Monday At The Rock Pile

OK, corporate wage slave, up at an ‘em:  Time to jump on the treadmill like a good little hamster and press your nose toward the cheese for another week…all so we can pay interest which will accrue to the Uber Klassen so they, in turn, won’t have to work and can reinvest their money in continuing to buy corrupt politicians who don’t listen to the people, preferring instead the poison lies of the lobbyists instead.

Boy, am I ever a motivator, or what?

The good news, such as it is, holds that we are likely to see a 25% decline in the Dow and other major indices when people figure out how bad the economy really is. 

If you didn’t catch it, the UK Telegraph article “Europe repeating all the errors of Japan as deflation draws closer” is a real eye-opener.

What people don’t remember is that the Japanese Nikkei 225 index (roughly the Japanese equivalent of our Dow Jones average) was up nearing 40,000 points (yen) back in 1989. Overnight, the Nikkei had a huge rally (2.29%) but even so, it’s been stuck in this area (closing  at 15,650) seemingly forever.

Wait!  You mean the Japanese market was 2 1/2 times higher 25-years ago?

Well, yeah, duh.  Welcome to Depression economics.

That’s evident when you look at the “max timeline” chart of the ^N225 over here at Yahoo Finance, dude.  It also shows the problem that Europe is running into and where the US is going, as well.  The only thing we’re missing is the killer radiation levels, but give it time. 

Crude Lingo Alert: [Remember SBD – silent but deadly – farts?  Fukushima’s like that…]

One of our readers asked this morning if I could explain the robust growth in GDP.  Well, one way to look at it is “channel stuffing” by manufacturers, who are desperate to hit year-end sales targets so they are pushing crap into the warehouses of retailers.  No target hit?  No bonus…

The retailers, in turn, because of the collapsing cost of money (read: zero percent interest rates effectively) can lock in goods cheap today (they believe)  on the theory that prices will come zooming upward as soon as the “recovery” kicks in. 

“Rut Roh” Scooby. Lil’ tardy on that one…

This is all quite circular, don’t you see?  Channel-stuffing makes jobs which makes demand, which creates jobs, which creates spending, which creates channel “sell-through” which is why Ures truly expects some hellacious deals to be had on everything under the Sun in January. Someone in retail is going to wake the ‘f up in January and start to dump.

Check this out:  A chart (through November) of the total business inventories…got it?

Now, let’s look at inventories in 2009 because that was a pretty good indicator of how these things work.  Back then we had…um….call it $1.33 trillion in business inventories.

What would the equivalent level be today?  It would be about $1.447 trillion, using the Minneapolis Fed inflation calculator over here.  But, as you can see, inventories are at about $1.68 trillion (plus or minus a can of soup) today, which means inventory levels are 16% higher, on an inflation-adjusted basis, in the last four 1/2 years.

That’s a mighty big swing.

So:  Here’s what I’m speculating will happen:

a.  The Fed will hint at increasing rates when they meet in late January.

b.  People in retailing will look at their inventories (up 16% on a real basis, remember?) and scream “Holy shit!  How are we going to afford all this inventory if we actually have to pay interest on it?”  Free money was such a nice ride….

c.  Inventory dumping will begin…

d.  Which means profits will fall…

e.  Which means stocks will fall….(*because earnings will fall)

f.  Which means the Fed is now locked into permanent money printing in order to keep the whole financial system from going KA-BLOOEY!  We become like the Japanese!

g.  Which will set off another round of job cuts…

h.  Which will set off a further decline in real estate prices…  (Also due in part to the prospect of those real estate-binging venture groups facing the prospect of actually paying someone back with interest, which is why housing prices are about to level off and maybe head face down…Banks being under pressure to unload their REO (read estate owned) too…

i.  As soon as this dynamic is realized, then what’s left of commercial real estate falls on its butt (again) since with home office automation, what’s the point of paying big bucks for an office?  Everyone has Skpe, Broadband, and Starbucks!  Toss in online banking and who needs a building?  Ever use Quickbooks Online?  Your accounting department can be in Bozeman.

I could, of course go on, but it would make a mighty messy and depressing report.  So I decided to keep it really light and uplifting this morning (and this is the best I could come up with?):

OK, corporate wage slave, up at an ‘em:  Time to jump on the treadmill like a good little hamster and press your nose toward the cheese for another week…all so we can pay interest which will accrue to the Uber Klassen so they, in turn, won’t have to work and can reinvest their money in buying corrupt politicians who don’t listen to the people, preferring instead the poison lies of the lobbyists instead.

If you’re not saving money hand over fist, you’re screwed. 

And even if you are saving money, you’re screwed anyway, because when all this begins to roll (it’s the Debtberg, remember?  90 percent of the Debtberg is invisible…) you’re going to be subject to a “wealth tax” which will roll globally in order for the PowersThatScrewedThingsUp (PTSTU) will take one last turn at the global citizens financial gang-bang before the global version of the French Revolution comes around.

I expect America, unlike other countries (think Iceland) will call BS on what’s coming, but we could roll over Cyprus and Greece-like.  Depends on the marketing.  But if Healthcare is a template, there is no alternative to becoming a Prepper.

The realities were Friday (and still are, Monday) that:

  1. You can’t have more people getting free money than paying taxes
  2. You need REAL jobs in order to pay taxes.  Flipping burgers is counted as a “manufacturing job now” notes a similarly cynical reader.
  3. You don’t have jobs because of automation and robotics and 10-an-hour foreigners.
  4. Until robotics are taxed on parity with humans, and the lie of job-wrecking imports is dispensed with,  this is a one way ride to the financial slaughterhouse.

You see why I love getting up and writing on Monday?  Things are just so crisp and clear…

See Dr. Marc Faber’s comments along the same line, too: “World Center Bankers are going to Bankrupt the World.”  Yeah, we noticed…

In spite of reality, the markets looked flat this morning because the 7% unemployment figure is all based on free money which is unsustainable and as some point the markets will think that part through, too.  I sense one more blow off to the upside and new all time highs.

Then duck.

More after this…

Obamacare:  The latest nightmares

…is the report that “New affordable Care US health plans will exclude top hospitals.”

I don’t know as I’d go so far as to write something like “Shock Claim: Obama worse than a communist.” 

