Welcome back to Worriers Gulch. It’s a patch of land situated between the Pacific and Atlantic oceans, inhabited by a few reasonable people and millions of savages and imbeciles.
This is the gap widens between Thanksgiving and Christmas. Still, it remains interesting to see unfold.
My personal expectation is that the market will pull back, sharply and briefly, before Christmas *(or New Years) and then we will get the manic buying of stocks toward our dueling market peak windows in 2017.
The two main drivers are, of course, the potential for the election to be changed at the Electoral College on December 19th. As I explained to Peoplenomics subscribers this weekend, one of Texas’ Electors, Ken Clark who’s a Galveston County Commissioner in District 4 (*South side of Houston) said when he was an Elector in 2004 (Gore/Bush) the email surge didn’t begin until December – asking him to abstain or change his vote.
This time, the pressure is several orders of magnitude higher with more than 500 emails coming in before Thanksgiving.
So that will give you an idea of how much the Green Party and the Clinton supporters detest America.
What do I mean detest? Well, it’s obvious, isn’t it? Based on the results reported in the Washington Post, Jill Stein received only 31,006 votes. Trump had 1.4 MILLION and Clinton had 1.381 MILLION.
Stein doesn’t have a chance…so we assume some other motive…
What’s going on? Well, seems to me Jill Stein has probably cut a deal with Clinton who is now acting like a cry-baby and will participate with other Stein – no chance of winning – recounts in other states as well.
Does the world disingenuous mean anything to you? As the DailyBeast reported ahead of the election “The holier-than-thou Green Party candidate rails against Big Carbon, big banks, Big Pharma—while she holds substantial investments in them…”
HRC, on the other hand, has been lurking like a viper ready to strike the first time Trump said something really stupid, as he’s prone to doing.
This weekend, the left-leaning press called him out for saying Hillary would have lost by even more if “millions of illegal votes” had not gone to Hillary.
Should be obvious why it looks like a Stein/Clinton “deal” has been struck. Stein has no chance of winning, and Clinton is banking on bullshit and bluster to intimidate a few Electors into either abstaining or changing their vote.
In fact, there is no such thing as an Abstain at the College. Abstain essentially means a vote for Clinton.
Meantime, our favorite socialist, Bernie Sanders is again demonstrating why the democrats should have given the nod to him, by acting with class and finesse on this recount thing. Were it not for the crooked machinations of the hijacked democratic party apparatchik, he would have had a very good chance of winning. Nice, and/or honest, folks finish last, however.
So the market has this to worry about.
Meantime, we are two weeks out from the next Fed meeting and in that, a rate hike of a quarter is considered nearly a “sure thing.” So the market has a hell of a problem that only (so far) our Peoplenomics piece is talking about.
That is simply this: When interest rates turn, and with companies going virutal and retailing reduced to clicks, what about shopping malls, long a favorite of insurance companies, pension funds, and so forth as being stable, long-term investments?
Think crisis in commercial real estate. Think through the present-era mechanics.
Normally, when inflation lights off again after a recession, mall owners have a bit of pricing power when comes time to renegotiate leases. But now? Not so much — because Amazon and Wal-Mart are doing Battle Royale online.
And that gets us to “Cyber Monday” (which this morning is).
Problem is that with so many “Early Bird” deals, most of the big pop in online expected today may be toast.
By the way, if you are looking for great deals on Amazon, don’t forget to double-check that the priced low to high price sort is enabled. They sometimes flip it back to “Relevance” if you change a search term and that tends to hide the super-deals.
So there’s that…all in all, shopping-crazed Americans will have to be treated for “credit card burn” by the time the week is over.
Scroll to bottom. Look at distro of curves.
See where foodstuffs are? Except coffee which bewilders me.
Looks to me a lot like food price-driven inflation in the wings.
Tomorrow is the Big Data Day
GDP comes out tomorrow, along with corporate profits and such. Then we get the Case-Shiller S&P Housing report, too. So could see some volatility as the week moves along.
Friday sees the Employment situation, too…to lots of data could move the market around.
And out of the gate this morning U.S. Stock Futures Pull Back After Record-Setting Week.
Dow was down 50’ish, which ain’t much – yet.
Say: If the market rallied on Trump, would a Hillary Challenge tank things?
What Really Matters
I won’t spoil it for you, but the headline “California weighs ban on sex between lawyers, clients” got us to wondering.
Do they mean like on billing, or something else?
While Our Infrastructure Rots
China approves $36 billion rail project. But what do they know with a 5-thousand year old culture?
Is neatly explained in this one: Kaepernick angers Miami fans.
Yessir, I’m so old I remember when football was a team sport. Nowadays? Not so much.