While We Wait for Friday CPI #s…

Oh, Hallelujah! An actual economic press release for a change:

“ U.S. IMPORT AND EXPORT PRICE INDEXES – APRIL 2016

The price index for U.S. imports rose 0.3 percent in April following a 0.3-percent increase in March, the

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The increases in both April and March were led by higher

fuel prices. U.S. export prices increased 0.5 percent in April, after recording no change the previous month.

Both agricultural and nonagricultural export prices contributed to the April advance.

Imports

All Imports: The consecutive 0.3-percent increases in April and March were the first monthly advances

since the index ticked up 0.1 percent in June 2015 and the largest increases since a 1.1-percent rise in May

2015. Higher fuel prices drove the April advance although nonfuel prices also contributed to the overall

increase in import prices. Import prices declined 5.7 percent over the past year, the smallest over-the-year

drop since the index fell 5.6 percent in December 2014.

Export Prices

Nonagricultural Industrial Supplies and Materials: Prices for nonagricultural industrial supplies and

materials increased 1.4 percent in April following a 0.7-percent rise in March. Higher prices for fuel, metals,

and chemicals all factored into the April advance.

Finished Goods: Finished goods prices were mixed in April. Capital goods prices advanced 0.4 percent, the

largest monthly increase since the index rose 0.7 percent in January 2013. In contrast, consumer goods.

prices edged down 0.1 percent. The price index for automotive vehicles recorded no change in April. “

Which means what?

In isolation, not much.

But, as I was explaining to a colleague last night, GDP projections and how trade is rolling can be very useful things.

When I have spare time, which ain’t often or much, I’ve been working on a little spreadsheet project innocently enough named the Conflict Modeler.

The idea – and it uses some of the same concepts as my early 1980 Airline Financial Modeling System, is you get a massive workbook going.

Then you look at resources. Then you look at GDP (current and projected) and that will give you an indication as to the “live steam pressure
of the global political system.

You see, people don’t mention that economics is actually a pretty good life planning too.

If you live in a country where there is a high current and projected growth rate in GDP, then your country is likiely to need a lot of raw materials growth to go with that.

As raw materials growth zooms along, everything is peachy, until you run out of domestic raw materials.

Then you have to go shopping.

We already know that there are two huge trends going on in China for example.

One is they are talking about an L-shaped recovery. In other words, they are planning to decline and then hold level.

At the same time they are doing that, their president next month, will start to strip the civilian power from the Standing Committee of the Politburo, and more power will go to their military.

It all has an ugly ring of what happened in Germany in the early days of Hitler.

Except the Chinese are not Nazis…and with their 5,000 year history, they have a strong heritage of planning and execution. Something our State Department (infested as it is with a Nasty Nest of Neocons [NNN] that brought you Arab Spring and a global caliphate and ISIS) doesn’t have a clue.

As you begin to model out this kind of data, however, you can see that if China is looking at an L-shaped economic growth trend, then they too see something ugly out there in the 2017-2024 area – and that would be the West falling into a massive economic depression. Yes, the same one we mention here, all the time.

And so with China militarizing – which means in their Depression experience, it will be the rise of a very strong military, what does the combined wit and wisdom of the U.S. have planned?

I mean other than seeding every community in America with imported non-assimilating dissenters and systematically forcing low income housing into even exurban areas, so no one will be spared the blight of synesthetic drugs and high crime rates and such?

Well, with friends like Paul Ryan in government, all China needs to do is sit back and watch the Ryan wing of the former GOP implode the nation which is already bleeding out from idiotic “borderless” futures (thanks Kerry) and rotten new trade deals that need to be ripped up yesterday. And sure, the national insurance fleecing via Obamacare could use a little work, too.

So the five year planning horizon for us is slow decline after a bout of religious fervor in the form of electoral optimism. And when that candy goes, whether by the JFK route or by more Bolsheviks doesn’t matter: We will be imploding about the time China’s military becomes the unquestioned world leader.

Then, in about 2025, China simply drives west, stopping to take over Iran and the oil fields that our State Department squandered…and presto!

The US dollar will fall from reserve status. Only thos of us who had the sense to buy gold, silver, agricultural real estate and our own means of production (home gardens for the family and such) will survive in any kind of comfort.

Even that will be short-lived, however. The U.S. fedgov, will by then be so all-powerful, that any privately grown food will be “appropriated” by the PowersThatBe because gosh, that wouldn’t be fair to the near-sighted couch potato class would it?

Where German was motivated by lebensraum (living space) in the build to WW II, look for China to be “Oil to Live” or something like that.

Gee…about here aren’t you glad you dropped by?

After the Wednesday drop, a bounce of 90 at the open seems likely for the Dow.

We Still Support FBI Dir. Comey

The FBI boss is in a hard spot. There are reports of growing pressure on him to hurry along and finish up the Clinton email scandal investigation.

The reason we support Comey (helped by 130 agents working on this project, we hear) is that the scandal could very easily be much wider than the simple matter of email server indiscretion.

