Month: February 2014

Turn-Around Tuesday

At least for a moment, maybe. But the early numbers didn’t look all that hot – 30+ by the Dow futures when I looked, but as Peoplenomics.com subscribers know, we’re laughing all the way to the bank on this latest slide.  And tomorrow, we’ll be doing some work on answering the next question logically arising:  “How far is down?”

But first the highlights:  Dow dropped more than 300 points.  Obviously, that East Coast bias against the AFC winning is more than just rumor.  And, since the next wave down in the Long Wave is due any old time, why not now?

I mean, what could be more graceful than a nice Wave 1 (or macro 3 down) starting over Christmas, going into April/May, then having a Wave 2 bounce, and then things collapsing in a heap at the end of the year?

No, it’s not cast in concrete and your investment decisions are your own, it’s just that the reason we study history is to find out new and exciting ways to make money without breaking a sweat.  Times like the present are what bears live for.

And when you look around, the reason for the decline is staring us all in the face:  The Fed has added more than $3-trillion to its balance sheet (in the form of mortgage debt mostly) so they’re about out of silver bullets.

Then there’s the drop in consumer disposable income because of gunpoint healthcare.  Which is not a criticism, except as one reader wrote during our recent healthcare poll:

Current policy is 5k deductible and 70% coverage with a few doctor visits (3 each) at copay of $30. Monthly premium is $550.

Under Obamacare, I will have a $7500 deductible, and premiums go to $1100/mo.

And that’s just one example of how one couple will be spending $550 a month less on things like dinner out, a movie, travel, and so forth.

Now, multiply that by a lot of people and what?  (Bipity-bopity-boo!)  The market drops.

Well, see, that wasn’t really so hard to see coming, was it?

And with all those people who got a one year stay of financial execution because they work for big companies that got the (crooked, illegal, but probably saving us from even larger, instant collapse) one year delay, we will be seeing even more downside over the next year.

You know, you don’t need to be a financial genius to navigate in the world.  You just need to wake the F up and see what’s going on in your own neighborhood.  As goes your income, so goes the country, if you have enough friends.  (*I don’t have any, so I have to study the headlines.)

Speaking of the headlines, the NY Times is blaming poor auto sales last month on bad winter weather.

Reality check!  Attention East Coast establishment media empire:  It was not snowing in LA or much of the rest of the country and the real reason is collapsing disposable incomes!  Hello?  Anyone home?  it snows last January, too, you know.  It does it every year, in fact.  Hello?  Anyone there?  FMTT

Another headline?  Sure:  Construction spending up.  Yeah, I know, how can this happen if it’s snowing so much people can’t buy cars, right?

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Coping: With Earworms (Ohrwurms)

“Have you lost your frigging mind?  What is an Earworm?”

Ah…well for no particular reason, every so often when my brain is working on various projects, I do get the occasional ohrwurm.  Song you can’t get out of your head that just shows up for no obvious reason…

This morning’s was the Christmasy song “O Tannenbaum.”

Not everyone thinks about ohrwurms….they just come and go. 

Like last week, because I was spending a lot of time over in the house (instead of out here in the office doing real work, thanks to the flu) Elaine and I had a ‘dumb music’ festival that we’d planned to surprise G2 with during his recent visit. 

We played such memorable hits as “Does your chewing gum lose it’s flavor on the bedpost overnight” and “One-eyed, one-horned, flying Purple People Eater…”   Songs you hate but can’t get out of your head.

Which ought to set off more than a few ohrwurms in the over-60 set, fo’ sho.

Oh, it’s a legit thing, this ohrwurm thing, says Wikipedia:

An earworm is a catchy piece of music that continually repeats through a person’s mind after it is no longer playing.[1] Phrases used to describe an earworm include musical imagery repetition, involuntary musical imagery, and stuck song syndrome.[2][3][4] The word earworm is a calque from the German Ohrwurm.[5]

Researchers who have studied and written about the phenomenon include Theodor Reik,[6] Sean Bennett,[7] Oliver Sacks,[4] Daniel Levitin,[8] James Kellaris,[9] Philip Beaman,[10] Vicky Williamson,[11] and, in a more theoretical perspective, Peter Szendy.[12] The phenomenon is common and should not be confused with palinacousis, a rare medical condition caused by damage to the temporal lobe of the brain that results in auditory hallucinations.[13]

All of which led to the first conscious thinking of the day.

