Peoplenomics this weekend was, if I do say so myself, one of the better ones in that it explained a curious bit of (simple) math that demonstrates the market tendency to become very nonlinear ultra-low interest settings like those expected in the period ahead.
The nonsubscriber way of thinking of it goes like this: The closer interest rates get to zero, the more volatile the market becomes. That’s because stock prices become cost-justified as infinitely high on an earnings basis just before yields hit zero, and then, once that barrier is passed, they become infinitely overpriced!
Yes, it’s a crazy way of looking at things, but the math holds up – and now we’ve got more research ahead to see how much of the market actually moves on the mathematical foundations laid out.
It’s like that Sunday football game. Oh, sure, there were statistical indicators of what would happen, but there’s always that “emo component” – emotional component – that works its way into investment decisions and which team you support.
Just like I can’t understand how people get all wrapped-around-the-axle on a sports team, the answer is really quite simple: It’s all about what goes on down at the archetype level that CG Jung wrote so eloquently about. I won’t ask you to whip out your copy of Memories, Dreams, Reflections, but transference behavior is oftentimes a “mother transference” and by the rule of “least resistance” the closest substitute wins. Mass marketing of sports is what we get.
This is not to say that sports fans (and investors) are all idiots when it comes to manipulation of their emotions, but the reason that sports franchises have mascots is precisely because it enables and empowers transference that to the fan – at the experiential level – seems “normal.” But to the aware (recovered sports addict or aware investor) the method is easily seen and stripped of its power to herd us blindly.
Just as the Seattle “Seahawk” in an amalgam of northwest First People’s myths, the bronco has it’s own Wikipedia listing, as well. It’s quite ridiculous to cheer for any team, particularly one that may pay less (percentage-wise) in taxes than me or you. Yet millions did it Sunday, not realizing they were cheering for either a…
… large raptor, reaching more than 60 cm (24 in) in length and 180 cm (71 in) across the wings.
Or, they were sucked into cheering for…
Raptor or untrained horse. It’s insane, but only if you detach and looking for meaning.
My (How’s your hangover?) column this morning will not get into the depths of MMMR (managing multiple matrices of reality) as it relates to sports – and investing. That will be discussed in more detail for subscribers in Peoplenomics Wednesday.
I’m just pointing out that people will cheer for the damnedest things (fish, birds, social or racial subtypes) and not realize they are being “worked.”
In similar fashion, the markets have not yet crashed (although, give it time) because there are many market players who are too dumb to figure out (as great sage Jimi Hendrix warns us) “Castles made of sand, fall in the sea, eventually.”
Which is why, after the silliness of the Sunday, it’s time to roll out our new mascot around here. No, we don’t know how long he’ll be around, but already the Urban Bears are kicking the average investor’s ass in Seattle-like style.
We can report the Bears whipped the Nikkei’s by almost 2%, the Chinns by 106 points, and in Europe, the Bear was continuing his run for the gold by beating the Frogs by 18 points and ahead of the Huns by 66, although both of those games are still underway.
Also in play, the Bears versus the Queens with the bears ahead by 45-points.
The US game will be getting underway shortly, but we notice the monthly unemployment report won’t be out until Friday as the Labor Department has been on the injured reserve list from the partial government shutdown last year. They’ve never made it back into the action. Instead, fans will have to watch slow car sales and dwindling construction as they look for a reason to bet against the Bears.
Down here at the old sports book, we notice the Bears have won three weeks running in the S&P playoffs. And only the most casual fan of Reality Bears would overlook in the stats that the Bears have ruled since Christmas week.
As you settle up on those office wagers today, you might think about putting a little something on the Bears next. They’re looking sharp and the team makes a lot more sense around here than washed out birds or bucked-up horses.
“Go bears, or go broke.”
I trust you know what the Seattle win means by the Super Bowl Indicator?
More after this…
(I have no idea what this means. Usually Amazon ads make sense to OFs like me, but this one is included because it’s so…uh….mysterious. No clue what it means, but I will try it later, since I don’t have any friends… Now, where we we? )
Happy Times Ahead for East Africa, Turkey
Well, not quite. Understanding this next story requires you have your UrbanSurvival concealed carry training card with you….which means you know what a man-portable air-defense system is (MANPAD) and that it knocks airplanes out of the sky…
Dear Mr. Ure,
Links are circulating to this “Armament Research Services” article of manpad related weaponry allegedly captured from rebels in South Sudan. While the verbal focus is on the weapons, evidently the seizure was worthy of a photo-op. Perhaps one may deduce out of the picture link from “The East African” discussion board that a son of the president of Uganda could be present.
