Coping: With the “Great Texas Blizzard of Ought ‘14”

(West Elmwood, Texas) The commute to the UrbanSurvival office this morning was deemed treacherous and writers were urged to stay at home and offline if possible as the Great Texas Blizzard of Ought ‘14 swept through the Outback Region overnight dropping billions of flakes.

“I haven’t seen this many flakes since the 2012 elections,” one local resident told us.

Forecasters, who have named it “Winter Storm Klink” immediately attributed the storm to the effects of global warming

One forecaster, Mortimer Snerd of the Fort Worth forecast office said it was the worst storm he’d seen in his whole career since being hired on in late 2013 .

Another weather expert, Dr. Phil Dirt or MazinWeather, proclaimed the source of the storm as the “Oklahoma Effect Snow.”

As he explained it, cold weather from the Polar Vortex presently centered over Durant, Oklahoma mixes with warm moist air from Guadalajara, Jalisco State, Mexico.

“We’ve complained to Immigration and Customs Enforcement a zillion times,” explained Dr. Phil. “We know that they have a political agenda at the management level, but Texas needs stronger border weather enforcement. All it would take would be a higher wall.   Without it, we could be facing rain from illegally immigrating moisture this spring.

The East Texas Outback was particularly hard-hit by the storm, with some area’s reporting up to a sixteenth of an inch of the dangerous spawn of Klink.

The heavy snowfall overnight may also have contributed to a massive regional power interruption that lasted nearly a 1/10th of a second at the height of the storm.  Local power officials blamed the especially noticeable power bump Thursday night on excessive downloading during the storm.

“We had terrible load problems about 8:17 last evening” said utility spokesman George Westinghouse.  “Even though the Texas grid is independent from the other four power regions in the country and we produce more energy than most other nations, there’s only so much load we can support,” he confirmed.  “The flash outage was likely due to a slow switching relay at the Coldmutha  switch yard combined with too many people downloading videos, making dinner, and having their sound systems up to high,” he explained.

Working on the clock, crews had restored power to 100% of the areas 2,387 residents in 96 milliseconds, although some families reported outages lasting at long as 134 milliseconds.

Government officials in Bradford, Montalba, and unincorporated districts Brushy Creek and Elmwood are holding an emergency meeting at Bubba Jean’s Café in Bradford once roads are passable.  Around at 8:30 this morning they’ll meet with the public to discuss storm recovery efforts.

“We may petition  County Judge Elbert Johnson for an emergency declaration.  Once that’s done, a state declaration should follow as a matter of course.  Things are that bad out here,” said Elmwood activist Willy Survive.  “As soon  as that’s done, we expect federal aid will follow which means FEMA and Xe forces should arrive within weeks to enforce peace during the storm recovery operations.  “Things are so bad, I think governor Perry call up NORTHCOM right away,” said Survive.”Besides, we need a disaster area tax break for local agriculture on 2014 taxes…we haven’t had a decent break since Ike.”

All ready, there have been reports of scattered looking, and minor thefts.  Anderson County Sheriffs are investigating a black cat named Zeus suspected stealing mouthfuls of cat food from an American tabby, Ms Puscilla, up in the headwaters region of Mound Prairie Creek, a known refuge for the endangered Sasquatch last reported there in 1921.

In Washington, Concerned Friends of Cryptoarcheology have organized a demonstration outside the White House today to underscore the Obama administration’s lack of concern the Mound Prairie Sasquatch plight..

East Texas tree farmer George Ure took this reporter on a tour of his farm at daybreak to survey the extensive damage caused by the storm.

Pointing to a surviving stand of trees he  explained that he was not able to find smudge pots in time to prevent extensive damage to his crops by the wintry blast. 

“We reckon there’s been a loss of maybe half a million pine needles, already,” said Ure.  East Texas pine needle exports account for as much as 1/1000th of one percent of Anderson County agriculture exports and officials are worried about the ripple effects on the US Balance of Trade.

Farmers, like Ure, are so desperate for additional smudge pots that prices of them on eBay are running up.

Forecasters have some relief in store for the region in their long range forecast with temperatures expected to zoom up into the mid 60’s by Saturday.

Reporters covering the disaster are running low on supplies, as well.  The officials meeting at Bubba Jean’s have announced some liquid writing supplies should be available at Gaines’ Package Store in Palestine by 11 AM.

Elsewhere, we understand cooler weather is in store for the Northeast.

[No horses were injured during the filming of this report.]

Seriously: Skydiving

George II, a/k/a “The Headless Skydiver” made it back from his five-day adventure down at Skydive Spaceland.

Shown right doing is his soon-to-be-patented back-flip exit from a Twin Otter at 14.5.

Reader Steve did send in a correction about the sport which involves voluntarily leaving the safety of a perfectly good airplane which makes no sense whatsoever to George the elder…

George,

If G2 continues as he has been, there is little chance that some whuffo-chic will ‘get her hooks in him’.  The sport tends to consume your energies, and you tend to self-select the significant others that you associate with.  There has been more than a few relationships that received the “Its either me or skydiving” line, resulting in a lot more skydives.

Cheers,

Steve

1st jump 1969

Total jumps 4000+

Hmmm…the sport has its own lingo, turns out.  UrbanDictionary has the definition of a “whuffo” over here….

My reluctance to trust nylon instead of 6061 aluminum is based on 220 pounds of reasons and the sentiment is echoed by reader Fred:

Your talk about not wanting to take up skydiving reminded me of my late father.  He was a private pilot too with about 10,000 hours in the air.  His sister (my Aunt Geneva) asked him if he wore a parachute when he was flying.  His response was that he didn’t, because he might get excited some time and jump out.  Said he’d rather just take his chances on landing it somewhere. 

