Month: September 2014

This is not a moot question to be asking.  First US forces are in Africa now.

Oh, sure, the epidemiologists have been writing up the propagation math and the RO is still too high and the response is just entering ramp-up, but to me the fascinating question which we raised a while back might be stated something like this:

“If the Black Plague were to show up today, how many deaths (distributed in what geographical manner) would be required for the disease to trigger a “kindling point” beyond which market collapse occurs as people flee for their lives and don’t want to be the “last ones out?”

I don’t believe humans have had to think in these terms, before.  About the closest example I could think of was the Italian Plague which was temporally near the blow-off Tulip[mania event in Holland in the 1630s?  From Wikipedia:

The Italian Plague of 1629–31 was a series of outbreaks of bubonic plague which occurred from 1629 through 1631 in northern Italy. This epidemic, often referred to as Great Plague of Milan, claimed the lives of approximately 280,000 people, with the cities of the Lombardy and Veneto regions experiencing particularly high death rates. This episode is considered one of the later outbreaks of the centuries-long pandemic of bubonic plague which began with the Black Death.

OK, Tulip mania doesn’t fit.  But the Kipper und Wipper of the 30-Years War most certainly does and it may hold some instruction on how counties handle their affairs when there’s a plague going on contemporaneously with major warfare.  Sound familiar?

Starting around 1621, city-states in the Holy Roman Empire (based in what plague-ridden country? –GU)  began to heavily debase currency in order to raise revenue for the Thirty Years’ War, as effective taxation did not exist.

The name refers to the use of tipping scales to identify not-yet-debased coins, which were then taken out of circulation, melted, mixed with baser metals such as lead, copper or tin, and re-issued. Often the states did not debase their own currency, but instead manufactured low-value imitations of coins from other territories and then spent them in yet other territories as far as possible from their own lands, hoping that the resulting damage would then occur to the economy of those other regions rather than their own.

Which really has a nice rhyme to it, since even now, we see how the Federal Reserve has increased the amount of money in circulation in the past year by 6.5% while the cost of living and the GDP are going up at nowhere near these rates.

And we’re in a marvelous stock bubble due in part to the cost of money being essentially zero for the big fund drivers.  So what’s not to love?

As my consigliore advised me Sunday:

The Washington Post Sunday said the CDC is now saying maybe 500,000 by end of January.  It shows up elsewhere, too.

If you roll my projections below forward from December it comes out to 495,000 at the end of January … which is 500,000+- as you round out the numbers.  Of course if that many are infected we will NOT be getting good numbers out of the HOT ZONE at all since people will be fleeing for their lives, NOT keeping statistics.

REMEMBER …. People at risk, even those already exposed WILL LIE LIE LIE  to get out of the HOT ZONE go to somewhere where they have a chance to get decent  medical care if they have been exposed, or to avoid being exposed at all …

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(Reno, NV)  Peoplenomics reports are always a joy to write – and unlike the UrbanSurvival columns, they have a serious-as-a-heart-attack angle to them because it’s where we get to nail down key aspects of the future and work out strategies for dealing with it.  This morning we put down four “corner posts”  that define our future.

This morning we offers two key insights:  One is a further discussion of Peak Oil, which as I’ve hinted in previous columns, and what’s really going on when you lift the covers of Ukraine, Syria, ISIS, Africa, and many other “hot spots” around the world.  If you remember our “thinking-framework” of the Manufacturer’s Resource Wars, there’s much to be relearned and  applied to this moment.

Beyond that, we assess the new revolution by the programmers from the 99% who are in the process of overturning the One Percent in a gloriously subtle way…and a way that will lead us in future weeks to redefine some investment criteria for stock screens and other investment vehicles.  Oh – and my buddy Rick Ackerman (of www.rickspicks.com ) lays out where gold could be going.  (If you’re not a subscriber, it’s similar to Robin Landry’s worst case, which is none too reassuring.  When smart guys with differing background begin to line up…)

So sit back, load the bean, and we’ll launch into “What It All Means...” written (somewhat appropriately) in our overnight suite upstairs from a Reno casino; where unlike markets or Washington pronouncements, we can at least see honest odds being posted.

