The Rally, the Jobs Report, the Fearmongers…

imageThe first thing we get to straight is that the market should end the week within a few points of the target number I mentioned in yesterday’s column:  1960.48.

As any damn fool can see (yes, I qualify) the end of the world has not come over the horizon yet.

In fact, far from it, I am still sticking with my prediction of new all-time highs by mid-May.

Be advised, as always THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE.  That would involve me trying to sell you something.  Other than a subscription to Peoplenomics.com, I offer only commentary and things to think about.

Which is why – unlike George Soros, who is becoming somewhat famous lately for talking-his-book – we have to sit back and watch the Madness of Crowds.

This is a none too obscure reference to?   Extraordinary Popular Delusions and The Madness of Crowds.

Granted, the book was published in 1841, but we don’t like to be too aggressive in our reading recommendations – besides, we wanted to see if the book would remain popular.

The original work was done as a three volume set and in volume two the topics included the witchcraft madness the world went through, the Crusades, and other such cases.

The good news (*you can find it on Gutenberg, too) is that voting in a neighborhood organizer as president for two terms may not be the craziest thing crowds have done, after all.

OK, well close, but there are other examples to consider.

To my way of thinking, here is the Kindle eBook that is probably the single best value in the field of investing out there:

Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds: Volume 1, 2, and 3 (Illustrated and Bundled with Psychology of the Stock Market and Irving Fisher on Investment)   That’s a whopping $1.19 on Amazon.

Fisher is the fellow who called for perpetual rally at exactly the wrong time in 1929, but his notes on how to ride a bull market are useful for review.  Especially when the market looks oversold and when good news comes along to stampede the herd  t’other way.

Jobs Picture Improves

Well…sort of.  let’s run through the press release and then focus on a few specifics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 292,000 in December, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.0 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment gains occurred in several industries, led by professional and business services, construction, health care, and food services and drinking places. Mining employment continued to decline.

The number of unemployed persons, at 7.9 million, was essentially unchanged in December, and the unemployment rate was 5.0 percent for the third month in a row.

Over the past 12 months, the unemployment rate and the number of unemployed persons were down by 0.6 percentage point and 800,000, respectively. (See table A-1.)

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for blacks declined to 8.3 percent in December, while the rates for adult men (4.7 percent), adult women (4.4 percent), teenagers (16.1 percent), whites (4.5 percent), Asians (4.0 percent), and Hispanics (6.3 percent) showed little or no change. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)

The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was essentially unchanged at 2.1 million in December and accounted for 26.3 percent of the unemployed. The number of long-term unemployed has shown little movement since June, but was down by 687,000 over the year. (See table A-12.)

The civilian labor force participation rate, at 62.6 percent, was little changed in December and has shown little movement in recent months. In December, the employment- population ratio, at 59.5 percent, changed little.

Now then…on this last bit (participation rate) the BLS might have touted that a bit more than they did as it was up 1/10th  but it’s still a plus.

After the figures came out, the S&P futures were indicating a rise in the cash market that would land within a point at my 1,960.48 prediction.  All without too much math.  We’ll get into it tomorrow in Peoplenomics.  But as long as we’re on that…

Ure’s Migration Addition Stimulus Theory Proven

On the call-in to Coast2Coast this week, it was evident that people were skeptical of my views that mass immigration is being a great source of economic stimulus in the short term.  This will go every bit as big as the Housing Bubble, but few people are publicly stating it yet. 

That’s probably because too many economists are learning math first and then hanging out a shingle.  When what they SHOULD be doing is general studies because everything in the world is connected to everything else and this is how hyper-complexity rolls. 

While the ‘offishul” denial continues in peer-review land (where creds are assigned based on complexity for formulas, not whether they actually work) we see over here in this National Journal report that migrants to America now account for 17-percent of the workforce.

