Grist for the Inquiring Mind: Timewaves Post 2012

Every so often I accumulate ideas, clusters of this-and-that’s which don’t fit neatly under a single heading. Timewave Zero’s follow-ons post 2012 fit this mold. So rather than spend (waste?) a lot of time coming up with a logical framework for “hanging it all together” I thought instead this morning I’d share what amount to a series of “Post-Its” for folks like us who are trying to make a buck, minimize our tax consequences, and then hide it from the ravages of inflation and deflation. Oh, and along the way make a few more bucks.

Just Out: Happy–Talk on Housing?

Well, it depends on which chart you want to look at, I suppose, as the Case Shiller/S&P/Dow Jones monthly housing report is out.  Based on a consistent 20-city sample, I take this one as the “gold standard” of real estate price reports:

New York, April 29, 2014 – Data through February 2014, released today by S&P Dow Jones Indices for its S&P/Case-Shiller1 Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, show that the annual rates of gain slowed for the 10-City and 20-City Composites. The Composites posted 13.1% and 12.9% in the twelve months ending February 2014. Thirteen cities saw lower annual rates in February. Las Vegas, the leader, posted 23.1% year-over-year versus 24.9% in January. The only city in the Sun Belt that saw improvement in its year-over-year return was San Diego with an increase of 19.9%.

Both Composites remained relatively unchanged month-over-month.

Thirteen of the twenty cities declined in February. Cleveland had the largest decline of 1.6% followed by Chicago and Minneapolis at -0.9%. Las Vegas posted -0.1%, marking its first decline in almost two years. Tampa showed its largest decline of 0.7% since January 2012.

“Prices remained steady from January to February for the two Composite indices,” says David M.

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Interplanet Janet and the Choice From Hell

If Ben Bernanke was “Helicopter Ben” for his plans to try and “out-print” pernicious deflation, as I’ve been forecasting for months now, Fed boss Janet Yellen may be about to surpass Bernanke and play out the role of Schoolhouse Rock’s Interplanet Janet. I’ve been telling you for months that in lieu of the Quantitative Easing (QE) scam, the Fed would quietly turn on mass money printing as an alternative to ending up with another few trillion on their balance sheet. And thus, we arrive at this morning’s rantings of Ure local economic madman. Suppose the market is doing a huge pump and dump ahead of tomorrow’s Federal Reserve announcement? Here’s how Janet Yellen’s week could turn ugly:

Coping: Scanning the Alt. Futures

Somewhere along the line, it may have occurred to you to ask”Why is this Ure fellow so wrapped up in research related to longwave economics?”

I hope you won’t be too disappointed:  For me it’s all about being prepared for the future.  As I have said uncountable times, there are two ways to win in Life.  You can play for maximum gains (in which case I assure you I would be stinkin’ rich by now) OR you can play for minimum loss, in which case you find me with a lone gold coin, surrounded by large trees, money in the back, wonderful wife, debt-free, and so forth.

OK…this has what to do with the future?

Well, if you don’t have a pretty good idea about what the future holds, you won’t be able to project what is coming.  Thus, if you hold to the “plan for minimum losses” approach, you won’t know what to plan for.

Take any number of past topics around here that we have seen coming well in advance.  Like the present shortage (in some areas and some calibers).  I first started to write about this back in 2007 or 2008 when the Gun Owners of America noticed something odd happening.

Research followed and a few selected bets were made.  And so I never have to worry about that aspect of future.

Same thing with food prices and shortages. 

Researched the hell out of things, and sure enough, we think the outlook for food, especially in light of the energy and bee picture is pretty grim.  How to hedge?  Coauthor a book on hydroponics and have all kinds of preps in that regard and the large (20 panels worth) of solar power to ensure we will be cool and fed into the future.

When that first appeared, the critical items (MaxiGrow and MaxiBloom) were picked up in bulk.  Again,; another problem we won’t have to worry about.

And so it goes:  Future appears, gives hints, one proactively plans and then kicks back to watch how the play follows as 7-billion people follow along behind.

Economics is not the only way to play this game, of course.  I used to write a good bit about an approach called predictive linguistics.

But the goal posts are now moving in that arena.  In fact, just yesterday, a EurekaAlert offered this:

A system detects global trends in social networks 2 months in advance

Works using just 50,000 Twitter accounts

This news release is available in Spanish.

A new method of monitoring identifies what information will be relevant on social networks up to two months in advance. This may help predict social movements, consumer reactions or possible outbreaks of epidemics, according to a study in the Universidad Carlos III of Madrid (UC3M) is participating.

The aim of the research, on which scientists from the Universidad Autónoma of Madrid, the NICTA of Australia, and the American universities Yale and the University of California-San Diego have also collaborated, was to test what is known as the “sensors hypothesis” on the social networks: Is it possible to find a group of people (sentinels or sensors) with a special position that would allow the information that “goes viral” globally on the internet to be monitored? “If we could do that, we would be able to predict that viral spread, which would allow us to better understand social mobilization, debates regarding opinions, health, etc., and to determine how they become global,” explains one of the researchers, Esteban Moro Egido, of the Interdisciplinary Complex Systems Group at UC3M (Grupo Interdisciplinar de Sistemas Complejos).