I trust you know that  your brain has multiple memory types. In other words, I’m one of those people with semi-eidetic memory,  It’s a skill that most people have – to one degree, or another – but like so many capabilities of mind, it only works on two conditions:

1.  You have to give yourself PERMISSION to have a nearly flawless memory.  If you are bundled up in tension and self-doubt, your mind will provide exactly what you expect of it.  So, step one to a memory is to simply CLAIM it.

This has amazing implications in school and learning later in life, and if was while working on this improved memory stuff, that I came across my “everything is a recipe” method for learning highly complete material quickly.  (Another story for another day…)

2.  the second thing you have to do is use it.  Which seems obvious, except that it’s not all it’s cracked up to be.  Go watch a lot of episodes of the BBC version of Sherlock (or the American series Elementary) and you’ll see that having an ability to process/recall huge amounts of information can also be a curse.

Which – at least as far as personal observation goes –  is why many really, really smart people over-indulge in either booze or drugs.  It’s a way of “turning off the damn machine” in your head now and then.  Sometimes it can be a major battle lasting through large parts of people’s lives to get a proper relationship going between the different levels of personality…machine on, machine off…but again, another topic for another day.

OK, first point was what?  That when you start actually using more of your brain than the “room temp IQ people” you find that complex…..everything…..becomes fairly simple.  It always has a recipe under it somewhere, and once you have the underlying rule set nailed, then learning anything is simple as pi.  (To a bunch of places…)

Second point is that as you begin to develop your (much higher than you’re trained to believe you have) mental abilities, you begin to recall other than pictograph or linguistic symbols.

You will find, for example, that you can recall (and play back perfectly, in your head) whole complete pieces of music without the need for an iWhatever and ear buds.

What’s more, you can change the music on the fly to whatever suits your mood.

Of course, this is not something in the way of commonly told (or discussed) mental capabilities because (for one) it would wreck the iWhatevering business.  CVan’t have too many empowered people around, now, can we?  Why, having people figure out that they can play back music in their heads, well, that’s quite a dirty secret.

And, besides, there are some aspects of iWhatevering that are superior to what most people can recall, because there’s the problem of the bass line.  And has a mental/physiological basis.

Key Point: Think of your mind as a constantly running multi-track recorder.  Except that the only thing our little 18-track here at the ranch all we can capture is sound.  The distinction is that the multi-track personal mental recorder (PMR) that is constantly running in your head is actually recording different “sensory tracks” and that makes certain kinds of “perfect playback” of music quite difficult.

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The Nonlinear Market Period Approaches

Peoplenomics this weekend was, if I do say so myself, one of the better ones in that it explained a curious bit of (simple) math that demonstrates the market tendency to become very nonlinear ultra-low interest settings like those expected in the period ahead.

The nonsubscriber way of thinking of it goes like this:  The closer interest rates get to zero, the more volatile the market becomes.  That’s because stock prices become cost-justified as infinitely high on an earnings basis just before yields hit zero, and then, once that barrier is passed, they become infinitely overpriced!

Yes, it’s a crazy way of looking at things, but the math holds up – and now we’ve got more research ahead to see how much of the market actually moves on the mathematical foundations laid out.

It’s like that Sunday football game.   Oh, sure, there were statistical indicators of what would happen, but there’s always that “emo component” – emotional component – that works its way into investment decisions and which team you support.

Just like I can’t understand how people get all wrapped-around-the-axle on a sports team, the answer is really quite simple:  It’s all about what goes on down at the archetype level that CG Jung wrote so eloquently about.  I won’t ask you to whip out your copy of  Memories, Dreams, Reflections, but transference behavior is oftentimes a “mother transference” and by the rule of “least resistance” the closest substitute wins.  Mass marketing of sports is what we get.

