May I present this morning’s brain-teaser to rock you into another stellar week of average performance?  Go ahead…try to guess what E.O.Q.W.D is…

OK, then, time’s up!

End of Quarter Window Dressing

I have this crackpot theory that says in addition to short run-ups before major holidays, the stock market may also have a tendency to pop a bit (like late last week) and maybe carrying over into today, as the en d of quarter bonus marks are set.  Run that Dow puppy up 80 at the open!

If this crackpot theory holds true, we may then see a run down to lower levels later this week as the “commercials” drive down the price of stocks in order to buy lower before selling higher sometime this summer. 

At least, maybe.

About the only news due out today should be the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index.

Tomorrow – which should be a National Holiday, being April Fools and all (we qualify, right?) – will see construction spending and auto sales, but the real point of getting up the next four morning will be to arrive safely at the Friday morning release of the unemployment figures.

So no, a major earthquake has not shoveled L.A. into the Pacific yet, and the Yellowstone caldera  is still cauldering (or whatever it is calderas do),

But this morning’s first coffee-induced brain-spasm is to view the week as a race between competing shaky outcomes:  Will the market go?  Or, will the earthquakes?

Japan and China were both up overnight.  German and French markets are sleeping late, but the kneeler’s deal is up a bit, too.

About the only cloud on the horizon is the prospect of another Dust Bowl, like the 1930’s.  There’s been a lot of dust blowing into Texas from out west, New Mexico, and so forth, and the possibility of climate driving food prices through the roof looks like almost a sure bet, now.

Rather than worry about this, why not worry about who said the $3-trillion in “fake bonds”: entering the Vatican Bank this morning were really fake? It’s make a hell of a TV show or movie. 

Or, how about them Swiss, naming 8 banks (the usual suspects) in a Forex manipulation probe?  Time to get out the whitewash, again,…

Climate Baiting Continues

Yes, the earth’s climate is changing.  But it has always been changing.  It’s just that we’ve never had good enough communications about it to turn it into a cult/religion.  And it’s not being widely reported how former Greenpeace insider Patrick Moore laid out conflicting data about climate to a Senate committee last week.

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Coping: Learning Your Learning Style

I’m going to tell you how to learn ANYTHING, but we’re going to start with a discussion of ham radio to begin with.  So if haven’t picked up a ham radio license, pay attention! 

My friends Gaye (survival woman) and Sheldon (survival hubby) up at www.backdoorsurvival.com are planning to pick up their ham radio licenses.  The reason for more focus on this is that this weekend’s outburst of earthquakes (L.A., Yellowstone, and the Oklahoma shimmy) has moved it up their priority list from a “fixing to get ready” to a “time to get ‘er done” item.

They’ve both got the ubiquitous Baofeng UV5RA Ham Two Way Radio 136-174/400-480 MHz Dual-Band Transceiver (Black) radios which are great entry radios.  And programming software and, and…..

The problem is, however, that the programming booklet that comes with the radio is a football-field away from simple.  This is not an uncommon problem with ham radio equipment.

Over the years, admittedly more than 50 of them, I started off on three simple knobs on the radio receiver (volume, Morse code beat note, and tuning) and on my first crystal-controlled (single frequency) radio, there was a tuning knob, loading knob, and an on/off Morse key.  That was it.

Nowadays, the manual for my Kenwood 590S runs about 80-pages and explains how to use umpteen levels of digital signal processing, the radio’s built-in receive and transmit equalizers, shaping of the Morse waveform, which antenna port to use…and loads more.  Nearly 50 controls if you count the push-buttons.  And you should:  Most of them control more than one function on the radio, depending on if you make it a short button press, or hold a button in more than one second to call some other function.

Between her professional commitments (real work) and her web site (more real work) Gaye’s got just about zero time to sit down with a Mojito and just “spin dials” for a few hours to “get the hang” of her radio.  That’s how many people like to learn, but time just doesn’t always show up when needed…

Even if she did have the time, there may not be much “hang-getting” since the quality of manuals on many pieces of imported equipment only make sense if you understand current trends in menu design to control the microprocessors in modern radios.

Incomprehensible manuals are, sorry to say, a plague of life.

Even really great simplifications of the Baofeng manual (like this one) can be daunting.

What to do to speed up the learning process?

I realized (from our chit-chats this weekend) that there may be a lot of people who are in the same boat:  The $30-35 for the radio wasn’t a big deal, but the programming and licensing?  And how much time is this going to take because time ain’t infinite!  .

So I suggested that they (Gaye and Shel) read the outstanding first license study guide by Dan Romanchik, KB6NU, which can be found online here.  Free. 

My son (KF7OCD) has used this with a couple of Technician class license sessions he’s taught and seriously, if you just read the material, your odds of passing are about 90% the first time around.  It isn’t really fast…it just take however long it takes to read 50-pages.

Now let’s talk about learning styles:

As a former postsecondary administrator, the way to learn depends on person.  People who like music, poetry, and are good writers, are called the “right-brain” people.  Theory appeals to them.  They read novels.

The “left-brainers” are people who love math, computer programming, and the hard science of things.  Theory isn’t so interesting as formulas and procedures, to them. They read more nonfiction.

If you’re like Gaye & Shel,  what will likely work best is to sample a little this, a little that. 

To do this, read the study guide, but have the radio nearby so when you get to a concept, you can look at the radio and maybe there will be something about it in the manual. If you don’t feel compelled to pick up the radio, no worries.

Depending on which way your brain works, you may lean a little more toward formula, or a little the other way into theory.  But, the best possible learning is when both sides of the brain have something to work on.  There are tons of learning styles:  Tactile, aural, visual, mixed…pick those that suit you.

Oh, this may be why construction crews listen to country music on the job site:  Feed both sides of brain.

Elaine and I were working on house addition construction again this weekend and putting in furring strips for drywall is brain killing work.  So we fed the other side of the brain (music, light jazz) while working.

Anyone who doesn’t feed both sides ends up being unbalanced, but in some professions that works.  This is where engineers come from.

But at times of peak concentration (landing an airplane, doing brain surgery) music off, total focus of both sides of brain is best.  Banging 2-by-4’s (after you’ve framed a few houses and can eyeball a 5/8th’s inch cut) is less so, hence the music.