Nice work, huh?

Of course the problem with this is that we (you, me, the genpop at large) will never see all the outputs from this because why?  How about “We’re not writing the checks…”?

A good bit can, however, be done with simple tools like word frequency analysis, which is why our very public www.nostracodeus.com project runs daily and posts bits, clips, but mainly words that are either ascending or descending and these give us a sense of future.

While yesterday’s data has us looking for some kind of replay or referencing of Nelson Mandela over coming days, we are intrigued by the present word groupings Sanctions, War, Attack, Economy, Collapse.  Grady will have an update on the www.nostracodeus.com site this morning.  Main thing is this is not a system where so much interpretation is left to the discretion of an informed analyst.  Rather, the data is the data and we can all look at the tea leaves using the tool.

And that gets us to the point.  (At last!)

The other way of “seeing alternate futures” is by paying attention to dreams.

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Sleep Till Thursday–or War

Like every Monday, this one started as all Mondays do; looking with disbelief at how transient the weekend was and wondering “What the hell did I really get done in two days?”  and “Where’d the weekend go???

A check of the sky, the radiation survey meter next to my desk, and noticing that the sky was still devoid of glowing mushrooms, led me to conclude that War didn’t break out this weekend over Ukraine and thus, predictable, the market ought to rally this morning until the next turd-in-the-punch-bowl shows up in headlines. 50 up at the open, call it.

I figure about Thursday the punch will turn undrinkable.

Here’s Ure’s Impeckerble Logic:

    • The only major economic news this morning is a “Who cares?” housing number on pending home sales.  This ought to be down, but figuring out “How far is down?” is hardly worth the calories needed to fire neurons.  So there goes Monday.
    • That gets us (still snoozing) to Tuesday when the Case-Shiller/S&P/Dow Jones (and whoever else wanders by) 20-City Housing Index comes around. This one ought to tell us we’re still stuck at 2003-2004 prices, but, as usual, only the top 2 percent of the assembled multitude will wonder what $100 in 2003 would buy today.  (The correct answer is $77.82 worth, since to hold purchasing power of a $100 bill printed in 2003 you’d need $128..15 today.)  Yes, dear, that really means something but not to the nation’s lamebrain financial press which can’t adjust inflation to save their sorry souls.
    • The other tell-tale tomorrow is Consumer Confidence (emphasis on the “con” parts.  More than anything, an economic realist, such as you-know-who, will use this to calibrate “Kentucky Windage” on how slow-thinking the ‘Mercian public is with all these pills in ‘em.
    • You’d need to be a subscriber to Peoplenomics.com in order to hear the blood boil about the advance GDP numbers coming Wednesday.

    Then we get to Thursday and by about here, we ought to figure out what “Mayday!  Mayday!  Mayday!” is all about because…

      • Challenger job cuts come out.
      • Personal Income (always a giggle) will be released along with it’s hysterical side-kick “personal savings rate” which includes (you’ll love this…) paying down credit card debt. (Honest accounting would book the depreciated value of the crap you bought, but that’s a longish rant you are too busy for…)
      • This all comprises something to do with Personal Consumption Expenditure tables, which is sort of like the trauma doc’s notes on why your wallet (OK, or purse) is bleeding red all over the place.  (“Change!” remember?  Which, in turn, is kinda like “One born every minute” but with a voting lever.)
      • Construction spending (down on single family is my bet, up on chicken coops for the poor and disenfranchised to keep ‘em in hock to The Man, I figure).
      • And if that’s not enough, once the morning’s tears have been wiped away, along with come auto and truck sales just in time to ruin an otherwise pending Miller time Thursday after the Fed Money Printing Festival Revelations are disclosed.  (Seems like I’m the only guy saying “Holy crap!  Printing M1 here lately at almost 19%…where’s the inflation?  None?  OMG that means DEFLATION has really started to dig in!!!”)

      To wrap up the week, we should get the unemployment rate, hourly earnings and factory orders (What factories?  They’re all in China, FCOL).

      Now, perhaps this is a somewhat elongated soliloquy to get to my first point:  But here’s the deal, plain and simple:

      Since we talked Friday, a story came out that US factories are gaining on China.  In longer versions of the story, like this one in USA Today, what you read is all about how productivity is increasing in America.  Which, no doubt, it is.  I mean, the Boston Consulting Group is shooting straight, right?

      To me, however, this is one of those good-news, bad-news kinda of stories.  Why?  Well, I’m sure all the productivity stories are true and yeah, sure, you betcha there will be jobs building the factories.  But what’s going to be inside? 

      Machines.  Automation.  Robots.

      And it sets the baseline for a deeper discussion which I’m going to keep harping on you about until you want to puke:  Productivity reaching the mystical 100% means no jobs for humans.  And that’s the bugger in the whole equation of modern capitalism.  One of two.

