Economic Implications of Electronic Families

Oh, boy!  Another one of those “bridge-the-generations” insights this morning that ought to make us all (subscribers, anyway) better investors and thus richer.

The insight came in the form of an email from a friend – who was upset that I covered the “team approach to job search” in Wednesday’s Peoplenomics report.  A kind of roadmap.

But my long-time colleague said no!  People of the Now need to stop texting and get out and hit the bricks to find a job – just as we all have..back in the day.

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Special Update: Dallas Meme Update

For several weeks now, I have been telling you about the odd way that Dallas, Texas has been cropping up in our data as a “hot” word…particularly in the work done by Chris McCleary over at the

There, using the technology that Grady developed for our members of the public have been contributing to something I cooked up several years back called “The DreamBase” – a database of dreams.

As frequently mentioned, in Chris’ unique application of the technology, instead of looking at general language on the Internet for hints about the future, his DreamBots look at the linguistics within dreams.  Those linguistics scream Dallas.

And we’re in the process of adapting that to generalized language searches.

Break: Full Stop

Now the new development out this morning:

Judicial Watch has just posted an alert: “Imminent Terrorist Attack Warning By Feds on US Border

A couple of key paragraphs here:

Specifically, Judicial Watch sources reveal that the militant group Islamic State of Iraq and Greater Syria (ISIS) is confirmed to now be operating in Juarez, a famously crime-infested narcotics hotbed situated across from El Paso, Texas. Violent crimes are so rampant in Juarez that the U.S. State Department has issued a number of travel warnings for anyone planning to go there. The last one was issued just a few days ago.

Intelligence officials have picked up radio talk and chatter indicating that the terrorist groups are going to “carry out an attack on the border,” according to one JW source.  “It’s coming very soon,” according to this high-level source, who clearly identified the groups planning the plots as “ISIS and Al Qaeda.” An attack is so imminent that the commanding general at Ft. Bliss, the U.S. Army post in El Paso, is being briefed, another source confirms. The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) did not respond to multiple inquiries from Judicial Watch, both telephonic and in writing, about this information.

While it would be horrific to see America’s southern border attacked from (and effectively by) Mexico – a fulfillment of our long-term reporting of the Low-Intensity-Conflict [LIC] with Mexico going hot – there are multiple reasons to expect that the “attack” on the border may not be precisely on the border but in a major population center where maximum body count and/or media impact could be developed.

Tactically, it would be an interesting move, too:  Dallas is much closer to Heartland America than El Paso.  Yet, there’s a large enough “pipeline” that runs drugs into Dallas and a illegal population trail to points north, that such an attack would have much more psychological impact than would be the case of an attack on El Paso or any other border town.

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Zoot Suit Leadership: Policy? WHAT Policy?

I’m no fashion expert, but except for the tight cuffs (gathered) on the pants, I thought president Obama didn’t look the least-bit convincing in his press conference Thursday.  Wiki it:

zoot suit (occasionally spelled zuit suit) is a men’s suit with high-waisted, wide-legged, tight-cuffed, pegged trousers, and a long coat with wide lapels and wide padded shoulders. This style of clothing became popular among the African American, Chicano and Italian American communities during the 1940s…

Can someone please mail the White House a copy of John Malloy’s book on dressing for success?  And, while you’re in the book shop, how about some Harvey Mackay on negotiating?

In the grounded world where George lives, a real power suit is worn whenever addressing potential adversaries.  You want as much “winning through intimidation” as possible.

And to say “We don’t have a strategy yet” when comes to ISIS only reveals the depth of confusion and internal conflict in this administration.

(One of our readers wondered “Isn’t Kill ‘em all and let God sort it out a strategy?” We’ve sent him our book on political correctness (Idiots at the Helm) and how it is being used against America.)

A light brown suit of soft fabric may drape well, but it sends a conflicted message.  Like that school-yard bully showing up at your place when you were a kid, threatening to knock your block off, while wearing a dress.  Still might happen, but, you know what I’m saying?  Gotta look the part of tough.

I’m not the only one put off by the Changer-in-Chief coming out (not that way!) in a tan suit./  Twitter lit up on this Thursday as well.

I have to admire PolitiFact’s “Audacity of Taupe” headline.

Russia, meantime, is playing events like a fiddle. Putsky sticks to power suits and armored columns.