Where do you get the incentive?

Set a deadline for yourself.  I won’t tell you when Mr & Mrs Survival will go take their ham test, but you can hit the American Radio Relay League website.  Toss in your Zip code, and you should be able to find something.

If not, look for a local radio club and just show up at one of their meetings.  Ham radio people are warm and friendly.  Ask whatever questions you may have, but bear in mind that because of the hobby, many ham radio types will answer the simplest questions with incredibly long answers.

These will invariably be close to perfect, but they call into the “Ask him what time it is, and he built me a watch factory” category.

Deadline setting is critical.  Every person I know who is successful (annual incomes over $300,000, or so) runs their life to deadlines.  Danger:  You can become a control-freak, but if you have deadlines and meet them, life tends to pay out bigger jackpots.  Because you get stuff done.

What’s Not in the Study Guide

If you’ve completely forgotten high school physics, the part of the study guide that can be most intimidating is the beginning where Ohm’s Law and such are covered.  Here’s my 1-minute workaround for that:

Not in the ham book, but this may help understand electricity:

Think of electricity flow through wire as being like water flowing in a garden hose.

Electromotive force (Volts) is like the pressure in the hose.

Current (the amount of energy flowing)  (measured in Amps) is like the volume of water flowing in the hose.

Volts times Amps = power (in Watts).  Watts is like Work being done. Just like the  water coming out of the end of a hose can do work like turn a water wheel.  More water (current) or more pressure (volts) turns a bigger wheeel doing more work.

The basic equations assume you know:

Volts is abbreviated “E”

Current is abbreviated “I”

Power is abbreviated “P”

And Resistance (in Ohms) is abbreviated “R”

The first rule is the rule of P=I*E   (pie)

Power [ P ] equals current [ I ] times voltage [ E ]

You hair dryer  is 120 volts.  We know (from the label)  it is 1,500 watts.  So P/E=I.

By substitution then, 1500/120 =  12.5 amps.  Which is why a 15 amp circuit breaker doesn’t pop when you dry your hair!

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Tectonic Spaghetti & Quake Parmesan

Grady and I don’t usually burden you with mentions of earthquakes, except when I dream about them in advance, and such, as was the case last Thursday preceding the L.A. quake,

But things have become a lot more interesting since in just a few moments ago there was a 4.8 magnitude quake that went off up in the area east-northeast of West Yellowstone, Montana.

  1. 37km (23mi) ENE of West Yellowstone, Montana
  2. 105km (65mi) SSE of Bozeman, Montana
  3. 138km (86mi) NE of Rexburg, Idaho
  4. 178km (111mi) NE of Ammon, Idaho
  5. 228km (142mi) SSE of Helena, Montana

And just a few minutes earlier, our war-gaming friend “warhammer” had noted the www.spaceweather.com report of an X-class flare that may be earth-impacting:

With all the LA ‘moving and shaking’ going on, it will be interesting to see how this rare electro-magnetic solar event manifests itself on the plate of tectonic spaghetti lying beneath the City of Angels.

I sadly agree.  According to the Solar Influences Data analysis center, the fun began with this series early Saturday…

NOAA AR 2017 produced two M class flares (M2.0 peak 19:18 UT and M2.6 peak 23:51 UT on March 28). The flares were associated with two halo CMEs, the first one with speeds of 412km/s (first seen by LASCO-C2 at 20:00 UT) and the second one 557 km/s (at 23:58 UT).

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FutureCrock: How Modular Manufacturing Rips Us

I’m not the brightest light in the chandelier, but as the future is coming evermore into focus I’m starting to find my son’s pessimistic/live-for-now future may be one of the better coping mechanisms for the time ahead over the next three or four years. Think of it as descending into an economic black hole. Except this one, instead of spitting you out into a different Universe, just grinds you up and that’s that. And if that’s not enough to sour your weekend mood, how about the phone call I had from my friend who jets about the world with the PowersThatBe. “You have some clients in related areas…

Personal Expenditures and Delusions

This morning’s big headline, other than debris search roulette, may be the Personal Consumption and Expenditures report that was just released.

Personal income increased $47.7 billion, or 0.3 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $42.3 billion, or 0.3 percent, in February, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $30.8 billion, or 0.3 percent. In January, personal income increased $41.3 billion, or 0.3 percent, DPI increased $40.3 billion, or 0.3 percent, and PCE increased $20.0 billion, or 0.2 percent, based on revised estimates.

OK, you may be wondering if personal income was up, how come you didn’t have any more spare coin jingling around.  Damn fine question that…be sure and submit it in advance of our next news conference to see if it gets approved.  Continuing with this bouquet of delights:

Personal current taxes increased $5.3 billion in February, compared with an increase of $1.2 billion in January. Disposable personal income (DPI) — personal income less personal current taxes — increased $42.3 billion, or 0.3 percent, in February, compared with an increase of $40.3 billion, or 0.3 percent, in January.

Personal saving — DPI less personal outlays — was $544.5 billion in February, compared with $535.9 billion in January. The personal saving rate — personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income — was 4.3 percent in February, compared with 4.2 percent in January.

Somewhere about here, we should stop so you can wipe the coffee – which ought to be spewing out your nose – off your face; joining those tears of laughter as you roll helplessly on the floor. 

The Dow is set to open up 35 points and about the only way to improve on this morning’s jovial economic data would be a tooth extraction without anesthetic, as I see it.

Still Searching

Like I said yesterday:  Me? I’m skeptical on this whole search thing going on out in the oceans off pretty much anywhere, now.

Reports that “objects” have been sighted need to be taken with either an aspirin, Adderall, or oxy, depending on what gets you through. I still hold to sobriety, but the headline machine is making that harder every day.  Speaking of which…

Drugs and Death

There’s a report out this morning that “Anti-Anxiety Drugs are tied to higher Mortality.”

Just between you and me, I’ve always been suspicious of “mortality” studied, since everyone is going to die anyway, know what I mean?  Oxy before skydiving doesn’t make sense, but maybe Adderall before brain surgery….well, dead is dead, is all I’m saying.

What helps me most is pretending I’m an extraterrestrial and just showed up with no opinions about nothing and pretending I’m watching an ant farm. Still trying to build the anti-gravity machine to get home…

There, all better now.

