And why would you want to do that?
Well, because I have the week all planned out for us, of course! (Aren’t you on the distro list?)
Here’s how it should play out:
The market this morning will fall flat on its nose.
Why lookie here! Dow futures down 109!
Reasons are all over the place, but a couple of them include the Japanese market not looking exactly “In the pink” and then there is the German equivalent of our Dow which used to live in the low 10-thousands, but when I checked earlier, it had busted through the key 10,000 level and was headed for who-knows where.
But looks like Japan may be the warm up act for Global Collapse because the country has a bigger pension problem than the USA and the place still has all that Fukushima stuff and China and the other Asia Tigers are outsourcing Japanese engineering like we let happen here. People being slow is a global phenom.
Now: While all this is going on, our Peoplenomics.com subscribers have this little spreadsheet I built called the “brainamp.xls” The idea of the brain amp is that you can look at a possible first wave in either direction – up or down – and make some interesting and intelligent inferences about how the rest of a wave structure could/should play out by just applying some Elliott wave theory.
Add to that our odd way of doing price channels and presto! Plug and play week. No use for talking heads.
At least that’s how the theory goes.
In fact, I believe so much in this stuff that I have some of my own real money behind it. Not to say that I will make a pile of dough, but at least we think the week could work out like this:
First off today: There is a fine case for the market to blow off all the gains of Friday. But the key thing here is that even with the Friday gains, we have broken support of a trend channel and that MAY mean the advance from the February low is done-for.
But hold on, because there is a chance that this is just the end of a larger Elliott 1. Still, I don’t think so. It’s looking more like the larger IV is not yet done, and the projected price channel…well, if you were serious, you’d be a subscriber, so the long discussion goes back under wraps.
But down today, likely a continuing decline Tuesday, a turn around rally (buy the rumor) ahead of the federal jobs report Friday, and then whatever the pivot around that will be. Lows for this price channel in a week, or two – maybe three – and then up we go again.
Caveat: With my eyes still 20-100, this is subject to slightly greater error than usual, but this is my sense of it.
So what else, then, really matters in the news?
To be sure there is no shortage of political commentary about the election in Indiana.
I don’t know about you, but I’m about sick of the political BS. Most of it is wrong, biased, or useless. Like we used to joke about the newspapers back in my radio news directoring days, there’s really no reason for the news, at all. Except to fill up the space between the ads. And no, that’s not entirely a joke. You go pencil out how much ad revenue it takes to field a news operation and then work out 12-18 minutes per hour of advertising on news channels…the numbers are impressive. So is the cost of an ENG chain and a news helicopter.
The Triple A Fuel gauge report showing the national average price of gas to be $2.221 today is likely a lot more useful information.
The REAL BIG STORY not on television in a big way is this:
There is an interesting tactical problem ahead for the PowersThatBe in coming weeks and it’s likely something the Fed and WH are talking about in background:
Suppose my outlook is nearly right: Market gets slammed and there’s a small rally into Friday. But then it comes out that the employment data shows a slight increase in the number of people not working. How’s that going to play?
The answer is “badly” because we are so dangerously close to a roll-over point for the entire economy. This is where we could wake up one morning and hear the down is down 2-thousand points (or more) and you’d be locked into whatever you have because of “fast market conditions.”
This would be a tremendous bummer for the entire economy. So what can be done about it?
The answer? Plenty. If you are a coniver and schemer, which is just what politicians and banksters are good at.
This is the kind of week when we can almost expect a big “Event” of some kind. Not that we want it; no, we don’t.
But a large part of UrbanSurvival is being able to “sense” the future a bit. You can almost smell when the news and people’s belief in things like the infinite duration of defined benefit pension plans and so forth is beginning to “sketch out” a bit.
So that brings us to a Google News search for “Pension Plan” that is worthy of being bookmarked.
Here is an example of Ure’s Bummer of a Future for you: A group of Kroger employees and retirees is suing claiming their pension fund has been mismanaged.
That is only the tip of the iceberg, but it brings us to stories like the Jacksonville, Florida city council agreeing to look at their mayor’s plan to fix their city pension with a bailout.
What we have spread before us, like a Denny’s Grand Slam breakfast is a horrible truth about modern capitalist economics that isn’t making headlines, although it should.
You see: The pension funds were mostly set up at a time when the expectation was that the prevailing inflation rate would be around 7 percent. Oh, sure, some really conservative managers might have argued for 5 percent, but even during the Great Depression, rates are not as low as they are today.
The fact is that when rates of return went down below 5 percent, the inevitability of pension woes began to multiply. And with the 10 year bonds under 2 percent, where do you go to find a decent return?
On the other side of this, we can’t blame the pension fund managers – they were using “economic guidance” based on government figures.
But here’s the fly in the ointment: because of the massive deficit spending of the nearly criminal congress (and last half-dozen presidents of both parties, the national debt got to be so damn big, that if the interest rates weren’t managed down to the vicinity of zero, there would be a little larger problem that just pensions failing: We would have gone the way of Greece. You simply can’t compound the national debt at even 5 percent and have an increase in GDP in the one or two percent range and have a happy ending.
Choice point: Do you blow up the National Budget or do you blow up the pension plans and kick the can down the road?
It’s as simple as that.
So how to fix it?
OMG, that is a mess.
In the very short term we could try another war. Maybe going back to Syria with more “advisors” or some distraction like that. That is why we need an “Event” so badly. Give the market something to blame other than internal dynamics of synthetic growth eroding to collapse. Can’t have people seeling the market as a sham, can we? I mean it’s not, of course, but it is…kind of. I mean compared to paid-for land with a house on it, a well, a garden, a gold coin…? The problem with this sustainable lifestyle is it doesn’t provide growth and without growth the holy grain of economics (profits that keep growing) rides off into the sunset.
But there is another alternative to the tears as the credits roll. It’s a more clever way of blame-shifting. And I’ll tell you how it could be done.
Simply renew the call to give people the “right” to manage their own pension plans by putting a chunk of their plans into common stocks.
See what happens?
We set up the blow-off top – which I’ve been predicting to light off almost any minute now. That would give people the opportunity to put even more money into an over-priced market.
And by promoting such a scheme, the ill-gotten gains of Wall St. go through the roof and when the whole shiteree implodes, government and the co-conspiring congressoids will sympathetically tell all us lil sheep: “You know, we said at the start of this exercise that you should use a conservative approach to investing and you sould only investing in solid companies…”
And that, my friend, is how the little people like us could be screwed by the PowersThatBe: They will run us with the pennies from our savings into a crooked market which will then head for the moon and then go “Columbia Disaster” part-way there.
It’ll be a graceful end to the problems we have. And then, just as in the last Great Depression, we will enter a time of near universal hunger and wages will be held down low by the huge glut of low-income workers that the unindicted co-conspirators are placing in event the smallest of communities, nationwide.
Is it treason?
But that’s how it could work out: Put your pension into the stock market and leave you holding the bag.
Quite a feat, if they could pull it off.
And the hell of it is that to remain in power, the corporate owned government has just about run out of other plays. The pension plans may just be too big to kick down the road.
As a holding action, we will continue selling off real estate to Chinese interests – which is another bad joke: After all, what the Chinese are using to buy that with is our own Treasuries.
Like I said, you can turn off the news today.
This big picture stuff isn’t going to make it on the National News.
You do remember who owns that franchise, right?