Thinking Through “Kim Puts”

Yeah, the stock market is at record highs.  Not unexpected, and from here we may have even more upside ahead.

But, there is an ugly geopolitical mess half-way around the world:  Korea.  And the task this morning is to look at ways to possibly make a buck, or save some, when that whole thing “blows up.”

It’s a rethink on the old physics problem:  “What happens when an immovable object meets an irresistable force…”

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Thinking Through “Kim Puts” — 18 Comments

    • See other comments: The B wave of the BTC decline should end around $4,300-$4,500 this week (whatever 80% of the decline from 5k to 3k is…oh, $4,600 then.)

  1. Do you have a room – for my comment?

    Bit of a dust-up in the silicon mines of China? Has the other shoe dropped that the seismic shift of an awaited licensing is happening under our collective noses? Stay tuned for cryptocurrency exchanges reporting back to the National Internet Finance Association of China later this month. One could well imagine the Bank of China is spooling up a proprietary blockchain software on Sunway TaihuLight in Wuxi; apparently it’s the region too where “The Art of War” was penned according to Wikipedia. Let’s hope the West can muster the petaflops necessary to maintain exchange controls against any new global currency. Otherwise, perish the dimonic (sp) thought, it will all be over in a flash.

    Thank you for allowing me vent this flight of imagination…just stringing together the bits and bites before next month’s congress.

  2. In his (in)famous book ‘The Prince,’ Machiavelli tells us that the Turkish Sultan would be difficult to conquer as there was no internal opposition to his rule–but once conquered the Turkish empire would be easily ruled because all its subjects were accustomed to slavery. This is how it is likely to be with NK. There’s no need to fight their military, just knock out the politburo and their top generals, and hand off the basket-case North to the SK’s as was done with E Germany to W Germany–
    The way its done is the hard part. The Chinese and Russians stand to gain, no matter how NK is taken down. So instead of a straightforward attack, better to do it in a slightly different way that makes the NKs into a problem for the Russians and/or Chinese. Probably best not to go into details on that, but with a bit of thought anyone could see how it would be done…

  3. Regarding non-citizen voting: I find the idea totally repugnant. Legal immigrants can apply for citizenship after being here from 1-5 years(depending on visa). Legal non-immigrants(students, businessmen, tourists) have the option to learn the ropes and return again as a real legal immigrant. Until one gets citizenship, they are legally an alien, and aliens have no business voting in our elections. Legal immigrants need to be here for a significant period of time to even understand what they are voting for and how the system works. That’s part of the reason for residency requirements before applying for citizenship.

      • Um, no. While I have little fear of dying at my age, I have a huge fear of volunteering to die needlessly.

        I find it interesting Mike, that you imply average Americans grasp the concepts of “what they’re voting for” and “how the system works,” by stating these are things immigrants must learn before becoming Citizens.

        The biggest issue with Congress is the Fools pass poorly-written and unworkable law, then spend years trying to make it work.

        The biggest issue with our political process is the “Low Information Voter.” The LIV pays no attention to politics until two weeks before an election, gets all his information from TV commercials and local conversation during that two week period, then votes for the candidate with whose name he is most-familiar. When the LIV comprised <1% of voters, this wasn't a problem. Now the LIV makes up over 40% of "likely voters" and is a huge problem, because he mechanically votes the local Fool (the candidate whose name he recognizes on the ballot) back into Congress.

        Placing the burden of political process comprehension on immigrants would probably be found unreasonable by the 9th Circus, in today's society…

  4. The entire non-citizen voting thing is just another end-around citizenship for the leftist/globalists. If you look at where this insidious crap is starting, it’s in liberal enclaves, specifically the NYC/DC corridor and the west coast.

    Once again, these two areas are showing their desire to separate from established laws. They wish to avoid the restrictions on certain things written into law, yet they do not wish to give up federal funding. Which is why it is the NYC/DC corridor and California which should either secede or allow the rest of us to do so.

    Unfortunately, this will eventually be painful. While California, Texas and other zones may be able to make it on their own, their policies will require severe adjustments.

    https://www.mercatus.org/statefiscalrankings

    Money from the rest of us is why many states will be unable to survive any change in the makeup of the USA, and why any attempt at secession will be fought. It will not be about gender rights or gun rights or anything else but the same old thing – money.

    Most states receive about 30% of their money sent in to DC back in the form of grants and such. (https://taxfoundation.org/states-rely-most-federal-aid/ ) That is likely required due to the impairment caused by Federal Regulations, and likely why most states run about 30% or so.

    A 30% haircut to state budgets would mean either higher taxes for the seceding state or else a reduction in federal regulations and associated spending. If and when a secession begins, this is one of the things the particular citizens of a state need to watch – because all governments are misaligned from their citizens. Has to be that way, because governments live on OPM.

    The state that secedes will IMMEDIATELY try to raise taxation under any pretense – because they do not want to give up the money they are used to operating with. They consider it THEIR money, not citizen money. They feel entitled to a certain amount, and will fight and lie to maintain that amount or increase it.