RIA Novosti says the UN Security Council is ignoring a Russian call for a cease fire in Ukraine, but what are Russian troops doing on the Ukraine side of the border and what about all the arms they are pouring in?

Meantime, the administration has admitted to having no strategy for ISIS…so I’m sitting back waiting for someone at State to start passing out cookies again, like seems to have kicked off the tension with Ukraine.

And while all this is going on, Israel-Hamas is still hotter than a three-dollar pistol, too, notes our expert commentator “warhammer”…


On the international front, the Israeli security forecast calls for a potential triple whammy from Hamas, Hezbollah and Iranian armed Palestinians.

Iran is definitely fanning the flames, trying to force Benjamin Netanyahu into a strategic corner.  Truth be told, while no former soldier in his right mind ever wants there to be another war (Netanyahu is a former special ops ‘snake eater’), you don’t want to test a warrior’s patience.  As we know, once Israel commits, it goes “all in.”  If Iran really wants to tangle with Israel, Netanyahu will launch a category 5 sh*t storm at them.

Personally, I think Israel would prefer delaying serious action military against the Persians ‘at least’ until their 4th Dolphin class submarine is delivered from Germany and outfitted with “Israeli equipment” (sometime in the 1st half of next year).

But if the must act, then act they will. 

“Until the wolf shall lay with lamb, we’d better be the wolves.”
–Ehud Barak


Oh, and lest I forget, flipping back to ISIS for a moment…when an ISIS flag-waver gets into a chase with Windy City’s finest, seems to me to make the case that ISIS has designs of somewhere in America for a terror target other than Chicago.

The city which is hot in dreams and language right now is Dallas.

More after this…


BTW:  Any similarity between Harvey Mackay and Harvey Spectre (Suits) is coincidental, or is…..  And I would have put up the link to Malloy’s Dress for Success but Amazon won’t let me do it as it’s an “excluded product” (whatever the hell that is…).  Maybe they could send a copy to the White House on your behalf…Speaking of which…

On the Molinsky Watch

Joan Rivers (Molinsky) is in a coma following throat surgery gone bad.  Her daughter (Melissa Rivers, a/k/a/ Melissa Warburg Rosenberg) is with her.

I went to double-check the meaning of the word vituperous and discovered (over here) that Merriam-Webster’s site doesn’t offer the word free.  Wikitionary has more, however.

I was looking up the word as part of a round-up of adjectives to describe Molinsky/Rivers’ sense of humor…

I don’t know what it means, but vituperous and dressing for success seem to have “gone corporate” which has me scratching my bald spot.  I think it means something, but what?

Speaking of Humor:  Personal Income/Savings

Say, this is classic stuff, here…

Personal income increased $28.6 billion, or 0.2 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $17.7 billion, or 0.1 percent, in July, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) decreased $13.6 billion, or 0.1 percent. In June, personal income increased $67.1 billion, or 0.5 percent, DPI increased $62.9 billion, or 0.5 percent, and PCE increased $50.5 billion, or 0.4 percent, based on revised estimates.

# # #

Personal saving — DPI less personal outlays — was $739.1 billion in July, compared with $709.4 billion in June. The personal saving rate — personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income — was 5.7 percent in July, compared with 5.4 percent in June.

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Coping: A Most Unusual Golf Story

(Gig Harbor, WA) While the nature of UrbanSurvival is generally serious, we do (now and then) actually tear ourselves away from the computer long enough to have contact with the occasional human.

Such was the case Thursday when my friend, the retired Major-fellow who I’ve known for  60+ years and I decided we would hit the local driving range to hit a couple of buckets and then wolf Chinese food and talk about the ‘old days in the ‘hood; growing up.

The first indication that the day would be strange happened when I asked at the front desk where the drivers were to rent.

We don’t have drivers anymore.  People come in and ruin then in just a few days to a week.  So help yourself to all the irons you want, but no, sorry, no drivers.  You’ll have to bring your own…”

What the hell? 

A driving range with no drivers?

“Well, OK, where would I get a split-shot Americano tall?”

We don’t have coffee, sorry.

At this point, I should have realized that I’d flipped into an alternate Universe because EVERYONE has coffee in the Seattle-Tacoma area.

Oh, and every driving range is supposed to have drivers.  Otherwise, they’d be called iron ranges, would they not?