Yessir, a man after my own liver.  That’d be chicken liver.  From reader Hal…

i’m an old guy with about 200 jumps a number I have arrived at by doing too few jumps over too many years.  I would qualify for a class c license if I went that route, which I have avoided.

There is a concept called “air time” which is how much time you spend in freefall multiplied by your number of jumps.  50 jumps times 2 minutes free fall equals a little over an hour of “airtime” which really isn’t that long.

To even consider base jumping with an A license is simply crazy.  I cannot imagine any serious jumpmaster would advise any jumper to attempt base jumping at that level of experience.  Keep in mind that base jumping is often done without a reserve simply because at that shortened altitude a reserve would never have a chance to open.  He’s already had 2 reserve rides?  A lot of people would consider that to be a high number but hey if you have to go to reserve not too many skydivers will fault you.  ( It may also have something to do with renting gear).

Skydivers fly their chutes just like pilots fly a plane.  So the old adage remains:  there are old pilots and bold pilots…

Yesterday’s regaling of the sport also got this base jumping note from reader Paul:

Hi George,

The BASE jumping you mentioned in your column as being a high antenna on the Gulf Coast could be the LORAN-C antenna tower in Raymondville.

Read More

Coriolois Economics: Last Gasps of the Crack-Up Boom

You know how when you flush the (john/crapper/head/throne) how it begins to spin as it goes around prior to taking a load of crap out of your life? Scientists call this spin-up the Coriolis Effect and around here we’re becoming terribly fixed on watching the opposite-acting effect in economics. The one that will be lots of crap into our lives shortly. The way this one’s going to work (take this to the bank) is simple: Things have been flushed and now they are beginning to spin up nicely.

Coping: With Adrenaline Junkies, Skydiving, Death-Stalking

I’m pretty much convinced that everyone has (like cats) nine lives.  I can account for a handful of times when I have almost lost mine…and each time there’s a lesson to be learned.  The imminence of losing your life does two things for you:  First, it teaches you how incredibly important having information is.  The second thing it teaches that not everyone dies every time.  And that leads to point three:  When your number’s up, your number’s up.

We’re going to talk about skydiving in a minute, but first a few notes on nearly dying that are quite personal.  Worth sharing because they taught me things…

When have I almost died?

Once, back in 1986, or in there, I was on my way to the office.  I was driving my 2.7 liter Porsche 911, wearing the power suit, and looking like “that guy.”  The engine made an odd noise and I popped open the rear deck to take a look by the side of the road, engine running.  My yellow “power tie” took one turn around the alternator belt as I bent over and flipped back out, again.

Whew!  Close one!

That’s what I mean by a close brush with death.  Wrapping a tie up in an alternator would have pulled my head into a running engine.

Oh, sure, I was competent in all kinds of things mechanical and aced every shop/power tools course I’d ever taken.  And yet, that’s how accidental death works.  It sneaks out when no one is expecting it and WHAM!

Another time, much younger, I was working on a transmitter.  A Johnson Pacemaker, (here’s a whole page on how cool they are) one of the finest early single sideband transmitters ever

Aged 17, or so, I’d replaced a few components and the final tube (a 6146B if that matters) and I was readjusting the plate neutralization cap.  Momentarily, I lost focus, distracted (looking at the manual while making an adjustment inside a high voltage cage that’s open ain’t terribly smart.

WHAM!

800 volts!  I had been wresting the bottom of my palm on the grounded metal chassis and one finger brushed a high voltage point.  The reason I’m still alive is simple:  When I was 13, I’d picked myself up off the floor from a more modest 200 volt shock and already had learned the “keep one hand in your pocket” rule of dealing with electronics.  High voltage through the hand was another one of those near-miss deals.

And on my first flight solo in an airplane, I inadvertently entered a spin after doing a series of [planned/required] stalls.  I recovered from that because I’d memorized the part in the “learning to fly” book about stall recovery.

So far, I haven’t hit nine lives, but toss in a commercial flight to Panama where I was in an L-1011 that dropped 1,500 feet in severe clear air turbulence and a close call of short final in Miami when a new mechanic pulled a DC-10 in for maintenance right onto the active runway as we were 500 feet up in a 727-227 down and dirty for landing.  Again, close, but no cigar.  The Captain (Kel) had a nearly photographic memory and rolled left, keeping an eye on the 727’s left wingtip, holding it 10-feet off the ground in order not to cartwheel a fully loaded 727 into the ground.  It was a full flight, as I recall, and I was riding jump seat. 

All’s well that ends well, in each of these cases, but it reminds me of the critical things to pass onto my kids, lest they do similar things and exit this life prematurely.  My list?

    • Never, ever, no matter what, get near a running engine with anything other than bare arms and tight-fitting clothing.
    • In ham radio, never make an adjustment without a) wearing nitrile gloves on the “hot” hand and b) memorize the schematic, settings, and only look at a diagram with hands away from hot transmitters and receivers.
    • Never unintentionally let a stall develop into a spin when driving airplanes.
    • Never – even for an instant – take off your seat belt when flying (even commercial).
    • Always – if you have a choice – fly with the smartest pilot you can.

    Those are just a few personal encounters with death that didn’t work out for the Grim Reaper.  But now that I’m up there a bit (65 shows up next month) I’m hardly in a taunting mood.  I know he’s out there somewhere, waiting for me to put on one more pound and trigger an M.I., waiting for me to choke on a big piece of steak, waiting for me to slip and fall wrong off a ladder, or have a table saw blade break up while I’m using it.