For example – and this is purely hypothetical, but let’s explore this for a minute:

Suppose that there was MUCH more than just email indiscretions?

Suppose, for example, that the server was not owned by Ms. Clinton, but perhaps it might have belongs to the former president, OR a certain foundation.

If so – and it is only speculation at this time– could there have been some kind of quid pro quo? Perhaps a contribution in return for information? Who knows? But the server’s owner(s) have not been particularly candid and certain emails have been less than readily handed over…

As we see it, if there is any other questionable behaviors – not only against a pending presidential contender, but conceivably involving a former president – Would YOU as the FBI Director take exceptional care and all the time you needed to “get it right the first time”? Why, of course!

To Repeat: I am not saying that this is how things worked, BUT we do have our ears to the ground and speculation that more than just emails being looked at grows as the clock runs…

For this reason alone, we cut FBI Director Comey a lot of slack to take whatever time he needs to complete a thorough, fair, and complete investigation.

IF he does that – and if there is something to it and Loretta Lynch doesn’t take appropriate action, then we would expect that Comey to resign and and expose the corruption of powers in Washington.

If both Clintons are cleared, then we trust the FBI to have been thorough, complete, fair, and no stigma would be attached to the Clintons.

Still, two nags remain for now:

“Who owned the server and what else was on it?”

Perhaps far more than just the doodlings of a former president…although their presence raises many more questions than have been answered so far.

The more “missing emails” the worse it smells.  And Bigger.

A Woman President Sinks

Yes, this is a different story. Dilma Rousseff suspended as Senate votes for impeachment trial. So goes politics in Brazil.

Utterly Tasteless Dept.

Did you see where George Zimmerman to auction gun that killed Trayvon Martin?

This is a fine story of two kinds of crazy.

First: Who would auction off a gun that killed someone?

Second: Who would buy it?

Cold War II Notebook

How would you feel if Russia set up an anti-missile shield in, oh, Mexico, for example?

Check the map for distances, and then read how the US to activate Romanian missile defense site, angering Russia.

For that matter, how would a Russian site in Ontario feel to us? Kind dangerously pushy, would it not?

Comments

While We Wait for Friday CPI #s… — 20 Comments

  1. I’m beginning to strongly believe that George Zimmerman is on someone’s payroll as a provocateur. This auction thing stinks to high heaven as a ruse to incite even more racial strife as summer approaches, and the RNC convention occurs.

    Cleveland is a city with a poor black population in the rust belt, and it could easily reach flashpoint, along with the rest of the Rust Belt.

    It’s also a nexus of Muslim occupation.

  2. Who would buy the gun? Same ignorant clowns that paid his legal fees.

  3. Why am I the only person who notices that it is not necessary to complete an investigation before indicting?

    If someone robs a bank, is indicted because of the evidence, then it is discovered that they murdered someone, it is absolutely no problem to then indict that person for murder as well. Just because the planning of the bank heist and the murder were committed in the same house is not a problem.

    They only need evidence of mishandling of one classified document to bring charges. Who cares if there is one or 27 or 270 individual charges.

    And ownership of the server is a moot point. That server was “owned” by the 10 IP addresses that one hacker said he saw that accessed that server. Wanna bet that the Russians, Chinese and Israelis are in those IP addresses?

    And missing emails? The FBI just paid over $1 million for no information off the iPhone of a person that was not even the perpetrator of the San Bernardino shooting. If they offered $1 million in Bitcoin for a copy of the contents of that server with emails, they would have it before the end of the month. But not even that is necessary. The NSA already has all that data in their databases. Put Snowden in front of a NSA computer, and he would have it in a few hours.

    Anybody smell a coverup? As an American, ask yourself not only why someone who could be indicted for espionage, treason and murder is still running for president, but being voted for by millions?

    • its called power and influence..
      A rich mans son kills someone in a drunken car accident.. he gets by with a hefty fine and maybe a hundred hours of community service.. a poor mans child or himself will do twenty to life for the same thing..

    • Yes, you can indict on good faith preponderance of existing evidence.

      Yes, Comey does need to do it right, but not dawdle too long either.

      Yes, if Lynch does not prosecute actionable evidence treasonous acts will have been committed before our very eyes.

      It is scary how many people vote for her.

      And as to the gun, are you kidding me ? You are trying to ask a reasonable question about a population that has in large part ceased to act reasonable. I wondered about George Z being an agent in the past, but for that to be true I will have had to have met hundreds of very similar agents, no wonder they can’t balance the budget.

      The sheer volume of stupid, mean, and at times dangerous people running around every day is absolutely astounding. The icing to this disastrous cake is that most of them don’t even realize it, they’re just oblivious to most everything that I learned of social behavior as a child.

      No, it doesn’t surprise me that he’s going to sell it, nor that there will be a buyer. Interested to know how much he gets, that’ll prove, or hopefully disprove, my point.

    • Because half our population only cares about one thing … the “gravy train.” Come hell or high water, one thing is certain about Hillary, the gravy train is her bread and butter.

