Top of the Roller Coaster?

We open this week, as expected, with the markets set to open about flat. That much was fairly predictable.

What is NOT predictable is what will happen next. Well, except for the Gallup Consumer numbers this morning and the Fed-Speaks going on this week. Still, it’s all really just foreplay compared to the September 20-21 FOMC meeting coming up. And the IMF meeting with the World Bank Group starting October 7th.

Between here and there, we have options expiration – end of next week – and that should be interesting because at the end of options week last month (Aug) the S&P 500 closed around the 2,184 level and even if the S&P were to add four points today, we would still have a zero-gain month at this point. Toss in some really spikey highs in our indicators on the Peoplenomics.com side of the house and historical data that shows September is usually weak, and a case for some concern builds.

Still there are many ways to look at data. One school of though would anticipate the S&P declining to “send a message to the Fed.” Not that they will pay attention, though, since this is an election year – and I don’t care what kind of analytical “insights” are claimed, the Fed moving up rates prior to the finalization of the Clinton purchase of the office – just doesn’t seem to me to be in the cards.

That will set up a last-gasp (when the expected anointing takes place with the supervision/help of DHS election “help”) rally which could take us into the first part of next year.

Even a Trump win would not change the track appreciably. Reason? Well, Trump is a numbers guy and he knows full-well that economic change takes time and the time to make changes is in the first six months of a presidency. After that, it’s all down hill until the re-election cycle starts up. Trump knows there’s no free lunch, too.

And that gets us to the longer view of things.

I am personally short the market, yet our indicators reported on Peoplenomics are saying long is OK in here. Hell of a think to build a decision-tool and then ignore it. But the data in the model is based on actual data projecting trend channels and such off that. Sure, a spoonful of Elliott wave theory, too. But the eyes see things the numbers miss.

For example, did you see the report this morning? CBS has an interesting piece on how food prices have come down. Nice and all, yeah. But it won’t be around forever – so says a BBC report over here that goes into details of what what goes down tends to come back up again.

As luck (or financial engineering) would have it, the drop in food prices means that those of us on Social Security can expect approximately zero in the way of increases with this year’s adjustment. With increases in medication expenses such as the supplementation insurance not covered by Medicare – likely to go up 30-50% this coming year – and why is is property taxes keep going up even when frozen for oldsters? – we think the best most grays (like us) will be able to look forward to is a slow-motion flush.

Next Year’s Bump

Speaking of health care costs, here are a couple of headlines that will make you wonder if they’re talking about the same thing:

Out of the Washington (*Amazon) Post: “What Obamacare’s Successes Should Tell Us About Its Failures.”

Which reads as quite a contrast to “Obamacare insurance on verge of collapse.”

Listening to the stories over coming months will be interesting and in Google Trends, we expect to see a huge jump in Obamacare searches, but not until after the election.

Funny how that’s likely to work out, ain’t?

War on the Philippines?

The president of the Philippines referred to president Obama as a ‘son of a whore’ which got Rodrigo Duterte out of meeting with our Golfer in Chief.

What’s clear to those in a stand-off position is that the Philippines is another “next target” for militant jihadists and (as is often the case) the money for that comes from drugs and such.

The Philippines has a domestic drug war going – and the US (which we note has failed miserably and can’t even secure our own border with South American drug supplies) is trying to shove advice at the former US colony. They’re not buying.

There are bigger fish to fry, though than drugs and jihadists – and that includes the new Chinese-built “islands” springing up in the South China Sea.

Oh…one more thing: The nest of neocons at State that brought us (and is still working protests in Ukraine as Ukrainians besiege ‘pro-Russian’ Inter TV building) is shifting focus to SE Asia. Which means we can look forward to more policy disasters in that part of the world in future years if past performances in places like Egypt, Libya, Syria, Turkey, and the balance of the Sand Box are any indication.

About Ukraine

One of the better versions of that Ukraine story, which you should consider is “‘Arson’ At TV Station Underscores Threat To Free Speech In Ukraine.”

