The Janet Effect

Yeah, we are feeling vindicated by the market action Wednesday.  Because as expected, the “Janet Effect” worked and that has broken the market out of a short-term trend and it clears the way for the final climb to our long-predicted August 21st area all time highs.

Along the way, we should see gold come back to life (a bit) and with that, Bitcoin COULD snap out of its sideways action we have called the “great hesitation” before it goes on to an all-time high that MIGHT be in the area of $3,000 to $3,100 per.

But to us, the biggest among these is the market breaking through the top of a declining trend line and throwing money into our trading account, since we have been playing the long side based on our (wackjob) estimates this would be happening.

(Continues Below)

 

This morning, Fed head Ms Yellen will visit with the fools on the Hill, but when you think about it, it’s more or less pointless.

They can’t seem to do anything about the Obamacare mess (so brace for another 25% med cost hike in 2018, they can’t do anything about a tax break, and they sure as hell haven’t acted like republicans on things like borders, immigration, and so on.

Nevertheless, her message about the economy was almost totally upbeat:

” …the economy appears to have grown at a moderate pace, on average, so far this year.

Although inflation-adjusted gross domestic product is currently estimated to have increased at an annual rate of only 1-1/2 percent in the first quarter, more-recent indicators suggest that growth rebounded in the second quarter. In particular, growth in household spending, which was weak earlier in the year, has picked up in recent months and continues to be supported by job gains, rising household wealth, and favorable consumer sentiment.

In addition, business fixed investment has turned up this year after having been soft last year. And a strengthening in economic growth abroad has provided important support for U.S. manufacturing production and exports. The housing market has continued to recover gradually, aided by the ongoing improvement in the labor market and mortgage rates that, although up somewhat from a year ago, remain at relatively low levels.

With regard to inflation, overall consumer prices, as measured by the price index for personal consumption expenditures, increased 1.4 percent over the 12 months ending in May, up from about 1 percent a year ago but a little lower than earlier this year. Core inflation, which excludes energy and food prices, has also edged down in recent months and was 1.4 percent in May, a couple of tenths below the year-earlier reading.

It appears that the recent lower readings on inflation are partly the result of a few unusual reductions in certain categories of prices; these reductions will hold 12-month inflation down until they drop out of the calculation. Nevertheless, with inflation continuing to run below the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run objective, the FOMC indicated in its June statement that it intends to carefully monitor actual and expected progress toward our symmetric inflation goal.”

Smart as Yellen is, I don’t see the point of talking to a bunch of do-nothings, and were it not a legal requirement she appear, she’d be better off grabbing a double Americano and going to the office to do real work…

Because Congress, sure as hell, doesn’t seem to do much of anything…so why tell them?  Janet ought to start tweeting, huh?

Meantime, the financial news this morning continues to tell good things about the economy such as “Redfin: Home Prices and Buyer Competition Hit New Highs in June as Inventory Drought Dragged into 21st Consecutive Month.”

So our August high call still looks grand.

Where’s the Lynch Mob?

Speaking of the FotH (fools on the hill), did you see The Hill has an “Exclusive: DOJ let Russian lawyer into US before she met with Trump team…” As the Web Turns, huh?

We would have liked to see a more comprehensive investigation done thoroughly and promptly, but that would not have fed the failing news industry.  Go ahead and think about that, for a second.

What would be the lead items in the (desperation) media with no “personality news?”  Already you can see them turning to such “news” and Jared and Ivanka do Skitown while also touting how Kid Rock may run for the Senate from Michigan.

This last reminds us that yes, there is something in the water in Michigan, right?  Kid Rock as a republican?  OMG, ViseGrip me.

Eyeing the Trump de France

Well,  here we go again.  The press is covering the wrong story, we see, as the Washington Posts runs with “The Latest: A chaotic motorcade ride for reporters in Paris.”

Pardon moi, but this is NOT the story to bite nails over.

The story to bite nails over is this:

This weekend (or is it tomorrow?) Trump and the French hosts, Macron, et al, will lunch on the middle level of the Eiffel Tower.  Fine.

EXCEPT that at the end of June Thieves stole hand grenades and other weapons from a Portuguese military base in the middle of the day.

We have heard various accounts of what was taken but the security problem for the French and American details is if nothing bigger than a Laws rocket, then the threat is close in.  But if there were something like TOW missiles involved, then the range of threat rolls out 2-3 MILES and that’s a nightmare.

The story so far has been than hand grenades and a bunch of 9 mm rounds were taken, but if you were knocking over an armory, would you stop with sporting goods store material, or would you take some heavies?

I’d be worried about something like the TOW2-B,  BGM-71D variant; the BGM-71F with a 2.8 mile range.  And no, if any of those were at the armory (or taken) the governments aren’t talking.  Except, of course, to suggest the armory theft was terrorism related.

OMG is that a hard conclusion to reach, or what?

