The Noise Floor in News and Trading

Yes, we are going through a process right now of trying to discern the “most likely future” but we are doing so in an incredibly “noisy” environment.

It’s very, very easy to make a whole ton of money investing – IF you have a rock-solid idea about what the FUTURE will look like. Problem is: Many people who hold out “knowledge of the future” are seldom right much more than a Gaussian percent of the time. Which makes our filtration processes more difficult.

I mean, think about it: This morning with have a wide assortment of news that COULD be shaping the future. BUT we don’t (and won’t) know until the future actually arrives.

The good news for investors is this: IF you know where to look, THEN you can do a little better than chance. And a slight edge, over time, is all it takes to win Big.

The big “static crash” (to use an HF radio analogy) that we are working through presently is BREXIT.

In terms of digital signal filtering (or even extremely sharp analog filters) there is a problem to be found in the “ringing effect” following a large input. And yes, BREXIT is a large input, but it’s hard “to copy” (another radio term, sorry) whether there is meaningful information contained in some of the “ringing” – which the non-electronics type might see as the stories about additional countries leaving – or whether it is just normal “filter ringing.”

My Substitution Method of Learning says that once you know the form of knowledge from any one domain of study, it is oftentimes transferable – at least in form- to another.

With all of this in mind (if it’s not asking too much) consider the problem posed by this reader comment:

“How related to the Brexit is this story by Zerohedge?

Futures Spike After Banks Unveil Tens Of Billions In Buybacks”

Who would coordinate such an event and were the banks given the money to do this by the Fed?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-29/futures-spike-after-banks-unveil-tens-billions-buybacks

This is precisely the kind of thing we have been tracking over on the Peoplenomics side of the house. We will get a report this afternoon, likely after the close, which will disclose the updated Fed creation/pump rate for M1.

As I told you a month, or so, back: The Fed has tacitly endorsed the democratic ticket by jacking up the present M1 run rate to the vicinity of 13-17%. But what makes specific ascertainment somewhat complicated is the fact that M1 thrown quickly into the markets to forestall a global crash need not come out as a statistical revelation under perhaps a month (*maybe a bit longer) after the actual “crime” has been committed.

[Reader note:  I have mixed feeling on whether massive money manipulation is a “crime” if it is not revealed to the public real-time on the one hand, but postpones the end of the financial world on the other…]

Thus, I would expect that in a month, or so, we will be able to see the M1 run rate jacked up to something like 18-20% and maybe even more.

This hysteresis (time lage between cause and effect) is used to great advantage by some. I sort of favored (until BREXIT) use of the 90-day Euro futures for a similar purpose (fortune telling) but that was off in the background as we’ve developed simpler methodologies that seem to work just fine.

BUT while we understand the likely structure of the US Bailout following BREXIT (yet to be revealed, but I think safely assumed, especially when you look at the injection and odd rally in the market the day before-hand) we still don’t know if that was a singular “static crash” of whether there are additional data hidden in the ringing.

Toughie, no?

All of which gets us to the matter of “What is the next data?” and it’s here our news analyst up in Winnipeg comes through:

“It seems counter-intuitive that a pair of whistle blowers to a haven’s tax avoidance scheme have been sentenced to jail terms by the Luxembourg justice system according to the BBC. The tiny country’s former leader, now the appointed head of the European Commission that effectively runs the EU, was allegedly not unknowing of the multi-national corporation tax avoidance schemes. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36662636

Regards,”

And if they knew it, seems more than likely that multiple key EU Officials not only knew of but would likely have been involved in the specific orchestration of selective enforcement policies. But that’s how shit rolls up top-side, ain’t it?

Why, these old boys, legardless (sic) of circumstances, should all set up “family foundations.” Go on the speaking tours, know what I mean?

Meantime, No Boris in Prime (minister) Time.

To Market, To Market

The market, needless to may will go up a fraction more before the 4th, but in coming weeks, we sort of hope for a quick return to the 1,970 (or slightly lower like 1,955) level of the S&P because in my work, a nice double-bottom to the present wave 4 (basis the 5 wave up-move that commenced in 2009) would set the stage for the final blow-off rally before Worldageddon in 2017-2018 At which time you are invited to watch the World bend over as the world kisses its financial a$$ good-bye.

I’ll be the nerdy dude in the corner with a collection of shorts…For this morning I just can’t picture a higher market right AFTER the holiday.

Plane Speaking Among Elites

Here we have the boss(ette) of the USDOJ *(Department of Just Us) meeting at an airport (and jet to jet) with the husband/spousal unit of the presumptive democratic high bidder for the Presidency.

This, while Loretta Lynch holds that such hubby-side chats will not influence her profound inaction on the as yet unfiled Clinton email charges. And I’m the pope.

Which is why we unabashedly refer to the Department of Just Us because it doesn’t look out for the interests of you and me.

Example #2:, the Lynch Mob is presently law and judge-shopping in order to find a work-around for the Obamanation’s being slapped-down by the Supremes on the matter of made-up immigration policy contrary to federal law and the intent of Congress.