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(Canyonville, OR)  The drive from Purdy, WA (a western outpost of Gig Harbor, an outpost of Tacoma that’s in turn an outpost of Seattle, that’s a subset of Washington State) down to our first night out on the long road back to Texas, was punctuated mostly by looking at how branded Americans are.

Take their vacation travel trailers, for example:  Elaine collected a bunch of names:

Hide Out

Polar Bear

Cougar

Koala

Toy Box

Big Foot…

And the list went on. 

As we were remarking on people’s propensity to self-brand (like we need to go Mark of the Beasting, right?)  along about Roseburg, OR. we saw a truly individualized brand.

Pulled by a classic Ford Econoline Van was a self-painted trailer which has been attacked by mad men with fluorescent paints.  It was actually done quite nicely.  But it was the message that was so cool:

Imagine Chillin

We loved it. 

Obviously (to us, anyway) the person pulling what was underlying it all, what looked like a 20-year old Shasta, had looked at some of the wildlife named rigs and come up with a far cooler message that conveyed their purpose in retreating to nature.

But it just goes to show you how deeply embedded this “urge to brand stuff” has become.

Far Beyond Trailers, too…

If it was only a matter of a compulsion to mark up trailers, that would be fine.  But it’s not.

Because Seattle has been somewhat successful in football, as of late, there are so many 12th Man flags flying on cars that it would make you think there’s been a military occupation of the region by the 12th Infantry, or some such.

Understand that it’s the little stuff that you don’t think about that embeds this branding tribalism in your head.

How many cars that passed us on the road carried advertisements for various car dealers, on them?  Virtually all of them.

Am I the only guy who (when buying a car) says “I will do my own license plate frame (plain, no wording) and don’t even think about putting some BS dealer badging on the back of my car!

If someone forks over $30-thousand (and more) to buy a car, they need to be thinking about all possible revenue streams to pay for that puppy.  And selling ad space to the dealer is one possible source of revenue.

“If you want your dealer decal on the back of my car, knock another $1,000 pretax off the price.  If you want to put one of your stickers on the factory paint job, you can buy a placement from $650 for that.

If you won’t strip off all the crap, I can buy a car anywhere and most people will take my money rather than lose a sale over free billboards…”

It’s a matter of being circumspect, I believe. 

It doesn’t stop at cars…there are alligators and taverns and heaven knows what else on clothing, too.  It just doesn’t stop.  I make an exception for Elaine’s Hooters T-shirt, so I can’t claim perfection.

Kids are jammed into the game from preschool and once they start packing a lunch, it will be in some rock and roll band’s lunch box.

Their shoes will have Abdias’ name, or a Nike checkmark on it.  But not Elaine, or me.  A Coach purse is a look for women and Johnson-Murphy loafers don’t require a stencil.  Jessica Simpson clothing is more a look than a logo, too, methinks.

But does it really mean anything what brand is on a pair of sweats, for crying out loud?

My distain doesn’t seem widespread.  But I think there are a lot of us who are 60-somethings who can see this thanks to car designer George Barris.  One of the hallmarks of his work was de-chromed, clean lines and no, the Bat Mobile didn’t have a dealer decal on it, at least last time I saw it, which was years ago. But then again, the Bat Man logo has come to life on its own – and on lunch boxes…

Next time you buy a product, look at the logo size in relation to the product.  Size of logo has mostly nothing to do with how an item performs.  What it really indicates in the level of mental and social-economic  acuity of the product owner, as much as anything else.

The one car that we admired yesterday (just outside of Portland) was a black 7-series Beamer that was devoid of advertising…and, we though, “Ah, a truly smart fellow…” which may have something to do with why he could afford a brand new 7-series.

Sign Posts Up Ahead

Elaine’s always looking at proximity of signs to one another.

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(Gig Harbor, WA)  As we head out for the return to the East Texas Outback – just 2,270 miles, or so, down the road, one of the discussion points will be “What’s ahead for the economy…and how do we model it?”

Take the Fed decision yesterday:  It was a foregone conclusion that there would be no rate hike and further, that the Fed will eventually talk itself into a problem.  There’s a very thin like between telling markets enough that they will react positively, to telling them too much and panicking people.

