Welcome to the Santa Rally

imageModest pop at the open:  The futures were up about 100 points in the US markets earlier.  But things elsewhere around the world were a bit less chipper with persistent discussion of deflation.

Take for example, this UK CityWire report: “Gimme shelter: where multi-managers are running for cover…’  A sample quote – to give you the flavor of things:

‘The market thinks that we are in a healing process and interest rates are in a healing process. Deflation is apparent, downgrades in company profitability are increasing and the financial crisis is far from over.’

The U.S. situation is admittedly better, but that might be because of the Fed’s most recent sleight of hand on rates.

One of our sources in the bond trading world called over the weekend to chat about how even though it looks (on the front steps of the Fed building) like there was an interest rate increase, there was an actual easing out the back door.

Sort of like telling someone who owes you money “I’m going to charge you more interest, but I’m going to slip the additional vig under the table…

Our bond source is convinced:

“What the Fed REALLY did was ease…but no one is calling them out on it…”

Something about “biting the hand that…”  Oh, well, Honesty is a liability and and Truth is leveraged, anymore.

Beyond Debate

An A.P. FactCheck notes that the democratic “debate” glossed over a lot of realities.  And then there was the bathroom SNAFU.

As our www.peoplenomics.com readers know, there is a good chance that the present-day markets are merely replaying events from an earlier time.

In fact, if you’d like to be precise about it, this week (Thursday) will match up with about June 14th of 1928.  Yes, you read that right:  JUNE 1928.  Last Friday was about like the week ending June 7, 1928.

It goes without saying that the joy of holding a view like this is that it makes the future ahead very, very predictable.  15-months of rally ahead.  Likely blow-off top.

We therefore expect, for example, that instead of a Fall-Winter crash, we can expect a Spring-Summer crash, perhaps in the May-June period.

We also have other expectations about the year: 2017.

The timeline begets some expectations about who will be president then:  It should be a personality suitable to reprise the role of Herbert Hoover.

Not that we have any mining engineers running for office, but among the personalities, we could see something like a Dr. Ben Carson, or perhaps a Ted Cruz in the position after a terrible misfortune befalls the President in spring 2017.  Or, if the other party wins, it could be someone like Bernie Sanders as #2, and again, thrust into the limelight because of presidential misfortune.  Or Joe Biden.

This is not to predict a specific misfortune in the spring of 2017; only to consider the prevailing psychographics of the personality we expect to be chosen by history to fill a role.  Neither of the two front-runners (Trump or Clinton) has of a personality type that would be easily confused with Hoover.

Although it does lend itself to a lot of interesting speculation.

The highlight of the personality is an engineering-type mind.  A failure to really reach-out and grab people’s imaginations in a powerfully charismatic way…  An ideal fit (other than another mining engineer) would be someone who is really, really smart, and makes it to the #2 slot on the basis of brains, not oratory.    Or – because history occasionally  “inverts” maybe it will be a good orator with little substance or a personality that Wall Street would hate.

Which, I suppose might be filled with a Bernie Sanders quote from the staged Hillarycratic “debate” Saturday night:

“I don’t think I’m going to get a whole lot of campaign contributions from Wall Street . . . In my view, the greed of the billionaire class is destroying this economy, and it’s destroying the lives of millions of Americans.”

Ever wonder what would happen if Sanders came in as VP afvter a presidential incapacitation?  It is that kind of ebb and flow to history that makes projecting the economic future of the country so interesting.   All along the lines of seeking the historical personality rhyme.

Another “non-charismatic” figure might be Jeb Bush.

For now, there isn’t much to do except watch the future of three or four very interesting possibilities between now and convention time.

Donald Trump is still leading the rag-tag field of R’s.  Hillary Clinton continues to lead the field of D’s.  And FBI Director William Comey continues to hold the “river card” because we still have no indication of how this Clinton email server scandal is going to go. If Comey were to resign to take a new position, I would be the least surprised guy in the room.

I honestly expect a presidential “outsourcing” to keep Comey from following the email scandal to its conclusion.  What better way than a “move up?”  Or, so it would be sold.

For now, we can relax and let down a bit for the holidays.  Except to note that on the 1928 timeline, we still have a number of “news memes” that may be out there in the wings:

While a more detailed list of 1928 events may be found here, there are some “concepts” to be fulfilled that seem ripe:

Dodge and Chrysler merged in May of 1928…so a merger or acquisition in the auto sector might not be a 100% surprise.

The first aircraft crossing of the Pacific took place in 1928 about now (on the rhyme-line) , so we would expect there to be news of success shortly in the Billionaire’s Space Race.

And oh, boy!  Next month it will be about 88-years since the invention of (factory) sliced bread. Whether we have any obvious breakthroughs like that to come, remains to be seen.  But a new computer product may capture the public mind…

You know, it’s already rising with stories like “Actual greatest thing since sliced bread finally discovered, and it’s from Japan…” appearing on Boing Boing.  Sliced chocolate.  thing is:  It begins to fill the cycle.