      T’other?  If you’ve been paying attention, it is that even with lower interest rates, we have falling behind the power curve, so that compound interest still eats the global economic system in short order, which is why the New World Order clowns are all scared shitless because they know that periodic global economic depressions don’t end happily. (Look around you for signs and portents.)

      While we wait for the unhappy ending (which some prescient/RV/seer types figure will be 2015-2016, the Big Slide is on and this year’s “Sell in May and Go Away” could be one for the record books. Just a hunch, mind you.

      There’s no point in worrying about it this morning:   This is still Monday.  And like the headline this morning said in just five words and a punctuator:  Sleep Till Thursday – Or War.

      We’ll get to that next…

      War!  (Of words, so far)

      President Traveler is taking time out from his Asia cuisine to announce “New U.S. Sanctions on Russia over Ukraine.”  (I had leftover spaghetti this morning, but the national press seems to have overlooked my side of it.)

      Poor move. On Sanctions, not my spaghetti.   No, make that really, really dumb move for two reasons that ought to be obvious.

      1.  If you tell Russia what we’re going to do, before it is in place, then Russia will hit the push buttons on their programmed response and the net gain is nil.

      2.  Secondly, Russia made it through the weekend without going into eastern Ukraine, so now is NOT the time to be slapping on sanctions.  Unless you’re trying to pick a fight, of course, and in that case, must be some really bad news about the economy on the horizon because the #1 reason for most wars is socioeconomic…

      3.  Third:  Putin will be really pissed when he reads in the NY Times how the US/West is after his personal hidden wealth around the world, figures our tipster Madison Avenue Mike.

      So with this (mild, restrained) analysis, let’s see what warhammer sees as he polished his spectacles and oak leaves…

      George,

      It is vital that leaders in the West examine all the viable motivations for Russia’s annexation of the Crimea and its apparent intent on safeguarding the bordering Eastern Ukraine. While I do not agree with all the points laid out in the article by the Guardian . .

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      Coping: Monday in the WoWW

      Ure’s Grand Universal Theory of Reality (GUT-OR) was shaken from the ether at exactly 12:56 AM this morning.  A time that will live in infamy.

      There I was, laying in bed as a huge lightshow appeared outside and a few minute later the rains arrives, part of that weather system that’s now killed about 20-some people as it meanders up the midsection of the country.

      A few minutes on from here, the soft “splaht, splaht” of rain on the screen porch metal roof changed to “ting, ting” as barely pea-sized hail began falling.

      You’ve got better hearing that a dog sometimes,” she offered.  “Why is it you can’t hear me when I ask you to…”

      Oh-oh…Quick!  Time to fake a ‘snork’ like I’m only half awake.

      But I was more than half there.  My brain was working through the arrival of UFO’s over the Roswell NM area in 1947 only about 94 miles from the Trinity Test site where the first atomic weapon was exploded that eventually was credited with ending World War Two.  Would something like that happen, oh, about now?

      The mind was working through the odds of a UFO being brought down in one of our fields in the Texas Outback.  You’d assume they wouldn’t crash at an airport or in a big city, if possible.  But there was something about electrical discharges involved and my mind then went to work on whether that indicated that antigravity was ultimately going to be solved with a static discharge system like the Biefield-Brown experiments, or whether it would be broken with the rotating B-field theory that my buddy Vince and I keep working on.

      Somewhere about here, the B-fields (turned so as to make a spacetime vortex pulled into the lead as I thought back on an email that had some in Friday from reader Warren.

      Warren, in case you’ve misplaced the memory, was the fellow who took his lawnmower out a while back, mowed a BIG yard, and put the lawnmower away.  He then discovered (later) that the mower had use no gas.  Zero, zip, nada. 

      That was Warrens first face-off with the World of Woo-Woo, but his note Friday revealed it was back…

      Has anyone else been ‘gaining’ or ‘losing’ time? e.g., take a look at the clock and it’s 12:30 PM, look at it again an hour later and it’s 11:30 AM. That sort of thing? That’s happened to me several times over the last week or so…

      Nope. No ‘free’ mower gas this year…not yet, anyway.

      And that got me back to the lightning storm going through here overnight.  Will be have an uptick in WoWW reports this week because of so much “static” around with the tornadoes and such, or at the WoWW events more likely because unlike 1947, when they showed up too late, are the UFO drivers making a baseline survey before 2015-2016 when some of our remote viewing readers have run into a “road block?”

      WoWW 2

      And that gets us to another intriguing report…this time from reader Dana…

      Dear George,

      Your reader Mark, whose books and almond butter disappeared/reappeared, asked if anyone else had two or more items go missing at the same time. A couple hours after I read that post in your blog, I had a WoWW of my own:

      Working at my home office desk Friday, having a cigarette while doing a writing assignment.

      About 11:30, went downstairs to replenish coffee cup & get a new pack of cigarettes.

      There were two packs in the pantry. I took one, removed the cellophane & foil, grabbed coffee cup

      and returned to desk.

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      Strategic Living Deal Points – The Wait for War

      This morning a few “notes in the journal” about how life (finance/tech/rural) is changing and how our strategies may change as well as aging shows up and world conditions are anything but stable.  Think of this morning’s notes a waypoints along the path. 