The Russian people brought the Soviet Empire down.  But here in ‘Merica, the People can’t bring down the Lobbyist Empire…far most entrenched. Which is why the Russian peeps had a leg up on us…

Making the rounds on discussion boards are posts like this one which claims “Obamacare seeks to segregate patients/doctors by ethnic races…”  Is this “giving the customers what they want” or something more sinister?  I look forward to my liberal pals to arguing both sides of this one…

Madness on Bordering

Over on the “Tea Party Command Center” site, we see “Texas defies feds: We shut the border down ourselves, said Lt. gov…

NK: The Urge to Purge

Morning seems like a fine time to cover this:  A purge in the ranks of the North Koreans as the kid at the helm has kicked out the party old-line power broker (uncle) who was not playing nicey nice with the People’s resources

Clearly Kim Jong Un “gets it” – namely you have to feed the People…and feed them an occasional scapegoat to hold hunger at bay.  And Uncle will do, nicely.  Shows that no one is above the “law”.

Good management.  But what about Auntie?  Remember, she (and her hubby) defected to the West, had plastic surgery and are in hiding…

Just a guess:  These North Korean leader/people have some serious unresolved family problems!  Poster family for dysfunctional.

Global Warming Joke

The joke’s on Al. It was the Sun, all along.,…d’oh! 

Here’s the latest just out this morning from the Solar Weather Prediction Center which has been counting the extreme lack of sunspots in what I’m selling as Ure’s Minimum…

Australia is getting snow in their summer.

Record snowfalls around Texas from the storm this weekend.  None here, thanks, but colder’n hell.

Cold snap in Oregon.

Point for Gore: Record cold temperature in the Antarctic is being disputed.

I run hot and cold on this climate thing…(wink-wink, budge-nudge)

Laughable Headlines & Stories Department:

Congress Readies a Year-End Dash” flashes the Wall St. Journal.  That’s as believable as Ures truly joining the Bolshoi.

Blah, blah blah, Kardashian, blah,blah, yada, yada…

“US Tech companies call for more controls on surveillance.”  Yes!

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Coping: With a Rare Book Review

It’s not often that I find very much useful in life,  maybe because my life is so damn complicated. 

There’s this here website, there’s the odd client project (slow due to the “recovery” that’s going on, lol), developing a server for a “black project” with a friend/client, building the new room onto house, finishing restoration of a tube-type ham radio for my son, and planning for the kitchen rebuild ahead.  All while keeping up the accounting/taxes and staying current on flying.  Then there’s the www.nostracodeus.com project and fine-tuning our Trading Model for Peoplenomics subscribers…Say…did I mention the four books I’m writing?

Like I said: Complicated

But I’m not the only person in this pickle – since you’re either there or remember it from your own recent experience,

So this morning I can’t say enough good things about Gary Keller’s book The ONE Thing: The Surprisingly Simple Truth Behind Extraordinary Results which will run you $17 bucks at Amazon. Or, if you have a Kindle, it will set you back about $15 bucks here: The ONE Thing.

If you’re already struggling to find time (but still somehow have $264(!!)  laying around, there’s the The One Thing in 30 Minutes – The Expert Guide to Gary Keller and Jay Papasan’s Critically Acclaimed Book.

Now the reason for the recommendation:  It’ll help you focus on doing what needs doing.

In a way, it’s similar in thinking to William Oncken’s classic book Managing Management Time which is still available.  Oncken’s been writing about time management almost forever, seems.  My friend Gaye of www.backdoorsurvival.com and I were talking bout his work (and others in time management) back in the early to mid 1970’s.

Two points from these:

First, a couple of readers have asked “How do you do all the stuff you say you do?”   Well, here are some hints:

  1. Build “walls” in your life.  Allocate only so much time to Task A and when it’s done (as much as it ever will be in allotted time).  Move on to Task B.
  2. Make a list to keep yourself focused. A short list of a dozen “outcomes” you’re building.
  3. Streamline and find every efficiency you can in order to get things done.  The idea is to get things done, not to reinvent the wheel at every turn.

Here’s what I did Sunday, just for discussion:

a.  Tested a new breakfast (details in the “Around he Ranch” part in a minute.

b.  Solve a half-dozen damn difficult computer issues around the house: All kinds of new security updates, anti-virus and the firewalls, defrags, file checking, speed tuning, network rearranging.

c.  Made spaghetti.

d.  Searched for the  easiest way to build a LAMP server… and found the Linux version of XAMMP

e.

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Just out for Subscribers: Peoplenomics Annual Forecast (1)

While it’s true that I have made more money on the short side of the market than the long side, it’s also true that I’m pretty much an agnostic. That’s because the market is going to move as it will. So anyone who undertakes to manage their own money is well advised to understand hard reality. Toward this, a few classic books exist, such as William Gann’s “Truth of the Stock Tape.” This morning’s report will be nice, short, and to the point as we consider what may be out there in 2014.

Numbers for Breakfast and a Side of Sausage

A nice cold, snowy, wintry morning deserves something nice and hot for breakfast.  So along with the usual two-cups worth of reading material today we’ll serve up some hot economic data and a side of sausage.

Our first serving is the Jobs Almighty number which lives more formally in the Employment Situation Report just released by the Labor Department.

The unemployment rate declined from 7.3 percent to 7.0 percent in November, and total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 203,000, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in transportation and warehousing, health care, and manufacturing.

Household Survey Data

Both the number of unemployed persons, at 10.9 million, and the unemployment rate, at 7.0 percent, declined in November. Among the unemployed, the number who reported being on temporary layoff decreased by 377,000. This largely reflects the return to work of federal employees who were furloughed in October due to the partial government shutdown.

As always, we look at the Labor Participation Rate which is 63% this morning, and in a Christmas-sized miracle, it’s up 2-10th’s of one percent.

Dow futures have spikes to 86 up on the Dow.  Crack may be this good, but the jobs number is legal.

“OK, Ure, how’d that come about?”

Heck if I know.  Looks to me like the economy might really be getting some traction.  Free money has to go somewhere.  And how many quantitative whatchamacallits are we at now?

Even the CES Birth/Death Model which estimates jobs into existence decreased the happy talk by 15,000 jobs.

As to whether people who had extended benefits run out this month (many more in coming months) are in some kind of statistical limbo won’t be known for a few months.

Meantime, we have the monthly PhD’s flipping burger’s number which is the underemployed and underutilized people which show up in the U-6 data.  This improved a good bit down to 13.2% from 13.8% last month.

Magic of seasonal employment, methinks.  Pardon me if I hold the Ho-Ho until March.