A warm-up swing, or two, and I was into it.  Borrowing the retired Major’s driver, and summoning that “muscle-memory” of mine, a quickly topped my first shot, sending it all of 50-feet out.

This was followed by a series of hooks, slices, and tops, that would have  been great B-roll for an old silent movie.

Meantime the retired Major stepped up to his plate (sounds better than mat, although that would be more accurate) – all the while insisting he hasn’t touched clubs in years, either.

“Hold it, Ure, something is going on here…”  The Little Voice In My Head (LViMH) was asking a question:  “How come if he doesn’t play, the grips on his clubs are all soft and comfy – like they’ve just come back from a pro shop?  Yours that haven’t been touched are all powdery and threaten to catch fire at any moment…but these are, well,  great…”

The r-Major’s third or fourth drive hit out past 200-yards, all the while he was telling me he hadn’t picked up sticks in years.

Say, where did that smooth back-stroke and fluid swing come from?  Hmmm…

I stood my matt, eyed the three-wood and decided to give it a try. 

After a slice, hook, ,slice, and finally one ball going out to 110 yards while making an odd spinning sound, my confidence was on the verge of returning.


I topped it.

But what the heck?  The ball bounced about 30-feet in front of us, then again at 50 feet…going like a bat out of hell, but low.  A stealth golf ball…

Then it happened!

On the odd 5th bounce, or so, it went into a hole!  The course has a hole on it, about 50-yards out, designed for people to sharpen up their sand wedge and pitching tools.

My ball went in!!!! Holy Mother of Pearl!!!

My first-ever hole in one. 

I looked – for a good moment – taking in the glow of that first hole-in-one…and then asked the retired Major “Did you see that, RJ? A  Hole in one!!!”

I looked over at his mat and he was face down teeing up a ball.  “Uh…no…you…uh…what?”

“What do you mean what?  I JUST HAD A FRIGGING HOLE IN ONE.”

Well, that’s good.”  And with that, he launched another out to the red flag at 200-yards with that smooth liquid swing…….

Thus ends today’s odd golf story.  The moral of which is what?

If you get sucked into playing this silly game, and do accidentally (or otherwise) get a hole-in-one, the sky will not part (the drizzle had continued through this), the people from Golf Digest will not be calling to see how you did it.

And if your luck is as good as Ure Luck, you best friend will be looking somewhere else at the moment your Personal Miracle Moment in Golf (PMMiG) shows up.

The saving grace to this is that now I know why drivers don’t last long enough at the “driving” range.

# # #

The Chinese food was good, but I had an upset stomach most of the night because I made the mistake of having pizza for dinner.  Pappy always warned me, as a boy, about eating foods from (nearly) opposite time zones.  Said it would cause indigestion….just like mixing the “grain and the grape” can have dire consequences.

Electric Airplane

You absolutely have to go read the article on the Experimental Aircraft Association website about a new electric airplane that has taken its maiden flight.

The plane will carry two people, climb at 1,000 feet per minute, has a one hour range with 30-minute reserves and can be charged in an hour, or so.

Meantime, an FAA announcement of possible interest:

On July 22, 2014, the FAA issued a Notice of Proposed Policy for the non-aeronautical use of airport hangars which clarifies compliance requirements for airport sponsors, airport managers, airport tenants, state aviation officials, and FAA compliance staff. To view the draft policy, go to The comment period will remain open until September 05, 2014.

People who fly the (fine) Van’s RV series of planes might want to comment, lest too many people be able to say “I’m going down to the airport to work on my RV…” and not mean a high-performance aircraft.

(Anything compared to our old Beechcrate is a high-performance aircraft…)

Skydiving Adventures

Son George II sent this along as one of the luckier skydiving vids you’ll see:

G II now has his “coach” rating as he works up through his jumps… somewhere around 165 jumps now.  Seems to be serious about getting his teaching creds.


Long-time NASCAR fan Don sent this in about a story a while back……


As I’m sure you’ve now been told a 100 times, there was NO death at a NASCAR race this weekend! It was a “sprint car” race where a young driver was hit. NASCAR hasn’t raced on dirt since the late 50’s except for the truck series the last 2 yrs at ironically, Tony Stewarts dirt track.

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Nice, Obedient Little Market

Thanks to this morning’s technical issue, which delayed this morning’s post, mwe have the luxury of looking at the markets when open.