More after this……


Zeus on Awakening from “Pet Madness”?

A report this morning that cats can infect humans with tuberculosis could have far-reaching impacts, reports our Senior Editor, Zeus the Cat.

ZtC, who is already on half rations for failing to keep a rat from moving into the air conditioning system of Elaine’s old Lexus, says to keep an eye on the whole pet industry.  “That’s cat food, dog food, veterinarian supplies, the whole lot of it,” he purred.

People don’t really need pets, when you think about it,” he continued.  “The cats don’t mouse like they did in the good old days when our relationship with humans made more sense.  We domesticated them because most humans are barely house-broken and they attract vermin like nothing else.  Toss in the dangerous disease that pregnant moms can get from the kitty litter and you’ve got an air-tight case.”

“Yes, but if people give up on cats, what about dogs?” Ures truly asked.

Why would you have other disease risks and the biting issues with dogs, I mean voluntarily,” he meowed.  “And what is the Anchorage Daily News doing reporting on a sharp increase in dog bites in Arizona?  Can’t the locals handle the truth down in the Valley of the Grays?”

“Your job around here is safe, kitty.

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Coping: A Column Full of Sticky Notes

This morning I would like to do something out of the ordinary – at least for me:  Something of a “core dump” listing the various things that occupy our plans around here…

Visually, this is different from the usual headlines, but it’s much closer to how our brains work – a collection of sticky notes in no particular order, but all needing to be dealt with…

Two More Ads Will Appear

I am working at putting a few Google Ads up on my website.  Yes, I know the one at the top of today’s article is too big, and yes, I will get it fixed this weekend.  Reason:  Cost of websites is not going down, looks like.  I’m ridiculously happy with www.emwd.com, but the cost of a virtual private server, extra memory, and so forth, is less than free.  Hence probably two more ads will be getting set this weekend.  I try to keep it down, however.

Speaking of Websites

Is the guy who wanted to buy the www.nationaldreamcenter.come project still interested?  A couple of new dreams have been posted – I need to approve them so check there later today…

Travel Plans

Elaine and I are planning to attend this year’s conference of the American Academy for Anti-Aging Medicine in Orlando May 15-17.  I will be doing a couple of Peoplenomics reports on what goes on there…and yes, now that I’m north of 65 does have something to do with it.  I want to make sure to be a winner, not loser, in Social Security Roulette.

The conference is where the real docs with real expertise go meet to figure out how to live better and longer.

Quake Spotting

With this week’s earthquake dreams, a number of readers, especially Michael down in the Portland area, have been eyeing Mt. Hood with some suspicion:

George, First I read about the earthquakes on Mt Hood, 60 miles from my home, then I read about your dream of an earthquake.  You didn’t happen to see a mountain also by any chance, did you?

Recall, too, the 6.8 on March 10 off the California coast near the Oregon border (50 or so miles from Eureka, CA).  At that time the webicorders for Mt. Hood and others for the Cascade mountains in OR and WA showed some of the largest events I have ever seen on them.

Not much in the way of action on this – remind people to have three or four weeks of water, two weeks of food…yet no one will listen…

Expanding Planet Theory

“Or, is the decline due to the reduced solar output (..) which slows the planetary expansion, which in turn closes down quake activity when the Sun goes out to lunch.”

A contracting object can get cracks in its surface just as an expanding one can.

Unless you mean there can only ever be expansion, and at this stage there is very little expansion going on?

That, from reader Gary is a good point:  I think that global cooling will cause quakes, too.  But we would be in a “change-over period” where we get a lunch break between too hot (expansion) quakes and too cold (contraction) quakes.  Just thinking out loud.  My degrees in geology seems to be stuck in my printer…

Deep Thinking From Ecuador

It’s always fun to get notes from Bruce down in Ecuador.  He’s got a fine way of looking at the world, including this gem of a synopsis of US foreign policy:

I am always amazed at how Americans so casually believe their deservability to literally spend millions to keep themselves entertained, or should I say distracted while the rest of the world struggles to get a part of the other 40% of the world’s resources not consumed in the USA.

Boomers love to say “well I worked for it and earned it.” That is total bullshit. We created a system in which we became the privileged so we could rip off everybody else in the world.

Tell me one job you had where there was not someone else in the world doing the same thing, working harder than you were, but probably making a tenth of what you were.

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Markets: A “Social Decline” in Motion?

Peoplenomics readers will remember our December 18, 2013 edition where I called into question whether social media would be around any longer than CB radio, Pet Rocks, or Hoola Hoops.  Of course, all three are still around today.  It’s just that they are no longer manias like they were, each, once upon a time.

My concern about “social” was simple:  I wondered whether it was much of a business model because it’s time-circular.  In other words, there’s huge growth on  the front, and the potential for huge audience shrinkage on the back end.  But there’s also not much revenue up front – and that does come on the back end.

When you step back from social, companies were urged to bring their customers to social web sites, and now that many have done exactly that, what we see are the social outfits turning around and charging the very people (like bloggers and companies) who bought into the social mythos.  And yes, this is why I don’t post to my FB page every day – because the number of people who get sent links to my site is throttled – unless I pay money.

I don’t suppose you’d care to ventURE who is a cheap bastard, would you?

OK, so fast forward to the market reversal yesterday.

Facebook was down almost 7%.

Now, I’m not going to be so stoopid (sice) as to tell you this is the “End of Social Media!  Run – everyone flee from the Street!

On the other hand, I may point you at the ETF for various social outfits (The Global X Social Media Index ETF, symbol SOCL) makes an interesting chart to look at over here (click on the one-year view, thanks to Yahoo).

When you look at it, there was a low back in late January and – if my eyes aren’t too bloodshot this morning – it looks to me like that low has been taken out.  And that may lead us back to the range below where SOCL was back in December.

No, I’m not saying Facebook is bad (come on, do you think I’m that stupid?).  But I am saying that social media depends on businesses and bloggers continuing to be too lazy to put discussions and effort into keeping their customer bases inside their own ecosystems (web sites).  Once they are migrated (for company or blogger news) to a social site, the social(ists) will then “rent them back their own audience.”