Or, at least hold it until you read about disappearing incomes in the Bureau of Economic Analysis data which is also out this morning:

Personal income decreased $10.8 billion, or 0.1 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) decreased $23.6 billion, or 0.2 percent, in October, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $32.7 billion, or 0.3 percent.  In September, personal income increased $64.3 billion, or 0.5 percent, DPI increased $62.1 billion, or 0.5 percent, and PCE increased $23.8 billion, or 0.2 percent, based on revised estimates.

More people working – for less money!  Exactly the kind of thing to expect in a lifestyle collapsing economy, like I’ve been saying.

The punch line part is the Personal Savings Rate reference; always a knee-slapper:

“Personal saving — DPI less personal outlays — was $604.9 billion in October, compared with $660.7 billion in September.

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Coping: A Chat With Prepperclaus

“Ho, ho, ho, George, of COURSE I’d be pleased to do an interview with you!”

I’d spied a fat old man, mid 70’s by the look of him,  wandering around our ranch/outpost out by the carport in the wilds of East Texas.  He was staring down the barrel of my 9 mm Ruger and acting like it was an every day occurrence..

Upon hearing my command “Halt!  Raise your hands slowly…” he announced an unlikely claim:

I am the REAL Prepperclaus and you need to interview me.

“Are you shittin me?  I’ve got a SWAT Team on speed dial, mister.  So just keep your hands where I can see them and explain yourself.  This is Texas and this is private posted land.  Only a damn idiot would be here uninvited and you look close enough to an idiot for me…”

“OK, OK, I know you’re a little tense, George, but please allow me to explain.

In your column yesterday you hinted that Santa might be a marketing figure and it was a very catchy article.  Not viral, but it did  spawn a lot of talk among the elves, it did.

But you know, Georgie, most of us Joy and Mirth spreaders really are joyous at this time of year.  And your reader,  The Wizard,  was right…you did miss reporting on some of the really evil spirits that put on shows at this time of year…like Black Peter, also known as Zwarte Piet.  Heard of him?

Georgie?  Who was this guy?

“How’d you know about that?  That was in a secured email file…are you connected with the NSA?  We pay our taxes, we inform people, and we keep a crack legal team at the ready…”

“Ho, ho, ho, that’s a good one!  Crack and legal right next to one another…oh, you’re the funny writer…Ho….ho….ho….

No, you silly skeptic, I AM the original Prepperclaus and I’m here to spread the joy of preparation and preparedness.

You were assigned to me by the Head Office because of your Claus clauses, and because the Claus cause was paused by your lack of prepping advice which people need to get from breaking news.”

“Huh?”  I lowered the Ruger, but just slightly.  Whoever this guy was, he was old, didn’t look threatening, and this was getting to be an interesting conversation..

“Your column yesterday reported many things, but of all the headlines you didn’t focus enough on the arrival of bad weather.

And what did you do about it?”

“You mean in the column?”

“Yes, yes…what did you DO about it…”

“Well, I mentioned that Global Warming was having it’s ass kicked.  And I figured when ass-high snow drifts start  stranding people, they’d figure out that this was the time to break out the winter storm gear and get ready for the crap to hit the fan…power outages are something people should ALWAYS be prepared for…”

“But, what did YOU DO after you wrote the column yesterday?”

“Well, I got out my landline phone…it’s an AT&T 210 Corded Phone, Black, 1 Handset and for under $10 bucks on Amazon…”

“And then?”

“I took one of those phones from our supplies over to the house, one to my office, checked the flashlights, and wrote down the local power outage reporting number.  Then I taped 3-by-5 cards with the phone number to each of the phones.

Panama dug out the backup 10,000 BTU ventless propane heating unit for the house and hauled it over.  I checked the small propane tank for Panama’s apartment and the backup catalytic heater for there…

Then Elaine and I baked bread (sourdough French) in the bread machine…”

“And did you ever mention that you’d purchased a bread machine?  Specifically, according to our records a…hmmm…ah… an Oster CKSTBRTW20 2-Pound Expressbake Breadmaker, White for sixty-three dollars?”

“Well, no, I guess I hadn’t mentioned it …but do you really think people would care that we’re doing bread at home in a machine?

“That’s it!  Now you’re getting to my point!”

“Which is what, besides sneaking around and being obscure?”

This was dragging out and the wind was picking up and all I had on was a short-sleeved shirt.  The rotundo fellow looked like he was decked out for Arctic survival school.

“You need to focus more on the things you actually DO around here.”

He gave a sweeping gesture, waving around the property.

“Well, I do report a lot of it…”

“I’m sure some of your readers find your falling off a ladder interesting, but do you ever talk about the REST of it?

How many readers know about that cheap plastic miter gauge on your table saw that you’re trying to find a replacement for, as an example?  You should give people more useful information, like that.

It’s OK to tell them that an aluminum table on a table saw SEEMS like a good idea, but cast iron is probably a better long-term investment.  That kind of thing, do you see?

Report stuff people can ACT on…”

“Like what?”

“Well, like you and Elaine having the debate about that big bull pine tree  over yonder…and that strip of pines out to the west of your office building.  Why not talk about THAT?”

“I figured that the conversations we have are between us and don’t need to be written up…”

How the hell did he know that Elaine doesn’t want me to take down a dozen big tall pines because my elaborate plans to compete with the Tennessee Valley Authority (with my solar power system ) are being seriously hampered by big tree shadows that are blocking direct sunshine?  I’d figured it’s costing me about fifty to seventy-five bucks a month in lost solar power…

“You want me to write up more of the small stuff?”

“I wouldn’t tell  your bride that going Paul Bunyan on her trees is small stuff.

Nor is it small stuff to think for a week on where to put those 10 glass block windows you’ve framed up for your studio/sound/thinking room retreat you’re building.

Anyone can write on the Internet.  The Head Office just wanted me to drop by and mention you need to focus more on keeping it real, relevant, and responsive.

You knew that, I suppose, but my messenger duty was to remind you.

Now I’ve done that and I gotta go…Ho, ho, ho…

“Wait!”

I’d put the gun back in shoulder shoulder holster.  This fellow had as good a line of BS as I’d ever heard.

“Before you leave, I noticed you’re wearing green cammo.  I thought all you Mirthers wore RED suits.  Nice beard, however…

“Your reader Ben already told you the answer to that…you have to listen more closely to your readers.  That’s the responsive part.”

