is War.  And Vlad just agreed to a ceasefire, so that’s off for Q1.  Means another QE in EU is ITB (in the bag).

Of course, we still have ISIS but when Putin in talking ceasefire and the president of Syria was unflappable in his BBC interview earlier this week, how is  Boston Dynamics (a subsidiary of Google) ever going to sell a million robot dog army to the Marines without a hot war to ramp up for?

That, I suspect is why the Spot video has gone viral since we pointed this all out to subscribers in our Wednesday Peoplenomics report:  Peace is bad.  See Spot run.

When running, Spot wants RPGs and silenced human-killers to be made battle ready.  As luck would have it, we will either find a war, or make one, so stand by for a robo-battle yet to come.

Who’d have thought:  Google’s going to become a kick-ass (or dog) defense stock! 

So with self driving cars, internet search, social, dogs of war (pardon the pun) it’s going to be the one ETF of the future.  How come no one is saying this but me?  And where are the anti-monopolists?

We broke up a perfectly good phone monopoly years back, so why not break up a group that has such a strong hold on the future?  Where’s judge Harold Green who presided over the AT&T breakup case when we need him?  (Trivia answer: dead.  Great guy.  We used to grow people like that in this country.)

Where at the pols who should be keeping the future random?  Answer:  Getting campaign contribs hand over fist from where?  (those who own future…)

US Department of Resume Tweaks

Say, looks like NBC seriously considered firing Brian Williams for inflating his Iraq experience, according to reports like this one.

And now, the Washington Post is looking into the educational background of Scott Walker, governor of Wisconsin and serious GOP 2016 hopeful.  I don’t recall the Post looking into the legal conduct of the Clintons prior to their running for offices or Beghazi, but my memory ain’t so good.  I’m getting old and cranky.

At any rate, where this all leads is to the Federal Election Commission trying to slime-ball through Internet controls (on the assumption people can’t figure out which side various media are on, so lets license are mandate reporting…) and after that?

Here’s the way if works:  Citizens United can buy elections.  Internet sites aren’t going to be allowed to, looks like.  Why?  The money goes to site operators, not the political mafia chieftains and their collections teams.  Morality ain’t in trouble – died long ago.  Obstacles to keep little guys with honest opinions and a hundred bucks to start a website is what this is about.

Well, I can see Fearless Leader taking up the cause and demanding a US Department of Resumes.  Oh, except that might lead to a closer look at people like Al Sharpton.  Damn upstart sites like Smoking gun, huh?

Sure, we can’t close the borders, but hey, we can expand the compunist agenda in other ways, can’t we? Faux participation – that’s the democracy for US.

Give me enough money and I can buy any policy you want. Two or three years for really controversial stuff.

Global Health Surveillance

Say, here’s another goody to consider…this from our Winnipeg news analyst:

Dear Mr. Ure,

One is reassured knowing that the WHO utilized a “dedicated internet search engine” for assistance with the ebola outbreak.

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Coping: With Presidents’ Day

Well, here we are, just a few days from what will be – for many – a three day weekend.

So nothing better than a little humor to set the mood, from reader D:

“Gotta love those grand-kids ..

I was eating breakfast with my  10-year-old Granddaughter and I asked her,

What day is Monday?”

Without skipping a beat she said, “It’s Presidents Day!”  ..

She’s smart, so I    asked her “What does Presidents Day mean?”  ..

I was waiting for something about Washington, Lincoln, Obama, Bush or Clinton, etc.

She replied,    “Presidents Day is when the President steps out of  the White House, And if he sees his shadow, we have another year of Bull Shit.”

You know, it hurts when hot coffee spurts out your nose.  “

(rim shot)

So who gets the day off and on?

The Federal Office of Management and Budget has the federal list over here – click on the backwards tabs up topside.

As for banks, the Chicago Fed has a list of banking holidays, over here.  Most of them make sense, except for Columbus Day which will fall on October 12th this year.  I mean, it’s not like Columbus discovered time deposits, nor (as the case builds) did he discover America.  Scandinavians and Chinese had documented the area’s existence ahead of his voyage. Which didn’t include the first installation of an ATM, either.

That didn’t happen until 1961 according to Wikipedia:

In the US patent record, Luther George Simjian has been credited with developing a “prior art device”.[5] Specifically his 132nd patent (US3079603) was first filed on 30 June 1960 (and granted 26 February 1963). The roll-out of this machine, called Bankograph, was delayed by a couple of years, due in part to Simjian’s Reflectone Electronics Inc.

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Compunism from 1700 to Present Implications

We’ve been talking about “Compunism” – the takeover of traditional human institutions by pernicious computing – for several weeks now.

In this morning’s report, we’ll trace the history from the 1700’s rise in the field of statistics to the latest headlines outing the voice recognition systems that are sending private conversations held in your own home, to off-site partners who are then doing what they please with your personal information.

But first, a few headlines and then our ChartPack – one of the more unorthodox ways of looking at markets to discern their future.

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Fireside Deflation Chat

The high risk time for the economy comes when a number of factors begin to all stack up on one side of the financial equation. The first indicator may be something like the 10-year Treasury hitting a new low and refusing to go lower. If you look at a one month chart of the CBOE 10-year US Treasury, it looks like that bottom might be in. Then the next thing that you’d expect to see begin to edge up a bit would be inflation as indicated by the price of oil. Well, crap, that too looks to be going up.