    Death is always around and you’ve just got to keep an eye out for it.

    But this morning’s ramble isn’t about me …it’s about why we pursue the kinds of activities that give us the adrenaline rush.

    I don’t know as I mentioned it, but my son came down to visit on Saturday.  After a nice steak dinner, the usual father-son chat, we went off to the local Denny’s Sunday morning, him driving my old pickup truck, and I haven’t seen him since.

    Since Sunday, he’s been down at Skydive Spaceland where’ he’s been fine tuning his free-fall skills.  When he left the house he had 61 jumps, or so, but when he returns this morning he’ll have about 75 under the canopy.

    Why skydiving?  Frankly, he’s an adrenaline junkie of the highest order.

    Yes, he got into a bit of trouble when he was young, but turns out that his brief encounter with crime was not because of a need for money, or a drug addiction.  No, for him it was an addiction to adrenaline.  That’s been sorted out for 10 years and then some.

    Over the years he’s found more socially acceptable (and legal) ways to “get some” of the buzz that goes with high adventure and it has worked for him professionally.  That’s why he’s been a first responder, EMT, and works in epidemiology sorting out who’s got AIDS and so forth.

    About a year ago he took up the sport, getting his “A” license up at Harvey Field (Snohomish) north of Seattle.  It’s a wonderful place to jump, but George II wanted to visit with “the old man” a bit and he didn’t want to wait for the wintertime Seattle gray to clear every time he wanted to go up.

    The weather is a lot better for skydiving this time of the year, and he made a decision to come down here and use four days of vacation time to get max fun out of life, which seems to be the point of it, right?

    You can click over onto the Skydiving Spaceland site and go through the pictures, but the nice thing about it from G II’s standpoint is that if you are a jumper, they have a bunkhouse (great showers and facilities including laundry) for itinerant skydivers, which G II fancies himself.

    I know from our talk before he headed south that he’s thinking about becoming a “skydiving tourist.”

    Tuesday, the winds in the drop zone were running 25 and gusting 30, so he only got one jump in, but as he pointed out, by jumping a 170 chute instead of a 180 or 190 and keeping speed up on final approach while in the pattern, you can come down, flare out, and so a “tip-toe” landing with no forward speed.

    For reasons that aren’t clear to me, skydivers are some of the most adrenaline-hooked-up people on earth.  To hear G II tell it, nothing on terra firma is anywhere near as exciting

    And for those who find event free-fall not enough, there’s the matter of base-jumping.  This is where you find a tall structure and pack a special chute and go off at super-low altitude.  I friend of mine from back in my news days, John S. was one part of the original group that base-jumped the Space Needle in Seattle.

    Oh, and that’s why the Space Needle Observation Deck was eventually encased with clear plastic so people like John and Art couldn’t plan round 2.  (Not sure what the statute of limitation is on base jumping, but it was more than 30-years ago now…)

    Rumor has it that G II almost went base jumping while on this trip.  Apparently there’s a high antenna somewhere down on the Gulf Coast where base-jumpers go. 

    So far, and fortunately for a worried parent, G II hasn’t gone that route.  He enjoys the free-fall part of it the most…but for how long?

    When he gets back, we’ll have the father-son discussion about gear:  Does he keep renting, or, at some point, does he buy?

    The “numbers” work out this way:  Rental rigs run about $25 per jump.  George is looking at buying his own hear now, and has been saving money like crazy for it.  Still, he’s looking at a $5,000 investment in equipment.  And, worse, if you do get all that gear and want to go schlepping around the country, you’ve just got that much more crap to pack and carry.

    Oh, and the gear as a useful life about 10-years, he figures.

    This is where I put on the “accounting hat.”  In order for gear rental to make sense, he’ll have to do 200 jumps over the next ten years.  That’s only 20-jumps a year.  OK, I can see how that might make sense – at least for now.

    But one of these days, one of those young ladies he’s been dating is going to get her hooks in and there goes the party animal lifestyle of a vagabond skydiver.

    Meantime, get’s got the full court press on to get dad and Elaine to take up the sport.  I continue to decline, however.  I’ve counted up the number of times that I’m had near-misses with the Grim Reaper and if we’re playing a “short game” of 9-holes in Life, I’m not going to taken a chance of a bogey.

    He’s had to pull his reserve twice in his skydiving adventures so far…in both case “normal accidents” with safe recoveries.

    I’ve carded a few more bogies and realize that I’m playing an opponent who never loses.  I’ll keep landing with the airplane we take off in, thank you very much.

    But for him, it’s a fine ADHD treatment and much better than what comes out of a bottle of pills.

    Explaining Conan O’Brien

    Reader Ray H, one of our favorite critics of the ol’ column, sent in this:

    Wurst, brats, dogs, get’cher links here. They’re fresh, they’re smokin’, and a few are even spicy! Links, get’cher links…

    Media Reacts: A Christmas Present Or Two Or Ten Edition

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TM8L7bdwVaA
    A Conan O’Brian clip featuring excerpts from a number of local news broadcasts. The broadcast affiliates are ABC, NBC, CBS, FOX, and a smattering of non-network stations.
    Tell me, upon viewing the clip: Are there any “broadcast journalists” left?

    Oh, dear, Ray…you missed something. Lemme fill you in…

    What most people don’t realize is that there are “story idea” companies that send out suggested scripts and story ideas for “soft news” that begins to fill up the local airwaves around holiday.  Usually a subscription service…a couple of hundred a month is budget dust compared to Chopper X time, right?

