The Jobs Report–Updated

imageThree things are a foregone conclusion this morning:

1.  The Emperor has not clothes.

2.  The jobs report will show rising employment.

3.  The devil is in the details.

So here we go…

“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 295,000 in February, and the unemployment rate edged down to 5.5 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in food services and drinking places, professional and business services, construction, health care, and in transportation and warehousing. Employment in mining was down over the month. Household Survey Data Both the unemployment rate (5.5 percent) and the number of unemployed persons (8.7 million) edged down in February. Over the year, the unemployment rate and the number of unemployed persons were down by 1.2 percentage points and 1.7 million, respectively.

But wait – there’s more:  Fine print says there were 178,000 fewer people in the workforce.  Huh?

Which then means the labor participation rate dropped back to 62.8% after ticking up in previous months to 62.9%

As always, the CES Birth Death Model (the measurement of “statistically estimated into existence”  jobs is key:  But no, the CES Birth/Death model hadn’t been updated so it’s on my “Saved guffaws for later” list.

CES Updated:  132,000 jobs were estimated into existence, out of the 176,000 claimed in the general report, so net provable was…..no hints here… 44,000.  Futures turned down on the confessional…down 60 I looked.

And the alternative measures of labor underutilization – which is the PhDs flipping burgers index, shows a drop from 11.3% to 11.0 percent (good)_ but we wonder about the impact of long term aid running out on these numbers.

You ever see a government report showing the national homeless number?  Me either.

On, one other foregone conclusion:  The market should be down at the open.  The Baltic Dry Shipping Index is up 2 to 561…around 2009 low levels.

Shhhhshhhh!

Listen closely….. hear it?  Air escaping from a bubble is what it sounds like…or is it?  Maybe not just yet. The pop is still in the fridge.

New Trade Figures

imageFrom Commerce:

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic
Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced
today that the goods and services deficit was $41.8 billion in
January, down $3.8 billion from $45.6 billion in December,
revised. January exports were $189.4 billion, down $5.6
billion from December. January imports were $231.2 billion,
down $9.4 billion from December.
The January decrease in the goods and services deficit
reflected a decrease in the goods deficit of $3.4 billion to
$61.6 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $0.5
billion to $19.9 billion.

Look at the chart and ask “Is this what the beginning of the collapse of Globalism looks like?”

Happens with all Depressions, no reason this one should be different.

Falling Europe

I’ve been saying for years (as has Jim Sinclair) that the Euro isn’t just a bad idea, it’s up there in the terrible department.  I mean, think about it:  Why would an otherwise rational country like Germany get roped into stupidly paying off the debts of Greece, which are only owed to banks who could be screwed and everyone would applaud, anyway.  Like Iceland,…or am I the only one with a memory left on this rock?

Anyway, this morning we see how the Euro is almost down to US dollar levels.

But this gets me to the main point of this outburst of ranting:  The Euro is coming down to the level of the dollar, which since 1913 has been hollowed out of more than 95% (almost 96% now) of its purchasing power.

The Big Lie continues – thanks Keynesians:  Prices don’t “go up” – the purchasing power of money “goes down.”  It does down to “make up money” for deficit spending.  Interest is not mined on Pluto…

But hey, if you want to keep taking the blue pill, then fine, you deserve what you get.

I used to think Germans and French were pretty smart folks (Mach, Currie, and so forth) but thanks to the Ure-a-pee’in Onion, I have completely trashed my opinion of them.

Like spawning Hitler and Frenchies selling military ships to Russia wasn’t mind-numbing enough. 

You can lead a horse to water, but you can’t make ‘em think.

How Much Did That Cost?

Meantime, what Europe needs is a war in order to raise taxes so I can’t hold back on pointing out that John Boehner, et alia, are trying to force the Obama administration to arm Ukraine.

So, let me see here:  We haven’t cut off relations with France for building naval vessels  for Russia and now we want to arm Ukraine to the teeth…all of which will continue building toward our projected eventual ground war in Ure-Up over the Dnieper-Donets petroleum resources that run just west of Russia’s borders. 

Can’t have free and independent countries with oil, so quick like a bunny, rope them into the EU and have them get aid along with Greece and hold them for future exploitation.

See how history flips? 

In the 1950’s it was the Soviets who were paranoid about buffer states.  Now it’s the EU which is trying to (and I quote an EU fat cat here) “expand as far as Vladivostok   Which would be like Canada expanding its borders to, oh, Panama, or so.  (Go ahead, check the mileage…might be Peru…so send me a note, but you get the idea.)

Imperial/paranoid Russia has flipped to Imperial/paranoid Europe.  Both of which were/are broke, BTW, but if we can light off a ground war…

So what is the Defense Industry paying for this (pending but be patient) war, this time? And, will it show up in the www.opensecrets.org reports before big flashes start going off?

Does the Fed Go Far Enough?

The Bank Stress Tests, called out in Dodd-Frank give us some idea where the edge of the financial cliff is:

The most severe hypothetical scenario projects that loan losses at the 31 participating bank holding companies would total $340 billion during the nine quarters tested. The “severely adverse” scenario features a deep recession with the unemployment rate peaking at 10 percent, a decline in home prices of 25 percent, a stock market drop of nearly 60 percent, and a notable rise in market volatility.

My question is:  what happens when unemployment hits 12-15% as robotics continue to wipe out jobs? And what happens if the D word comes along instead of ‘deep recession?”

Yeah, yeah, shut up George time.

Most recent money creation figures show M1 creation running 8.8% annualized while M2 is running 6.3%.

I regret not being the guy selling ink to the government.

Caterpillars of Destruction

Not to offend the folks who work at Cat, but did you see how ISIS has bulldozed a key archeological site in Iraq?

AK-47’s on to Raptors and such…sure, we get that.  But turning bulldozers into weapons of mass media…well, ISIS knows no bounds of audacity.

No shortage of audacity in the world..especially when comes to people defining progress.

Now, go load up from one of these…

Comments

The Jobs Report–Updated — 2 Comments

  1. George your the best .. you always brighten my day with your great vision and observations

  2. Don’t drag Marie Currie into this! She was was actually Polish. Full name Maria Sklodowska-Currie. The French wouldn’t have the guts to work with such dangerous materials as radium or polonium. I think she was ultimately a naturalized citizen of France though.