I will feel soooo much better when Trump is back on American terra firma.  I worry about everything…

Producer Prices/Final Demand

So back to economic data.  Press release, please?

“The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.1 percent in June, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices were unchanged in May and rose 0.5 percent in April. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index advanced 2.0 percent for the 12 months ended in June.

In June, almost 80 percent of the rise in the final demand index is attributable to prices for final
demand services, which increased 0.2 percent. The index for final demand goods edged up 0.1
percent.

Prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services increased 0.2 percent in June. For the 12 months ended in June, the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services advanced 2.0 percent.

Final Demand

Final demand services: Prices for final demand services moved up 0.2 percent in June, the fourth consecutive increase. Most of the June rise can be attributed to a 0.3-percent advance in the index for final demand services less trade, transportation, and warehousing. Prices for final demand transportation and warehousing services edged up 0.1 percent. In contrast, the index for final demand trade services moved down 0.2 percent. (Trade indexes measure changes in margins received by
wholesalers and retailers.)

Product detail: A major factor in the June increase in the index for final demand services was prices for securities brokerage, dealing, investment advice, and related services, which rose 4.0 percent. The indexes for machinery and equipment wholesaling, loan services (partial), insurance, inpatient care, and truck transportation of freight also advanced. Conversely, margins for apparel, footwear, and accessories retailing declined 3.7 percent. The indexes for motor vehicle maintenance and repair (partial) and for airline passenger services also fell.”

With this, the market is expected to open up only 10 on the Dow but 13 on the NASDAQ…

Useless News

Not to be critical here, but as Google News and others continue to bang on Donald Trump Jr. this and that, in our survey, we have been finding the MSM are running about nearly 50% Trump email content, even though it’s a who cares…

If you’re looking for a less hysterical view of events, we’ve been tooling up a new website in our (non-existent) spare time. www.computationalfuture.com.

We use a different RSS feed selection in order to get broader (business and urban survival oriented) content.

The idea is (if I can get the software bugs out of it) that people might find news more useful if delivered on a timeline basis.  Or, my colleague Grady with the Nostracodeus project has a concept called indicator words that are often associated with events prior to actual news taking place.  That will be an interesting aspect, also.

Timelines are interesting because the whole Trump email mess goes back a whole year and despite the anti-Trump true believers hopes, there’s not much from last year that will impact next year.  Like people driving forward while looking where the country has been….

But more as the project rolls along…just thought you’d like another news aggregation to consider in addition to our Break News page which is a kind of lite version of this other site…

Comments

The Janet Effect — 32 Comments

  1. Kid Rock IS a Republican, and fairly conservative for a Michigander. Wanna shocker? Marilyn Manson is, despite his religious leanings and social peccadilloes, extremely politically conservative (as in: Considerably to the right of Libertarianism.)

    One of my adages is: Never judge a performer by their stage persona.

    That said, entertainment types gots ta eat too, so it is difficult to get the non-loons into a political discussion, and damn’ near impossible to get any performer’s non-left-wing opinion into print or pixels. They don’t talk, or they don’t work (‘cuz they live in the land of the free…)

  2. “Them that don’t know him
    Won’t like him and them that do
    Sometimes won’t know how to take him
    He ain’t wrong, he’s just different
    But his pride won’t let him
    Do things to make you think he’s right” Waylon Jennings

  3. ISN’T IT OBVIOUS prople voted for DHT because of HRC and not the Russians???

  4. Hi George!!! Just wanted to say that I love the Computational Future site!!! Thanks for doing all the heavy lifting for us!!!!

  5. Smart as Yellen is, her talk would have meant something if our money supply had remained stable (adjusted for population growth!!) since NIXON removed the gold backing for the dollar. Since then it’s just idle prattle.

  6. A couple of days ago I heard that there was a 5.8 earthquake in NK. Probably a nuke test. Now nothing more. Crickets. What is the scoop?

    • The earthquake was reportedly more than a 100 miles offshore, in the Sea of Japan, and more than 300 miles below the seabed. In this case, I have to doubt there’s any smoking gun pointing to a nuke test.

  7. “he fools on the Hill, but when you think about it, it’s more or less pointless.
    They can’t seem to do anything about the Obamacare mess (so brace for another 25% med cost hike in 2018, they can’t do anything about a tax break”

    Seriously now.. Did anyone .. anyone at all have a fantasy that this wouldn’t happen…..
    I was saying to expect this back in 84 whe medical and insurance and the oil industry etc. was deregulated our jobs were outsourced to other countries making a one paycheck home a thing of the past and insurance wasn’t a given benefit for an employer to offer.. Social security and medicare money incorporated in the national budget to bail out a failing banking industry that was to big to fail..( I know what national budget just skimming through the chairmans notes made coffee shoot out my nose and I almost had to have cpr) … in fact what I had been telling everyone is.. what will happen is the insurance companies will get mandatory insurance for everyone taken out of their taxes making a guaranteed profit for the insurance industry.. once everyone has a basic policy then they will sell supplemental insurance policies.. cancer insurance anyone.. how about plastic or corrective surgery.. maybe accident..
    When they had the insurance industries write the law..(you really don’t think a group of macarena dancers.. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tGIr4Mq_4C8 that work a total or less than a month and are still using failed policies that they were running on when I was a teenager as their political platform for reelection would..)