Remember a couple of days back, we had a libretto (short plot summary) that suggested what we would see would include:

* Market high around August 26th plus or minus a week or two

* Run-up into the holiday week

*  Sell off into the act5ual weekend of the holiday because “investors” are really a cowardly lot, who run at the first sign of trouble because in their world, interest and profit is not determined by time and risk, but rather by time only.  If there’s risk involved, they head for this hills.

This morning, the nice, obedient market is doing exactly as scripted:

As of press time, the Dow is now nearly 100 points and it looks like the annual high may have been put in this week.

More importantly, however – on the technical side- is that the S&P 500 just made the 2,000 level.  If it doesn’t come back and hold well above the 2,000 level, this could be one of those cases where the market hits the lower side of a strong psychological level (S&P 2,000) and doesn’t muster the conviction to punch through.

Or, goes the other line of thinking, it’s not uncommon  for a market to hit a resistance layer, pull back and gather strength for a while, and then power through it.  Sometimes this striking of the underside can take 2-4 times before the final outcome is known.

The next three months are often the worst part of the year, so things should become amusing quickly.

Another factor to consider?  Gross Domestic Product data:has just been released:

Real gross domestic product — the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States — increased at an annual rate of 4.2 percent in the second quarter of 2014, according to the “second” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 2.1 percent. The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the “advance” estimate issued last month.

In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 4.0 percent. With this second estimate for the second quarter, the general picture of economic growth remains the same; the increase in nonresidential fixed investment was larger than previously estimated, while the increase in private inventory investment was smaller than previously estimated (see “Revisions” on page 3).

The increase in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), private inventory investment, exports, nonresidential fixed investment, state and local government spending, and residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

You might have thought that a 4.2% annualized increase in GDP would have powered the markets the other way (UP) but no, not the case…at least so far.  I still think we will move higher from here and this may be little more than position-reshuffling before the long weekend so yes, I am still in my highly speculative long position.

More after this…

Ukraine Going Hot

Earlier this week, I told you that Ukraine wasn’t anywhere near over.

Sadly, the headlines this morning are bearing our what our sources have told us – that both NATO and Russia are continuing to move men and equipment into place for a showdown, although each has been care to remain just below the “press threshold” which is both a good thing – and bad.

This morning things are back above the US press threshold with reports that a Russian armored column has seized a key city in the eastern part of what used to be Ukraine, but which is quickly becoming a suburb of Moscow.

Given that the Russians could back this play with a lot more horsepower over the weekend, maybe the market is getting worried that the US/West is getting caught flat-footed [again] in world affairs.

Russian Bank-Jack

All of the events in Ukraine add up to something else that should worry the hell out of US officials. Even the cookie monster at State might grok this, even if ‘strategic standoff blown” is incomprehensible.

By now, you have no doubt already seen the reports that Russian hackers have hit at least two US banks.

But here’s the interesting worry-point:  What if these hackers are merely setting up for a larger attack yet to come?  Suppose that Russia is set to launch a full-scale Blitzkrieg kind of attack in Ukraine.  Would it not make sense to time such an assault by wiping out as many Western banks as possible?

Oh, sure, payback for sanctions is one school of thought, but another is that this is the little war before the Big War.  And that’s probably another reason why the market turned chicken this morning.

You Mean They Weren’t?

Ah…the fine line between function and legal as Angelina Jolie and Brad Pitt have formalized their relationship.

My question (that the non-financial press) doesn’t want to cover:  Does this mean they will be filing a joint return, now?  That’d be the real snooze angle to it.

Word from the Gar-Fish

Years ago, I used to occasionally appear with buds Pat Kelly and Space Young on the old KMET (LA’s) “Surf Report with a Beat” back in my George Garrett radio days.  (Ure wasn’t recall-friendly, I was told).  I be the GarFish…which was back when Mt. St.

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Coping: The Bigger Problem of Ferguson

A super short report this morning due to technical issues…all of which have now been solved.

But the most interesting – and thought-provoking – email in  a long time came in yesterday from my friend “warhammer”  who is the retired military war gamer.


The army is conducting an “intellectual exercise” that considers a future ‘mega city’ insurrection and how the military will deal with it.


While military leaders stress it is simply a simulation, the harsh reality is that a nation does not dedicate valuable time and resources to a scenario it does not consider to be plausible.

It also, in my educated opinion, indicates the national military command structure (the president, joint chiefs and national security team) consider the potential for such a situation a “real and present danger to their security.