    So when I see this kind of compilation, I recognize it for what it is….a whole of of assignment editors and/or news directors saw the “suggested script” that came with the story idea from one of these news consultancies, and they look at what the “ratings consultants” have been telling station management “(Usually:”More health heart, and pocketbook!”) and all decided to run with the same story,. same script line, local variances and local B-roll. 

    They show up on slow news days, mostly.  We used to make jokes in radio on such slow days like “Can’t Channel 4 go out and roll over a car on Interstate 5, or something?” 

    So nothing mysterious about it. 

    Just like there’s nothing surprising when  administration “sources” tell the same thing to key reporters (like the WaPo or NYT) because as anyone knows in the major media, when you go to a presidential news conference, the most important story is often not what’s being said by the “talking head” – it’s often what’s being said to the Biggest Media by the “staff briefers.”

    Those remarks often begin with “What the President means to say here is….”  or “What the President is trying to get across is how…”  And yes, I had White House press credentials at one time and I’ve seen “the dance” first-hand often enough to enjoy the choreography.

    No Worries About Summer War

    Earlier this week, we were talking about how one solution to cryptic Nostradamus painting might be the advent of global war this summer.

    Well, hold up there, old pard, says reader Michelle:

    Sorry George,

    The Sun will be in Cancer Jun 21/22 to July 22/23. The dates here depends on the time zone. The Sun will be in Leo on Jul. 27/14, Jupiter is in Cancer till July 16/17…

    Now, she’s not a professional astrologer, and I don’t have time to go through all the machinations, but additional input is welcome.

    Read More

    Davos: Danger, and Devolution

    As Davos is getting underway, we pause this morning to look at what may be the most-overlooked aspect of the concentration of power in the “hands of the few” namely massive changes in the traditional “span of control” concept in management. It seems such an innocent thing on the surface, but then so did Lizzie Borden, I suppose. We’ll cut to the heart of things after a few headlines… More for Subscribers ||| SUBSCRIBE NOW! ||| Subscriber Help Center

    Playing to the Fed, Quantitative China

    The market looks to open firmer this morning…and why not?  We still have more than a week to run until the Federal Reserve meeting, at which time most of the smart money seems to think that new Fed chair Janet Yellen will not rock the boat and will take a “go slow” attitude toward ending quantitative easing, which though losing its effectiveness has, nevertheless, allowed the Fed to keep the economy from catering.

    The latest bit of financial candy is that China is boosting liquidity and that, in turn, should give markets a goose globally.

    Between now and Fed day next week, we have a paucity of news and data to look forward to.  There aren’t any big releases set this morning.  A minor home lending number tomorrow and it will be Thursday before we get a small flurry of data. And even that won’t be much: Some home sales figures, a weekly unemployment number, and leading economic indicators.  Then Friday we can all go back to sleep again.

    In foreign markets, Japan was up 1%, China about half that, and Europe is hinting at 1/3% gains which would pencil out to a Dow today up 54 points.  That’s not investment advice.

    No, it’s more like a stark reminder that the last half of January seems to run on and on….almost forever, seems like.  It’s the time of the year for strong coffee or NoDoz while we look for signs in the tea leaves.

    Tax Robotics:  Catching on?

    I’ve been telling Peoplenomics readers (and Urban, too_) that one of the biggest problems coming down the road is robotics and the mass replacement/end of human jobs.  Main thing is I figure we need to start taxing robotics…yesterday!

    Now, as if to exonerate me from looking like the Lone Nutter, here comes an article in the prestigious The Economist that says what?

    Coming to an office near you:  The effect of today’s technology on tomorrow’s jobs will be immense – and no country is ready for it…”

    You need to read the whole thing…and then make life/job plans accordingly.

    Fracking Fairytales

    [Since this morning is not particularly manic, and with great respect for Jay Ward, we play off the “fractured fairytales” series (here’s a list of ‘em on YouTube) as we eye a few developments which will impact the gas business.]

    Later this morning in Austin, the state Railroad Commission (which somehow regulates the oil and gas drilling in Texas – go figure) will get an earful from the good citizens of Azle, Texas, who are sick and tired of the earthquakes going on in their area ( NW of Dallas).

    As the link between fracking and water-injection wells clarifies (and we can have that discussion of groundwater pollution later) people are seriously pissed about being shaken up in order to drive more natural gas out of the rocks underlying the area.

    But that might not get very far.  One reason is the state benefits (hugely) from oil and gas operations.  The other is the current press to get as much energy out of the ground as possible.  And then we see stories (with the big winter storm about to swipe New England ) that a “propane shortage” adds to winter woes…

    Do I expect anything to change?  Platitudes.  Oil and gas are money and I’ve learned never to bet against the house.

    More after this…

    Mars Mystery

    So, what do you do if a planet you have been watching closely suddenly has a new rock appear on it?  Well, you could get confused, hold a press conference, and…well, that’s about all for now.

    Countries in Turmoil: A Collection

    Got’cher pick this morning.  There’s an emergency in effect in Thailand, for example. Charges of nepotism at the top are being met with (looking surprised, I hope?) the government granting itself sweeping powers to go hard-ass on anyone who disagrees with officialdom.

    Then you’ve got Syria where a number of human rights groups are saying that up to 11,000 people may have been killed by the Assad government.  (More in the Coping section this morning because this is a whole dot-connecter’s wet dream in this part of the world.)

    In Ukraine, protesters were out again last night, mixing it up with the cops there.  Ukraine wants closer ties to the EU while Moscow (much closer) is leaning on the government to remain right and keep up that FSU buffer state (bunker/siege) mentality left over from the Cold War.