      Worthwhile thinking points with the world at the edge of global war. The attack on Net Neutrality, in this context, is my long-predicted replay of the government seizure of the radio waves via the Communications Act of 1934 come to life.  You might remember, my friend Gaye at www.backdoorsurvival.com and I wrote a short book titled “11-Steps to a Strategic Life” which is available on Amazon.  But times are changing so we’ve begun thinking about an update because stability in life is starting to hit the fan. 

      Changes in conditions are likely to change the definition of “the good life” in large and chaotic ways.  Some notes on where that leads makes sense. After we get some coffee, of course.

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      No Point Thursday, the Headline Circus

      There are times I wake up, look over the headlines, and am convinced that the news media has invented a three (maybe four) ring circus judging the crap called “news.”

      And that the markets basically went nowhere Thursday, is just icing on the cake.

      I’ve always been suspicious of the fourth workday:  Not quiet or optimistic like Friday, so a long lunch if off the table.  No rejoicing in the halfway mark that accompanies “Hump Day” the day before.  Monday is always a fiasco, and most weeks Tuesday is when any real work gets done.

      You don’t see this very often in markets: Back-to-back identical Dow closing prices: 16,501.65 on the Dow Jones Industrials on both Wednesday and Thursday of this week.  Is it a sign of something? 

      Maybe so.  Maybe the market is just plum tuckered out.

      It has happened before, like 1995.

      That should change today because in the latest Money Supply figures out from the Fed last night, the annual rate of printing up money was 15.9% basis the most recent three months.  Eventually, someone besides me will start screaming “Here comes hyperinflation!”  Still, people are a little slow and we often run 6-months to 6-years early on things.

      The Michigan Sentiment Indicator is due out this morning at 10 (Eastern), but since Americans take more mood-altering drugs than anywhere else on earth, as long as no one makes any loud noises between 10 and 10:30 this morning, the slumber should continue.

      Still, we are a big perplexed to learn that a 700-page economics book has surged to the #1 spot on Amazon.  Thomas Piketty’s book, Capital in the Twenty-First Century is $24 bucks (with paper) or $22 bucks without.

      Speaking of books and Amazon and such, Howard Hill’s masterpiece (Mortgage Market Mayhem) is being updated and should be released this time.  It is the finest bit of financial writing I’ve read in a long time and I’ll let you know when it’s ready.

      700 pages on economics?  #1?  Perhaps there’s hope in the world after all.

      But Elaine and I were having the discussion yesterday about “What’s the right length book?”

      The topic came up because I just tried out a free Audibles.com book.  Even though the book I chose was abridged to three hours and something (a geeky business book) it was still boring as watching paint dry.  Elaine, who was out mudding the sheetrock in the sun room, came in and asked “How many times are they going to say the same thing?  How ‘bout some tunz?”

      Point taken.  So I wondered off to www.summary.com where I’ll be trying their sample/freebie later today.  (“The Power of Habit”).

      Now that the Obama Administration is emerging this week about having lied about Net Neutrality (see the New Yorker piece “Goodbye Net Neutrality; Hello Net Discrimination” in today’s editions) figuring out your preference when it comes to information density will become evermore important.  High density will be high cost.  Hard to beat paper for some things.

      Oh, and if you don’t like the internet being stolen, you can change your name to Ben Dover, try to out bid the cable industry (cable is toast, topic of our Peoplenomics report tomorrow) or ask your family doctor for meds…You know, the one you got to keep, right?

      None of this is what’s driving the Dow to open down 50 this morning…we’ll deal with that next.

      More after this…

      Center Ring: Mobgov Under Pressure

      [We begin with some theme-setting music, over here, to get you in the mood for this..]

      Let me see:  Since 1999 the US has pumped $5-billion in your tax money into Ukraine and in return for what?  A rhetorical question at best, unless you are a gas pipeline owner in Europe.

      So this morning, SecState John Kerry accuses Russia of “destabilization” (spelt Englishwise as “destabilisation” over here on the BBC site).

      While this may be the case, we wryly note that Russia, not NATO/the EU, or the US has had a naval base in the Crimea for a couple of hundred years.

      Against this backdrop, the New York Times is reporting this morning that “Ukraine says it will ‘blockade’ pro-Russian militants.”.

      And if they do (remember where you heard it first), Russia will intervene to protect their homies. Except instead of the usual “Whassup, homie?” It’s more likely going to be “Here, take this AK homie, and stand behind our “humanitarian assistance…”

      As I’ve told you previously, we instigated a coup, things didn’t work out right, now Russia is pissed, and the US has enough sense not to send troops to Ukraine since Putin’s objective is Poland’s industrial capability prior to the 5-year out standoff with China over Siberia land and resource at about the time Peak Oil will be in-your-face (*and walking more).

      Investors are a fairly cowardly lot.  Always thinking about returns and surety of the deal.  With the weekend ahead full of Eastern European question marks,  a drop today of a couple of hundred points toward the close can’t be ruled out.