The EU seems to have done a reasonable job of market communication of late, by simply saying (in no uncertain terms) that “…we will do whatever it takes…” to keep their economy on an even keel.

The Fed, in trying to telegraph its (eventual someday) rate hike miles in advance so that there’s a smooth transition from holding bonds makes sense to holding equities makes sense, is in a terrible spot.

We’ll get into it more in Peoplenomics this weekend, but the short version is that computers are now spawning disruptive technologies to compete with the established business paradigm and that’s likely to blind-side traditional investment, in the same way autos and radio and mass advertising blinded the economy of the Roaring Twenties.

“So what does a flow-motion Fed Reaction mean?”

My friend Rick Ackerman (Rick’s Picks) told me once about a pattern he saw long ago with Fed announcements.    I haven’t talked to him for a few years, but the basic idea was that when an announcement is make, you get a Big Reaction move, then the commercials drive prices back, and then you get the larger move in the direction indicated immediately after announcement time.

So let’s look at what happened on Wednesday:  Come Fed announcement time, the market went into a brief but significant rally.  But toward the close things had backed off a good bit from the day’s highs.

So come the open this morning, or by the close today, we should see if the theory is still in play.  Although, in fairness, back in the day, it was usually on a much shorter time-scale.  The initial move might have been 10-minutes of manic move, then a pullback (or pull up) and then the move would resume, usually in the same session.

market patterns change over time, though.  And it’s possible that with the advent of more algorithmic trading, we may see some news-reaction scenarios like this one, stretch out more over time, as the behavior of asymmetry of expectation in the markets moves in new ways with computational trading.

I can share that my proprietary Peoplenomics Trading Model is up 311 points for the week, as of last night’s close, and it looks like this week will push us out to 21-weeks of bullishness while other indicators have been indecisive.  Not that it’s a sure-fire decision-making tool, but I’ll take any lighthouse in a storm over none at all, any day of the week.

Even Thursdays.

Dow futures were up 40 when I looked and the S&P looked to gain almost 7. So as much as I love to be short, the Trading Model has been a huge help; a kind of sanity support in truly insane global markets.  Gold is down a good bit, and we may be seeing the workout of Robin Landry’s long-term prediction of gold under $1,000 before this is all done. 

Spider gold share (GLD) was down one percent yesterday and closed at $117.54.  With the 52-week low at $114.46, a break lower than that could be ugly and set up a real gold panic.  If the big Elliott view is right (Robin’s a patient fellow, like me) then there really is a case for GLD to drop down to the $79-$82 range in the intermediate term.  Multiply times 10 and you can pencil out a gold price ballpark.  Gold was down $17 on the futures market – a buck and a half down maybe on GLD today…we’ll see.  Not investment advice, just talk about chums and a dart toss, yeah?

But, of course, I am not selling my lone gold coin, because things could reverse in a heartbeat.  And weith all the counterfeits out there?  Yucko.

And despite Max Keiser and other “true believers in crypto money’s fine sales efforts, Bitcoins have fallen back to $447 and there’s now an Elliott case for a further retreat there as well.  But, for that to happen the previous bottom in the $350 range would need to fail first.  Then the case for sub $100 Bitcoins comes along, but again, time and charts will tell.

Hard to find a winning horse at this-here race track, ain’t it?

Apple’s Elegant Engineering

I’m not going to take back everything I’d questioned about Apple’s decision to make a $400 watch that requires a phone, but iOS 8 has gotten an “atta-boy” from us for their elegant engineering which will keep everyone but the owners of one of their new smart phones from getting at personal data – including police.

There’s a good write up on it in the Washington Post this morning, but here’s where things get interesting:  The theoretical question goes something like this:

“If a phone is sold in America, and law enforcement/anti-terrorism wants to get at data (with a search warrant) should the make of the phone be required to put in a back door?”

Obviously, iOS 8 answers that by taking the tools out of even the company’s hands.  “We ain’t got access either, boyz…”  But the question ahead is whether the three-letter agencies will require an Apple “back door” because they might make a case that Apple security might facilitate money movement or planning by ISIS or whoever…

Damn difficult balancing act, to be sure.  A disruptive technology?  Maybe…

More after this…

              

Housing Starts: (1) Ea. Size Small

Turd:

Privately-owned housing starts in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 956,000. This is 14.4 percent (±7.9%) below the
revised July estimate of 1,117,000, but is 8.0 percent (±11.2%)* above the August 2013 rate of 885,000.
Single-family housing starts in August were at a rate of 643,000; this is 2.4 percent (±9.7%)* below the revised July figure of 659,000.
The August rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 304,000.