This is not to say that sports fans (and investors) are all idiots when it comes to manipulation of their emotions, but the reason that sports franchises have mascots is precisely because it enables and empowers transference that to the fan – at the experiential level – seems “normal.”  But to the aware (recovered sports addict or aware investor) the method is easily seen and stripped of its power to herd us blindly.

Just as the Seattle “Seahawk” in an amalgam of northwest First People’s myths, the bronco has it’s own Wikipedia listing, as well.  It’s quite ridiculous to cheer for any team, particularly one that may pay less (percentage-wise) in taxes than me or you.  Yet millions did it Sunday, not realizing they were cheering for either a…

… large raptor, reaching more than 60 cm (24 in) in length and 180 cm (71 in) across the wings.

Or, they were sucked into cheering for…

…an untrained horse or one that habitually bucks.

Raptor or untrained horse.  It’s insane, but only if you detach and looking for meaning.

My (How’s your hangover?) column this morning will not get into the depths of MMMR (managing multiple matrices of reality) as it relates to sports – and investing.  That will be discussed in more detail for subscribers in Peoplenomics Wednesday.

I’m just pointing out that people will cheer for the damnedest things (fish, birds, social or racial subtypes) and not realize they are being “worked.”

In similar fashion, the markets have not yet crashed (although, give it time) because there are many market players who are too dumb to figure out (as great sage Jimi Hendrix warns us) “Castles made of sand, fall in the sea, eventually.”

Which is why, after the silliness of the Sunday, it’s time to roll out our new mascot around here.  No, we don’t know how long he’ll be around, but already the Urban Bears are kicking the average investor’s ass in Seattle-like style.

We can report the Bears whipped the Nikkei’s by almost 2%, the Chinns by 106 points, and in Europe, the Bear was continuing his run for the gold by beating the Frogs by 18 points and ahead of the Huns by 66, although both of those games are still underway.

Also in play, the Bears versus the Queens with the bears ahead by 45-points. 

The US game will be getting underway shortly, but we notice the monthly unemployment report won’t be out until Friday as the Labor Department has been on the injured reserve list from the partial government shutdown last year.  They’ve never made it back into the action.  Instead, fans will have to watch slow car sales and dwindling construction as they look for a reason to bet against the Bears.

Down here at the old sports book, we notice the Bears have won three weeks running in the S&P playoffs.  And only the most casual fan of Reality Bears would overlook in the stats that the Bears have ruled since Christmas week.

As you settle up on those office wagers today, you might think about putting a little something on the Bears next.  They’re looking sharp and the team makes a lot more sense around here than washed out birds or bucked-up horses.

“Go bears, or go broke.”

I trust you know what the Seattle win means by the Super Bowl Indicator?

More after this…

(I have no idea what this means.  Usually Amazon ads make sense to OFs like me, but this one is included because it’s so…uh….mysterious.  No clue what it means, but I will try it later, since I don’t have any friends… Now, where we we?  )

Happy Times Ahead for East Africa, Turkey

Well, not quite.  Understanding this next story requires you have your UrbanSurvival concealed carry training card with you….which means you know what a man-portable air-defense system is (MANPAD) and that it knocks airplanes out of the sky…

Dear Mr. Ure,

Links are circulating to this “Armament Research Services” article of manpad related weaponry allegedly captured from rebels in South Sudan.  While the verbal focus is on the weapons, evidently the seizure was worthy of a photo-op. Perhaps one may deduce out of the picture link from “The East African” discussion board that a son of the president of Uganda could be present.

Regards,

Gold star for our Winnipeg news analyst fellow on this.  And while we wait for planes to start dropping, we also should have our eyes on Turkey, figures warhammer…

It is becoming clear that the U.S. retraction into isolationism, the reluctance of Europe to play a leading role in Syria and the perseverance of radical Islamic factions led by al Qaeda are collectively precipitating an increased likelihood for instability in the Middle East region.

Now Turkey finds itself drawn into the cauldron of chaos, finding itself having to defend its borders and territory from incursion with overt but limited military action.

As Turkey joins the fray, the regional dynamic intensifies, with the potential for larger scale armed conflict seriously escalating.