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      Coping: With Idiocy – It’s Alive and Well

      Here we go again:  Another “Planet X” claim.  The inbox (and the recycle bin) usually dispose of them without me so much as getting a look at them.

      But the catchy headline this morning “Midwest quakes surge caused by Planet X/Niburu, not fracking!!!” strikes me as a new low point in mental acuity.

      A few facts, if we can? Not to ruin the doomporn business, but let’s face it, the end of the world from a runaway planet is not something to be taken lightly.

      So we look at the latest 30-day map of 2.5+ earthquakes around the world, zooming to North America and what do we find?

      This is not particularly hard shit to figure out:

      There are a whole bunch of quakes that are going on up and down the west coast.  No scientist in his (or her) right mind would place the burden of that on Planet X.  No, this most assuredly has to do with the long-term activity of the Pacific Plate which has something to do with mountains running into it – like the Sierra Nevada and back a ways, the Rockies.  And more importantly, current times coastal ranges.

      And that explains everything from the Continental Divide and west.

      The little cluster of quakes down in the area of Puerto Rico is (again) plate making mountain ranges.

      Maybe this hasn’t been widely explained enough in school: Most of the Caribbean islands are sitting on top of undersea volcanoes.   If you buy that – and the idea that the earth had more wrinkles on it than the average 100-year old, then we are left with what?

      A gob of quakes in what Midwest state that has fallen ass-over-teakettle for what?  FRACKING!

      I will go so far as to admit that the link between fracking and earthquake is maybe only 95% probable.  However, even in states like Oklahoma if you read this 2011 report, you’ll find admissions like this (highlighted part):

      What’s going on right now is a clever (more or less global) move by the Oil & Gas industry to “negotiate” an acceptable level of earthquake increases in order to address the problem of Peak Oil.

      Oh, that.

      Yeah, well, as I pointed out in this past week’s Peoplenomics report, the USA is consuming about 6-billion barrels per year and we are only producing 2.8 billion per year (in spite of the BS about “unlimited oil” which is a pantload).  At best, therefore we only have about 12-years of domestic US oil reserves left.

      It’s not like the US is alone, either.  The British Parliament has a report that says, in so many words if you understand the playing field, that the Brits will bend over as much as needed not to be the “first out” in the oil depletion wars that are forming up now.  (Like Ukraine is the gas war, right?):

      The Royal Society and Royal Academy of Engineering have reviewed the risks associated with fracking. They concluded that the health, safety and environmental risks can be managed effectively in the UK, by implementing and enforcing best operational practice. However, they made several recommendations including calling for more research on the carbon footprint of shale gas extraction.

      So that’s where life is going:  More and more drilling.

      And last night, I politely explained to the folks who want to drill some 60-foot deep seismic wells on Uretopia Ranch lands (and load them with 2 1/2 pound charges for a 3D survey) that I’ve turned that whole matter over to my attorney to deal with.

      Believe me, I understand the game here, I know the problem, and I am not amused to find that virtually everyone in Texas (who doesn’t own their subsurface rights) is, in effect, a squatter on a problem waiting to come by and make demands that their (superior) subsurface right not be infringed.

      My friend Howard mentions a horrifying reality – far more urgent than Planet X:  “You ever look at the red/blue maps and the oil/subsurface rights maps?

      All of this, no matter how you cut it, is going to come down to a process and the object of the game is always a deal because the supply of oil is NOT unlimited and Big Oil knows this and doesn’t want people to figure out that over time we’re going to be moving (more and more) into a world of trading seismic impacts and surface rights for energy consumptive lifestyles which are marvelously profitable for Big Oil.

      So if someone sends you bullshit about Planet X being the cause of Oklahoma quakes, suggest they go back to wherever they went to school and demand their money back:  Clearly they got conned.

      You might also suggest, if they can handle something more than a picture-book, that they pick up a copy of  Carl Sagan’s The Demon-Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark.

      Still, if you insist on demonstrably stupid ideas, I’m sure the Oil & Gas trolls will be along with another whopper next week, rather than explain the real trade-off in play. 

      Second Gunman on Grassy Knoll Responsible for Quakes…”    Way more probable…

      Meantime, I’ve penciled out a budget for the pending “My attorney is better than your attorney” if reason doesn’t prevail. 

      I figure to cut the checks and watch the floor show.  Sometimes in life (oil exploration and divorces come to mind)  delegating to a good attorney the least stressful way to approach things and they’ve been trained in the art…

      But I have mentioned that  an effective radiated power of 5 kW at 14,300 MHz is not the kind of power you want to be mindlessly using electric blasting caps around.  Just sayin…

      The Friday Twofer Woo-Woo

      Reader Mark has been vexed by missing almond butter and reference books, in our latest tour of the world where things just happen that shouldn’t:

      “…when you have eliminated all which is impossible, then whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth.” – Sherlock Holmes, from The Blanched Soldier

      Hi George, 

      This is a twofer woo-woo. 