Who?

We have the ideal elevator music for the DOJ picked out this morning, over here.

Need Still More Corruption?

Well, how about the Feral (sic) Election Commission trying to prosecute (but beingt blocked) because they were responsive to the public need, interest, and concerns by holding the GOP debates?

What I recall, and correct me if I am wrong on this (which is possible barreling into 68), is that there were several attempts to organize the same kind of thing on the democratic side, but SHE was too busy playing front-runner – something which could still fall apart since Huma seems to be appearing on To Tell the Truth.

Music of the Republic

In passing, here’s a zillion dollar idea for you if you are an rising musical star: Remember the patriotic song (“America”) that begins “My Country t’is of Thee…”?

I’m thinking that ought to be remixed as a single – with new, more current lyrics. I’m thinking something like:

My Country Used to be

Great land of Liberty, to thee I sing.

Land where illegals hide

Land where Pres Kennedy died,

From every mountainside

Corruption zings.

Or something like that. Put me down as the co-author, thanks. I could use the royalties. I think done in a kind of a Gregorian chant with lots of pictures of urban decay it would make a hell of a Trump or Bernie song. (Reader note: I had to say Trump or Bernie to avoid the FEC democratic Star Chamber.)

Why, they could do a whole separate one on Syria. Except it would begin…

“This country used to be…

Neocons set it free,

And now it stings…

Land where Vlad Putin stopped

(yada yada)

We need to put a rush on this because it refers to God and there is still time for President Useless to execufy around it.

(Did I take a double-dose of meds this morning, or just the fresh can of coffee kicking in?)

I’ve also got a remake of “Lizzie Border took an axe and gave her family 40 whacks…”  but I’m saving that for Lizzie Warren’s VP run.  Lizzie Warren took and axe and gave the Donald (yada yada).  I’ll be auctioning those lyrics at Sotheby’s if I can.  All on very collective museum/evidence-grade grade paper in 12.9 PX Times New Roman…

Meantime, Back in the Noise Floor

Kim Kardashian reveals she never saw the final version of Kanye’s Famous music video until premiere.”

Oh, Thank God.

No. Seriously this kind of thing helps me understand opiate abuse.

Been a fine week so far.  I’m going to go delete emails now.  Ya’ll have a fine day. 

Like we say here on the bridge of the StarWrekLive wrong and prosper.

Comments

The Noise Floor in News and Trading — 13 Comments

  1. Ref: Lizzy Borden. “When she saw what she had done, she gave her father 41.”

    Bwhahahahahahahah!

  2. “As the reasons for the carnage cut their meat and lick the gravy
    We oil the jaws of the war machine and feed it with our babies.” 2 minutes to midnight: Iron Maiden

  3. Now this is odd….I’ve been banking with the same bank for decades..I knew my branch manager when he was a part time student..
    I like the paper trail..write checks for all my major bills and buy groceries etc..
    today I get a letter telling me that due to the new federal guidelines limiting how many withdrawals you can make that I make more than the six they allow without penalty..but i can make as many cash withdrawals at the teller…
    ok..so what’s up with that..paying just the utilities is more than the six allowed..figure in groceries etc..my average hovers about fifteen..give or take. .is this just a ploy to make more money by selling a different product..or is the banking community trying to keep people from spending..
    I’ll call tomorrow..but heck I have some set up on auto deductions
    ok..so what’s up with that..the utilit

  4. Never fear.. the stock market will bounce back.. at least till next spring.. Like I said earlier this year.. I felt there would be some sort of false flag stock market thing happen end of June first part of July.. so that the top one percent could buy corporations stocks at rock bottom prices to gain control of everything..
    that way in a year when the hockey pucks really hit the fan it propels them into the next universe of control and power..
    Of course that is just my opinion..
    as far as money maniupulation being a crime.. I can almost bet that the one percent will have people on the floor of congress making sure that something will be passed so that it won’t..
    Just look what that bill in 98 did when it opened the doors for the members of congress and their stock market trading.. ( this is from 2012 but the original bill hit the floor years before that..) https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/members-of-congress-trade-in-companies-while-making-laws-that-affect-those-same-firms/2012/06/23/gJQAlXwVyV_story.html

  5. Here in Central Texas, I have had occasion to drive on Interstate 35 between Austin and DFW, on weekdays, doing business, several times since school let out. In Austin that usually means better traffic, as well as better I-35 traffic, because 50,000 kids went home. But this year, the traffic is amazing. Most amazing, perhaps, is that the roads are clogged with 18 wheelers, in both directions, gravel trucks, cement trucks, pickup trucks pulling trailers with equipment, trucks pulling enclosed trailers, and hundreds of cars with out of state plates. You pretty much have to be going to Austin or San Antonio to find yourself arriving there from another state. So what i am seeing, plus what I hear from propane truck drivers and phone line installers about the influx of people, especially Californians, is that commerce here is exploding from mass quantities of money coming in. The oil downturn apparently HELPED because Texas has so many other industries now which profit from low energy prices. I wonder if this is happening elsewhere? Certainly Austin typically votes Democrat, as the recipient of the loot from the 10th largest economy in the World, were Texas a country (11th if California were a country) with the suburbs not bothering to vote much, but Texas isn’t going to be Clinton country, absent some huge event. So the money printing seems to be hitting here but Dallas, etc as well. Any signs in Democrat states of this?