The “war game,” against U.S. Citizens on domestic turf, anticipates an ‘alternate future’ in which Posse Commitatus (U.S. Law which prohibits the military from being used against the domestic population) will be suspended or repealed under the premises of safeguarding national security.

The ‘game’ synopsis does not clearly state whether the insurrection is initiated by foreign or domestic actors. The stated intent is to defeat the uprising and recapture the notional fallen mega city.

The results of war games often serves as the game plan for subsequent military operational doctrine. In the vernacular, the recommended doctrine emanating from these strategic games goes “on the shelf” for use by some future command structure.

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This Morning’s Report Delayed

Due to technical issues this morning’s report will be posted later than usual. Please check back…

A Team Approach to Job-Hunting

(Gig Harbor, WA) Being in the Pacific Northwest to work but also spend time with our kids, one of the hard realities we’ve come across is that young people today often have no time to aggressively pursue new and improved job opportunities. In response to this – because our kids aren’t the only ones in this “box” – we lay out how we’re working the problem and, along the way, you’ll probably learn a lot about the job-hunting process and learn to see it with “new eyes.” More important to me? I get to haul out one of the most useful management stories I’ve ever learned. This one is right up there with “Everything is a process” and “Everything is a business model.

Housing Increases Again

Just out from Case Shiller/S&P, but despite the first chart, this is a very solid report:

New York, August 26, 2014 – Data through June 2014, released today by S&P Dow Jones Indices for its S&P/Case-Shiller1 Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, show a sustained slowdown in price increases. The National Index gained 6.2% in the 12 months ending June 2014 while the 10-City and 20-City Composites gained 8.1%; all three indices saw their rates slow considerably from last month. Every city saw its year-over-year return worsen.

The National Index, now being published monthly, gained 0.9% in June. The 10- and 20-City Composites increased 1.0%. New York led the cities with a return of 1.6% and recorded its largest increase since June 2013. Chicago, Detroit and Las Vegas followed at +1.4%. Las Vegas posted its largest monthly gain since last summer.

The chart above depicts the annual returns of the U.S. National, the 10-City Composite and the 20-City Composite Home Price Indices. The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S.

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Two-Part Tuesday

Hold the hash browns!  Our column this morning is the monthly two-parter because this is  when the monthly Case Shiller/S&P/Dow Jones (and whoever else) Housing numbers come in, so look for an update about 20-minutes past the hour when these come out and we get a chance to pencil out what it means.

While you’re sipping the burntbucks and waiting for the bean rush, the other Big Deal du jour is that this is the day of the average annual market high.

Yesterday, as expected, the S&P zoomed up to 2,001.95.  BUT the wimpy damn market couldn’t hold it, so maybe today or tomorrow…we’ll have to wait for the open.  And some of that may depend on the housing data.  Which I’m guessing will be good.

The NASDAQ composite also hit a new 52-week high (4,571.14) but again, wimped out at the close.

The futures are showing small gains in the pre-open, but like I said, a lot will depend on how the housing numbers look and some of the other data due out this week.

Durable Goods, for example, is just out: HUGE INCREASE…

New Orders
New orders for manufactured durable goods in July
increased $55.3 billion or 22.6 percent to $300.1 billion,
the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase,
up five of the last six months, was at the highest level
since the series was first published on a NAICS basis in
1992, and followed a 2.7 percent June increase.
Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.8
percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 24.9
Transportation equipment, also up five of the last six
months, drove the increase, $56.6 billion or 74.2 percent
to $133.0 billion.
Shipments of manufactured durable goods in July, up
five of the last six months, increased $8.0 billion or 3.3
percent to $248.9 billion. This was at the highest level
since the series was first published on a NAICS basis
and followed a 1.2 percent June increase.
Transportation equipment, up two consecutive months,
led the increase, $5.6 billion or 7.9 percent to $76.3
Unfilled Orders
Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in
July, up fifteen of the last sixteen months, increased
$59.2 billion or 5.4 percent to $1,158.5 billion. This was
at the highest level since the series was first published on
a NAICS basis and followed a 1.0 percent June increase.
Transportation equipment, up ten of the last eleven
months, led the increase, $56.7 billion or 8.3 percent to
$738.4 billion.