      Case #1. About six weeks ago I was working on a client project and needed to access a couple of my writing/marketing reference books. I have an ordered library system, where my reference books are always in the same place on the same shelf. I went to get my two books and they were gone. There was also an empty space where the books would normally be. So I’m thinking that I must have pulled them out and used them previously and left they somewhere else. 

      George, I literally pulled my office apart looking for these books, not once, but three times! Nowhere to be found.

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      What Happened to Home Sales?

      I don’t know if you’ve had enough coffee yet to be able to form up a question at this ungodly hour, but did you happen to catch the data out Wednesday from the Census and HUD New Residential Sales report?  This is the poster child for “Train wreck…”

      Sales of new single-family houses in March 2014 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 384,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 14.5 percent (±12.9%) below the revised February rate of 449,000 and is 13.3 percent (±9.9%) below the March 2013 estimate of 443,000.

      The median sales price of new houses sold in March 2014 was $290,000; the average sales price was $334,200. The
      seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of March was 193,000. This represents a supply of 6.0
      months at the current sales rate.

      This was followed by today’s report on Durable Goods:

      New orders for manufactured durable goods in March increased $6.0 billion or 2.6 percent to $234.8 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, up two consecutive months, followed a 2.1 percent February increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 2.0 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 1.8 percent.

      Year-on-year, the data shows non-defense growth of 3.7% which might SOUND all peachy-keen, but remember the scoreboard is cockeyed:  the report is in dollars.

      And this matters HUGELY because there are 6.1% more dollars sloshing around the US economy than there were a year ago, according to the Federal Reserve’s money stocks report.

      Next Tuesday, we’ll get the Case-Shiller/S&P housing figures.  But unless I’m completely out to lunch (which is a real possibility, by the way) what’s happened to housing numbers is something called “deflation.”

      And while we’re getting ready to unload federal land onto the Chinese, who have been bailing us out, the ugly truth is that Russia is rubbing our noses in it.

      Did you see where Vlad Putin has just come out with a HUGE silver coin to mark the Russian conquest of Crimea?  At this morning’s prices that’s a $675 coin in silver.

      So while Russia gloats and we’re swimming in our sewer stuffed with bad paper, the Russians are eyeing more land and China’s gotta be looking at more land deals.  And in case you haven’t figured out that you people are smart enough to see the big pix, that’s what’s happening to home sales, I’m afraid…

      More after this…

      FDA:  Blowing Smoke?

      Electronic smokes are in the sights of the Food and Drug Administration.  As the agency points out on its website:

      E-cigarettes have not been fully studied so consumers currently don’t know:

      • the potential risks of  e-cigarettes when used as intended,
      • how much nicotine or other potentially harmful chemicals are being inhaled during use, or
      • if there are any benefits associated with using these products.

      Additionally, it is not known if e-cigarettes may lead young people to try other tobacco products, including conventional cigarettes, which are known to cause disease and lead to premature death.

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      Coping: With the Oily World of Woo-Woo

      Sometimes, I mean like every so often, you have to look at coincidences and ask “What does it all mean?”

      Yesterday morning ( 8 AM) I posted an article for Peoplenomics subscribers called “What Ever Happened to “Peak Oil?””  Pretty interesting article – and it supports what both comments here (and from Oilman2) have been saying: Peak Oil isn’t gone, it’s just a jagged peak.

      So there I was, outside, working on the Never-ending Project (the sun porch) and who calls?

      A man identifying himself as being with an oil exploration outfit who wants me to sign off (for $10 bucks an acre) permission for the company he reps to come through and set off seismic charges to see if there’s oil under the property.

      Of course there is.

      1.  This is East Texas which has already been mapped pretty well.

      2.  I mentioned a couple of years ago that we have friends who pioneered an electromagnetic pulse system of oil exploration so we already know what’s “down there.”

      Well, now, this poses certain “difficulties.”  I mean yeah, sure, it’s a kind of an odd thing:  Write article and within 8-hours, here comes a seismic crew.

      But the difficulties go beyond the World of Woo-Woo (WoWW) come-a-knocking. 

      We didn’t buy our little place in the woods to be disturbed.  In Texas, if you’re a surface rights owner (we are) the holder of the subsurface/mineral rights does have the right to develop their property.

      That said, they have to do so in a minimally invasive way and compensate the surface rights owner for any damage.

      Since our property is a tree farm, if any trees are cut down, then that would be an economic loss for us. 

      But here’s the delicate part:  I’m an extra class ham radio operator and I don’t take kindly to the quiet enjoyment of my hobby being disrupted.  And I operate (at times and as conditions warrant) at power levels (on all the HF bans) that go up to 1,8-29 MHz. 

      And yes, the property is posted with signs that inform people that RF fields here may at time exceed the maximum recommended for the general public. 

      And that’s the problem:  Electric blasting caps.

      Typically, these kinds of seismic studies are done using ammonium nitrate explosives placed about 25-feet down a 3-inch diameter hole.  Then a web of wiring is stretched out and off goes the shot. 

      So besides the “normal” issues of surface owners, I’ve got a tree farm and I have radio equipment which may interfere with electric blasting materials.