This oughta flush out a few bears.

Pick a War, Any War: I’ll Show You the Money

Do I have to do all the work around here?

OK, Ukraine then:  Russia seems pleased with the autonomy law for eastern Ukraine – so says the WSJ

Most of the Western world (outside the Washington and Brussels Cartels) think that Ukraine has been about what? Principles, right?  Freedom!  Uh-huh…you bet.

Wrong, bucko. 

It’s all about Peak Oil.  Ever hear (in the MSM) about the energy play that underlies all ths war-making posturing on both sides?  From a USGS report:

The Dnieper-Donets basin is almost entirely in Ukraine, and it is the principal producer of hydrocarbons in that country. A small southeastern part of the basin is in Russia. The basin is bounded by the Voronezh high of the Russian craton to the northeast and by the Ukrainian shield to the southwest. The basin is principally a Late Devonian rift that is overlain by a Carboniferous to Early Permian postrift sag. The Devonian rift structure extends northwestward into the Pripyat basin of Belarus; the two basins are separated by the Bragin-Loev uplift, which is a Devonian volcanic center.

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(Gig Harbor, WA)  As soon as this morning’s news portion of the column is done, we’ll be piling into the car to begin the long road back to Texas after being off the ranch for fully 5-weeks now.

Along the way, we’ve had a lot of fun…and from an economics research perspective, I’ve gained all kinds of new insights from talking to people ranging from restaurant wait-staff to  marijuana growers, to check-out clerks.

One of the key insights is into how the “App-italism” will, in coming years, be the “straw that broke the camel’s back” with regard to old-style capitalism.  That’s up this weekend in a Peoplenomics.com piece I call ‘Computational Communism.”  Or, “How modern Bolsheviks eat Apples.”

Life/paradigm-changing stuff and worth the trip in and of itself.

I’d like to thank Kelly (and Dan) for making our www.airbnb.com stay so comfortable.  When Kelly’s not building wedding cakes and such with her www.tortesntarts.com business, she’s rebuilding houses and all kinds of neat stuff.    Fine example of a high-energy PNW person who has skill, gumption, and hustle…

But enough about travels, now to the subject at hand:  How to get back to Texas:

I’ve been fascinated for as long as I can remember, with the four words Investment, Risk, Speculation, and Gambling.

Since we are “what we think” (more so than what we eat, cakes and tarts excepted), I think it’s important to have a firm grasp on the subtle differences in meaning between words.

One of the things that distinguishes a really sharp mind, from a rather dull one, is in how we use words.  The professions where this “word-use” stuff include law, engineering, and medicine.  Which have what in common?  Oh, maybe higher average incomes?  You see, precision in language is a precedent to precision in thinking.  The more precise the thinker, the more precise their language.

It’s true when comes to money, as well.

As Elaine’s got first turn at the wheel this morning (she’ll find out when she wakes up, lol!) I’ve got a bunch of thoughts rattling around in my head on point.

Investing:  This is the art of deploying money or some other asset with the expectation of a positive return, either in money or goods.

Risk:  Exposing one’s self to danger or possibility of loss.

Speculation: Investment with the hope of gain, but risk of loss.

Gambling: Taking [more] risky action with the hope of gain.

Our road back to Texas will be over what I call “Ure’s Casino Highway.” The idea is to state-hop from casino to casino.

Granted, we could take the direct route, and stay in OK hotels in the $100/night class, but the problem with many of these is they just aren’t very exciting.  Nothing to tickle the imagination or teach new things.

You simply go in, plunk down the credit card, go to room, get lousy to-go food, and pay $20-bucks for a movie that you know will be on Amazon streaming in 2-months for $2.99.

At a casino, on the other hand, there is always a variety of ‘stuff” to do.

