Remember yesterday’s column, where I explained why the market would drop? This morning I can write the reciprocal column without even having to put on the thinking cap.
I could say Hillary is leading in polls and that might be enough, since all big Money Men are dems (Buffett et al). But there is more.
1. The Retail Sales figures are out. Here’s the top of the press release on this data point.
The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for September, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $459.8 billion, an increase of 0.6 percent (±0.5%) from the previous month, and 2.7 percent (±0.9%) above September 2015. Total sales for the July 2016 through September 2016 period were up 2.4 percent (±0.5%) from the same period a year ago.
The July 2016 to August 2016 percent change was revised from down 0.3 percent (±0.5%)* to down 0.2 percent (±0.2%)*. Retail trade sales were up 0.6 (±0.5%) from August 2016, and up 2.2 percent (±0.7%) from last year. Nonstore retailers were up 10.6 percent (±1.6%) from September 2015, while Food services and drinking places were up 6.1 percent (±3.3%) from last year.
The BIG Headline SHOULD be that America is Saved by Auto Companies – again!.
Main thing is the world hasn’t collapsed in the numbers, at least not until after the election.
2.Ditto, same-oh, for the Producer Price Index/Final Demand press release just out. Again, feast your baby blues on this one:
The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.3 percent in September, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices were unchanged in August and declined 0.4 percent in July. On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index increased 0.7 percent for the 12 months ended in September, the largest 12-month rise since advancing 0.9 percent in December 2014. (See table A.)
In September, over three-quarters of the advance in final demand prices can be traced to a 0.7- percent increase in the final demand goods index. Prices for final demand services inched up 0.1 percent.
This also means the world hasn’t ended – yet.
3.The next “biggie” although it’s one of the “softs” I look at: Janet Yellen (herself) is out speechifying today. Around lunch time. That MIGHT move the market. Main thing is that despite all the hoopla you hear about how “free markets” work, the “free” market part – suck-ups mostly – don’t trash the markets until after the Fed Chief (or in this case Chieftess) are done speaking and have time to get back to their mahogany fox hole. THEN things get interesting.
4.I have also told you several quintillion times that the world is running out of stuff to invest in. This is because we are at a place called “Consumer Super saturation.” Even if you make something everyone else in the world is making at the same price, MARKET SHARE is everything in the world now. We live where it’s not the product, it’s the platform. With a few exceptions, like Yahoo, where the acquisition deal may blow up because of hack reports.
5.Mortgage rates have turned up. This is because brother-in-law Bates and his Mrs. Are safely moved in to their new home now. “Raise away!” We all have our housing prices and rates locked, so if you missed two years of hints around here, the bad is on you and the Fed will gingerly try talking things up after the election. This will cause the ONE LAST POP in real estate before we get to the Massive Bubble peak in 2017 after which life will be ridiculous. Partly because between regular taxes, the massive Education Tax (formerly sold as Student Loans) and the Obamacare Tax (sold as healthcare reform to the longest-hair sheep), no one will have two dimes to rub together after Christmas. This will freeze up credit card debt, retail sales will fall, the bottom-fishers of mortgages will be done, and thanks to the Fed raising rates (which they have to, don’t get me wrong) stocks will briefly go to the moon.
Let me put it in historical context for you…because even if you don’t subscribe to our Peoplenomics.com in-depth reports, you still ought to look into the face of the Grim Reaper now and then.
And that is why the market will go up today. Our Peoplenomics trading model is bouncing off the….wait. We’ll cover that tomorrow for the people in the front-row seats.
Futures are up 62 on the Dow, I still have my short position and I will re-evaluate just before the bar closes this afternoon.
Sad But True
Dandy read in Real Clear Politics on the topic “Trump: Corporate Media Clinton’s Most Powerful Weapon, “No Longer Involved in Journalism“.
Not that it matters, as the latest Wikileaks dump proves, the press has been crooked and coopted by the Clinton/Podesta clan.
I trust you saw where “Wikileaks Bombshell: John Podesta Owned 75,000 Shares in Putin-Connected Energy Company?”
Yes, after all the Trump-Trashing, we find out the kettle really was making up sh*t about the pot being black.
(OK: A bit anachronistic if you’re under 50. Back in the day pots were used for cooking on wood stoves and fires and actually got black. In your world, this is something of a buggy-whip reference But at this hour, I couldn’t think of an Astroglide, three bathroom, LBGT-friendly, viewpor-configured, Android phone reference that would make sense to us over 50-types.)
The BIG War in Background
Say, I know I’ve bothered you in the past about things like the Muslim re-conquest of Europe and I’m sure you have seen other examples of attacks on Christianity and such. But here’s a story I bet you didn’t see: “Satanic Temple plans to open state’s first club at Tacoma elementary school.”
Tacoma? Well, let me see: Ted Bundy grew up just up the hill from the Tacoma Narrows Bridge, didn’t he? Hmmm…
Not to put too much of a biblical slant on things, but since were are decimating the plains of Damascus (metaphorically) isn’t this when the shock troops of Azazel are supposed to be showing up? Just as more Dead Sea Scroll fragments surface? Oh my…
Meantime Back at Isaiah 17…
Which says in part “Behold, Damascus will cease from being a city, And it will be a ruinous heap.”
The rest of it makes interesting reading, too, even if you are not religiously inclined. When 2,000 year old prophesy begins to line up, it’s time to start paying attention to the news coming from that part of the world which will likely “light up” right after the election.
Which stories? Why isn’t everyone worried about NukeWar? Debates and Circuses, pal. But look at the news flow in background:
On the other end of the battlefield Britain And France Prepare Military Escalation In Syria.
Democrats are the War Party and you can look at Roosevelt goading the Japanese into WW II, the Kennedy/Johnson Vietnam War, or the three new one that Peace Prize fellow has started if you doubt me.
This SHOULD be one of the two top topics of the presidential debates (along with economic collapse when the mountain of debt we refer to as the Debtberg rolls over on us in 2017.
That’s why the ever so forgetful Hill can’t do anything but run as an amnesiac. Yeah, you knew this…
You may rest assured that when dems are so whipped up in self-righteousness over Trump word and sliding the wanderings of Dick Clinton under the carpet, there is something else – Bigger – going on.
But maybe not. Depends how you would score regional nuclear war…
“Every head is shaved
and every beard cut off.”
Sure sounds like nuclear decontamination procedures to me. You’re welcome to another viewpoint, of course. Not preaching. Just noting that for a 2,000 year old predictive line, this is looking a lot stronger right now. And THAT is a worry.