      Is there an alternative?  Oh course.  There are various “thumpers” that can be used, along with the new electronic pulse technology.

      But this is one of those situations where I have to trust someone besides George:  So I will have my (local) attorney send them a letter informing them that I don’t take kindly to disruptions, potential damage to property (as had been experienced many places) and I sure wouldn’t want to have any blasting accidents.

      Sometimes, it’s better to let an attorney do the talking.  Not all the time, but now and then…

      What Cost of Living: Canadian Style

      From a reader out on the great flatlands who’s enjoying the “negligible change in the cost of living” than Canucks hear from their hype-monster, just like we get here:

      So as per usual we are being told that our inflation up here is negligible.

      Here’s my list of negligible

      Gas is now over $6 a gallon

      Packs of cookies have dropped 50 grams out of the packages and are still the same price as the 350 packs

      Cheese Whiz was $10.39 a 900 gram jar.  I bought it on sale last year for $5

      This is just a skim of the increasing food prices around here.

      Apartments are over $1000 for a two bedroom

      Cheapest crappy war time house is over $250,000

      Minimum wage is $10 an hour for comparison.

      Apparently, our reader has a serious addiction problem:  Eating. Near as I can figure it, governments have worked out “quantitative squeezing” to cure us all of that one.

      Speaking of the World Oil Picture

      Got a nice lead from a subscriber in response to Wednesday’s report:

      George,

      This is related to your post today on Peoplenomics. It’s an article describing talks between Gazprom and Turkey about expanding the capacity of the pipeline to Turkey.

      Notice the name of the Deputy Chairman of the Gazprom Management Committee … Alexander Medvedev. 

      I believe I saw a quote by someone in Congress saying Obama is playing marbles while Putin is playing chess.

      I can’t swear to Putin playing chess, or not.  But I am bright enough to figure out that our “Golfer in Chief” is just playing a round…

      Example:  The president is skipping the funeral of an aunt to play golf, reports The Daily Caller.

      Oh…and if you’re looking for a real conspiracy to dig your teeth into this morning, how about this one:  Why is it the “Obama Golf Counter” site hasn’t been updated since February, huh?

      But except for the occasional mention (in articles like this one) the press seems to be giving our favorite duffer a pass.

      On the OTHER Weight Loss Program

      While I’m presently at a new, lower, weight this morning, a note from Doc Zero came floating across the desk:

      Saw your link to the Mega One Meals.  They look pretty good. I have read The Gabrielle Method years ago after he was on Coast to Coast.  Didn’t help me lose weight.  But in the last couple of months I heard one nutritionist on Coast (Who’s name I can’t remember) say, the way to lose weight was easy.  Take your weight in lbs.

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      Peoplenomics: What Ever Happened to “Peak Oil?”

      10-years to dark is about it. Maybe less. By my reckoning, depending on the resource wars. Your not hearing about it because some greedy bastards are planning to bend you over, but good on the way to the reality of Peak Oil. Peak Oil is real, so if you’re patient, what is going on with the stock market is just marking time until really bad impacts of a modest economic recovery show up.

      Money Management: This is a Casino

      You ever walk into a casino?  There are carefully controlled aspects to it you seldom think about.  But, just as one example, there is never a clock around.  That’s because (for obvious reasons) casinos don’t want you knowing what time it is.

      Similarly, in the financial markets, the little matter of “What Time is It?” is of more than passing importance.

      If, for example, the stock market is headed for new highs, which some of the data would suggest (like the stronger than expected leading indicators), the people who run the markets (the commercials) would love nothing better than to load the boat ahead of time – buying when stocks are cheap.  That way, when stocks run up, they will sell at higher prices and keep the casino going.

      On the other hand, if the crap is really going to hit the fan in eastern Europe,; then there would be a massive re-ordering of the world’s economy and that would run the other way for casino owners.  They would be dumping stocks, going to cash and letting the public take the bath.  They’d wait patiently for a good bottom to be put in, and then buy again.

      Normally, the Long Wave is pretty clear.  We have been in a period of declining interest rates since about 1980’s, so with all parties, things are going to have to end some time.

      The problem is When?

      We’ve been following a particular “replay” of markets in our Trading Model over on our subscribers-only Peoplenomics side of things.  And without giving away the whole plot, we can see a scenario where one or two and maybe even three more weeks of up markets are possible

      But as explained in yesterday’s report here, Vlad Putin has a couple of firecrackers strapped to his behind, so I’m cautiously looking at adding to a short position going forward.

      The market – somewhat conflicted – has edged back into a long position in our model, but the size of the reading is not very convincing.  There’s a lack of conviction developing.

      That might improve later this morning when a couple of housing numbers coming in and tomorrow we get the new home sales figures.  But the rest of the week – save Dural Orders – isn’t very exciting, unless the Michigan Sentiment Indicator turns your crank.

      Sure, imports are up (and it may be bad for the balance of trade) but as we explained to subscribers recently, the increases in foreign military sales will likely offset some of that, regardless of the karmic implications.