It’s either astounding business acumen beyond my ken or we have the dumbest executive tribes in the world.  Your call…I think you figured my take on it.

This is patently foolish, as I see it, but remember I don’t have millions of dollars, just millions of brain cells.

Oh, and sure, Google has Google+.  But when I look at Google’s financial data here, what I see it a 6.51 price to sales ratio.  And this is for a company with driverless cars, a kick ass search dominance, and social.  Did I leave out robotics and a vision of the future?

When I look at Facebook’s key statistics, what I see is a 21.02 price to sales ratio over here, and they don’t have the robots, search engine or driverless fleet as kickers.

No, I’m not screaming “Ure told you, dammit!” like I did in September of 1999 when my article Death by Dot Coms warned “The End is near for the Internet Bubble.”  That’ll come…I’m patient on this stuff.

I was way early on that call (5-months) so maybe in June or July we’ll revisit this and see how well this prediction works out.  For now, though, I’m more skeptical of social than ever – and I wonder about the IQ of America’s corporate leadership which has been driving customers away from their own websites.  Twits, if you know what I mean…  

If there was an inter-corporate API developed, so companies could share cross platforms without “renting their customers back” social could have a heart driven through it in months.  And if I can think of it, I figure someone else is already on that path and building it.

Meantime, if you’re looking for bogeymen to blame for the pending decline, how about the fact that lots of home equity loans are coming due and that may cause, say regulators – something akin to payment shock…

Gold Drops, Dead Cats Bounce

Since we’re no adjacent to the end of the month, gold is having the tar kicked out of it.  And yes, this may be the beginning of a move down to the $1,000 range as I see it.  The stock market is set for modestly higher gains at the open.

And that gets us to…

The Latest *(Incomprehensible) GDP Data

Assuming you know what a circular reference is in a spreadsheet, I always look forward to the monthly report on GDP (just out) from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.,

The reason is that rather than give a simple number on GDP, there’s an actual number (stashed with the the Ark of the Covenant, somewhere under a moving blanket in a back room somewhere) but damned if it doesn’t take forever to find it.

Since you’re on the bean this morning, maybe this will make more sense to you, than it does to me:

Real gross domestic product — the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States — increased at an annual rate of 2.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2013 (that is, from the third quarter to the fourth quarter), according to the “third” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

In the third quarter, real GDP increased 4.1 percent. The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the “second” estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was 2.4 percent. With this third estimate for the fourth quarter, the general picture of economic growth remains largely the same; personal consumption expenditures (PCE) was larger than previously estimated, while private investment in inventories and in intellectual property products were smaller than previously estimated (see “Revisions” on page 3).

The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from PCE, exports, and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by negative contributions from federal government spending and residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

The deceleration in real GDP growth in the fourth quarter reflected a downturn in private inventory investment, a larger decrease in federal government spending, a downturn in residential fixed investment, and a deceleration in state and local government spending that were partly offset by accelerations in PCE and in exports, a deceleration in imports, and an acceleration in nonresidential fixed investment.

Actually, I found the GDP number.  It’s  $17.090 trillion.  And, since the Fed has $4-trillion in sacks of collateralized whatever they ares, stashed out back (under a different moving blanket with the Ark which is now powered by the Holy GDP hidden number) this simply means the Fed has a call on 23.4% of America’s annual work product.

Do you ever wonders if they’ll ever close on it?  Let me speak to you frankly in press release-ese:

That’s not a moot question around here, since my IQ is 21% of 13% of my home address, divided by 17% of my social security number times 92% of my least used MasterCard, minus the second derivative of my Visa card balance as of March 21, less the price of a can of cat food plus the last two digits of my Chevron card, divided into my tax refund.  (The correct answer is 142, so no smarty, tell me my balance on March 21…)

God I* love writing press releases!  I could be a press release writer for BEA, too!  Quick, where the number for dial-a-Fed-Gig?  You could stand the break; I could use the dough.

More after this…and say, here’s an ad that fits the news today:

Who You Gonna Trust?

Texas Senator John Cornyn is getting plenty of ink this morning for saying that the democorps press to offer limited press immunity to named media outlets is just a gov-scam to license who is media and who is not.

Besides, he correctly notes, the Constitution is quite clear on the matter, so what’s to fix?

Well, the democrats have other ideas and this gets me down to one of the more important fundamental bits of research I’ve done in a while:  A simple spreadsheet of how many members – of which party – are listed in this data on who (of which party) has been convicted of felonies in office.

I call this my “Crooks by Party by Presidential Term Index

How there are some talk radio bloviators who can hold up Reagan and a deity given the number of convictions (both sides of the aisle) is just amazing.  Am I the only one who remember Iran –Contra?

Before celebrating Obama, remember the clock is still running and I have more faith in politicians being more loyal to their own interests than those of their constituencies than most.

Obama disapproval rating is at a new all-time high.  Apparently, I may be more data driven than most.  Seems to me the crime rate among politicians isn’t that different than the general population, though I will grant you its for high-brow stuff, mainly.

Does this have something to do with why the Golfer in Chief is at the Vatican for a meeting?

I Fall To Pieces, Dept.

More than 300 of them, says the Thai government, based on their satellite.  Me?  Still skeptical.

Gone to Pot

10,000 ganj convictions in Colorado could be overturned.  And this will, no doubt ripple into criminal justice spending down the road.

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Coping: WoWW: With Another Odd Dream

We all get them, from time to time:  Dreams that you wake up from and wonder “What did that mean?”  It comes as a standard part of the World of Woo-Woo (the WoWW).

Over the years, I’ve slowly been racking up dreams that have emotional and predictive content.  Dreaming about my son wearing an orange jumpsuit and learning later that was the jail clothing for one of his “big adventures” in life – repelling down the side of a 12 story building without bothering to ask permission.

Or, like the time sailing far from civilization and dreaming about one of my daughters being wrapped in a green flag with a spot on it.  Only to learn a day and a half later than she’d had an emergency appendectomy (green surgical sheets) and a spot of blood on it (black) while I was totally unreachable.

Then there was my odd dream about a fire/murder on an oil platform and a place called “the Wall” and posted on the old UrbanSurvival site 18-hours before the Gulf of Mexico disaster.