For example, since we’re going to the Seven Feather’s resort tonight, in about the middle or Oregon, we will (for the same price as a conventional hotel) be able to chat with RVers – a fascinating sub-culture very much like live aboard sailors.  That doesn’t cost anything, except a “Hi, howdy, how you doing?”

Some casinos have golf courses which is a nice diversion if you have time, like walking, and aren’t too embarrassed by your swing.

Then there’s the better choice of food.  LOTs of choices at most casino-hotels.

And about that $20 (or maybe $40) that would otherwise have gone into movies?  There’s a fine assortment of potential ways to break even.

Which brings us around to what gambling is.

I know the statistics are poor, especially on things like slots,. but I’ve seen many a long-shot pay for a whole vacation.  But, beyond that, there’s the honing of one’s intuition that came come.  Elaine does pretty well on things like slots or machine poker when she waits to find a machine that “calls to her.”

Given a choice, Life is a lot more fun when there’s a definable element of risk to it.  To me, the tradeoff between a movie rental in a hotel or a stroll around a casino floor is a no-brainer.  Especially when daughter Allison is becoming something of a craps shooter.,..a game I sort of understand, but plan to understand a lot better by time a week from now rolls around.

My pet theory is that by becoming a better gambler, one can become a better investor.  Since, when comes to investing, I tend to “take my bets off the table early” – which has caused me to miss a fair number of big moves over the years.

On the flip side, gambling is different in that I tend to leave my bets ride too long, and as a result, don’t walk out when I’m ahead.

So you see how this is a personality-balancing process as much as anything.  Or, at least that’s what I tell myself when tomorrow, the odds are that we’ll b e down $40, but we’ll have more – and better – memories than some passing movie on the tube..

Drop by tomorrow and I’ll give you the results of tonight’s “personality-balancing” exercise.

After that, we’re off to the Peppermill in Reno..and from there, where else?  Probably the Texas Station (a smaller casino than the biggies on the strip) in Las Vegas.

Whether we have time for a stopover at our favorite place in Payson, AZ, is up in the air, but there are several gambling emporia in the Albuquerque area that have called to us over the years.

As we age, it becomes apparent that Life is a collection of memories.  And to our way of thinking, being an active player on the stage of life doesn’t involve ordering room service and over-priced movies. 

This position is subject to change, depending on tonight’s outcome. 

Geophysical Question/Project

Say, here’s a weird one for you:  Remember we had a small earthquake up here this week?  (4.0)?  Bothered my writing when I was working on Peoplenomics yesterday morning.

I thought I noticed that there was a minor change in cold water temperatures (~5-degrees warmer) after the quake (yesterday and again this morning).  Ours apartment/condo/home up here is on well water and not too far from the center of action.

Hmmm…I got to wondering:  Is there a possible method here to assess earthquake risk?  E.G. a change in ground temperature?

Turns out I’m not the only one asking this question.  Some Iranian earthquake researchers have been looking at this, too.  In 2010 they published a paper on it…

Abstract.

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(Gig Harbor, WA)  Say, not to be sounding like one of those doom-porn types, but some very serious thoughts this morning on how recent history and current events are shaping up need to be covered.

This won’t be a particularly long report.  Just important.

So we dispense with some of our usual flowery language and weak puns to get right to the heart of things after headlines and our Trading Model with charts…  Leading off with Fed Spotting (rate announcement due today) and Consumer Prices…

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The question du jour, though early, is a fascinating one:  Why are there persistent rumors, stories, and even pictures of massive boring machines floating around the Internet – all clustered around the notion of “secret bases?”

An email from our friend warhammer is on point:  What is it about EMP, nuclear threats, and such that drives government to turn mole and dig deeply?

George,
The data center highlighted in this article, Boyers, PA, is a short drive from my residence.
<http://www.computerworld.com/article/2606378/new-data-center-protects-against-solar-storms-and-nuclear-emps.html>

The article describes what is essentially a Faraday cage, which has been used for decades to shield electronic emissions from classified sources from getting ‘out’ to where prying ears can pick them up.  This one prevent EMP from getting ‘in.’
One key fact is left out of the article, which is that much of Boyers is already underground.