It’s wryronic that on the one hand Radio Free Europe and Radio Liberty seem to be able to see through the smoke and mirrors to stifle free speech while the Globalist stooges keep trying to put a media lid on discussion so they can strong-arm the civilian population. They operate the financial slaughterhouse for the bankster class, as everyone knows. Which is why the globalist/neocons are batting (at last check) something like zero for 10, or so. Hat tip to RFE and RL for calling it fair and square.

Hillary Chokes

Awe, but no health issues, allergies of course, so just do what you’re paid to do and move along.

Passings: Phyllis Schlafly

Gone at 92.

And while the liberalista can dish it out, they don’t seem to be able to take it well as their celebration of Schlafly’s passing is labeled “Disgraceful: Twitter Users Mock Phyllis Schlafly, Celebrate Her Death.”

Seems someone missed the do unto others lesson.

Media Cover-up?

So, how much press does Black Lives Matter get in the US for shutting down London City airport in the UK?

We have to note that had any other group acted this way it would have been labeled terrorism, so why not for them?

The story seems (as of press time) has been effectively firewalled from the US public by the liberal media control vectors.

Preaching Hate

Did you see where “Hate preacher Anjem Choudary jailed for five years and six months for drumming up support for IS?”

If you take a wide definition of terrorism as deliberately disrupting the lives and activities of civilians who aren’t partisans, where does that terrorism line start? Violence and intimidation of any sort, seems to me.

Good Times?

I don’t know who Gallup is talking to, but thjey report this today:

WASHINGTON, D.C. — Americans’ ratings of their standard of living have increased since President Barack Obama took office in 2009, with the Gallup Standard of Living Index rising steadily for the past 7 ½ years.

That kind of story – plus a butt load of cash – is why Hillary will win. And it’s why the Dow futures are up 14-points ahead of the open.

Nice tdo be back, ain’t it?

Comments

Top of the Roller Coaster? — 21 Comments

  1. BLM has been called “terrorists” by people. Milwaukee County Sheriff as an example of someone who’s not just ‘someone on the internet’. But Clark doesn’t get to use FedGov law as a prosecutor so he’s about as important as ‘someone on the internet’.

  2. As far as Gallup goes I often wonder who it is that these pollsters ever get hold of in their call-outs. Our phone has Caller ID on the main line and the other we just wait until the caller leaves a message. OVER 95% of our calls on the land line are ads, surveys, hoaxes, political promotions and other junk we won’t jump and run to see where the wireless remote is. If they think their call is important enough they’ll leave a message – most don’t. So far very few cell phone calls are junk but the number climbs all the time. My guess is most other people find ways to screen their calls, too, so who do these pollsters ever talk to?

    • Good point, and the same for us. The only type of ‘survey’ call that has called me in the last year was one for feminism, wanted my opinion on that, and the other one was for a survey on how many children we had in the home and what services they use. The feminist’s survey was basically wanting to know what I thought of the feminist’s movement and if I supported it, I said no, you all hate men, any movement that hates half of the human race has a problem. Course, she didn’t like that answer. The other one, we did not have under 18 children at home so they didn’t want to talk to me further.

  3. “I don’t know who Gallup is talking to, but thjey report this today:

    WASHINGTON, D.C. — Americans’ ratings of their standard of living have increased since President Barack Obama took office in 2009, with the Gallup Standard of Living Index rising steadily for the past 7 ½ years.

    That kind of story – plus a butt load of cash – is why Hillary will win. And it’s why the Dow futures are up 14-points ahead of the open.”

    I don’t know about that.. mine hasn’t..IN MY OPINION they obviously haven’t checked with the people in the working class.they didn’t ask me… or anyone I know… otherwise why are people pushing for an increase in minimum wages.. and get our jobs back from some other countries..
    the water will start drying up after they truly start charging a percentage on the prime.. then it will spin.. a death spin that there won’t be pulling out of.. next year after the new admin is in office.. I think our true hope lies with Donnald..vain greedy, self centered not politically correct.. yup more than likely but.. it is in his best interest to see the american dollar strong.. to stop outsourcing our jobs..