And there was the more recent case where I dreamed about a plane sliding off the end of a runway with 146 people aboard – unharmed – and a week later, a plane with 149 aboard slid off the end of a runway up in Pennsylvania.  Sometimes the dream content shows up promptly (present to a few hours later) and other times, it can take a week to right days. 

So, yeah, I know sometimes dreams are nothing more than the brain’s internet blender going off, but others times they can have predictive content.  And this morning’s is just strange enough to be worth mentioning.

It begins with me being on the second story of a house.  The house if built on the side of a hill – a very steep one – and the house begins to move back and forth in a generally north-south direction.  But there’s a bit of an arc to the swing such that every time the house moves back and forth (a distance that was huge – I’d estimate it at 12-13 feet) the leading end of the arc would smack into the side of the hill.

I knew the house wouldn’t last long. There was a sense of worry about people in the house, but not a lot of

It has been a good long while since the world has had a 7.0 quake – and my sense upon waking was that a Big One is just ahead.

Still, there are usually other indicators that come with big quakes (like the Japan-sized quakes):  I often get very intense feelings of “the earthquake tireds.”  Being a super high-energy person I really notice this things so when I get an overwhelming sense of tiredness that drives me to the closest bed for 8-16 hours and I’m otherwise healthy (BP normal, all that), it usually means a quake. 

The tiredness usually comes a day or three ahead of events.  And things like the dreams, at least in the case of that Pennsylvania jet, that was 7 or 8 days out. 

I’ll let you know if I get super tired (no, I don’t fly our airplane under these conditions) I’ll let you know. 

The main other observation – that I have in passing – is that I don’t remember any Big quakes in a good while.  Readers Tony R, who has generously run out data since 1963 in the past – which has helped us see the big picture on things, has been too busy of late to make data runs. 

I’ll try to put the “strong-arm” on him and see if we can maybe talk him into doing a run at the end of this month’s data:  My sense is that 6.0 to 7+ quakes feel like they have been in a massive decline.

And that leads to an intriguing line of inquiry:  Is the decline (if I’m not imagining it) because the plates are locking up (a fine thing, indeed, until, that is until they unlock and all hell breaks loose).  Or, is the decline due to the reduced solar output (there went global warming which was most solar-driven) which slows the planetary expansion, which in turn closes down quake activity when the Sun goes out to lunch.

We’ll keep our ear to the ground…so to speak.

Where Do You Want to Die?

Even  if you’re not a Peoplenomics subscriber, one of the reasons we keep such close tabs on real estate both in Texas and Washington (the state) is that Elaine made a remark a while back “I don’t want to die out here…” referring to our place in the outback.

Of course I asked, in return, “Where is it, exactly you want to die, because I can’t think of ANYWHERE!” 

She’s still thinking on that one.

A Peoplenomics subscriber picked up the question and passed this one:

“I caught your comment about Mrs. Ure concerned about where she wants to spend her last moments in this world.  I’m a retired soldier and been to a bunch of places and saw my share of the world.  Bottom line is everywhere is pretty much like everywhere else except for the landscaping and scenery.  Home is where the heart is and our hearts build our homes.  I’ve given the last breath thing a lot of thought over the years and I concluded it’s not where I die that’s important but what the scenery looks like.  Personally, I prefer a field of flowers or a nice meadow.  I won’t be thinking too much about the temperature at the time.  That will come a few minutes later and I won’t have much control over it.  Joe”

Sometimes I wonder if – when people of a certain age (north of 65) start to thinking about moving “closer to the kids” whether they’re just trying to move to a different location so Death won’t know where to find them.  I’m near certain Death has a worldwide reverse directory.

Who Says You Can’t Take It With You?

Not to go off on morbid (although compared to prime time TV this is nuthin): Since it’s a relatively forgone conclusion that we all head to the Big Sleep, I had a marvelous conversation with one of my daughters on Wednesday that you’ll get a kick out of.

It began with a discussion of  what else?  Money and  she quickly reminded me that “You can’t take it with you” and ended with a wrap-up, in so many words:  “And this being the case, Dad, can you send me some?”

I politely declined, pointing out that while it’s true that you can’t take it with you, there’s no point on missing out on too many adventures in this Life if you can afford them.

Money doesn’t make you happy, Dad!” came the retort.

“Oh?”  I couldn’t help myself:  “I got the right woman, a paid for home, an old airplane, and more hobbies than I have time for.  I love my life and [hate to disappoint you] but I am ridiculously HAPPY!”

There was a pause as that sunk in and a new argument constructed.

““To prove my point, people in India are a lot happier than people in the US.”

““Listen, daughter-of-mine:  I’m not big on trusting any country which still wipes with its left hand.  Besides, they’ll be miserable as we are, just as soon as a professional politician class rises to power and they get an Affordable Care Act..  Give them time.  Money may not buy happiness, dear, but it does buy toilet paper and top sirloin.

As for the “taking it with you” part?  I figure to leave life with many great memories, plus a whole smorgasbord of soul-tempering adventures.  I spend  a fair bit of money to have those.  Money makes it possible and the quest for the memories and the soul-tempering is what we live for.”

This being the case, I of offered, “Would you rather have a 50-year collection of “working for the Man” as your takeaway to the grave or a lifetime of spitting in the wind and trying everything that grabs your heart strings?  I vote the latter.  You may need a life of just working more than I do.”

I’m sure this isn’t the end of it…got the sense that the check-fishing isn’t over.  But as I’ve told here, when Dad wanders off to the Big Sleep, she’s got to figure out how to bait her own hooks and catch her own fish.  And teaching the fine art of fishing for money is a core parenting responsibility.  Putting fish on the hook for the kids doesn’t teach ‘em jack.

Personal Priorities

As long as I’m slogging through personal priorities, I took the old Beechcrate down to Crocket, Texas, this week where Mark-the-Mechanic at East Texas Aviation will be doing this year’s required annual inspections.

Flying in the South is a year-round activity but Spring is especially nice…the bug bites once again.

The flight down for maintenance was comfortable although bumpy below 2,500 feet.