“What he asked was whether it was true ya’ll used to wear GREEN suits prior to Coca Cola doing a marketing campaign  and forcing you to change to RED because it went better with their product color…”

“Well, he’s right, but like you always say, Everything’s a Business Model, isn’t it?  Ho….ho….ho…..

Say…did you watch Tomorrow People’s first season?

“Yeah…how’d you know?

“Watch this….beats a sled six ways to Sunday….”

With that, he raised his right hand over his head, snapped his fingers once and there was a soft ripping sound followed by what looked like a vertical purple rip in….space-time….and he just stepped through it.  And at that very same moment, a brief orchestral hit with a touch of synthesizer came from his direction.

“Hey!  Where’d you go?  Where did you come from???”

The wind was picking up and it had turned bitterly cold.

Then suddenly a voice – sounding far, far away – was heard clearly just above the wind:

“Check the Carol Christian piece in The Houston Chronicle!   Ho…ho…ho….”

I went back in the office and hit the Houston Chronicle site.  Well, I’ll be damned!  There it was as I read:

Ho…ho…ho….

Now, About that Birthday

I am shocked.

Not one single email complaining about my Christmas story yesterday.  Could it be that the Retailing Christmasjack is that real and apparent?

Reader Rose Marie came to my defense:

Hi George,

I almost always enjoy your columns…and the days I don’t are only because I am too busy to sit and really read. But, today’s article on Christmas was exceptionally good and correct. Don’t misunderstand, I am a Christian. But, I am so tired of religion. And one of my favorite sayings that I use quite frequently is ‘everything is a business model’!

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GDP and Percentagewise Disease

Time once again to attempt unraveling one of the most confusing reports ever created:  The Gross Domestic Product numbers out this morning from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.  From their press release, always  a kind of NY Times crossword sort of self-referential percent-speak:

“Real gross domestic product — the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States — increased at an annual rate of 3.6 percent in the third quarter of 2013 (that is, from the second quarter to the third quarter), according to the “second” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 2.5 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the “advance” estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 2.8 percent (see “Revisions” on page 3). With this second estimate for the third quarter, the increase in private inventory investment was larger than previously estimated.

The increase in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from private inventory investment, personal consumption expenditures (PCE), exports, nonresidential fixed investment, residential fixed investment, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by a negative contribution from federal government spending.

Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased. The acceleration in real GDP growth in the third quarter primarily reflected an acceleration in private inventory investment, a deceleration in imports, and an acceleration in state and local government spending that were partly offset by decelerations in exports, in PCE, and in nonresidential fixed investment.

Somewhere, after many minutes of looking for the number, I can to this: $16.8908 trillion, plus or minus a cheeseburger.

Sometime in the next week, or so, I expect the St. Louis Fed data dispenser will hand us a chart that shows the (further or leveling of the) collapse of the velocity of money at M2.

For some unknown reason, rather than provide taxes which would push “dead money” back into circulation, the monetary policy people in America seem to think we can print enough paper money to make things work.  It may – or it may not.

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Coping: Christmasjack and National Gifting Day

Hi.  Mr. Bah-humbug here.  Time for our annual conversation about the realities of Christmas.

Usually, I don’t remind people of these realities until closer to the date, but this morning having been beset by more than the usual number of ads, I felt compelled to make a few points and offer some counterpoint to the building groundswell of retailing madness which overtakes otherwise reasonable people about this time of year.

Fact #1:  Christmas ain’t Jesus Birthday

At least, as near as I can tell, it’s an approximation/story which is at the core of a marketing campaign.  If you can think like a quant, at least think like a marketer.

Religions are, at one level  (and maybe several) marketing organizations.  When the Christian Church moved from the eastern Med and started working its way up into the core of Europe, what was encountered were a lot of pre-existing religions, such as the Wicca (off toward France/England), the Druids, and the Nordics.  And those Teutonic types.

In order to counter the influence of the pre-existing outfits, the market challenger (to put this is cold boardroom terms) needed a new campaign.  The campaign would need to be an “all-inclusive” affair, too.  Something that could take the existing market conditions (e.g. pre-existing religions) and usurp their power/hold on the target market.

Presto!

Wiki “Yule” off in yon Wikipedia and you’ll find Ures truly SYN (sh*ts you not):

Yule or Yuletide (“Yule time”) is a religious festival observed by the historical Germanic peoples, later being absorbed into and equated with the Christian festival of Christmas. The earliest references to Yule are by way of indigenous Germanic month names (Ærra Jéola (Before Yule) or Jiuli and Æftera Jéola (After Yule). Scholars have connected the celebration to the Wild Hunt, the god Odin and the pagan Anglo-Saxon Modranicht.

The marketing view of this time of year would hold that the “Challenger usurped the positioning of the existing player, consolidated around key repositioning elements and capitalized on what was then New Media (choirs, chants, and so forth in Big Churhces) in order to gain a higher conversion factor.”  Right, then.

I suppose it’s rude in here to point out that “conversion factor” is also equivalent to “sales conversions” in that each prospect (already owning a pre-existing belief product) ended up tithing oodles to the Challenger.

The bigger the hoopla around Christmas, the more conversions were there to be had by repositioning the existing ways as “backward,” “untrue,” and my favorite pejorative: “Pagan.”

Of course, not everyone “bought.” 

In fact, when you think about it, the task of converting a million, or so, poor people in the countryside into large revenue streams is fairly daunting stuff.  Especially when the tools are the Bible that’s been retooled countless times and (in 1582) the introduction of the Gregorian Calendar that replaced the Julian Calendar which has been adopted at the (First) Council of Nicaea in 325 A.D.  Date magic.

Near as most historians have found, Christmas didn’t appear until the 4th century and became the marketing centerpiece for the Christian marketing in southeast Europe.  Eventually, the stragglers, who might remember the “old ways” were singled out (and banished, killed or stake-fried) in the Inquisition.

Somewhere in here, one can observe that apparently, religions go through a zealous/marketing fervor  some XXX number of years after their founding (and mass marketing program kick-off).  Using this kind of marketing program “timing model” we can see how modern-day Islam is flexing its muscles in the same sort (and timing) way that Christianity did in Europe.  Old with the old, in with the “new & improved” more “true” to roots, and so forth.

None of which is meant to offend, it’s just that when one becomes aware of the lengthy list of Mid Winter Solstice Festivals, one can observe that “consolidation marketing” is a brilliant strategy to employ along with a voluntary 10% tax. 