    I still haven’t had time to launch that new specialty news site “The Daily Bomber” but our would-be front page there would include:

    4 dead in Beirut area bombing.

    US congressional group heads to Russia to investigate Boston Marathon bombings.  (The Sochi games don’t open until Feb 7, so maybe they will be getting a prelim look at security there?)

    No one is sure yet what caused a feed plant explosion in Omaha yesterday.  My bet would be on grain dust and static electricity.  …(See a demo of a flour mill explosion over here YouTube is worth review.

    Read More

    Coping: “Solving” the News / Analysis of Future

    Serious futuring discussion here:  The news all makes sense, at some level. It tells us the future, if we but listen closely, inspect the details, view with detachment, and just watch how it flows… 

    Other than the random AoG’s (Acts of God) caused by semi-random mechanical failures and such, there’s a “string” or “current” that becomes clear over time. 

    A flow of events.

    When it clarifies, everyone sits back and says “Aha!  So THAT is what all that stuff that happened before meant!”  Usually, after the fact, though.

    Pardon a long ramble, but we’ve got a ton of data now that is in the formative stages of becoming semi-connected, and perhaps at a meaningful level.  These could be the initial eddies formed as the River of War makes up its mind where to flow next.

    How to see it?  Ah!  That’s the problem.  Most people read the news and see only singular events. Yet, as our studies of finance reveal, there are lever-like. cause-and-effect, relationships that become easily seen with not too much difficulty.  And because big things like War tend to influence things like Markets, some attention should be paid to the playing field upon which the small investor has chosen to engage.

    Consequently, we have a collection of notes that lead us to expect huge (humanity-changing?) developments later this year.  This is not yet conclusive, only conjecture. This is not to say that something will happen.  Only that in nooks and crannies of the new flow there are interesting bits, hints, nibbles, gnaws, clicks, and pops that give signs or a loose a sketch of this big “thingy” that could be happening this summer into fall. 

    Naturally, if the data changes, our outlook changes, as well.

    With that as a disclaimer, let me toss  out some notes and see how future history for the balance of this year could play out.  Some of this will be highly speculative, while other parts are hot out of this morning’s news runs. 

    Let’s toss it ALL on the table and see what the connections are, shall we?

    1.  The first “open bin” has to do with the passing of Ariel Sharon recently.  That’s because of the rabbi Kaduri prophesy that with his passing, the Jewish Messiah will arrive shortly thereafter to announce himself in Jerusalem.

    We have two population groups awaiting a Messiah/Imam to show up.  Followers of Messiahs/Imams have done great wars in the past.  The Muslim Conquests and the Crusades are sufficiently large as to draw attention from an investment standpoint. Happening today they would be world-changers.

    This is because of the huge fractions of population that were swept into partisanship roles during these events in the past.  Wars like these do, indeed, change everything.

    2.  The data collection has to do with the motion within greater Islam at the moment where we see two roots of that tree twisting about for supremacy.  One sees it in the strong internal dissent between the Sunni and Shi’ite sects and it works out in places such as Syria.  There, we have a strongly backed Shi’ite government versus a Sunni insurgency. Who will drive?

    3.  It becomes even more clear when I get emails, like this one, from our news analyst fellow up in Winnipeg:

    Dear Mr. Ure,

    Now that the UAE is drafting a mandatory conscription law, Qatar apparently introduced one late in 2013, and Kuwait could be on the same path, one wonders why this and why now?

    Regards,

    So yes, we see the increasing levels of militarism within Islam.  80+ % of the country is Sunni.

    4.  And yet another bin that’s collecting data has to do with the huge investment that the government of (mostly Sunni)  Saudi Arabia has made in keeping Egypt friendly to their views of the world.  And reports of the growing informal relationships being tilled between the Saudis and Israel over the upcoming role of Syria.  See references to “Frenemies.”

    5.  This morning, another set of horrors emerges in Syria as a purported photographer for the Assad government has escaped to the West with damning pictures that [allege] to show upwards lots of young dead men – victims of alleged brutality of the Assad regime.

    6.  But at the same time, while the bodies are stacking up, readers seem sometimes confused by our reports contributed from “warhammer” as we call him, that point out many of this underlying currents.  Here’s a typical reader concern:

    “I do take issue with your war-gamer pal.  Now, maybe he is only presenting strictly the war gamer’s plans, as derived from their personal psychopathic power & warmongering personalities.  But I do think it is a disservice to your readers to not at least mention that Iran has never preemptively attacked or invaded another country in over 200 years.  Iran wants to stay out of the usury game.  They want nothing to do with the IMF.  They also kicked out the Shah, America’s puppet.  They have lots of reasons to dislike us.  And, they were signers on to the IAEA, until they realized it was so rigged.  Israel has refused to sign on to the IAEA.  Even if Iran were to get nukes, and who could blame them, I doubt they would ever use them preemptively, at least if recent history is any indicator.”

    And yes, that’s all true, so please consider it mentioned and reminded.

    Read More

    Paths to Global War

    We begin with the nagging thought (with the markets closed, and all, which we’ll get to) that 2014 could be the year that sets us firmly on the path toward global war.  It’s not a pretty thought, but it may have some basis in fact.

    Let’s begin by taking a look at spiraling events in Ukraine, which our Winnipeg news analyst sums up this way:

    Dear Mr. Ure,

    “Espreso TV” has a live feed on “YouTube” scanning the locale of recent Ukrainian confrontations. Beneath such moving pictures of confusion, Wikipedia’s page of Ukraine’s ruling Party of Regions offers helpful links for reading of well-heeled support, as well as pointing to a Ukrainian president allegedly schooled with American lobbyist knowledge.