  4. We constantly have our state operated media censor the good news about Russia and Putin.
    Without the Russians help in keeping supply lines open and leasing us their giant helicopters, our gooses would have been cooked when the Pak government and Pak Taliban shut down the supply lines to Afghanistan .
    Also, have you ever heard the truth about the Russian Imperial Fleet , how their docking in Boston and NYC during the civil war kept the imperialistic French (who were already ransacking Mexico at the time) and the piggy Brits out of our civil war.
    They did not want to tangle with the Imperial Russian Army or Navy

  5. I was making supper yesterday and a helper of mine asked me a semi interesting question.One I had never even thought about.
    One member of our household loves to drink the vegetable water off of the canned vegetables. while my helper was reading the label they noticed something that caught their eye..
    DO YOU CHANGE THE WATER GRANDPA? why do you ask that might I ask.. well this is canned and imported from China.. and china has all that toxic water killing its people..
    we cannot import medications because the drug companies because of quality standards set in the USA.. “Why are there restrictions against importation?
    The safety of the drug supply is Congress’ primary concern in restricting
    importation.”
    and china has to import more water than we do oil because they have such severely toxic water in the country. so are they using imported water or the water from there to ship products that have been outsourced to their country..that is a very good question isn’t it..
    Here is another aspect.. Since our Congress is pretty much absent from DC and the ones really controlling everything is large money and special interest groups bent on the making of a fast profit off of the backs of the American workers..
    and during the last administration Congress was so bent on selling our docks to countries outside our borders.. what about imports..
    we know by their own admission that there isn’t enough manpower to inspect the incoming containers completely where maybe one in a thousand actually get inspected. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2012-08-13/u-s-backs-off-all-cargo-scanning-goal-with-inspections-at-4- .
    Now Rand Paul several years ago brought up a more serious consideration on that very issue..
    we mostly consider the flybys the touch n go’s the frequent testing of our border security..
    but now consider this..what about doing a simple slight of hand..
    you know watch the birdie as they walk right by.. this brings something more serious consider. another country bringing in a direct threat slip it by our inspectors and quietly set it in some storage facility quietly waiting to be used in some distant future?..
    could Rand Paul really have been on something there that was laughed and scoffed at and ignored by the people he associates with in
    DC.quietly sitting here Deep in thought for a change on Thursdays import and export quota’s

      • who needs long range with something like that.. especially when our own representatives only think about some fat cat making a fast buck..

  6. I wish I’d clicked on the headline regarding French Intelligence having evidence of an alleged Clinton/FBI bribe of some sort.
    While SOS, she is said to have fired people for doing exactly what she did. Rules for Thee but not for me.

  7. “I mean other than seeding every community in America with imported non-assimilating dissenters…”

    Since I have NO faith in TPTB’s “wisdom” it goes without saying that the allowed massive influx of these non-assimilating peoples couldn’t have been for any long term plan of boosting America and its philosophy of Capitalistic self-improvement. It simply doesn’t go beyond immediate political gain which begets a rise in politicians’ personal self-aggrandizement and income. There’s your business model George.

    My brother recently was in the Dallas area where he and his wife entered a restaurant, didn’t say which one, where they were met with the stares of a room completely full of “Asian” eyes. His wife was the only one that didn’t have a head covering on. They stayed for lunch anyway and, he said, the service was just as good as anywhere else. The only incident was when a table full of burka-wearing women sat immediately across from them and then gathered for a group photo during their meal. It was all he and his wife could do to contain their amusement when they wondered how they could tell if any of their group was, indeed, smiling!

    The serious down side to this is, obviously, was brought out in a video sent to me yesterday. Paul Weston spoke at a CPAC conference this past March 3rd and informed those present that “Sweden is lost” with no chance of recovery in the next 5 years or so and Britain has a slim chance of not being taken over by Muslims if they act now. The video is here:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a-hPCnel0qc
    Personally I don’t see a peaceful way out of this. We are living on the verge of “interesting times”.

    • The answer to the question which is never asked. It is not money. It is not growth. It is not kindness nor philanthropy. It is the elites passing laws that allow them to flood countries with anyone at anytime. The goal is to destroy culture, and mix up the races into mutts. And the countries affected cannot do one dam thing to stop it. Kiss them ALL goodbye.

  8. Raiding our gardens? Shades of Executive Order 13603! But they’ll probably take our labor first, as the act refers to us as “unpaid consultants.”
    Funny how throughout the last few years, everything the Nazi’s did has been codified into law in the US, so can now be repeated, legally.

    • unfortunately.. it already has been codified into law..which is why rand paul didn’t stand a chance.. he believes in the constitution and what is says..

  9. George,

    Today’s column reminded me of a thought I had in my mind when I woke up this morning. We’ve got all these unnecessary wars on this and that…terrorism, drugs, etc. I think at this point the only war we really need is a War on Corruption. It could be our national project like beating the Russians to the moon was. We could be the first nation in the history of humanity to be corruption free! Or maybe I should just go back to bed and sleep it off.

    MAJ-13