  6. From the night of the brexit vote –

    There’s a brexit hush
    All over the world, tonight
    All over the world you can hear the sound
    of traders in shock
    you know what I mean…

    Just the one percent
    And nobody else, tonight
    And nobody else who can hear the sound
    of traders in shock …

    From what I see in today’s column, I’m quite sure you can improve vastly on my attempt …

  7. For the Love of God, George!!! Can’t we have at least ONE Kardashian-Free Zone in the world??? Please – make it stop (at least here!!!!!!). I’m starting to think you’re obsessed with them. :-)
    On a more serious note, can’t get time to send you an email on other stuff.
    Happy 4th.

  8. Banks can ‘buy back’ all they want; ie, theyre using ‘thier own’ $$$ or more exactly the FEDs ‘free money’

    Hers the problem: while they can do these types of things, and increase the money supply indefinitely, ie., ‘unlimited ? QE’ where it will start to come apart is on the money velocity side. increasing qe indefintely will only serve to increase the wealth of the rich, who have the means/tools to capitalize on this easing. but as money velocity slows to a crawl, ie, po folks dont benefit, so the money wont turn over as much, it will all collapse. how ofter do rich ppl buy yachts and airplanes and real estate compared to the avg person at the convenince store constantly churning over small amounts $$ for cigs, liquor, milk, etc. thats wher the ‘turnover’ is or ‘money velocity’ an infinitely greater churn than the rich buying big ticket item. as someone once said, ‘quantity has a quality all its own.’ so they can print all they want, but the rich dont turn over money as often, and ultimately this will cause the (big) fail. after unlimited qe, there is no place else to go…..even outright confiscation of $$$ from the rich wouldnt help, even if they could do that, as its now not a quantity prolbem, but a ‘distribution’ problem. getting $$$ into the ‘small hands’…po fo’s

  9. Money – M1 – is fertilizer. Citizens are the crops. Money is “planted” into the system. We all spend the money and the taxes come back home to the governments to keep them alive, growing and getting fat. The profits go to those who open businesses and “reap” the rewards of cash flow. People do well if they can just not spend the money they make lavishly while in business. It’s quite organic, in my view. And being organic, and healthy, the system is based on how much fertilizer is sprayed into it. Who really wants the extra growth? Those in charge who are waiting to catch their profits of the citizens who are “moving the money around”. We are pawns to the kings desires.

  10. [ ] Hi how y’all doing I’m hoping everybody’s having a good day
    [ ] If I had $3 what would I invest in
    [ ] Number one I would invest $0.97 in a 5 x 5 ruled norcom graph composition book
    [ ] Number two I would invest in a pack of seeds probably Tomatoes but probably cucumbers because tomatoes are little caustic but cucumbers are a little on the mild Side
    [ ] Number 3 would probably be either a cheap lighter or a box of matches

    • I know you going to probably say Hey you need a pen to write in to the composition book but I borrowed yours and I didn’t give it back oh well, I’ll give you a tomato or a cucumber as interest for borrowing and using and retaining your pen or pencil

      • https://youtu.be/2vuXU0aFpgk Back to Eden Garden project or you could just say back to the basics or you could say rediscovering our past are you can say hey that’s how they did it way back then how come we don’t do that why are the people who create the money don’t tell us this stuff I mean wouldn’t it be great to just go out you know into your garden you know for the sake 10 minutes to a half hour at the most everyday and you’re able to eat not only are you able to eat but you’re able to feed your family and in 30 minutes a day you could probably feed oh my gosh a whole bunch of other people you know so what are we saying here hey you’ve been screwed over by the establishment everything you’ve learned is wrong and hey there is a better way you betcha just like with electromagnetics we have the ability to use water H2O hydrogen the power all our vehicles and our electrical systems or are we have the ability to use the electromagnetic waves of the earth and then we also have the ability to use the waves the electric waves that come in from outside our solar system and then we also have the ability to use nuclear energy but in a safe way a depleting way another words where are we use it once and will use it over again and it depletes the radiation and then we use it over again and over again but they’re not going to tell you that yes you can have nuclear radiation and it can be safe but they’re not going to show you how to do that mainly because they live off of your fear your fear that I can get out of control with you have and it will they do not want you to know that you and your brain your thoughts have wings and you’re able to control things same thing with nuclear energy they do not want you to know that there is a way to control nuclear energy besides using it for bombs anyway thoughts have wings and may all beings be lovingly fulfilled have a good day

  11. [Reader note: I have mixed feeling on whether massive money manipulation is a “crime” if it is not revealed to the public real-time on the one hand, but postpones the end of the financial world on the other…]
    if it was revealed to noone it would be fine, but banksters have known. which gives them the edge.
    and this makes it a crime.