    Read More

    Coping: Global Warming’s Return?

    It’s a holiday.  Well, kind of, sort of, and in a way.

    Despite that, I need to draw your attention to the fine work being done by colleague Grady over at the www.nostracodeus.com site.

    I was going to put out a “heads up” on Friday when we started seeing a lot of “earthquake” mentions in the data – in the absence of a quake (odd thing, that).  And so this morning (more on less as expected, the quake headlines are all over the mainstream with events this morning down in New Zealand.

    To be sure, this is not to make any claims that Nostracodeus can actually see the future.  We just notice that often times, in advance of a major news story (Death of Nelson Mandela, for example) we get lots of “dead” and “president” popping up in data runs in very close proximity.

    Which gets us to a couple of items pending which should be make headlines here shortly.

    One was something in the Saturday report, another report of a “president” and “dies” popping up, but we have no means to know is that is somehow related to today’s holiday (and the coming President’s Day next month) or to something else.  We shall wait and see.

    And WRF does this have to do with global warming?

    Ah…I was just getting to that.

    The really tweaky thing to pop out when Grady ran data Sunday was “Out of Hibernation” making its arrival.  More over here.

    Here’s how being a Junior News Detective works:  You look at Nostracodeus results and spy the words that are bubbling up out of the noise.  Like Hibernation.

    Then you notice the weather:  Grady’s not too far from Edmonton in Saudi Alberta, which we call it because of all their oil resources.  And up there, the weather has been warmish the last several days.

    Not only that, but down here in Texas, we’ve had a week or longer of what Pappy would have called “good working weather”  Lows around 50, highs around 70…just the ideal conditions to be doing outside work of almost any sort.

    Couple all that with the drought building out west, the lack of rain in the Central Valley of California, and the prospect of sky-bound vegetable prices, and you can almost get the sense that maybe the animals (and bugs and snakes…) will come out of hibernation earlier than usual this year.

    But wait, putting on the Sherlock hat, a quick search of Google’s news indexing shows that “hibernation” is not breaking early, just yet

    Instead, there’s a pile of news surrounding the European Space Agency’s “Rosetta” spacecraft which is waking up from two years of what?  Hibernation.

    But our quest doesn’t end there.

    Another lead to follow shows up in The Guardian which proclaims that “Unchecked global warming ‘will double extreme El Niño weather events‘”

    All of which leaves us with a big “bag of evidence” to ponder. 

    We know that Rosetta is the source of a lot of “hibernation” lingo.  Yet, we also know that down at the “Humans as co-creators of reality” level, ideas mush, mulch, and meander.  This gives us strong reason not to be surprised if reports of animals coming out of hibernation early begin to appear.

    And that will spell the return of the Global Warming Panic that the transfictional media keep trying to whip up.

    One of the best views on the whole Warming thing come courtesy of read Joe M…

    George,

    Just read a British news article about the West Coast drought.  That led to the Maunder Minimum which led to the Little Ice Age (LIA) which was preceded by the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) which according to Wikipedia was similar to our climate today.  Anyone living during the MWP would certainly be concerned about global warming.  Anyone living during the LIA would certainly be concerned about global cooling (and the increase in volcanic activity…).  Those caught in the middle would be confused.

    Thank the Renaissance and advent of good, scientific recordkeeping.

    Throw the MWP and LIA onto a time graph, map meteorological and crop data, overlay a K-wave or five and adjust to fit, insert Elliott waves, and adjust further for man-made interventions.  Because humans en masse are predictable, voila!

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    Peoplenomics: Trending Out the Future

    Two things to talk about this morning, since we’re way ahead of the California Drought which has become a big deal, as we expected it would: One is how the Millennial mindset and new minimalism may work against Boomers trying to unload property for years to come. And the second is an assessment of west coast port data. But, before we look under those carpets, let’s pick up our drought discussion that we forecast would pop in last weekend’s report… More for Subscribers ||| SUBSCRIBE NOW!

    Snowden: Snooping Every Text / Dishfire

    The latest disclosure (nightmare) for the NSA and the Obama damage control teams is the report in the UK Guardian this morning about a program called Dishfire which reads more than 200-million text messages per day.  Probably yours.

    Oh,; and the really bad part of this?  (Like that’s not bad enough?)  There was no control over whose texts were involved.  It was uncontrolled and aimed at everyone. Once again, proof, as I see it, that the FISA Court has failed.  Wallpaper at its finest

    The next act due (center ring) at the National Security Circus, will be Ringmaster Obama calling later today for an “overhaul” of the NSA phone data collection system.  Yeah, sure, you betcha.   But, like I’ve told you before, they wouldn’t do the reform unless the replacement was in the wings.

    And gee, gosh, what’s that building outside Provo for, anyway?

    Or, will an already bad idea become an outsourcing project?    As country we can’t walk and chew gum, it seems.

    Waiting for California’s Drought Exodus

    California Burning

    As we discussed in the drought story yesterday, our preliminary pencil-pushing suggests that a modern-day Dust Bowl equivalent in California could displace 4-million people (or more) if rain doesn’t come along soon.

    And this morning there’s no sign of it.  Nearly 4,000 people have been evacuated from their homes in the San Gabriel mountains where a fire is up to almost 2,000 acres.  Three campers have been arrested for supposedly starting it.