As usual, we are seeing a bubbly market ahead of the holiday weekend.  After what could be a pop today and into tomorrow, by the end of the week, there could be some selling develop, which is the kind of holiday pattern to look for.  T?hree days of risk, instead of two, lead the big players to wet their pants.  They lighten up.

That leaves only the problem of how this fall will work out, but remember crashes never develop at tops.  This market could drop a thousand points before things would get even remotely interesting to us perrmabears.

So bring on the BBQ sauce…looks like we’re going to make it through summer without the world ending.  That’s what our Peoplenomics Trading Model has been saying for a couple of years… It has been consistently long in the face of my gnashing and bashing and it makes me crazy because I just know that the markets are going to collapse from internal corruption.  But they don’t.

My own work jeers me, taunts me, and makes money while I stew and curse its damn accuracy so far.  I’m sure the DSM-V has a name for this: SBD: skeptical bear disease, but it’s going around.

Speaking of which:  One of our readers sent me a headline and asked me what I thought.

“Did you see “Gold, & Silver UP  Dramatically As Citi Sells USD Positions Fearing Squeeze”???  What do you think?”

WTF?  I was the wrong guy to ask:  (language alert, Ure got pissed)

Are you shitting me?  Who writes this load of crap (or for that matter) reads it???

Gold and silver haven’t “jumped dramatically” at all…gold was up to $1320 a couple of weeks back and silver was over $21.

I looked this morning when I got your email – expecting to be a zillionaire based on the headline and what?  Gold was languishing $1,277 and silver?  Sucking wind at $19.42  ($1,286 this morning and I’m still not a zillionaire.)

My point?  Don’t be a frigging idiot – follow PRICES NOT HEADLINES.  Sheep and fools get led around by 72-point type….jeez Louise…”

I was going to CC: you on this, but I didn’t have your email handy, so I thought I would mention it in the column instead.  Pardon the direct language.  And thanks to our reader for asking…it was a fair question, but even more, an important answer.

Absent a solid academic footing and years of research, the doom-porn and gold-touts are always trying to stir up buzz on the net with nonstop End of the World headlines. 

Bad news:  It’s all bullshit vying for your eyeballs so the prophets of doom can make a buck until their ship comes in.

Silver and gold aren’t going anywhere – yet.  And as I’ve held (seems like forever) when the other shoe drops in the economic long wave bottom, we’re more likely to break below $1,000 before we break $2,000 on gold.  And $15 before $30 on silver.  We are still in deflation and (pay attention to Janet, you idiot!) we’re not raising rates because we can’t because this is dead economy (locked in deflation) walking.

BTW: Draghi went to Janet School in Jackson Hole last week  and is now pimping printing in Europe.  Born-again pumper…oh, pardon, that’s pronounced economic stimulus and job creation.  In other words Print!

The whole game of the Fed is to print money like a sonovahbitch while massive deflation is whacking us and hope the resulting “modest price of living increase” fairytale holds long enough for the powersthatbe to whip up another war or get another FF op going so we can artificially stimulate the economy which is flat-lined.  Is this so hard to follow?  FMTT

Will that happen?


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Coping: With the Frontiers of Futuring, The Dallas Hit

(Gig Harbor, WA)  I’m pleased to report that I have finally figured out how to do more with our project than simply look at language and count words, see which ones are rising, and which ones not (and from there imply future).

The problem is (I can’t tell anyone (but chief programmer Grady and Chris McCleary who uses the technology as a tool in the forecasts from the

Reason?  It may be patentable.

After writing it up and sending it to Grady  (Can we code this?) the (greedy, capitalistic) thought occurred to me:  Is there a buck to be made in this?

I mean, of course, besides the obvious:  When we get tools of futuring built that really work, will we be able to make oodles of money by playing options?

That’s the obvious revenue stream, of course.  But, there’s another one:  Namely using the technique to forecast events on behalf of government.  “Here comes what looks like an earthquake is such-and-such area in this timeframe, and a revolution over in this country, in this different timeframe…”

It’s all Holy Grail stuff of seers through the ages, but I think I’ve reduced it to mathematical mumbo-jumbo, so we get to see how creative Grady is in writing math in a report writer (or as additional fields in the database, makes no difference to me where, just that the calculations are done).

So that’s pretty cool.

Dream Do Matter, But an Old Theory Problem Arises

Meantime, Chris has to be gloating about the “hit” from the National Dream Center’s forecasting efforts.  From an overnight email:

Non-PA Headline #13 said, “Chaos ensues in Dallas in wake of …Bomb threat at Dallas/Ft Worth Interntl Airport.”