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Peoplenomics: Rethinking Real Estate: Q2 and Beyond

We’ve got data, we’ve got prejudices, we’ve got expectations. But a dollar collapse? Gold soaring into the thousands or Bitcoin going back to $1,000+? Maybe in some alternate reality, but this morning we’ll line up a few ducks in the real estate world and, as we do so, a very unflattering outlook lies ahead. After coffee and headlines.

Global Climate Tax Footwork

Overs the past few days there has been a real push in the American press to whip up public support for the notion of climate change.  But a more measured report, out this morning from the BBC admits “Dissent among scientists over key climate impact report” which is due next Monday.

Of course, if you’re prepared to swallow “climate change” hook, line, and sinker, you  could no doubt send in links to stories like “Scientists to climate change skeptics: Get real.”

Next week;s report will be of more than passing interest because it may well represent a “tipping point” in the climate dialog.  Whereas the BBC version of what’s coming seems to focus on the adaptation angle, the USA versions is much more likely to pronounce the need for ever-more government (thus taxes) to address climate issues.

The reason, when you zoom out into the American overview is simple:  We have a falling crime rate, yet the hiring of police and security has never been higher.  And with the military winding down some of its spending, we see the need to employ people in an economy that still isn’t talking about the central issue:  The ‘brick wall’ of employment of automated manufacturing is killing off jobs wholesale.

While there has been a major increase (even in Europe) in business services, a lot of that kind of employment will be short-term as businesses get onto effective ERP & document management systems and then begin to really set about more layoffs.  And, of course, all but 10-25% of the consulting positions in business services will be left, and those will be mainly in software  updates and reconfigurations.

So yes, we need a grand new source of employment.  And, if you’ve watched “Inequality for all” you’ll see the problem is that the middle class is shrinking while those at the top just keep on getting richer.

But will climate money impact the middle class?  It’s early in the game, but my inclination is no, it won’t since the jobs there will be highly technical and highly skilled.  Jobs that may keep some of the rollout from business services going – when that begins to falter – but what about the working stiffs with high school and a year or three of college?

I’m only guessing, but a 90% change of a US climate tax, a 50% chance of a global climate tax, and a 3% chance of some meaningful change for the middle class seems about where this one’s going to fall.

Who was it who said “When fascism comes to America it will be wrapped in a flag and carrying a cross”?  Well, climate’s got its own set of wrappings, too.  And it will be carrying a tax.

No Bodies – Just a Media Burial

We have to wonder if the Malaysians have jumped the gun a bit here, declaring the passengers onboard MH370 dead.

That is expected to set loose the dogs of the insurance companies, who are offering initial payments by some reports $5,000 .  But under the Montreal Convention, passenger lives are only worth $150,000 to $175,000…which in today’s world, is a pittance.

Says Wikipedia:

Under the Montreal Convention, air carriers are strictly liable for proven damages up to 113,100 special drawing rights (SDR) (Updated from 100,000 on 31 December 2009), a mix of currency values established by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), approximately $138,000 per passenger at the time of its ratification by the United States in 2003 (as of December 2011, around $175,800). Where damages of more than 113,100 SDR are sought, the airline may avoid liability by proving that the accident which caused the injury or death was not due to their negligence or was attributable to the negligence of a third party. This defence is not available where damages of less than 113,100 SDR are sought. The Convention also amended the jurisdictional provisions of Warsaw and now allows the victim or their families to sue foreign carriers where they maintain their principal residence, and requires all air carriers to carry liability insurance.

The Montreal Convention was brought about mainly to amend liabilities to be paid to families for death or injury whilst on board an aircraft.

For a $30-million jetliner and 150 passengers, care to guess who makes out better?  Not the passengers ($26.2 million in settlement exposure) versus was could be $30-million or more for aircraft hull insurance..something a reporter with more time might want to look into.

A Few Notes on Futuring

You may have noticed last week’s Friday report (here) began with a forecast of a  big disease story this week.  What I said (yes, it’s bad to quote yourself, but I’m making a point, so go with me on this…) 

Looking at the data runs from our www.nostracodeus.com project, the word frequency blip today is “epidemic” which has popped up.  It doesn’t seem to have landed/taken root in a major singular story, unless you consider streaking the ruins at Machu Pichu, Peru major.

A check of the CDC website reveals a measles watch in the Philippines, but that shouldn’t drive things like this.  So we will be in the “unsurprised” category if the CDC or other agency announces something next week about an “epidemic” of something. 

These are low probabilities, but they seem to be peeking out of the noise

OK, that was posted on Friday.

This morning we’re hip deep in headlines :  Canada probes possible Ebola case.

Ebola outbreak in Guinea may spread to Liberia.

Ebola breaks out in West Africa for the first time.

As we move into the second half of the week (slowly, for sure) that leaves expectations for attack on Israel from the north, another accident headline (though the declaration of death for MH370 passengers may suffice) and the Taliban may be expected to pull of a major something.  Between now and Sunday, on this batch.

Grady will have torn down the overnight data run and a report up shortly at the www.nostracodeus.com site.

Mud Search

That huge mudslide up in Washington State (north of Seattle) has 176 people listed as missing although the death toll is expected to be way below that.  Meantime, there is extreme caution involved because of the risk of further sliding in the area.

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Coping: The UrbanSurvival “Strange Dept.”

Schedule note:  This morning’s report will be shorter than usual because I have a pretty demanding schedule today.  For one, I need to take the old Beechcrate down for service to an airport about 45 miles south of us.  There, Mark the Mechanic will do his magic (mostly paperwork) making sure we’re good for another year of flying by the book.  After that, a couple of subscriber issues to take care of, a conference call this afternoon, and work on Peoplenomics for tomorrow morning.  It will focus on real estate and how much dough to sink into your home; always a delicate balance.

Several comments have come in regarding my wife (Elaine’s) experience with the fleeting “cloud”.  Included were a couple of medical professionals.  So just to make sure we’re on the same page, here, let me describe why she called it a “cloud.”

She was standing in the kitchen, watching television, and this “cloud” the size of a beach ball appeared in front of her.    As she turned her head and eyes to the side, the cloud didn’t move.  This is a key medical note because with a visual hallucination, when you turn your eyes or body parts, the hallucination tends to move with the body.  But this one didn’t.  And when she brushed it away, then turned to the microwave to see if something was on fire, and turned back, there was nothing there.