Instead of the West proactively infusing meaningful measures to encourage peace, such as deliberate enforcement of nuclear and ballistic missile arms control, naval embargoes, intensified economic sanctions, and the demand for the surrender and dismantling of Syrian chemical weapons, the U.S. and it’s allies stand idly by as the pieces click firmly into place for armed confrontation.

There are simply too many competing pieces in play for the situation to end with a completely peaceful resolution for all interested parties.

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Coping: WoWW and the SuperBowl

“OK, Ure, what does the World of Woo-Woo – WoWW – have to do with the SuperBowl?”

Damned if I know – for sure – but something hit me this morning.  And I think we ought to try it out as a kind of woo-woo science project.  Here’s the idea:

As I got up this morning and turned on the ‘net to see who won the SBG, I noticed a slide show on one of the side panels of the browser that had a title something like “30 hottest cheerleaders in the NFL”.  Hmmm…#23 was kinda cute…

Naturally, when I got around to writing about this, I couldn’t find that link, but there are lots of other, similar, photo galleries to be found.  Like this one that promises the “30 hottest Dallas Cowboys cheerleaders of all time.”

“So what, you chauvinistic pig?”

Oh, all in the name of science, I promise! 

Let’s suppose that Jung (and Freud, et alia) were right and there’s a high correspondence between what goes on in the external world and what goes on in the inside of our personalities.  Bear with me on this.

Let’s then imagine that we can connect the inner and outer worlds with the right tools. In this case, a cheerleader gallery.

Most people have an idea about how Tarot cards work, but today’s flash was that we could look at collections of pictures – like the 30 hottest cheerleaders – and by picking out the most appealing one, we may have discovered a new way to pick what?

LOTTERY TICKETS!!!

Hell yeah!  What a fun new crackpot theory to test.

Now, if you live in Texas, obviously you could use the “30 hottest” of the Cowboys and then for the rest of the lotto numbers, you could pick from the hottest picks from a Houston collection.

So you take a collection of photo galleries, find the pictures you are most drawn to, and then use the picture numbers as lotto picks.

Then tabulate your lottery results to see if they are better – or worse – than how much you didn’t win before.

Or, I suppose, if you have a deep-seated Loser Complex, you pick pick out the six ugliest (or however many numbers you need for lotto, PowerBall, or whatever, and see how that works.

I’m always intrigued with the notion “as above, so below”  or, since I’m deep in research in other areas that run parallel (sans cheerleaders, which would sure make it more interesting) the correspondence between “inner world” and “outer world” and this just struck me this morning as something worth mentioning.

If you have other ways of picking lotto numbers, please send them in.

And if you hit The Big One after trying this “pick from pictures” to get numbers approach, a 10% tip to the House is in order….

Our Healthcare Cost Poll

One of my friends left me a critical note (and voicemail) about my Obamacare/ACA cost poll.  He said a better poll would be…

“I became a year younger last year.

I became a year older last year.

There, now I’ve fixed your poll about health care costs.  Duh.  It’s an actuarial pricing model.  Think about it.”

Well, I have been…all damn weekend…and it still doesn’t make sense.  The Obamacare / ACA price experience is NOT a zero-sum game.  There appear to be more losers (people paying more) than there are winners (people paying less, and insurance companies).

So first our UrbanSurvival reader experience with the ACA:

Number Who Report Lower Healthcare costs:   17

Number Who Report Higher Healthcare costs:  52

I didn’t vote in this poll, because my healthcare costs went down, but only a couple of bucks.  Thanks to joining the ranks of the Olde Pharts (age 65 this month) I am now on Medicare which is a whole other problem.

Representative comment from someone whose costs got cheaper:

We (wife & I ) were on Minnesota care- low income. $48. Month. Now we are on medical assistance (MA) Free.

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Peoplenomics: Has the Long Wave Been Defeated?

With the departure Friday of Fed Chair Ben Bernanke and the elevation of Janet Yellen to the position of Fed chair, have we seen the demise of the long wave cycle in economics? Or, has there simply be so much “creation” of “paper money” that we can no long see the true scale of what’s going on? These are some mighty juicy morsels to ponder as we survey this week’s action in markets. Which we’ll get around to after a few headlines and coffee, as always… More for Subscribers ||| SUBSCRIBE NOW!