What the Fed Doesn’t Understand

As a subscriber, you already have my mailing address…so please pass it on to the Nobel Prize people.

I’m sure you will want to do this – after you read this morning’s dirt-simple explanation of the “new Reality” that the Fed just don’t seem to be able to get its arms around.

That, plus a discussion of the manic markets and the charts – the ones we don’t give out on the free site – plus coffee.  What better kind of Saturday could there be?

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Comments

What the Fed Doesn’t Understand — 9 Comments

  1. Who do I trust?

    The guy who doesn’t need my business; who is interested in who I am and my family’s success; and who is not shy about telling me the truth, backed by numbers, regardless of whether or not I want to hear it.

    Good post today George.

    Thanks.

  2. George, I would amend your second axiom to
    “count on congress to do most everything wrong”. If you look at their record for the past quarter century, I think you will find my version more accurate!

    • Congress has done everything right for their handlers and donors. That’s how you can tell that they are owned, when they vote against what’s good for the country, you know. Look back at all the elections in the last 50 years (heck go back to 1913), the wars, the laws passed that have ruined the country, it is easy to see who they work for, it isn’t us.

  3. Parse the article, aka “press release for western audience”.

    “thermochemical reaction”
    “chemicals react and emit heat and gas”
    “main ingredient is ammonium nitrate”

    So is it necessary to connect these dots, or are Ure’s readers savvy enough to get this?

    I doubt the control is there for what we are doing now hydraulically, but am willing to entertain the concept. We actually have a lot of experience blowing things up downhole.

    The big problem as I see it is yield control. And what are they using to supply the necessary O2 for this to work?

    There may be issues with the actual oil. It is most similar to kerosene, which is why we import a lot of heavy oil to blend with it at the refinery. How hot does it make things and for how long?

    I’m not going to say it will not work – but can you imagine trying to make it work here?? I have to sign multiple forms and get .gov approval with background check to even buy ammonium nitrate here for the farm. When you do, you are automatically “on the list” – no if, and or but.

    Guys working frac jobs are basically not the top tier types – many fresh out of the clink, previous offenders, drunks, meth heads, personal issues, unreliable, etc. Trying to fill out a frac crew is a nightmare if you actually do real drug testing. Not everyone is like that, but there are more than enough to make crewing problematic.

    Crewing rigs isn’t as bad, but face the same issues. I had a rig shut down after a drug test because 4 of the 7-man crew got put on the boat and sent in. Had to wait 13 hours until a new crew arrived.

    Mixing ammonium nitrate with anything by inattentive or distracted people would be problematic. Pumping acidic water with lubricants not so much.

  4. Dear Mr. Ure,

    I’d look forward to OM2’s thoughts as well on the “new” Russian fracking method. What struck me as interesting is that when I followed through your link to reach a “corporate collaborators” webpage of The University of Tyumen, the list includes two competing American fracking giants.

  5. George
    I just have one question bugging me about which way this market goes. I personally think this is going to be “smeared out” time wise as you discussed in the past, and think we are looking at a big downer early next year, and so see some danger in buying options for this fall or winter in ’18.
    But I also have a fear that I make all this planning for a collapse, and then the creatures in DC actually get their act together and pass a significant tax cut, and the market turns and blasts off.
    Have you considered this in your plans, and what kind of strategy are you looking at, again of course, for your own personal funds, and not recommending anyone else do it.
    I am thinking it may come a collapse anyway, but we are looking at the PTB system pushing it out to the election season so it will be a nice Oct 18 surprise for the Congress.
    What think you?

    • Two Axioms
      Marty Zweig’s “Don’t Fight the Fed”
      And Ure’s “Don’t count on Congress to do anything right.”