There were also no feelings (no tingly or anything else) and no emotional reactions (goose bumps, or any of that) and no change in mental state.

We used to joke often about what Panama called “the companions” who he and a friend of his experienced while looking after the house for us, once upon a time.  It was a series of distinct footsteps going through the house and freaked them out, but this cloud thing was different.

There also don’t seem to be any lingering effects.  As we talked about it Monday afternoon, it didn’t have any of the “creeped out” feeling that she {still} has from her ‘teleported at nighty’ experience.  That was the one where she went to sleep on the sofa (watching TV) a few months back, and found herself awake and in bed…with no recall of how she got there.  Yeah, not that is a strange one.

The Headache Questions Explained

Thank you for all the answers to the headache questions.   My reason for asking will now be explained and why I wanted to collect some baseline answers before I rolled out the background of a rather amazing story.

The first thing I need to do is put out a disclaimer:  The following deals with religious matters and I don’t make any claims, except that I report things that come my way because I think they are of general interest.  I know a lot of people (all over the world) who are in – how to say this? – the field of light working.  So with that in mind, here’s the tale and I’ll keep this as short as I can….

The world as we know it seems to exist on two levels. There is the hard and fast Newtonian level where apples and gravity get along fine.  And then there is a not-so-firm level where intent makes things occur, where subtle energy, emotions, religions and all that “other” live.

The tale that came my way from a light worker recently comes from someone I would consider a trusted spiritual advisor.  Although this person has a different worldview/belief set than I do, I trust their integrity completely.

What the person explained, in so many words, is that over the past couple of months, they had run into 3 cases where women were beset with headaches (top/back of head) that were similar to, but different than the ‘conventional’ kinds of demonic possessions this person has dealt with many times in the past.

The assertion was that there was an alliance between certain people/humans with non-human/alien/etheric entities that had developed tools for monitoring humans that crossed the bounds of conventional physics as we know them.

In the this worldview, there was a new kind of ‘thing’ out and about that was sort of crab-like in appearance and which would wrap itself around the back of a person’s etheric head and could be used to monitor or suggest thoughts without a person being aware of it.

A quick Wikipedia quote here, since none of this etheric stuff is made up on my part:

The etheric body, ether-body, æther body, a name given by neo-Theosophy to a vital body or subtle body propounded in esoteric philosophies as the first or lowest layer in the “human energy field” or aura.[1] It is said to be in immediate contact with the physical body, to sustain it and connect it with “higher” bodies.

The English term “etheric” in this context seems to derive from the Theosophical writings of Madame Blavatsky, but its use was formalised by C.W. Leadbeater[2] and Annie Besant[3] due to the elimination of Hindu terminology from the system of seven planes and bodies. (Adyar School of Theosophy).

The term gained some general popularity after the 1914-18 war, Dr.Walter John Kilner having adopted it for a layer of the “human atmosphere” which, as he claimed in a popular book, could be rendered visible to the naked eye by means of certain exercises.[4]

The classical element Aether of Platonic and Aristotlean physics continued in Victorian scientific proposals of a Luminiferous ether as well as the cognate chemical substance ether. According to Theosophists and Alice Bailey the etheric body inhabits an etheric plane which corresponds to the four higher subplanes of the physical plane. The intended reference is therefore to some extremely rarefied matter, analogous in usage to the word “spirit” (originally “breath”). In selecting it as the term for a clearly defined concept in an Indian-derived metaphysical system, the Theosophists aligned it with ideas such as the prana-maya-kosha (sheath made of prana, subtle breath or life-force) of Vedantic thought.

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Investing in World War III

If you’re like me (a child of the “duck and cover” era), it has probably occurred to you that we shouldn’t be living in a world full of nuclear weapons (and people willing to pull the trigger).

But facts are facts and some of these include a world full of people, a world which is running short of new technologies and “must have products” to the point that there is seemingly little to spur further growth.  And, besides, we spent on this money on arming ourselves to the teeth, and so what good are the arms if we don’t use them once in a while?

I thought you’d enjoy a quick look at how the map of the boundary world between the US/West/Europe and Russia looks today because it illustrates the military and economic standoff that is evolving even as the G-7 (minus the naughty Putsy) sits down to work out its economic strategy.  Behold!  Ure’s view of things!

One of the reasons to invest in a copy of Microsoft Streets and Trips 2013 is so that you can sit in the comfort of your (pre-WW II) home and take a look at how the battle lines are being drawn.

“The Front” as I’ve drawn it above is a dashed line that represents the boundary between spheres of influence.  At the top left, we see the blue (EU/NATO/US) pushing in on Ukraine, trying to solidify the independence of the country to become another pawn in the EU’s chess game to expand all the way across Russia.

Russian interests (black arrows) are not about to sit back and let Europe get away with European expansionist efforts that failed before under Napoleon, the Kaiser, Hitler, and now, well, we’ll see how the EU does.  For now, the dashed line in Ukraine has moved decidedly west as Ukraine has pulled all of its forces out of Crimea and those that remain have thrown in with Moscow.

Dropping down into Turkey, the reason for the Russian strategic interest here is obvious as hell:  They have control of the northern part of the Black Sea, but the choke point in terms of naval forces and trade is Turkey.

Which is why what is going on?

A look at Turkey headlines this morning shows that along that dashed border between Russia and West, there was the shoot-down this weekend of a Syrian jet which supposedly had violated Turkish airspace.  The West is doing everything it can to overthrow Syrian plans for elections, which seem bound to occur anyway.

And that gets us down to the lower left/center of our map where you can see the hard red line which is what keeps the Russians from glomming onto the Iraqi countryside, along with all its oil and not only that, I hope you notice how that war conveniently set up a buffer between Russia and the Saudis, which might go a long ways toward explaining 9/11 but that’s a whole other discussion that becomes much more speculative.  Except, we note in passing, that there was a strategic reason we “invaded the wrong country.”

And off on the lower right, we see how the West/US has grayed out the Afghanistan area, because it’s a very difficult area to supply, being surrounded by less-than-friendlies.

Thoughtful analysts are, therefore, looking at Turkey and wondering if the West will be able to “pull it out” in the final half of this game.  The report this morning in the Jerusalem Post offers “Analysis:  Turkey as a model of Muslim democracy in shambles” and that is an understatement.