This “voluntary 10% tithing/tax” is where the Western privacy with economic disclosure springs from:  People would understate their wealth in order to pay less protection money/tithing.  And they needed to keep their personal financial data quiet, lest they be accused of witchcraft or deceit.

Fact #2: Santa Has Been Hijacked; Why?

I won’t pretend to sit in judgment (“not my job”) on the “rightness” or “wrongness” of how the marketing campaign was carried out.

But I will tell you straight up that the festival theft included that shadowy fellow “Santa Claus” who seemed to behave in some bizarre habits.  But he also couldn’t seem to read the calendar well, since he was moved from December 6 to December 25 – which means even the (early Christian) Santa was displaced almost three weeks to make the church marketing program (CMP) work better.

Once again, the hard reality of a Wikipedia entry must be dealt with:

Santa Claus, also known as Saint Nicholas, Father Christmas, Kris Kringle and simply “Santa“, is a fantasy figure with legendary, mythical, historical and folkloric origins who, in many western cultures, is said to bring gifts to the homes of the good children on the night before Christmas, December 24. However in some European countries children receive their presents on St. Nicholas’ Day, December 6.[1] The modern figure of Santa Claus was derived from the Dutch figure of Sinterklaas, which, in turn, was part of its basis in hagiographical tales concerning the historical figure of Christian bishop and gift giver Saint Nicholas. During the Christianization of Germanic Europe, this figure may have absorbed elements of the god Odin, who was associated with the Germanic pagan midwinter event of Yule and led the Wild Hunt, a ghostly procession through the sky.

I’ve heard two schools of thought on why Santa had such a strong love of children, bringing them toys, or lumps of coal.

One is pleasant enough not to mention practical:  It goes to the idea that back in preindustrial times, a single person could not “make it alone” because times were hard, there was no power company, no welfare, no phones to call for help.  All people had was one-another and it was for this reason that children were celebrated – they were a sign of future familial, wealth.

But the darker version of Santa is much, much more grim. Since the peoples of Europe, targets of the mass marketing campaign, were “uncultured,” is it possible that systemic child abuse was somehow in play?  Could it be the presents for the kids for “being good” was really a social code word for something else?  Like silence bought?  Speak up, kid, and you’re toast.  “Silent night.” 

The darker side language, when all else is removed (like all the emotional hooks programmed in societally) and it does look pretty ugly when you run it through linguistic filters, even the crude ones we use around here.

We’ve read enough about religious groups abusing children (and lately a lot of cash settlements of lawsuits against one church in particular) to at least keep an open eye toward such behavioral misdeeds and wonder if there’s not something broken in the human mind once a certain level of holding power/sway over others is achieved?  “Absolute power corrupts, absolutely…”  Merry what-mas?

Fact #3:  Then Santa was ‘Jacked

Our “data-based view of Life” goes on to suggest that since about 1850, when Santa Claus really came into his own…

“…This image became popular in the United States and Canada in the 19th century due to the significant influence of Clement Clarke Moore‘s 1823 poem “A Visit From St. Nicholas” and of caricaturist and political cartoonist Thomas Nast.”

…that yet another marketing challenger arrived.  A slow rise, almost like a start-up – this new market sector would not begin its meteoric rise to dominance until after 1900, or so.

I speak of the new sector owners: Retailers.

Just as the early Christian Church was mass marketing to Druids, we see a similar pattern of marketing usurpation and exploitation in how the Retails implemented their strategy.

Notice that they are continuously marketing “Just in time for Christmas” and “Christmas comes but once each year.”  It’s the old “scarcity builds demand” track.  Solid.

Thus, their marketing campaign is built on the success of the previous Christian positioning.  This is a very common strategy in marketing.  If a challenger wants to build on an existing base of good, well-found marketing, then simply steal top of mind dominance and all it your own.

And how did retailers steal Santa?  

Once again, observe the data which made Santa “appear” for all the “good little girls and boys” at the point-of-purchase (PoP) location!

Why, it’s frigging brilliant!  And none dare call if marketing!

To summarize:  What we can discern are intergenerational marketing programs which have evolved as a series of “check” statements and to these we can assign approximate campaign dates.

  • Early Middle Ages:  Initial marketing campaign period:  5th-15th centuries.  Positioning concept:  Check us out.”
  • 15th to 17th centuries:  Confirm brand ownerships.  Positioning concept “Check your brand loyalty”  Witchcraft trials and Inquisition for those who don’t purchase.
  • 18th-20th centuries: Relaunch of product with a new figurehead (Santa) for the youth market which was in some ways similar to the Classic Coke campaign.

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Scoring Our Trading Model

As we continue to pull bits and pieces together for 2014’s annual forecast, it’s time to see how well our Aggregate Index-based trading model would have done if you had done NOTHING but traded our timing model from last year about this time until present. At a time when banks are paying a crummy 0.1% (or less) on savings accounts, this system has been a huge winner. You oughta be impressed as hell when I run through the numbers with you. As the gurus of “Big Data” will tell you “data trumps gut” almost every time and this year was a hard lesson for me in not trusting my own model!

Learn to Sew!

Yes, fame and fortune could be yours, if you learn to sew.

Human flesh that is.   Says here in this morning’s NY Times that a each stitch is now over $500-bucks

Of course the $10- aspirin is a pretty good racket, too.  Learn to sew and push pills is my new reincarnation plan.  Now if I can only dream up a way to do it without $150K in student loan debt…$5 per stitch for the doc, balance on loans?

Market Takes a Pause

Worrywarts are back in control on the Street this morning with the futures sagging after a little pullback yesterday.  When I looked (over here), the Dow was looking down 60 points or so.  

There’s also be a decline in the POG (price of gold for newbies)…it’s down to a five-month low.

Much of the (so-called) economic recover has been related to falling interest rates.  As the yield on bonds (and bank accounts) have plummeted, the small earnings turned in by stocks have looked (comparatively) pretty good.  Ergo, up, up, and away on the indices.

But when the Fed sends everyone into rehab (by easing their money-printing festival, also know as financial crack) that’s going to drive up rates and, as you can see in the five-year chart of the 10-year Treasury note over here, it’s starting to look like the bottom may be in for rates.

As I pointed out in yesterday’s report, Greenspansonian logic aside, Robert Shiller’s concerns about an overvalued market make even more sense today.  And a reasonable Dow (13,000 or lower) makes perfect sense.