All of which circles (eventually) back to the market this week.  A Santa Rally for a day or three.  A year-end decline possible next week and the first week of January.

In the intermediate-term, a rally to begin 2016 (left field events aside) and a market peak in late 2016 to early/mid 2017.  New highs in 2016.

Some kind of “national misfortune” in Q1-2 of ‘17 and the bottom of a Greater Depression by late 2020.

Put a bow on it…

The Week Ahead

This morning would be a good one to turn over, kill the alarm, and go back to sleep.

Tomorrow there is GDP with Producer Prices Wednesday.  Thursday is a half-day:  Stocks will close at 1 PM and Bonds at 2 PM.  Friday, everything is shuttered.

Around here:  Peoplenomics will be presented Christmas morning and as soon as that’s done, I’ll be popping a turkey in the oven….the other one.

Speaking of turkeys…

Miss Universe

Crowned the wrong winner – briefly.

This is just a wild-ass guess here, but just guessing host Steve Harvey won’t be asked back to host.

Historical rhyme:  Miss USA won in 1928.

Meanwhile, Back at the War

A tremendous mess in Turkey where fighting has been intensifying in the southeast of the country  In Germany, some politicians are calling out Turkey for trying to kill off the Kurds

Movie Money

Half a billion for Star Wars in the opening weekend.

Historical rhyme:  The opening of “Plane Crazy”: starring Mickey Mouse – May of 1928.

Damn curious how this “off the ground movie” stuff comes around on a grand cycle, along with some economic harmony,. isn’t it?

Looking Ahead

Here’s where spotting the larger rhyme of history gets interesting:  In coming weeks, don’t be surprised by news of an assassination attempt on a foreign leader.  Troubles befalling the president of foreign country have been popping up in some of our www.nostracodeus.com data runs.

In two weeks we will hit the harmonic of  Zhang Jinghui’s close brush with an assassination in 1928 China, so we will keep our eyes open on this one.  Doesn’t have to be China,, either.  Could be something like a big ISIS figure gets taken out and a lieutenant of some note survived.  That kind of thing.

Now…go out there and spend, spend, spend.  It will help save the economy…

         

Comments

Welcome to the Santa Rally — 10 Comments

  1. I am calling for a ‘uuuge rally in fits and starts into 2029.

    That would give us a 55 year BULL MARKET that started in 1974.

    So there would be the end of your WAVE FIVE. It would ALSO be around 1.618 times the 33 year WAVE ONE (1896 official start of the DJIA to 1929), and the 34 year WAVE THREE (1932 to 1966).

    Currently, looking for another leg down to about 14,000 to 15,000 to end Intermediate 4 down of Primary 3 up. Same as late 1925 to early 1926. The ’25 top was in early November (kind of like this current lower high we had), with a low in March 1926. Primary 4 came in 1928. ANOTHER Primary 4 was 1987. I am ALSO looking at 2017. BUT, for a PRIMARY 3 high, with a Primary 4 sell-off like the Crash of ’87. Asset prices are 10 times what they were back then, and 100 times what they were in the Roaring Twenties. So, DJIA 64 in 1921 magically becomes DJIA 6,400 in March 2009. TEN TIMES the ’87 would put a Primary 3 high at 27,000. Then you take 10 times the low for DJIA 17,000 being a nice low leading to a FINAL Primary 5 up.

    Cycle 5 started in March 2009. Cycle 3 of this move started in 1980. Obama is the new Carter. I think TRUMP is the new Ronald Reagan.

    da bear

  2. Oh but…I think we need to go to around 14000 before we start another set. A 382 retracement perhaps from the ’09 lows??? Maybe around March or so???

  3. Hey ‘Mon,’

    As much as I would like to believe that the 2015 Dow chart is looking like the 1928 chart; Dude, they ain’t even close. (notice I capitalized “Dude out’a respect). We were at a 12 month low 5 months ago and 6.5% from it’s high, whereas, the corresponding time in ’28 was 3% from it’s high and not even close to a 12 month low. Even pulling up a monthly to see if there was any wiggle room, well Dude, I just don’t see it. I’m using the Think or Swim chart for the current period and the Prophet charts for the 1928 chart. Perhaps Prophet’s data is wrong?

    I’ll give you a blow-off top next year though. Still looks like we have a another wave to go before the big plunge.

  4. The Hot presidential race between tweedle Dee and tweedle Dum Don’t mean much as they are all the same, money grabbers and favor sellers. Basically we are being screwed no matter what the crooked election fixers decide to do.

  5. I can’t find your book on hydroponics. It used to be list in the right margin. Where do I go to buy it now?