<http://www.bizjournals.com/pittsburgh/news/2014/01/23/inside-iron-mountains-underground.html?page=all>

Having 220′ of earth and rock above and copper shielding surrounding the data center area, nothing short of a direct asteroid hit, H-bomb attack or global flood will immobilize Boyers.

Astute observers might see a pattern emerging – Raven Rock (Site ‘R’) and other alternate U.S. Government facilities such as Cheyenne Mountain and Denver Int’l, both in CO, Boyers/Iron Mountain Corp., PA, Fort Greeley, AK, Fort Huachuca, AZ, China Lake, Naval Air Station, CA, Dulce Base, NM, Los Alamos, NM and “many, many more.  Why all the digging?  Is the U.S. Government merely preparing for the unthinkable or do they actually know something we don’t?

Don’t forget the Svalbard Global Seed Vault in Norway, the vegetation version of Noah’s Ark.

My humble opinion?  Valuable resources are not typically expended on the ‘unthinkable.’  Some plausible information must lay at the root of the subterranean real estate craze. 

Or is that “real estate crazy” that rational government leaders find it necessary to spend tremendous amounts of time and money preparing to survive.some type of destruction from above (whether natural, man made, or ‘other’).

A familiar saying states that if you want to find out the truth regarding any covert op, “follow the money.”  While classified programs can cover their expenses through congressional exemption, plotting the web of underground facilities across the nation (and the globe) can provide the arm chair researcher with many key pieces to a very mysterious puzzle.

Cheers,

Dulce base, in particular is a vexing one:  What’s out there?

A couple of years back, we heard about unidentified air traffic that moved at incredible speeds and (after leaving the Denver ATC track, was on course for Dulce’s vicinity before blipping off radar) and have wondered if all-night shift workers in New Mexico might have some interesting accounts.  Or, our friends with the castle up near “ground-zero” for cattle mutilations, west of Trinidad, Colorado.

One of these days, if you’re looking to do a real public service, a visit to the MUFON or other UFO reporting database might yield some interesting results if you plot the locations against population densities of sighting areas.

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(Gig Harbor, WA)  Hit the snooze button  Oh, sure, you think the markets are opening this morning and they may be – on paper – but with the Dow flopping between positive and flat-line, it’ll be like rigor tradeus until we get some data rolling in.  Not that we don’t have some suspicions…

My friend Roger Reynolds offered his email readers this gem:

Friday the dow and SNP both gave weekly broadening top sell signals. Since they had given opne before and the markets did not go down some folks might ignore the signals. IMO that is a mistake. WHY??? because they both gave similar signals at the 2007 top. Also, some other reasons—-Friday there were more new 52 week lows on the nyse than new highs. Raymond James brokerage says that to omit the dow and big cap stocks of nasdaq then the average stock in the russell 2000 is already down 23 percent from it’s high. In other words, the army is in retreat while the generals are fight the averages war.

There are two Fed-ly things this morning:  Empire State Manufacturing is just out:

“The September 2014 Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that business activity expanded at a robust pace for New York manufacturers. The headline general business conditions index rose thirteen points to 27.5, a multiyear high. The new orders index moved up three points to 16.9, and the shipments index advanced two points to 27.1.

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What happens next in markets may be a huge reversal to the downside beginning this week, or maybe next week after options come off late this week.  And I suspect this why?

There has been a “Great Falling.” 

A what?  Allow me to elucidate:

The Universe talks to us…often in ways that are too subtle for our busy minds to hear, but that’s mostly because we have such busy schedules and we’re texting so much drivel that we miss the signs when they are thrown in our faces.

From experience, though, sigils and signs are a lot more common than people realize.

No, I’m not talking about when you get a flash of intuition that if you turn down the next line of parked cars at the mall, someone will back out right in front of you, leaving the perfect parking spot close to the door.  That’s more gut feeling and being in tune with your higher self.  Of just being flat-ass lazy.

Technically, a sigil is a “thing” that has been inscribed with symbols, in a particular order and a particular way that imbues the thing with magical power.  Amulet with writing, kind of thing.

Sometimes, though, Universe writes the SIGIL out over the whole cloth of your existence.

Happened to us Saturday afternoon between 4:45 and 9:00 PM. 