If auto sales, which will be released later today, fall to the darker side of forecasts, the market might be down 100 or more by the close.  Or, this could be turnaround Tuesday…we’ll just wait and see.

In the Co9nstruction Spending report, we see that:

he U.S. Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that construction spending during October 2013 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $908.4 billion, 0.8 percent (±1.8%)* above the September estimate of $901.2 billion. The October figure is 5.3 percent (±2.1%) above the October 2012 estimate of $863.1 billion.

And while a 5.3% increase in spending sounds good, remember that there’s been a huge increase in the money supply (printing).  M2 is up 6.5% compared with a year ago, so anything less than 6.5% increases in construction bucks seems to me like no growth at all.

Hand me some of them meds, and I’ll try to look at it a little more optimistically. Or pass the pipe…

Talk is Cheap

Veep Joe Biden is heading to Asia shortly to see what can be done to hand out chill pills to the Japanese and Chinese who are slowly upping the ante over the Senkaku Islands area.

The islands are about 190 air miles from China’s coast, about 110 miles from Taiwan, and 95 miles, or so, from Okinawa which the Japanese claim.

While this may not seem like a big deal (rocks in ocean, who cares?) as always under our “Everything’s a Business Model” thinking, a quick read of Wikipedia reveals what?

After it was discovered in 1968 that oil reserves might be found under the sea near the islands,[9][10][11][12][13] Japan’s sovereignty over them has been disputed by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the Republic of China (ROC, commonly known as Taiwan) following the transfer of administration from the United States to Japan in 1971.

So there you have it:  Another front opens in the Manufacturer’s Resource Wars which, although it’s not apparent till you think about it, is what has been driving globaltics for the past dozen years plus…

More after this…

No Luck, Yingluck

The prime minister of Thailand has dismissed calls for her resignation.  But with police allowed demonstrators to get close to the seat of government, in what’s called an “easing of tensions.”  Which, as these things go, should last only a few days before crap lights up again.

Middle East “Lets Make a Deal” Time

To some, the idea of praying at a particular wall wouldn’t be such a big deal.  But, to Jewish activists who want to pray at Jerusalem’s Temple Mountain, it’s a very big deal, especially to the Muslim world which considers it their space.

Our resident war gamer picks it up from there:

On the surface, Netanyahu seems to be upping the ante, or ‘upping yours’ to anyone who is not an Israeli.

Know what I think?  This could potentially be a part of any ‘compromise’ Netanyahu demands from Sunni led Saudi Arabia for doing what will surely be the lion’s share of the dirty work against their Shi’ite rival Iran.  Minimalizing Iran will also likely stabilize Syria and marginalize Hezbollah, as both are sponsored by the Iranians.

Yes, the Saudi’s could rather easily import nukes ‘on loan’ from Pakistan to counter Iran and the long suspected Israeli arsenal, but that runs entirely counter to the Saudi monarchy’s goal of a nuclear free Middle East.  If Iran is actually taken down by Israel with help from the Saudis, quid-pro-quo tradeoffs could be a large part of any agreement once the dust settles.  You can let your imagination run free as to what other trade-offs could be possible if some semblance of security ever truly settles over the area – never mind that any such security would have resulted from what would surely be a very costly war in terms of regional blood and treasure.

Cheers,  “Warhammer”

Oh, and in the midst of some of the major parties trying to work things out, looks more and more like our president will soon announce a trip to Tehran.  Oh, sure, the WH denies such a think is in the wings, but the more they deny, the more it seems likely.  So just when some of the parties figure out a deal along with come the peacemaker……you can probably sketch out how well this will work out.

China We Have Heard On High

Gently drifting in from the Winnipeg bureau and our snooze analyst there…

Dear Mr. Ure,

Is the Chang’e-3 mission more of an international alliance than first thought?

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Coping: With a Dose of Dowse

Dowsing, which we talked about earlier, has really brought out the comments.  And some of them are pretty darned interesting.  Here’s one from the Wiz, for example:

My maternal grandfather was a dowser… Dowsed a well for my Dad back in ’60?  ’61? when he was building a new house.  That one never went dry.   Grandpa never used metal rods… he was the classic forked-stick-palms-up style dowser…but he said fruitwood worked best.
Mom couldn’t dowse, but said it skips a generation…  When I tried it, the stick dipped straight down every t time I crossed the water main that passes through my driveway & back yard. So I guess maybe it does skip.

Haven’t had the opportunity to look for something I didn’t know was there, but no opportunities have presented themselves.
Best Regards
Wizard.

There’s more, too…like this from WF…

Hello George,
it was interesting to see what you had to say about DOWSING! My  life brought me all over the world – from Europe to South America and the US. In 1980 I caught Gold Fever in California and worked my own claim for a while. I found good gold, especially with home-made dowsing rods (coat hangers) and NO experience.

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CyberMonday & the Tale of Two Economists

Sometimes it’s a joy to be a writer – and this morning is one of those times – because stories are floating about that are just screaming for comment.  And before we get into the Grim (credit card) Reaper report, it’s important to hear just how disconnected much thinking on the economy is.  Let me explain what I mean:

We begin with a report (over here) in which former Fed Deity (Sir) Alan Greenspan sees no bubble in the stock market even though we are at never-before-seen highs.

Does the word Ludacris mean anything outside of Atlanta?  Oh!  Ludicrous then…

Take the Dow from January of 2000 (11,723 and change) and pop it into the Federal Reserve of Minneapolis inflation calculator and you will find that just to keep even, the Dow really ought to be where?  15,897.

To be sure, the retired Housing Bubblator himself can make a convincing case, especially since we’re only 190 points above what made sense based on early 2000 data.

Still, Greenspan’s remark only makes sense if you’ve kicked the gingko biloba and have a worse memory than a chicken; in other words, you forget that on the week ending 10/15/2001, the Dow closed at 9,204.11.

WHICH if we were so audacious and disrespectful as to plug into the same renegade Minneapolis Fed calculator, might give us a more reasonable present-day Dow around 12,481 as a kind of “sensible outlook” number.

Which means – if I can handle the calculator after foody binging  – that Greenspace is not admitting that we could be more than 3,500 points into Bubble Country.  I must have missed mention that M2 money supply is up 9.2% annualized on a three-month basis.  How could someone overlook that?

Ah, but Ures truly has no creds as an economist, being only a dogged journalist with a no-name school MBA.  So I won’t expect you to trust lil ‘ol me.