This stark truth (if you don’

t mind me repeating myself) is a) why the Obamanites are promoting mass migration – to jack up the economy and why Germany is not in full riot mode in the wake of the thousand-man rape festival in Cologne over New Years:  There’s just so damn much money to be made in the original sort of human trafficking.

Paradoxically, human trafficking for simple sex is generally illegal, but to screw with organic demographic and economic futures at government’s behest…well, that is a different kettle of fish.

Repeat after me:  Migration is where growth is coming from.  The World Bank called the play in 2008 as we explained a while back for our Peoplenomics.com readers.  Why is it so many people are still ignorant?

Well, likely because it’s easier to script the “narration” around saving victims rather than human grist / fuel for the Machine

I’m astounded, too…but people are slow.  Refer to the Popular Delusions examples as noted above.

Winding Up the Robots

Reuters story not to miss: “Islamic State member executes his mother in Syria: monitor.”

Speaking of ‘bots…

Edward Snowden speaks at Consumer Electronics Show disguised as a robot…   makes it tough for the FBI.  Ever try to arrest an I.P. address?

From the World’s Greatest Gun Salesman

Obama mocks ‘conspiracy’ at forum on gun control.” 

The Urban News Nose Knows Nose News

And to prove it, two stories:  Sniffing air over the Pacific doesn’t confirm NK nuke – yet.

And in California: You can’t work them bureaucrats too hard.  After leaking for how long?  The State of California has finally gotten around to calling that Porter’s Ranch area gas leak an emergency.

Who the F are these people and why do they get fat pensions?  I must be missing something.  To my way of thinking this should have happened on day two or three….  Perhaps my elderly news nose knows a barnyard scent when it’s in the wind.

I think it would be interesting to FOI phone logs to see how much “coordination” there has been with the utilities which could lose billions in damages says the diligent L.A. Times… Of course that would all be circumstantial and coincidental, I’m sure.

Free Money Dept.

Government Sends Obamacare Payments Without Verification.  Love it.

 

8:10 AM S&P futures are now up 21.  Come to daddy…

Comments

The Rally, the Jobs Report, the Fearmongers… — 5 Comments

  1. That ISIS story takes ‘turning in your parent(s)’ to a whole new level, but then again if she had raised the creep better, it might not have happened. Makes one wish though for the ancient Roman custom of having the power of ‘life and death’ over one’s own children . . .

    (That new computer of yours looks kina sweet – nice price – I remember buying a 128K Apple II Plus (with daisy-wheel) for $4,000 – and this is GIGABYTES for God’s sake and under $200!!! Yikes!)

    • Sorry should have said ‘Daisy-wheel printer’ – too early for me I guess . . .

  2. Obama is great at belittling competition and trying to shame them into submission, but in this case there is conspiracy on BOTH sides of the gun issue. And since everything IS a business model…

    Anti-gun Nuts get contributors to their tax exempt club and get to keep rolling on paying themselves; Obama gets to crusade for something and be the center of attention (his self-references alone are an excellent indicator of his narcissistic inclination), and gun/ammo manufacturers get to up their sales every time Obama makes a statement or threat regarding gun control.

    Am I the only person out here who owns excessive ammo and mags because I got roped into this a few years ago??

    Not gonna happen again…reloader will cure many worries.

  3. Hey, Governor Snyder has just gotten around to declaring lead-infused water supply in Flint as an emergency, only a year after the test results were in on the water, and the evidence of mass lead poisoning of the residents was already being compiled.

    But the decision to poison that city was unilaterally taken by his business buddy that he appointed in a bloodless coup to take the place of all elected local officials, so he chose last February to ridicule the scientists pointing out the poisoning. The likely cost (aside from lifelong brain damage to children) is north of a billion dollars. It would have cost $100 a day to prevent.

    And he still hasn’t done a thing about distributing drinking water to those 100,000 people.

    Comparing that to the utility company accident that releases methane, I’d say the deliberate creation of a disaster wins.