Oh, Hallelujah! An actual economic press release for a change:
“ U.S. IMPORT AND EXPORT PRICE INDEXES – APRIL 2016
The price index for U.S. imports rose 0.3 percent in April following a 0.3-percent increase in March, the
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The increases in both April and March were led by higher
fuel prices. U.S. export prices increased 0.5 percent in April, after recording no change the previous month.
Both agricultural and nonagricultural export prices contributed to the April advance.
All Imports: The consecutive 0.3-percent increases in April and March were the first monthly advances
since the index ticked up 0.1 percent in June 2015 and the largest increases since a 1.1-percent rise in May
2015. Higher fuel prices drove the April advance although nonfuel prices also contributed to the overall
increase in import prices. Import prices declined 5.7 percent over the past year, the smallest over-the-year
drop since the index fell 5.6 percent in December 2014.
Nonagricultural Industrial Supplies and Materials: Prices for nonagricultural industrial supplies and
materials increased 1.4 percent in April following a 0.7-percent rise in March. Higher prices for fuel, metals,
and chemicals all factored into the April advance.
Finished Goods: Finished goods prices were mixed in April. Capital goods prices advanced 0.4 percent, the
largest monthly increase since the index rose 0.7 percent in January 2013. In contrast, consumer goods.
prices edged down 0.1 percent. The price index for automotive vehicles recorded no change in April. “
Which means what?
In isolation, not much.
But, as I was explaining to a colleague last night, GDP projections and how trade is rolling can be very useful things.
When I have spare time, which ain’t often or much, I’ve been working on a little spreadsheet project innocently enough named the Conflict Modeler.
The idea – and it uses some of the same concepts as my early 1980 Airline Financial Modeling System, is you get a massive workbook going.
Then you look at resources. Then you look at GDP (current and projected) and that will give you an indication as to the “live steam pressure
of the global political system.
You see, people don’t mention that economics is actually a pretty good life planning too.
If you live in a country where there is a high current and projected growth rate in GDP, then your country is likiely to need a lot of raw materials growth to go with that.
As raw materials growth zooms along, everything is peachy, until you run out of domestic raw materials.
Then you have to go shopping.
We already know that there are two huge trends going on in China for example.
One is they are talking about an L-shaped recovery. In other words, they are planning to decline and then hold level.
At the same time they are doing that, their president next month, will start to strip the civilian power from the Standing Committee of the Politburo, and more power will go to their military.
It all has an ugly ring of what happened in Germany in the early days of Hitler.
Except the Chinese are not Nazis…and with their 5,000 year history, they have a strong heritage of planning and execution. Something our State Department (infested as it is with a Nasty Nest of Neocons [NNN] that brought you Arab Spring and a global caliphate and ISIS) doesn’t have a clue.
As you begin to model out this kind of data, however, you can see that if China is looking at an L-shaped economic growth trend, then they too see something ugly out there in the 2017-2024 area – and that would be the West falling into a massive economic depression. Yes, the same one we mention here, all the time.
And so with China militarizing – which means in their Depression experience, it will be the rise of a very strong military, what does the combined wit and wisdom of the U.S. have planned?
I mean other than seeding every community in America with imported non-assimilating dissenters and systematically forcing low income housing into even exurban areas, so no one will be spared the blight of synesthetic drugs and high crime rates and such?
Well, with friends like Paul Ryan in government, all China needs to do is sit back and watch the Ryan wing of the former GOP implode the nation which is already bleeding out from idiotic “borderless” futures (thanks Kerry) and rotten new trade deals that need to be ripped up yesterday. And sure, the national insurance fleecing via Obamacare could use a little work, too.
So the five year planning horizon for us is slow decline after a bout of religious fervor in the form of electoral optimism. And when that candy goes, whether by the JFK route or by more Bolsheviks doesn’t matter: We will be imploding about the time China’s military becomes the unquestioned world leader.
Then, in about 2025, China simply drives west, stopping to take over Iran and the oil fields that our State Department squandered…and presto!
The US dollar will fall from reserve status. Only thos of us who had the sense to buy gold, silver, agricultural real estate and our own means of production (home gardens for the family and such) will survive in any kind of comfort.
Even that will be short-lived, however. The U.S. fedgov, will by then be so all-powerful, that any privately grown food will be “appropriated” by the PowersThatBe because gosh, that wouldn’t be fair to the near-sighted couch potato class would it?
Where German was motivated by lebensraum (living space) in the build to WW II, look for China to be “Oil to Live” or something like that.
Gee…about here aren’t you glad you dropped by?
After the Wednesday drop, a bounce of 90 at the open seems likely for the Dow.
We Still Support FBI Dir. Comey
The FBI boss is in a hard spot. There are reports of growing pressure on him to hurry along and finish up the Clinton email scandal investigation.
The reason we support Comey (helped by 130 agents working on this project, we hear) is that the scandal could very easily be much wider than the simple matter of email server indiscretion.
For example – and this is purely hypothetical, but let’s explore this for a minute:
Suppose that there was MUCH more than just email indiscretions?
Suppose, for example, that the server was not owned by Ms. Clinton, but perhaps it might have belongs to the former president, OR a certain foundation.
If so – and it is only speculation at this time– could there have been some kind of quid pro quo? Perhaps a contribution in return for information? Who knows? But the server’s owner(s) have not been particularly candid and certain emails have been less than readily handed over…
As we see it, if there is any other questionable behaviors – not only against a pending presidential contender, but conceivably involving a former president – Would YOU as the FBI Director take exceptional care and all the time you needed to “get it right the first time”? Why, of course!
To Repeat: I am not saying that this is how things worked, BUT we do have our ears to the ground and speculation that more than just emails being looked at grows as the clock runs…
For this reason alone, we cut FBI Director Comey a lot of slack to take whatever time he needs to complete a thorough, fair, and complete investigation.
IF he does that – and if there is something to it and Loretta Lynch doesn’t take appropriate action, then we would expect that Comey to resign and and expose the corruption of powers in Washington.
If both Clintons are cleared, then we trust the FBI to have been thorough, complete, fair, and no stigma would be attached to the Clintons.
Still, two nags remain for now:
“Who owned the server and what else was on it?”
Perhaps far more than just the doodlings of a former president…although their presence raises many more questions than have been answered so far.
The more “missing emails” the worse it smells. And Bigger.
A Woman President Sinks
Yes, this is a different story. Dilma Rousseff suspended as Senate votes for impeachment trial. So goes politics in Brazil.
Utterly Tasteless Dept.
Did you see where George Zimmerman to auction gun that killed Trayvon Martin?
This is a fine story of two kinds of crazy.
First: Who would auction off a gun that killed someone?
Second: Who would buy it?
Cold War II Notebook
How would you feel if Russia set up an anti-missile shield in, oh, Mexico, for example?
Check the map for distances, and then read how the US to activate Romanian missile defense site, angering Russia.
For that matter, how would a Russian site in Ontario feel to us? Kind dangerously pushy, would it not?