But would you trust Nobel winning economist (and co-developer  of the honest Case Shiller/S&P Housing Index that we cite repetitiously as the gold standard in housing data) Robert Shiller?

Robert Shiller says that he is “Most worried”: about the US market being in a bubble.” (duh!)  Man after my own bearish heart.

Now, in all honesty, there is nothing wrong with playing a bubble.  On my www.peoplenomics.com website, our Aggregate Index trading model (which is for amusement, not financial advice, of course) is up more than 60% for the year (formal reconciliation will follow this week for subscribers) so as long as you’ve got a tool which let’s you hang on to the end (and see the end coming, which we do) then you can do just fine.  Bubbles for fun and Beechcraft in our case.

Right now, our current read of things is that we will likely see one more upthrust perhaps for another month, or two.  But then, about the time everything else is going to pot, we should be a marvelously playable decline.  (See the Coping Section for one possible – outlier – driver.)

But the point to be made as we again sally forth to place nose upon grindstone as good wage slaves of the corporate state, is that like broken watches, which are right twice a day, so too are economists. 

I’d give the ‘Spansonian view 90-days or less, and then Shiller’s view ought to rotate into the Genius circle, front and center.

But that’s no guarantee…just a sense of of things will work out as ‘Merica comes to terms with a declining standard of living under the thumb of (most recently) an insurance industry which has captured government to be its “enforcer” joining hands with Big Pharma which had previously led the way with government enforcement of vaccines and such.

‘Mericans sitting on their wallets and stories like this one about how weekend sales declined, are evidence that the New Minimalist/Prepper Mindset  has taken root. 

About the only guy to real cut a fat hog this holiday season seems to be Warren Buffett whose railroads will benefit in some measure if I read this right from more than half a billion plus your tax money subsidizing railroad work.  Falls to the bottom line, does it not?

That begins to get off track, except to sardonically  note that while you’re tinkering with H.O. scale gear, the real HO HO HO plays for  a different group of folks on different kinds of rails.

Campaign Contributors, perhaps?  They, as always, will have a very effing merry time, indeed.

Amadrone Dot Com

Madison Avenue Mike noticed that the HY Times has picked up on the CBS story about how Amazon is eyeing this new model airplane hobby  drone industry as have a potential place in the future of instant retailing.  It’s in the “gray lady” Bits section over here.

I can’t fault Bezos for trying to keep a leg up on the competition, and I figure it’s only a matter of time till my local delivery buddy has to head for joystick school.  With luck, he’ll be retired first, but that’s the kind of thing on our future-scope.

One thing that’s troubling, though, is how the FAA will regulate drone traffic which  has the potential to cause mid-air collisions with real (pilot driven and licensed) aircraft.

I can hardly wait to call in…

“Tyler Tower Musketeer 12-Lima mid field left downwind runway 13, we just nicked a  delivery drone with 16-inch deli-style and two quarter-pounders…looked like two fries, in there, too…”

“12-Lima call the tower…that was our lunch…”

Hold Your Pickle?

Speaking of which, Tyler will get lunch today, but in 100 cities, fast food strikes are going around

The odd history of the ‘Merican labors movement continues to unfold.  Dave Beck organized laundry truck drivers (becoming Teamsters) so we expect any day for a new generation of labor boss to organize fry cooks.  I kinda like the “International Brotherhood of Eatsters” but the odds of that catching on as a moniker are slim to none though it has a nice tone to it.

Certainly better than the “International Association of Frymen and Burgermeisters” or the “International Lunch and Whenever Union” – a kind of latter-day ILWU, and here’s one to Harry’s memory…  Could AFL-CIO come mean “American Fried Lunch, Cholesterol Included Optionally”?

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Coping: Lunar Chinese Year & Directorate 153

There are some days I ought to be producing “made for TV” movies and this is one of them.  Why, if I were a writer of any repute at all, I’d already have this puppy in production.  Since I’m not, however, I will simply write a really short screenplay for you to read.

Opening Scene:  We see an ultra-modern minimalist office with a couple of gray dudes.  One (older and wearing a suit and obviously in charge) is sitting at a desk and is obviously “in charge” while a younger fellow (only wisps of gray) in a lab coat is handing him a document.

Geek:  Chief, we just got this latest data run out about China and their successful launch of the Chang’e-3 Lunar mission.  Not only is the story all over Xinhau this today (this part isn’t fiction) but you can see in this data run from those fools at the www.nostracodeus.com project that “moon madness” has overtaken the Chinese state media machine!

Zoom In:  We read a snip from a just completed word-frequency table which looks at Chinese (English language) sites only:

This part, like the launch in our story, is also not fictitious.  This is all very, very real.  The fiction begins here…

Director:  “No worry, Chambers, the situation is well in hand.  As you undoubtedly know, we have made many forecasts and we have arranged for their to be an absolutely terrible February which will begin our period of incredibly high tensions which will last from almost the beginning of the new year until July sometime…”

Geek:   “But why would we do that, sir?”

Director:  “Chambers, you’ve been with us, what, six years is it?”

Geek: “Yes sir!  And it will be seven years in September.”

Director:  “Well, I suppose your loyalty is beyond question – and you know you will be killed if you reveal anything discussed here, am I correct?”

Geek: “Yes sir….”

Director: “Alright then, I’m going to lay it out for you – and you might want to take notes – but those notes are only for your personal use while here at work, are we clear?”

Geek: “Yes sir…absolutely.”

Director:  “I’m gong to fill in a number of blanks for you and why we absolutely MUST have a period of extreme tension and uncertainty in the US.  For this to make sense, however, we need to begin at the very beginning.  Do you remember what happened on September 13th of 1959?”

Geek:  “Gosh, sir, all I know is that it was a Sunday…”

Director:  “It was also the date that the Soviet Luna 2 mission hit the moon.  And, as you know, bit less than 10 years later, on July 20th of 1969, the first US mission with Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin on Apollo 11 touched down.”

Geek: “I’m not following you, sir.  What does this have to do with a February from Hell here in the US this coming year?”

