My friend Robin Landry (site) has been managing money for people for about 40-years now. When I blew out of my long position in the markets a 8-days ago, he advised me to be patient.
“Markets climb a ‘Wall of Worry’ most times…”
I knew it to be true and it wasn’t the first time I’d heard it. Still, I stewed and fretted a good bit when the market opened up strongly Monday and it didn’t take but an hour, or so, before I had jumped in long, again. But, as world events and our Global Index guide us, we may be back to cash as early as the extended hours session today.
(continues below ad)
Not that being in cash for the week I was “out” hurt. We snagged enough money to buy hundreds of hamburgers – a kind of alternative currency I keep track of. (Unlike BTCs, at least for their first 4-minutes of life, hamburgers do have some utility value…)
Robin happens to be one of the world’s experts in Elliott Wave theory. There are others – I think everyone knows Bob Prechter at Elliott Wave International. Some people have a real eye for it.
Point is: There is a strong case to be made – and it’s seen in several of the charts I keep on the www.peoplenomics.com side of things – that the market can zoom much, much higher. But our aggregation work offers another view. As of this morning, the US oscillator has crossed above the Global which in our view is notable. Possibly quite bullish, but we’ll see how the week works out.
An hour to the open futures were down 57, but after a run of 183 yesterday, some people may take profits and slink off for a while.
I tend to be more of a trader than investor. Although I’ve never asked, I expect Robin has long-term gains at tax time. I virtually never do and, if anything, my biggest paperwork headache is the Wash Sale rules. (A few years back I was labeled a “pattern day trader.”) You get to pick your own style, though trading is more work and in studies, about equal if you’re good at it, though disastrous if you’re bad.
I’ve said it before, but it bears repeating again: The markets have a little something for everyone: I like the Wild West Casino of day trading, or maybe being in something for a few weeks to a month. Others are much more strategic: Their idea of a good time is playing the longer-term (and larger) wave counts and ignoring the little bumps along the way.
For what it’s worth, you can make pretty good money, either way.
With many “modern” employers turning a ‘blind eye’ to employee’s casually surfing the web for things like checking social media accounts, I can’t imagine that people wouldn’t be spending 10-times as much effort trading a small grubstake in the markets.
Except for one thing: Average people are stupid.
It’s what keep’s ;em average.
In the Bigger Scheme of Life (BSL), people get up, go fight traffic, work too long, fight their way home, and then sit around and bitch to their partners about it. All the while, compulsively checking Tinder or FB or whatever for new “friends” and “likes.”
With technology on our phones to trade – and learn to become expert traders and investors – I am dumb-struck at people’s behavior.
Average people seem to wake up to the roar of the markets right around their tippy-top. That’s what happened in 1929.
With perhaps a year – and maybe longer – to a possible blow-off upside top, it’s not too late, as we see it, to dump “social” for “financial” if you must run up data charges.
Sadly, we already know what the “average” decision will be.
Data For Grown-ups
Three items hold our attention today.
One is the report out of South Korea’s Yonhap news agency that a couple of additional U.S. aircraft carriers are on the mosey toward waters off the Koreas. This comes as Kid Korea is threatening missiles and bluster at every turn including “nuclear war could come at any minute.”
We modestly suggest he check his homeowners policy.
Item #2 this morning is the Housing Start report from Census just out:
“Building Permits Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,260,000. This is 3.6 percent (±2.8 percent) above the revised February rate of 1,216,000 and is 17.0 percent (±1.2 percent) above the March 2016 rate of 1,077,000. Single-family authorizations in March were at a rate of 823,000; this is 1.1 percent (±1.9 percent)* below the revised February figure of 832,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 401,000 in March.
Housing Starts Privately-owned housing starts in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,215,000. This is 6.8 percent (±12.5 percent)* below the revised February estimate of 1,303,000, but is 9.2 percent (±9.1 percent) above the March 2016 rate of 1,113,000. Single-family housing starts in March were at a rate of 821,000; this is 6.2 percent (±10.0 percent)* below the revised February figure of 875,000. The March rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 385,000.
Housing Completions Privately-owned housing completions in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,205,000. This is 3.2 percent (±13.5 percent)* above the revised February estimate of 1,168,000 and is 13.4 percent (±16.2 percent)* above the March 2016 rate of 1,063,000. Single-family housing completions in March were at a rate of 819,000; this is 7.9 percent (±12.9 percent)* above the revised February rate of 759,000. The March rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 374,000.
Item #3 this morning is the Fed Industrial Capacity and Utilization Report which comes out shortly. If it’s good, look for the market to get over any hesitation at the opening.
Another BREXIT Vote?
We see prime minister May has called for snap elections in the UK June 8th.
It’s another clear example of how government (political hacks) will constantly try to rewrite the ‘will of people’ for corporate of personal gain.
What part of NO E.U. didn’t they get?
President Trump is about to sign an executive order on “buying American” and using American workers on government projects.
It will also make it harder for American companies to hire foreign workers.
NY Times on Spicer
While I don’t buy the (BS) excuse, I give Spicer credit for doing his job.
Which is like being a mouse surrounded by a hundred hungry cats at the daily briefings.
Peasants Vs. City-States
A pretty good article by Damon Linker in The Week goes to some of our Outback thinking: “It’s not elites vs. populists. It’s cities vs. the countryside.”
It’s worth thinking about.
To put it in aeronautical terms, everything outside of “bravo airspace” really is “fly-over” country.
We don’t mind feeding ya’ll in the Big Cities, but we do mind feeding AND paying for largess and waste. Next time you buy a car, try driving to a small rural area and finding a dealer who doesn’t stick you for the whole local-option sales tax” for example.
Or, why should rural people who want to see a sporting event be screwed for additional hotel and food taxes? We do enough out here. Pay for your own stadiums without using public bonding authority, fer cryin’ out loud.
No…don’t get me started.