    Further to that discouraging drought map I showed you Thursday, here’s a report in the San Joe Mercury News headline “California Drought:  Three more months of dry weather like, National Weather Service announces.”

    And in San Francisco, which should be coming up on 2 1/2-inches of rain for the year, we’re still stuck at one one-hundredth on an inch for the year.  No rain for the next week or two, either.

    I’m waiting for the “shower on odd days only if your last name begins A through L” to come along.

    Say, you don’t think Warren Buffett bought personal care products stock Henkel do you?  Maybe the sage of Omaha looked at the long range drought forecasts and looked up, as we did, who owns the Right Guard deodorant brand…

    More after this…

    Housing Starts a Mess

    A picture is worth a thousand words, but being too lazy to gin those up, we’ll simple serve a side order of Press Release stew here…

    BUILDING PERMITS
    Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 986,000. This is 3.0 percent (±1.1%) below the revised November rate of 1,017,000, but is 4.6 percent (±1.1%) above the December 2012 estimate of
    943,000.

    Single-family authorizations in December were at a rate of 610,000; this is 4.8 percent (±1.0%) below the revised November figure of
    641,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 350,000 in December.

    An estimated 974,700 housing units were authorized by building permits in 2013. This is 17.5 percent (±0.8%) above the 2012 figure
    of 829,700.

    HOUSING STARTS
    Privately-owned housing starts in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 999,000. This is 9.8 percent (±10.7%)* below
    the revised November estimate of 1,107,000, but is 1.6 percent (±11.9%)* above the December 2012 rate of 983,000.

    Single-family housing starts in December were at a rate of 667,000; this is 7.0 percent (±8.9%)* below the revised November figure of
    717,000. The December rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 312,000.

    An estimated 923,400 housing units were started in 2013. This is 18.3 percent (±2.9%) above the 2012 figure of 780,600.

    HOUSING COMPLETIONS
    Privately-owned housing completions in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 744,000. This is 10.8 percent (±9.9%)
    below the revised November estimate of 834,000, but is 10.7 percent (±11.7%)* above the December 2012 rate of 672,000.

    Dangerous Data: Double-Digit Money Spike

    We notice this morning that the Dow last Friday closed very near 14,437 while the S&P last week closed at 1,842,37.  With yesterday’s close, the S&P was up a few points and the Dow was down 20 for the week. The Techs, basis last week, are doing a little better.

    As long as the market holds above the 1808 S&P level, odds of a running correction before going higher seem to be in place. 

    But for now, the futures point to a Dow which would end the week within a few points of last Friday…which means the whole of the financial industry could have taken the week off and it wouldn’t have mattered…

    “Warning Will Rogers”

    That’s the foreplay.  Now the news….

    Thursday’s M1 reading shot up to a dramatic 11.4% 3-months annualized rate.  And, what’s more, the M1 on a six-months annualized basis is now 10.0%.

    M2 was going up at a more measured 6.2%, but with the jack-up of M1 we can’t help but wonder is the Santa Season didn’t get a little goose from the Fed just to make sure the holidays didn’t collapse?

    I wish I was selling specialty ink to the money industry.

    At 9:15 this morning, the Fed will release the Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization reports.  A lot of good news and the markets could move up smartly from here ahead of the month-end Fed meeting.

    French-Style Politics

    Got to love politics in France.  Pictures over at Breitbart this morning of a load of manure being dumped on the doorstep of government give us all kinds of ideas.

    Not of which we can speak, write, or text.

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    Coping: Prepping for Oil Price Whacks & EviroCops

    Back on terra firma, Oilman2 added something to think about if you’re considering that idea I mentioned (buy “proven reserves” and wait).

    First, read this (it’s short):

    BP Expects Shale Boom in Russia and S. America to Cause Problems for Middle East

    Now, look at CanUSA – 3450 rigs total with 1754 in US & Canada 804 or so.  There are 3450 land rigs in the world…..1754 + 804 = 2558 and 2558/3450 = 74%

    Knowing that Shale gas and oil entail “drill or die” programs due to the nature of their depletion curves, they are proclaiming that the remaining rigs in the world all leave China, Saudi, Africa, Indonesia, etc. and go to Russia, whereupon 26% of the world fleet will perform like the 74% we have here in CanUSA…

    DO NOT even get me going on how dilapidated the majority of the Russian/CIS rigs are (circa 1940 in age)…

    BP is obviously smoking a unique blend of ganja, and we should invite them to meet us in Colorado where we can “share their vision”…

    George, this is why most industry ‘analysts” should be drawn and quartered – they believe anything they hear over a few beers and lack any deductive reasoning capacity. 
    FMTT, can I borrow your vicegrips?

    Oilman2

    We are also thinking through the matter of what’s a “proven reserve.”  Back in the day (when there were real oil analysts you’d be able to get reports that listed in tabular fashion “If oil is $150 then we have Y million barrels recoverable..  If the Price is $80, we have Z barrels recoverable.

    They don’t call them the “good old days” for nothing.

    Today it’s hard to work the numbers.  An oil company might have X in “proven reserves” but the multiplicity of factors leading to an insight on what’s profitable has tossed in so many interdependent variables has to make home calculation damn near impossible.

    Some of the factors that come into play:

    • What’s the current (real) water cut in Saudi Arabia?
    • Is Venezuela stable?
    • How long are current prices expected to remain stable?
    • What’s the public mood and education level in proven reserve areas only recoverable by fracking?
    • What’s the environmental penalty cost if we frack anyway?
    • What’s the US dollar outlook, and how long is China going to keep us afloat?