    • Amen bubba.

      What say come next Mexico election we load up a few busloads of Texans and go down south to vote.

      See how that shit’d play in the real world.

      Oh, wait…does thinking equality is a two-way street make me a racist, now? Damn should’ve read the memo.

      • Sorry guys, not to sound crass, but up here in the ‘liberal’ PNW, we barely can keep ourselves together, not to mention ‘breaking away’ – maybe Texas has ideas along those lines, but I can tell you that it is only the ‘hard right’ crowd in the inland areas of our area that ‘entertain’ those thoughts . . . most people would reject the idea. If the USA ever broke up, they would be just as likely to say ‘O Canada’ – a lot of people are not fond of California!

    • Looking at the link you posted re: state receipts, it appears that the reddest states are most dependent on government largess. Irony? Hypocrisy? Karma?

  5. How could the USA even be thinking about a first strike when it seems that the only aircraft carrier nearby is the Ronald Reagan? George, you used to keep track of the carriers from time to time. Are they no longer a vital factor?

    • Not AS vital in a strategic sense. The Reagan is “off the coast of Japan.” http://www.gonavy.jp/CVLocation.html
      Remember, the Reagan can do 30 knots – round off to 35 MPH.
      Distance from Osaka to NK is about 900 km (560 statute) – that’s 16 hours steaming time.
      Assume the Reagan is 100 miles off Japan West now it’s 460 statute or 13-hours.
      From a “Go command” from est current position would be less than 2-hours to on target (times for the mushrooms), 3-hours from T.O. to landing, and in 3-hours the cvn is then down to 350 miles out with strike two.
      Vinson and Roosevelt would be ready offshore San Diego (big ocean to hit a carrier in) And toss in the Aegis class and “the boats” (inc. boomers) and it would be a fool’s game to tangle.
      Still, the Kim Put is a damn interesting concept!
      The

      • Unfortunately we have the capabilities to do a first strike from Here..
        This in my opinion would be a stupid mistake.. for several reasons..
        1. Most important ..The average american laborer cannot afford to pay for anymore police actions and the elite sure doesn’t want to pay for it.
        2. the world is watching.. it doesn’t take a brains scientist to understand that we have weakened ourselves by trying to be the worlds police force and going into countries so that a very few can win financially by acquiring the resources of the countries we are in..
        3 we have outsourced our industrial capacities to other countries that we would be going up against.. people forget that Iran didn’t shoot down one of our top secret stealth drones.. it took control of it and landed it.. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93U.S._RQ-170_incident

        https://www.defensetech.org/2012/05/30/smoking-gun-proof-that-military-chips-from-china-are-infected/

        We have both china and russia that are testing our boundries..

        http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/09/us/russian-air-force-tu154-overflight-dc/index.html
        http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2188791/Russian-attack-submarine-slipped-past-US-Navy-patrolled-Gulf-Mexico-weeks-undetected.html

        Now.. they are watching.. for us to do anything like a first strike would be one of the stupidest things ever.. in my opinion.. the best response to this is to back away take the threat away.. Kim .. if he makes a mistake and takes it to the next level then the us would have the alies to rely on.. unfortunately alies don’t like to pay it is good to say hey they can’t do that but you should do something and not pay.. and anyone in another country knows we are hurting and cannot afford to.. our politicians have sold out the american worker.. dumbed up our children.. next time you go to a clinic or a college look and see what you have.. not an american child teaching.. the brains we pay for to get an education from another country..

      • There are counters for most of these points, and in the .mil and .realestatedeveloper world, there may be more testosterone which as we all know can impair brain function in excessive amounts. The real problem that you hit on is the exported sourcing on things like components and such for pcbs wave soldering – you know,t he stuff americans buy.
        Still, the idea of the Kim Puts is a fine exercise is financial opportunism – and in America? Are you kidding? That’s one of the last things we DO around here.

      • Wont we need a false flag attack against an American venue to retaliate against NK? Like the gulf of Tonkin played out to get us into viet nam? Certainly would legitimize any action we take.

    • It is just an exercise for the gamers. The world Marxist community owns Media, and has long-since placed the U.S. in a morally-defensive stance. We daren’t validate the propaganda. We also dare not use tactical nukes, even in response to a NK nuke attack. To do either would make us a “despicable villain,” the historical rhyme of pre WW-II Imperial Japan, and morally justify a World War with everyone against us.

      What we do is wait.

      We wait for Mr. Kim’s vaunted military to make a mistake. Bear in-mind, if things get too tense, the U.S. can probably engineer a “Korean mistake” by covertly bringing one of NK’s ICBMs down on top of a Japanese population center. Whether the U.S. can do so undetectably is above my paygrade, but wouldn’t Osaka make a perfect rhyme for an Archduke? It is an abhorrent thought, and not one I favor in the least, but while I have a good deal of faith in the morals of the majority of Americans in general, little of that faith spills over to the MIC and the politicians they buy.

      Mr. Trump isn’t one of those politicians, but how many of his advisors are…?

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