Behold a bomb threat on a plane from Dallas-FtWorth on August 24th:

You need to click over to this page and read the scoring discussion Chris put together.

We’ve known that something was coming with Dallas – as we discussed that quite openly in our Sunday Special: Quakes, Dallas, and Damn Futuring.

So is that it for the Dallas pop?

Maybe – but maybe not.

This is an old problem of futuring that I described a long time ago that may be thought of as “event masking.”  OK< two problems, then…

First:  Let’s say you have evolved a new way of predicting the future.  (There are several such techniques, including ours).

And let’s say that you see data that includes words like “subsidence” “coastal” “cities” and “water.”

And then you write up a futuring forecast that includes all these terms and reflects the dire nature of whatever the worlds subsidence, coastal, and so forth, conjure up in the mind of the analyst.

Then you issue a forecast, and when it’s wrong (insofar as it doesn’t occur exactly as forecast) people become highly skeptical of all such forecasts….humans don’t score well in the probabilistic thinking realm.  They love black/white, hard forecasts.

But the forecast was still good.  The language basis might be right, but the interpretation can still be off. 

So instead of states sinking beneath the waves, you might get a note from someone like our Winnipeg news analyst fellow who politely sends this:

Dear Mr. Ure,

It seems that Mexico City is not the only locale subsiding as groundwater reserves are depleted. Chinese researchers have released an open access paper this year that contends some regions in Beijing have shown accelerating rates of subsidence from 2003 to 2010 based upon satellite measurements which the researchers claim is due to excessive groundwater extraction.

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Markets and Quaketivity

(Gig Harbor, WA)   The 6.0/6.1 quake this weekend down in the Napa Valley area north of San Francisco is waking people up to a couple of things:

One:  Prepping with food water and ham radio isn’t just a theoretical pastime.

Two:  Energy from space and the Sun just might actually mean something on Earth.


There was a 6.9 quake reported in Peru this morning which supports the idea that the eastern part of the Pacific Ring of Fire is now beginning to heat up in a major way.

As the workweek begins down in California, the damage totals are still be added up.

But more than 100 people have been treated for injuries and it’s quite the mess – state of emergency in place, and all.

Headlines like “SF escapes largest quake in decades with no disturbances” seem, well, a false sense of security.

When comes to the US West Coast, the Big One is only a matter of time.


Nipping at 2,000

The new all-time high for the S&P last week 1994.76 fell just short of crossing the big psychological gulf into the 2,000+ realm.  when I looked earlier, the S&P futures were up 7, so there’s a fair chance that given even modestly good economic news, we could hit the annual high this week, more or less on schedule.

A couple of things to watch on housing:  A key report will come out this morning and tomorrow will see the latest S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city housing data.

Driving around the Seattle/Tacoma area this weekend, we found no shortage of inventory.  Prices are firm, too.

The balance of the week had durable goods, Chicago purchasing manager numbers Friday, and other data *(like GDP) so the week has some upside potential for the bulls if the 2,000 barrier gets crossed today.

Hold on Syria Bombing?

The chairman of the Joint Chiefs is quoted as saying that ISIS is not a “direct threat” on the US yet, and is holding back against bombing in Syria to cut their options.

All of which runs a bit sideways to Chuck Hagel’s remarks of last week,. but in either case, it comes down to a simple matter of how you want to read Art of War.

Not that I am a strategic genius, but seems to me that when a bunch of upstarts in any location start announcing intent to harm America and follow through with a beheading (questioned as a false flag on conspiracy boards), seems to me we don’t wait for them to attack home soil.

Take the game to them, kick some butt, and that’s that.

This nicey-nice crap is just a little too Lord Chamberlain-like.  While I’m not suggesting Gen. Martin Dempsey change his first name to Neville, people in the sand pile respect only one thing.

Hey, Neville!  ISIS just took a Syrian air base this morning…wanna rethink your view?

And if we want a future when small groups don’t walk around kicking sand in our faces (and reports say ISIS has raised more than $125-million, thanks in part to European countries allowing ransom to be paid via “aid organizations” we need to consider these fellows are building a business model.

If you can pick a fight with the USA, do a beheading, and then have a waffling general, I’d say we’re likely looking at slip on the back-end for every day of delay on the front end.  There’s no point in having overwhelming force if you’re not willing to use it.