      • No. The 11 Trillion that has been spent on OUR behalf since he took office did NOT help ONE citizen in our country keep their house, get a better job, or get out of debt. So, NO. But for illegals, it helped them continue to get free healthcare, access to good jobs, good schools, continued free education (through college), SNAP, medicare, SSI (via corrupt programs that couldn’t find fraud if you slapped them in the face with the stolen SSN), free housing, etc. Our own government passed a law continuing to give unmerited tax refunds to the tune of $5 billion a YEAR, to the illegals while at the same time, NOT passing a law to help our veterans. So, NO, the citizens are NOT better off under Obama, but the illegals, the globalist corporations, the Elite, and all of the lobbyists (that he failed to eliminate), cronies, etc., are all in full swing and ARE doing a whole lot better. No, I do not consider our representatives of American citizenship the same American citizens that did NOT get any help from Obama’s legacy this last 8 years. Those criminals are doing just fine and they are traitors, they are citizens in name only.

  4. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=epHzsLFch9k

    This is Highly possible I actually thought Jr. was going to do that..and it is definitely in his legal rights to do it if the country is in a state of emergency.. and congress by voting in a bill way back during the Reagan years without of course even reading or writing it can be removed from office. But then how bad could that be.. Our congress has been on vacation for decades… the vacationers in office..

  5. I was looking at the article about the Muslim preacher who had been sentenced to prison in the UK for ‘hate speech’ . . . at the same time the Telegraph newspaper was highlighting an article about a Playboy ‘playmate’ who had sent a nude picture of a woman with ‘nasty’ comments, and was possibly going to be fined, sued, and up for jail time for her actions on the internet.

    Seems to me that it could be argued that there are two discussions going on here – first, must be some kind of agreement that certain actions are not tolerated – and secondly, that authorities be willing to enforce laws regarding those actions . . .

    Without agreement nothing will happen . . .

  6. Your buddy “Cliff” predicts that Hillary will be out by the end of September. We can only hope.

    • Cliffs smart.. George is smart.. but.. who does the one percent want they write our laws influence and push to get them in place they manage everyone…who ever is willing to tow the line with them well that is who will be in office in my opinion..And the Donald can’t be bought he comes right out and says that even though he is a member of the exclusive club won’t be controlled by them.. and he said one really bad thing.. he made a comments… dealing with the federal Reserve.. oops not a good thing.. just look up what happened to anyone that ever tried messing with them..If he does make it into office. I have a serious doubt as to how long they will allow him to retain that office..

      http://www.kamron.com/economics/people_who_opposed_the_frb.htm

  7. “That kind of story – plus a butt load of cash – is why Hillary will win.”

    She’ll win to prove that whites have a death wish–already proven every day of the year!!

  8. I’m cornfused by your use(support) of Google in searches/trends when it’s been clearly demonstrated that they are clearly manipulating results. I dumped Google 5 years ago in favor of Bing (and other search tools) because of it’s flagrant antics. Do you know something about Google that we should know?

  9. Well hell George you know as well as I do that the American people will always vote for the worst of the two evils, be it an old worn out movie star or a shady lady and if we should get one in office who would wish to change things why then a bullet will take care of the job,nope George I’m pushing 80 and have voted in every election since Ike who got my vote both time and now its time to retire from that habit for no matter who you vote in nothing will change.!!

  10. I saw info explaining how the SS rules combined with an increase in the Medicare premium next year means most of us will see a DECREASE in our monthly payment. I am already squeezing my budget to prepare for this situation. My cynical side says they are trying to slowly reduce the numbers of recipients.

  11. George, I’m sticking with the peoplenomics indicator. I’m bullish until it turns around. The peoplenomics indicator has an ok track record. Not perfect but better than many.
    Cheers

  12. the MSM is so controlled it makes me sick!! and makes me wish to honor the constitution as ordered and and purge this country of the scum running it!!

    • Ya gotta have the ‘force’ behind you to do it….none such as a standing militia in EVERY state…gone as the ‘dodo’….imho…Semper Fi