      If your life savings is on the bullish side of things, and if your idea of “long-term investing” is two weeks, then you should be in good shape.

      Just remember casinos don’t have clocks.  And the reason for it is so you won’t think about how late it’s getting.  And in economic long wave theory, closing time comes along pretty soon.  It might be a couple of years, but again we ask rhetorically:  If you had money in the market in 1927 or 1928…even ‘29….how close do you think you could have plated it then and what do you think it’s any easier a decision now?

      Dow futures are up 9 whole points.  Got the time, buddy?

      About Those Firecrackers

      Veep Joe is off whipping up the folks in Ukraine saying the US will support them.  Presumably, this will mean more than passing around cookies, but we shall see.  As stated earlier, “exercises” with 150 soldiers are not likely to scare Putin.

      Since we just got done last week, putting in our payments to the FedGov, you may be wondering how much money the US government has piled into the Ukraine bet:  Well, according to his article in the Kyiv Post, “Nuland says US spent $5-billion to back democracy in Ukraine.”

      Ures truly, being dense, and all thought backing democracy would involve elections.  But to be clear, the amount admitted by former Bush turned Obama Stater, Victoria Nuland, that’s the tab since 1991.

      Why, that’s only $15.97 per American – and spread out since 1991, it’s all budget dust, right?

      Of course, its more like $35 per worker, since retired don’t pay as much tax and kids, well, they’ll eat you out of house and home, not earning their deductions.  But it’s something to think about.

      Just put it on the list of other “change” including Gitmo (still there), Stan (still there), keep your own doctor (uh….)….

      When the list of promises broken gets long enough, you end up with militias talking tough, but I SUPPOSE you figured that out by now.

      Grab Some More

      But, in case you haven’t, keep an eye on the Bunglers of Land Management who are now trying to scoop up another piece of property – this one in North Texas.

      In this latest fiasco, BLM is trying to rewrite generations of actually deeded land.

      Ron Paul’s comments are worth seeing, if you haven’t.

      More after this.

      Maudlin America

      Continuing a theme from a recent Peoplenomics report, we can’t help but be dismayed at the number of people buy in to stories that fill important air time and don’t call politicians to account by asking hard, obvious, and not “pre-filtered” questions of newsmakers.

      Instead, the Mainstream media is full of useless stories that are heart still pullers but nevertheless will have little (likely NO) impact of your life, or those of your offspring going forward.

      Just, for example, the latest string of stories out of Korea don’t mean jack:  You weren’t really going to take a Korean ferry anywhere in the next, oh, hundred years or so, were you?

      Or, take the matter of MH370.  This one is dragging out longer than a bad TV show with no plot and the obvious need for “filler” material, since news departments have doubled down with huge bets that those trip expense reports will be justified by live action of the first body being recovered, if it ever is…

      Definition: “Maudlin: self-pityingly or tearfully sentimental, often through drunkenness.”

      ‘Cept instead of drunkenness, how about through that feel-good pill haze?  Tell your doctor.

      Making Up Law

      Oh, sure, there’s LAW on the books that say illegals in America get deported.  But care to guess who is making up WHEN to enforce the law, pretending the rest of the time it is NOT THE LAW?

      You go read this story and figure it out. 

      See William Chambliss’ “Vice, Corruption, Bureaucracy, and Power” (circa 1971).  What works at the city level (where I covered it as a cop shop reporter and the federal grand juries) seems to have grown up and gone national.  Now seems to be untouchable.

      We’re either a country or full-time, always equally applied law, or we’re corrupt.  It really is THAT simple.

      Tolerance policies are selective enforcement dressed up in pretty clothes for political hacks.  “That law doesn’t apply to me…I’m special.”  Then you ain’t in America, by the law books I’ve read.  But that only works if the Courts aren’t packed…

      Why isn’t the press calling bullshit on this and calling people out on this with questions like “Aren’t you selectively breaking the law here?”  “Where is the right to break law delegated to you, sir?”  FMTT.

      Seen equality around anywhere? WTFU

      Over Russia

      The US and Russia are flying spy missions over one another’s countries.  Gee, that sure makes me feel safe, doesn’t it you?

      Lights Out

      Note from warhammer:

      George,

      What exactly might the PTB be prepping John Q. Citizen for with the release of this bit of ‘duh’ EMP news.

      <http://watchdog.org/138940/solar-flare-emp/>

      From burned retinas, blindness and scorched skin for those struck by the sheer awe of a nuclear HAB (high altitude burst), a “new sun” for all intents and purposes, who are drawn to stare at the fireball for too long, to the frying of every non-hardened circuit followed by months to years of trying to survive without power, gas and water, the ramifications would surely be civilization altering (and for many, life ending).

      On the other hand, perhaps NASA expects a grand CME on the scale of the 1859 Carrington Event, similarly sending the sun-facing side of the planet back into the pre-electric agricultural age. Were such a CME to hit N. America, most people lack the land, free flowing water, seeds, tools and general know how to provide food for themselves and their families. Millions would certainly perish.

      Whether for a HAB or a CME, the news release is definitely most curious. Ure thoughts?

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