    What everyone is ignoring is.. IT AFFECTS THE HEALTH of a Nation’s citizens.. run away healthcare costs is exactly the platform that Obama ran on during his first tour..
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u3VuIR6t308

    an industry with one in three walking through the door that couldn’t afford private healthcare insurance and an insurance industry that will openly discriminate and price gouge or just plainly tell you that you are uninsurable.. now a family man with or without insurance still loves his kids and family they cannot go into a clinic so they are forced to visit an ER.. these costs have to be passed on to those that do have insurance..
    it was inevitable.. and the only way to fix it is to regulate it once again.( deregulating is is one reason why a medicine in the us is 1250.00 and 250.00 in canada or 75.00 if you get generic). if it isn’t the only other option is for the government to totally take over the industry.( any industry that has a direct affect on the total population is at risk for this to happen.. food, energy.. ) .. why you might ask..it directly affects everyone and the total health of a nation.. remember we are one of the countries ranking in healthcare. http://www.cc.com/video-clips/cbbn22/the-daily-show-with-jon-stewart-third-world-health-care—knoxville–tennessee-edition .
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1hug1qbpbAw.. that is hard to say my guess the same ones that wrote the original bill..
    This also brings old Adolphs second book into mind ( my new scariest book ever ) and what he had to say in how to gain total control over a population with the population baking him..
    I think we have a very interesting future that is laying head of us as a nation

    • change has to be made.. I think Trump is the one that can do it..
      his company does have a retention level over eighty percent.. that in itself says a lot about the man and how he run’s his company..

    • Oh no, the population was not baking Adolf (how did you get that one backwards?). And the Concentration Camps/Gas Chambers WERE NOT DISCOVERED until the war ended.

      Proof that your Alt Right thinking is delusional,in denial, and demonstrating a sinister undertone.

  8. George I find it of interest that you
    continually quote
    all these lies.
    You are aware
    they are
    lies?

  9. “Timelines are interesting because the whole Trump email mess goes back a whole year”

    Not really. It’s the “Russians are coming” that goes back a year. Here is a guy that is arguing that the point of that was the propaganda leadup to war with Russia, which was in the cards once Hillary won. Once she was crowned, the backgrounder for the war would already be in place.
    https://caucus99percent.com/content/okeydoke-americans-were-supposed-get

  10. George, oops. Crybaby, Jr. finally came clean and spilled the beans. And it’s good news, bad news for the Righties.

    Good news. Yes, there really is Fake News. Bad news. Unfortunately, it turns out to be the Righties’ bread and butter.

    I see this admission of collusion as the tipping point. It gives the probable cause for warrants needed to trace the money flows and track down all manner true facts. Rut ro.

    Including why a Russian oligarch would pay Trump approx. 8x the fair market value for the Florida mansion in the middle of the Great Recession. And what’s the Russkie gonna say: Gee, I didn’t have $200 for an appraisal? As I recall, it only took approx. 2x overpayment for his house to bring down Randy Duke Cunningham.

    Best, Mike.

    • Mike – I read that last paragraph of your post someplace else yesterday or the day before. Did you perhaps copy and paste from your own article?

  11. Wow! Ure “Computational Future” website has it all over Drudge, the AP and Reuters. Much more ‘fair and balanced.’ Nice work! It’s now in my bookmarked section.

    • In mine as well. Thanks G for doing this. Makes morning (and an evening scan of headline much easier without the fluff (and fake stuff, misleading crap, and pure propaganda). Drudge2 you could be, but a much better version I’d think.

  12. Pardon moi back to you
    “The Latest: A chaotic motorcade ride for reporters in Paris.”
    I pay for peoplenomics because it is a bargain! I do not want to sign up for wash post, nyt, anything, so why include them in your blog, if they are going to hustle me to see what you posted? Find a way around it or delete it altogether!
    Thank you….b³

  13. I cruised through “Computational Future” a moment ago. It was invigorating to see that a complete world still exists out there. I’ve placed it at the top of my “News” Folder.
    Let’s see how it develops.

  14. I lived in Michigan for 15 – no wait, it was only 11 years, when I took a company transfer and I can attest – there IS something in the water

  15. If I were DJT, Jr. I’d be awfully mad at that Kenyan Obama for allowing the Russian lawyer into the US in the first place. If that Kenyan didn’t allow her in then DJT, Jr. and Team Trump never would have been forced to meet with her.

    Team Trump’s Russian collusion is obviously Kenyan Obama’s fault! It happened on Obama’s watch!

    That’s the view from #IAmARepublican Land.