.Here’s how the symbols read:

1.  About 4:45, my buddy, the retired Major fellow, called to report that he and his bride would NOT be going over to Lake Chelan as planned.  They’ll be staying home because while putting the roof racks on their VW Taureg (which tows a small trailer), the Maj. didn’t place the ladder right.

It slipped and he went Humpty-Dumpty, complete with the “Crack!” noise as his ankle hit the ground.

It was too puffy to get a good X-Ray of it by the time he got to the docs, so he will be get another foot-selfie Tuesday but he’s down for the count on crutches with a baseball-sized foot.

Falling event #1 complete.

2.  By the time that call was done, we were outside Elaine’s son Brandon’s place where we walked in and were treated to fresh home-smoked sockeye salmon – totally delish.  The kids outdid themselves.

But my ears perked up at the mention (mid-bite of salmon and a vodka water) that that very morning, Brandon had been working in the yard and the ladder he was on (for no apparent reason) broke.

That sent him to the ground…no injuries, but he will feel it.

Fall Event #2 complete.

3.  Later on in the evening, around 8 PM, or so, we drop in with the kids to a party (kids of the ‘hood when Elaine was raising Brandon” and Aerospace Rick (who drivers a mint magnum-like Ferrari, told how his daughter, and attorney, had just be sidelined with a sprained ankle.

She had been wearing high-heels and one of them just keeled over. Broke her ankle so down for a week or longer.

Falling Event #3 complete.

4.  We get home and I mention this has been an odd day for things “falling” and as the conversation drifted along, I noted a funny thing in my mouth.

A gold cap on a tooth has fallen out.

Off to the emergency dental place Sunday morning to have it repaired.

Falling Event #4.

Near as I can tell, this is a seriously improbable series of things falling around us.

As we head back to Texas Thursday morning, we will have rain falling, but that’s not as “in your face” as the Saturday news arriving at our ears:  Great Falling.

We’ll see if markets listen, though this has all the hallmarks of being an entirely forgettable day in the pre-open.

It’s all Interconnected…

So there we were:  Daughter Denise, Elaine, and me having a dandy brunch of everything good on Earth out at Ivar’s Salmon House on Sunday on Seattle’s Lake Union in Seattle  when somehow we got on the topic of how everything in the world is interconnected.

(After a neat conversation about when Bitcoin will get hacked with a recent UW grad in molecular biology who is what?  Waiting tables at Ivar’s which should tell you reams about the condition of the US economy for non-banksters, but that’s a long rap for a distant Monday…)

Not that we would argue the point, about interconnectedness, but Denise told us a marvelous story that somehow didn’t make it down to media in East Texas and it’s quite a story, if you haven’t head it:.

The long and short of it is that last fall, there were some sacred Indian relics that were to be moved from ta local museum back to one of the Puget sound islands.

To get there, the museum folks put the relics in a vehicle and caught a  ferryboat to take the relics to their final (and more proper) resting place.

As the ferry neared its destination, something never-before seen happened:  A massive pod of more 35 killer whales appeared and  seemed to dutifully escort the ferry on its trip …the kind of thing that for humans would be almost like marching in procession with a casket.

Hasn’t happen before, or since, explained Denise.  evidence enough to her – and us when sitting by the lake watching the boats go by and recalling our own connections with the sea from our sailing days – that there is a connection that is both timeless and non-local.

A connection we ignore (every day) at our own peril.….

http://seattletimes.com/html/localnews/2022162797_apxpugetsoundorcas.html

I assume you know killer whale brains are bigger than human brains?

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(Gig Harbor, WA)  One of the biggest “prepping problems” is what threat to prep for.  While there are no hard and fast rules, there is something to be learned from a study of relative values.  With this in mind, a long ramble this morning into the mindset that works.

We also look at the spread of Ebola and what that might do…a major killing time, but slow arriving and thus, plenty of time to prep for what could be “national days in” that could be coming worldwide if the worst fears of epidemiologists materialize.

All of which requires plenty of coffee and is best taken on the deck with the sun of late summer to ward of the chills of what’s to come.  Markets are often driven by internals, but every so often exogenous events come along that “blow over” the status quo.  The period from this fall to next summer may be a period when externalities may again remind us that while Quants can rule the milliseconds, Ma Nature rules the days…

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