    I’m not going to tell you where this picture of a new kind of law enforcement came from, but once again, we see how the “federalization” of local police agencies is in full-tilt boogie.

    As one reader tells us:

    LE guys or government bureaucrats who take a 1, 2 or 3-day course and work for counties via the TNRCC. In short, amateur “eco-police” that aren’t likely to know what dihydrogen oxide is….

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    Droughtonomics – California Exodus II: 4-Million?

    While the S&P is off into record setting territory and our Peoplenomics trading model is showing its stuff nicely, we need to consider the impacts of a left-field event that may lead to a California Exodus:  The quickly evolving Drought.

    As you can see in the latest report out this week, the map has a big ugly spot that’s located right over the Central Valley and that’s where a good chunk of the nation’s fresh (and frozen) veggies and fruits come from.

    According to the data released with the report, and I don’t think there’s an issue sharing this because it is BIG news and of public concern:

    “There seems to be no relief in sight as the calendar flips over to 2014. Persistent ridging has kept precipitation at bay for many, leading to record-setting dryness for many locations in California and Oregon; this has become more of an issue of late in Washington as well.

    Even though California sees no changes on this week’s map, more deterioration could be coming soon given the weather pattern, or lack thereof, and concern for water supply, fire and other impacts grows each week the rains and snows don’t come. In fact, many locations in California reported the calendar year 2013 as being the driest on record, smashing previous record dry years (including 1976).

    One such example is Shasta Dam, where only 16.89 inches was reported in 2013, more than 11 inches below the previous record low of 27.99 inches in 1976. Shasta’s calendar year average is 62.72 inches. Upper elevation Sierra station snowpack and snow water equivalent (SWE) values in California have been abysmal for the Water Year (since October 1) as well. The historic low precipitation totals haven’t just been confined to the upper elevations either as dozens of locations have shattered their previous record low calendar year totals.

    In the Pacific Northwest, D1 has pushed northward across western Oregon and into western Washington up to the Canadian border this week. Both snow pack and snow water equivalent SWE levels are very low as we move deeper into the wet season. In Idaho, D0 now covers the entire Panhandle and has pushed into more of extreme northwestern Montana.

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    Coping: Sunset in the Oil Patch

    It’s an article of faith among most folks that we have more oil/energy than we know what to do with.  But, after spending some time with Oilman2 this week, talking through what’s ahead, I’m more convinced than ever that we need to be redirecting our prepping plans slightly to include the prospect of extremely tight energy supplies within the next 5-10 years.

    As I’ve reported to you previously, the data suggests we have been in a slow-motion, rolling top, of Peak Energy and we’re slowly heading lower, rounding down toward the abyss.

    The only thing that is keeping us stable – for the moment – is a kind of floor under oil at $90. 

    Here’s the economics of it in a nutshell:

    If the price of oil drops significantly, then a lot of the “new oil” suddenly doesn’t make sense: In addition to unannounced helicopter visits to oil rigs by the retooled version of the former Minerals Management Service (at a “regulatory fee” $25,000 a pop, a price which gets rolled into oil prices), there’s the increasing cost of rig rentals, seismic studies, liability insurance, and all that. 

    Bottom line?  Forget about really cheap oil.  I doubt that we’ll see $75 oil for a long time, although that really depends on how bad demand collapse is when the stock and bond bubble ends badly in a year or three.

    On the other hand, if the price of oil goes significantly higher, then it pushes inflation through the pipeline.  When that happens, the rental on money begins to rise (interest rates if you’re not awake), labor rates go up and all the bad stuff turns into a horrific vicious cycle.

    Interest rates rise, business collapses, oil demand collapses, and we come back to $100 oil…except it will be $110 oil.  Then another pop up and a collapse back to $120 oil…and what used to be the ‘Merican middle class totters off into the sunset to becomes footnote in history.  We join the illegal immigrants and except for the language, we turn into Mexico. 

    Think of it as the Great Crookification already underway.  We already have the corruption working its way up, the buying of politicians, though shielded as “campaign contributions” is still graft, just better marketed. But, a purchase, nevertheless.  I digress.

    The other problem Oilman2 gripes about is the large number of “worms” in the oil industry.  A worm, in case you  skipped our class “Coon-ass Rig Talk 101,” is roughly the equivalent of a “newbie” in computers. A lot of the young-uns coming up almost need to be burped every time a new joint is turned-up.

    Oil timers who know the rig business are quickly cashing in heading for the exits.  In the rig business an OF is age 45…and many see what’s coming – much  more starkly than makes it into the transfictional media buzz.

    With this as stage-setting, OM2 sent me a follow-up overnight with some details about the latest “hot” area in oil:  The Eagle Ford Shale Play which runs in a band from the lower Rio Grande Valley area of southwest Texas, up to the northeast, passing south of San Antonio and Austin, but stopping a hundred miles, or so, short of our oil country (Palestine Dome).

    From that article OM2 tells me this part is key:

    “We’re drilling shale not because it’s a good idea but because we’ve exhausted all other good opportunities,” he says. “It’s all we got left. When this is done, we’re done.”

    On this shale drilling stuff, I have been right from the get-go. This is the “rolling price plateau” now, and this type of extraction removes recharging mechanism for shallower fields above the Eagle Ford. The 4000′ depth described in this article is the shallowest workable portion of the play – most of it is below 10,000′.

    If you could get onto some of these private ranches and see the mess, smell it everywhere, hit the potholes in all the roads…you would be amazed and not in a happy way.

    This means (for us in the USA) that when we hit the wall on these shale plays, we hit it hard and at a good clip.

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