The whole notion of Democracy in Shambles is echoing elsewhere in the region, as the last remnants of the Project for a New American Century (and supporters of that theory still in our US State Department) not only blew it by pressing wrongly with the neo-Nazis/extremists ion Ukraine, but seem likely to do so again in Turkey.

The whole “control Twitter” was (Turkey this weekend accused Twitter of defamation) seemed for a while like Twitter might be turned on, but I’ll believe it when I see it.  The Turks are talking about “ripping out the roots” of social networks, and that’s because they saw how the socials were used as revolution promotion media in Ukraine.  Duh!

And elsewhere, how has the Project for a New American Century scorecard worked out?  It depends who you ask.  The government of Egypt is on financial life support while this morning sentencing 529 members of the Muslim Brotherhood to death.

The US/West has some hard lines on maps – and the Suez Canal is one of them, while Turkey’s Strait of Dardanelles is the other.  

The Dardanelles us why the next few dance steps in Waltzing to WW III should involve Turkey.  And Wikipedia provides this bit of history that should help put this assertion into perspective:

In July, 1946, the Soviet Union sent a note to Turkey proposing a new régime for the Dardanelles that would have excluded all nations except the Black Sea powers. The second proposal was that the straits should be put under joint Turkish-Soviet defence. This meant that Turkey, the Soviet Union, Bulgaria and Romania would be the only states having access to the Black Sea through the Dardanelles.

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Coping: WoWW – Elaine’s “Personal Cloud”

We begin the week with a very sequence of report, event, and dream that reaches out fetchingly from the World of Woo-Woo to begin the week.  Between them all, it is a most savory and piquant mix to stir the non-rational side of thought.

The Report

If you’re a woman, and in the past 3-4 months you’ve had a strange headache, please let me know.  But only if the headache was in an odd place:  At the top, center, back-of-head area.  I won’t go into the reasons just yet, because I don’t want the inquiry to  be colored by suggestibility.   BUT, if you have had an odd headache, a feeling of heaviness, a headache of 1-3 days around the top/back/center of your head, please let me know via email.

The Event

So there were Mr. and Mrs. Ure last night, about 7:15 PM, watching television.  We were looking at “Inequality for All” which I hadn’t had time to watch and Elaine wanted to watch again.

I was sprawled out in my recliner and Elaine was munching on a snack in the kitchen warming up something in the microwave…

“Can I tell you something odd?” she asked from the kitchen.  I immediately hit pause on the video because Elaine never makes remarks like that.  “Sure, what?”

“I just had the strangest experience!  I was watching the television when all of a sudden I saw a white cloud.  It wasn’t a mist…it was like a white cloud, right down to the scalloped edges.  I though ‘Smoke!’ and so I turned around to look at the microwave…thinking it was a fire, or something….and when I looked back — IT WAS GONE!”

Needless to say, we talked about it and it was definitely not smoke, Elaine’s eyes are fine, the effect was binocular, fleeting, not headaches, body ache, and no drugs, hypertension, stroke, or anything odd like that. 

Just a solid-looking “cloud” – that was white, opaque, and about as big as a beach ball at half an arm’s length.

Preceding this, I had been working on a Linux server project on one of our laptops and we had been discussing a house-sitting opportunity next month up in the northwest (which was scuttled because of long range weather charts, which was disappointing for both of us…).

But I was left to wonder about whether the “cloud” had something to do with emotional release or leftover “energy” floating around.  There was no darkness to it – pure white – so I don’t know whether it held meaning (good call on the questionable flying weather, or what?) or whether it was some other [more rational] event.

A call to a trusted spiritual advisor suggested that it was just “one of those things” but didn’t seem to have any malice associated with it and nothing similar in his experience.  I made a note to pass it along to Dr. Rob the eye doc to see if he’s heard of anything like it before, either…so we shall see…

The Dream

And then I awoke this morning from another one of my super-lucid dreams which related to an all-night debate over whether I should mention any of this weird/woo-woo stuff in the column this morning at all.

The waking image in the dream was that of watching a containership, loaded high with containers on deck, swinging its stern in toward a dock, obviously where it was supposed to unload.

Was this a metaphor?  So I decided to share this rather odd sequence of events and see what you might make of it.

If anything…but disappearing clouds are not a common occurrence in Elaine’s like, or mine.  I did suggest next time one appears that she inquire about lottery numbers.

Oh…and one more odd little coincidence:  When I had that odd/strange dream on our last trip (about the road being closed and the detour and having it all come true three hours later…)  I had some of the most delicious-tasting ham in my life for breakfast. 

So good, in fact, that I inquired and was told it was “apple wood smoked ham” and so I had Elaine pick some up at the store when she made a supply run to town a few days ago.

And what was the only “new” food that we have eaten lately?  Yes…apple wood smoked ham.

And that opens up a whole discussion on a long discussion about whether ancient food prohibitions were pure religious, or because of a lack of refrigeration (which is where I have always leaned), or now – because of events in my own life – whether certain foods, at certain points of evolution in one’s life – can encourage the kind of experience which might  freak some people out.

I may have to find some lobster and crab to continue the experiment.  I keep wondering “Is there some secret food chemistry that I might have stumbled over accidentally on our Arizona trip?  I mean I’d had lobster a day and a half earlier, before the apple wood smoked ham.  Say, you don’t suppose there are biochemical locks to higher realms that might be picked, do you?

Especially since we have been working so diligently on getting out vitamins dialed in just so….

Financial Woo for April

As long as we are running off into the Twilight Zone this morning, a note from my friend Robin Handler (Options Signal Service) about the upcoming astrological outlook is worth a look:

Hi George,

Thought you might like to share this with your readers.

As we enter April, we face the Cardinal Cross aspect I’ve written about I previous issues. Also, while calculating the cyclical reversal date for next week, I saw something that has never happened before: within a few days of the Cardinal Cross, there a multiple cyclical reversal, and one with a value of 26. I have never seen one with a value greater than 22.

Uranus S

The Cardinal Cross brings Uranus influence to a possible once in a life-time event. Uranus rules technology and aerospace. It is also associated with earthquake.

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