Gold star for our Winnipeg news analyst fellow on this. And while we wait for planes to start dropping, we also should have our eyes on Turkey, figures warhammer…
It is becoming clear that the U.S. retraction into isolationism, the reluctance of Europe to play a leading role in Syria and the perseverance of radical Islamic factions led by al Qaeda are collectively precipitating an increased likelihood for instability in the Middle East region.
Now Turkey finds itself drawn into the cauldron of chaos, finding itself having to defend its borders and territory from incursion with overt but limited military action.
As Turkey joins the fray, the regional dynamic intensifies, with the potential for larger scale armed conflict seriously escalating.
Instead of the West proactively infusing meaningful measures to encourage peace, such as deliberate enforcement of nuclear and ballistic missile arms control, naval embargoes, intensified economic sanctions, and the demand for the surrender and dismantling of Syrian chemical weapons, the U.S. and it’s allies stand idly by as the pieces click firmly into place for armed confrontation.
There are simply too many competing pieces in play for the situation to end with a completely peaceful resolution for all interested parties. Turkey is a member of NATO, and along with Israel, is an ally of the U.S. Should Turkey fully engage insurgent forces, formal military treaties are more likely than not to fall into play. Turkey is also less hostile to Israel than other Islamic nations. If the two nations share a perceived threat, a loose alliance of convenience between them against Iranian supplied Syria, Hammas and Iraqi al Qaeda elements cannot be ruled out.
Without an active U.S. role, Turkey may also feel empowered to take liberties with their Kurdish problem, leading to a series of military incursions into N. Iraq. Turkey is definitely a major player and a regional force to be reckoned with.
The good news just keeps on coming, George, as Middle East tensions continue to rise. It seems not a matter of if, but when the tension will lead to some type of sizable armed engagement. One might rightfully wonder why the world powers are allowing the chaos to grow? Other than the large scale loss of blood and treasure, what is their grand plan and desired outcome?
I’m scratching my grayling head these days pondering such things.
It all becomes a curious balancing act. On the one hand, the US can back out of foreign entanglements, which in a sense will slow down the NWO’ers who owned US foreign policy. But as we’ve done that (which saves some money) we see The Enterprise is now solidly in control of the EU which brings us to…
EU Annexing Ukraine, Russia Next
Except, of course, Russia is not going to put up with that EU from Lisbon to Vladivostok crap, but they will be nicey-nice until after the Sochi games.
For the next couple of weeks, the EU has Putin in a box, and the Enterprise is pressing for the EU to take power effectively, from Russia as “Ukrainian Opposition presses for further concessions.”
And as if to remind Vlad Putin who is pulling the strings of so-called terrorists in the world nowadays, student shooter killed two in Moscow this morning.
This will make a lot more sense after reading the MMMR piece in Peoplenomics Wednesday, but imagine the bad guys had taken over the US, they’re into the EU now, and planning to finish off the rest of the world….so what we see if the headline stuff, now the levels below the surface, but that’s where the action is.
Shocking Corruption in the EU
This notion – that the Enterprise has gone to Europe and is subverting everything in sight to become part of its ever-growing globalist/corporate mafia – is borne out elsewhere, too. Just check out this morning’s BBC report about how “Corruption across EU’ ‘breathtaking’ – EU Commission.”
All of which means, like in the US experience, there may be a few good guys around, but the Enterprise has a way of weaseling where it wants to go and since they are buddy-buddy with Al Qaeda now, it has all becoming quite entertaining to watch.
Unless you’re Vlad Putin, of course.
Kid Korea’s New Rant
US- South Korea military exercises could trigger a new war in Koreaville, warns the Rodman Fan Club envoy to our side.
The real deal? A couple of clean US nukes would be less radioactive than Fukushima and would do wonders for US automakers.
Just how effing dumb is Kid Korea that he doesn’t see it? “Sucka punch, Kid!”
Slime, Lawyers, and Where’s the Beef?
The company that makes what ABC called “pink slime” that is injected into hamburgers and such, is suing the network. They’re compensation after $1.5 billion in stock price collapse and $233 mil of lost profits.
Meantime, we keep waiting for media to pick up on, and report, the water-injection into meat practices that allow processors to artificially bulk up the prices for the same cuts of meat that can be made to weigh more – and yes, it’s why meat now often “dips” while cooking, something it didn’t used to do in the “old days.”
“Moister meat”? Ha…fatter purse!
Meantime, water injection and so on may help consumers deal with the fact that the drought plagued cattle industry now has the smallest herd sizes since 1951.