Seems to me that a few “tactical glass factories” would send the entire world a message – America is nuts and will go balls to the wall when pissed.  So let’s not mess with Uncle.

Of course, this will never happen: Because it would require political will and the ability to articulate being willing to “kill for peace.”  Which the upstarts know, and now look for them to attack American soil.  Not so much because they want to bring their fight here, openly, yet.  They are still infiltrating at all levels.

But what they can (and I expect will) do is something of an attack here which they will turn into a fund-raiser and we’re just growing the cancer bigger.  When it can be “burned” out right now. 

Hey Neville!  Russian APCs into Ukraine this morning….those cookie-makers at State sure set us up good on this one, huh? 

Waiting for enemies to get stronger is the height of strategic stupidity. It’s why we don’t have a southern border, except for law-abiding people.  No respect for law?  No border!  WTF?  Punish the law-followers, reward the criminals…that’s the Washington Cartel Way.

And it’s why ISIS will strike America in time – because the feminization of foreign policy and the disarming of ‘Merica is a methodical way to blunt the sharp edge of the spear.  It’s why Russia is rebuilding its buffer states.

Of course, with my “take no bullshit” campaign (TNBS 2016) solid, secure borders, gold-backed money, self sufficiency, and a labor equalization tax on all imported goods, I could never be allowed to hold office. 

But what about you?  (Where’s my meds?) Why can’t America elect strong, decisive leaders, anymore?

Oops…lead….Sorry!  That’s the word people can’t handle.  Change, transparency, mumbo-jumbo of slickster marketing?  Sure, people will vote for free apple pie and more welfare…what a surprise, huh?  But lead or (god forbid) Vision….ain’t hap-nin.  We are hopelessly screwed and you won’t run for office.

And why not?  Coward?

Notes from the Prairie

Up in the wilds of Winnipeg, our news analyst fellow has been hard at work:

Dear Mr. Ure,

Here are a pair of  links related to infectious disease that you may find to be interesting reading. There was the April 1 advice from the Saudi Ministry of Health restricting issuance of certain hajj visas although not mandated by the WHO. Secondly is the Internet Archive’s October 28, 2013 page capture of a WHO infectious disease ward design for Sierra Leone.


Channel News Asia, subsidiary of a Singaporean government-owned investment company, reported that a small shipment of Fukushima rice was being placed for retail sale in Singapore. The quoted price may have ensured brisk sales from the Japanese retailer.

The High Cost of Commercial TV

That reminds me:  Elaine and I were watching TV for the first time this weekend.  Yes, we get TV at the Ranch, but it’s free-to-air (FTA) TV from multiple countries and there are no commercials in it.  And, when we watch important content (Blacklist, Crossbones, Suits…) it’s only 43-minutes for an hour episode.

Work with me on the math here:  Most of the (standard def) shows are $1.99 per episode.

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Coping: Beware the Corporate Rumble

(Gig Harbor, WA)  One of our long-time readers is a hard working east coasterly fellow who works a good ways up in one of those NYSE-list companies that if I told you, you’d go “Sure, I use their stuff every day…”

He sent me an email last week that is more that sobering because it looks ahead to “America After””.”

After what?

Well, odds are fair that the S&P will crack 2,000 today or later in the week.  And that (trigger effect) means that we could be in one last parabolic stock market blow-off for a few months to come.  BUT then we expect the Mutha ofs All Crashes – the one that will dwarf the 1930’s and make us all broken and beyond.

Markets go Up and markets go Down.  It’s just no one in “modern times of the nanny state” really plans on the Down part.  Except for a few diehard preppers, like us, and the other 16 people left in America who live below their means and prefer being financial icebergs to being professional victims.

So read this carefully and think through what it means:

G- I was in the land of [redacted’s] Inc’s HQ the last week in meetings. Had several interesting things happen to me so I will number them in order.

1. Had a meeting with a Big Sales Exec here and told me that “They” fully expect economic implosion next year or so. I never ever heard that type of talk from someone here at [redacted] in my entire time here.

2. Met with a young sales rep that I recently placed with one of our [redacted] companies and she as a 27 year old was just as awake as me. Again I have never heard a [redacted]sales rep that was awake especially that young. She is actually prepping herself. Unheard of in the last 8 years of me glooming in this doom business haha.

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