Director:  “Follow along.  You may be aware of some of the moon landing conspiracy theories.  Look that up in Wikipedia and they I’ll explain…”

Long shot of Geek grabbing an iPad and tapping on it…

Geek  “Well, it says here, sir, that…well, let me read it:

“The first book about the subject, Bill Kaysing‘s We Never Went to the Moon: America’s Thirty Billion Dollar Swindle,[8] was written in 1974,[9] two years after the Apollo Moon flights had ended, and self-published in 1976. The Flat Earth Society was one of the first organizations to accuse NASA of faking the landings, arguing that they were staged by Hollywood with Walt Disney sponsorship, based on a script by Arthur C. Clarke and directed by Stanley Kubrick.[Note 1][10] Folklorist Linda Dégh (de) suggests that writer-director Peter Hyams‘ 1978 film Capricorn One, which shows a hoaxed journey to Mars in a spacecraft that looks identical to the Apollo craft, may have given a boost to the hoax theory’s popularity in the post-Vietnam War era. She notes that this happened during the post-Watergate era, when American citizens were inclined to distrust official accounts. Dégh writes: “The mass media catapult these half-truths into a kind of twilight zone where people can make their guesses sound as truths. Mass media have a terrible impact on people who lack guidance.”[11] In A Man on the Moon,[12] first published in 1994, Andrew Chaikin mentions that at the time of Apollo 8‘s lunar-orbit mission in December 1968, similar conspiracy ideas were already in circulation”

“Gosh, you know thinking back on it, I can see how it could have been faked, I suppose, but I thought there was just too much…you know…evidence…

Director:  “Evidence?  Like what?  A good story told over and over, backed up by some bags of rocks and film with lighting issues that wouldn’t pass muster in today’s high-tech video world?  hardly!

No, Chambers, the US “moon landing” wasn’t exactly done the way presented and that’s why things must be bad – very, very bad, this coming spring.”

Chambers:  “I don’t follow…”

Director:  “The Chinese are going to the moon, you idiot!  They know they can do it and so do we.  And, as soon as they show up and find there are no footprints at the US landing site, they can blackmail the West into pretty much whatever they want… do you see it yet?”

Geek:  “But what about things left on the moon?”

Director:  “Nice try…but we sent up lots of junk and crashed it into the supposed landing site later.  We did that under the guise of “secret payloads” for intelligence agencies.  Well, that was US, Chambers.  US as in U.S.

Now you can seer the problem.  The “soft landing” of Chang-e 3 is not the issue.  It’s that when China goes to the moon, they will be able to overfly and take ultra-high resolution pictures.  And when the missing footprints and others technical issues aren’t resolved, the US government will be outed for having lied to the public for 45-years about this.”

Geek: “But the astronauts – they’re telling the truth, right?”

Director:  “Ever see any of them take a polygraph?  Of course not!  National heroes and all that.  And besides, all the details were piped into them under deep hypnosis helped along with some fairly recent-discovered “mind altering drugs” back when.  What that means is that the astronauts themselves deeply believe everything they report.  But as you know, we have amazing capabilities – far beyond what the general public can comprehend – in manufacturing artificial memories.”

Geek:  “So when the Chinese have men and equipment up there, and actually begin the colonization efforts, then the US will be made to be fools…yes, I see how that could happen.”

Director:  “Remember the Kennedy assassination?  It took how long for the documentary claiming it was an accident involving a US Secret Service agent’s rifle in the car behind Kennedy’s to appear?  Fifty years?  There are sometimes things better left unsaid, Chambers, in the interest of national security.”

Geek: “Understood, sir.  So we need to have a period of extreme destabilization so that people will think twice about disagreeing with government, especially openly and on the Internet, is that right?”

Director:  “Yes.  We need to ensure that our friends with search engines derate and just outright lose sites that get wind of this.  We also need to wait and see how diplomacy works out.  We’re talking back-channel with the Chinese to keep them from overflight and filming.  So we might muddle through this period.  They might even send out a team to install some footprints for us and then have an “accident” with a couple of astronauts, if you know what I mean…

But, if we don’t, there will be a kind of hell on Earth to keep people’s attention focused on other matters.  We will have crashing markets, budget impasse, Obamacare confusion, a spike in unemployment…and maybe we can get a couple of new war fronts open, too.  We may even have to play the “domestic terror” card, but we really need to hold that in reserve for use during the financial collapse, like we played it withy 9/11 to keep people from realizing in 2001 that the great stock market bubble in history had just blow up costing $5-trillion in middle class losses.”

Geek:  “So what do you want me to do about it, sir?”

Director:  “Keep a close eye on Chinese language and actions.  We think they have been playing their Sendaku airspace card loosely but when they announce that they are overflying the American lunar landing sites and release marginal pictures, then we’ll take that as a signal that they’re onto us.  And then we’ll have to move; quickly and firmly….

The real issue is whether our alien friends will give the Chinese permission to do more than a couple of landings, like the US negotiated before being told “Don’t come back…”  If the Chinese get more latitude then we will have lost a major strategic initiative.

So over the next couple of months, add the world UFO to your language search.  If my hunch is right, we should see an uptick in the number of UFO sightings when our alien friends realize that humans are coming back – and that our “advice” to the Chinese has been ignored….”

The mind reels with possibilities.  We could take the ending to this almost any direction we want:  It could be revealed as a joke, it might be real in an objective sense, or it could just be another one of the millions of misdirection’s found every day on the web; many posted by government agent provocateurs using multiple personality posting software.

I’d speculate along a certain line, but that wouldn’t be productive.  Besides, reality will reveal itself, and all in good time…

Oh, I did mention Directorate 153 is completely fictional, and not some secret roundtable of all the black budget security agencies who have really been running government since right after president Johnson’s days, didn’t I?

Dowsing Details

In case you missed Friday’s comments on Dowsing, we had a nice follow-up from a reader named Peter which has a few points of interest in it:

Hi George;
I remember working as a surveyor here in Canada in the 70’s and using coat hangers wires bent in an “L” shape to find existing underground utilities.
Radio detectors were just coming into service and were prohibitively expensive for the small organization I worked for.
There was no mystery or voodoo associated with it. It was just a practical technique passed onto me by one of the older employees.
Peter

Ah!  Someone else who can dowse.  I asked if there were any hints he could think of that I’d overlooked…

The only proviso I remember, was swinging them around a few time to “warm them up”.
The technique was to hold the wires forward and parallel, like holding a pair of pistols and when the utility was crossed, the wires would swing outwards away from each other and line up with the underground pipes.
It worked for electrical wires, metal, clay and concrete pipes. I don’t know if water had to be flowing at the time of detection though.
I never tried to find natural underground water with this method.
I downloaded a book you referred to a while back by Pam Grout E2.

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