The Assault on S&P 2,200

When we first began to discuss the possibility of a blow-off top in markets, a lot of the naysayers and charlatans put on the attack dogs.  “World’s gonna end…Ure is an idiot…get gold, guns, grub, and don’t be under the sky because it is falling…”

They were right on the Ure’s an idiot part, but not the rest.

Yet here we are 8-months after I called the market low in February with the blow-off to come, and where are we?

18 points from an S&P 500 breaking through 2,200.  With the futures this morning up 5 more points, that could fall this week and then the only question is which of my targets (2,300 or 2,400) will be reached before the mother of all declines.

There is not a lot to go over with you this morning.  I don’t give a rip about sports, so there goes one third of news.

What we can do is reasonably go over items that could impact our outlook.  These are particular kinds of news stories and the press release calendar.

The Week Ahead

There isn’t much going on today except for a number of bond settlements.  Bonds are likely making a long term bottom.;..and as this happens, hot money will seek higher returns and that is what sets up the pending rally.

Tomorrow we will see productivity and labor cost data.  Most of the other data this week looks quite useless:  Until Friday.

That is when Retail Sales comes out and that for sure is a biggy.

My reasoning is simple:  The latest consumer debt report shows a striking one-month rise of 9% in credit card (revolving debt) use.

At some point, retail will catch up more or less…and optimism – of the sort I have been trying to yammer about for nearly a year – will be here in our faces in an undeniable way.

What is Left?  Headlines

But here we don’t see much that will move markets.


The Health of Hillary

We are moving into a period of very even-handed reporting now since the polls show that the presidential contest is nearly a dead heat – for reasons than frighten me to the core.

Nevertheless, the world perception promoted by the mainstream media is that all Hillary has to do is fog a mirror to win.

Which gets us to the matter of her health as she seemed to have some problems with a half flight of stairs – something caught on film.

Hillary’s other problems include questions about whether her email behavior undermined America’s relationship with Iran.

Then we have the Washington Post questioning promise-versus-performance of Hillary:  She promised 200,000 jobs for upstate New York, but failed to deliver.


Global Winds

Blowing in China where some recent disappointing numbers may keep export prices in check.

On the other hand, industrial output in Germany was stronger than expected in June.  We do have to wonder how much of this is driven by the import of foreigners. there has to be a diffusion study of how long before a population bomb going off runs its course.

Engineering Lesson

It’s called a “single point of failure” and in engineering design what is the one thing you never want to have happen?

Well, in airplanes, for example, there is often some redundancy in larger aircraft.

But not necessarily in airlines.

Delta has just had a power failure computer crash that grounded all the company equipment

Problem with rebooting will likely be schedule delays, which means missed connections and a whole lot more.

While too early to tell, this may have an adverse impact on the quarter depending on DBC (denied boarding compensation) and such.  It will be interesting to study the aftermath..


Passings:  The American Vacation

Good A.P. read over here on the passing of the American Vacation.

While we try to take time off or at least travel, I figure there’s a correlation between people take less vacation time and people (like us) working well into retirement.


So Much for Monday

If you need an Olympics fix or a dash of Kardashian, seek counseling.

Consider working on your own future (and monetization) instead of buying that of others.

This is a fine morning for a nap. 


The Assault on S&P 2,200 — 18 Comments

  1. All murkans are brainwashed. Purdy much across the board.

    You have to drop out.

  2. George, I think you should take note. The “Polls” which you refer too are contrived by the same biased people behind the Lame Stream Media. When polls show Hil and Don in a dead heat that is BS.

    • Seriously? No need for that – those that believe in the achieving of enlightenment through denial and simply fooling themselves. To pierce the illusion in any conditions brings along all conditions.

  3. I noticed a forum posting where I am a member, from our resident astrologer. He says the stars are set to relate on Sept 1 in such a way that something astounding can be expected. This is interesting info but not especially useful, except it might be a good day to stay home, unless you live in a seismic zone.

    • If an astrologer doesn’t know the difference stars vs. planets I’d be careful with his promulgation. ;-)

  4. The biggest reason to not take a vacation is fear of losing your job or being replaced, I noticed they left that one off their list!!!

    • Kinda true. However, as we age, our peers take fewer family vacations because the kids get older and don’t want to do it. I have friends at church who take plenty of family vacations. I have other friends at work who also have taken many vacations.

      Family vacations are expensive. The best way to do vacationing is through group-travel. Bus tours, group get aways, etc. Groups of peers (kids or adults) can do a nice trip for cheap. Even to Europe with the dollar strong against the Euro.

      I hope to get to Europe finally next year.

      Those who are fearing losing their jobs aren’t working hard enough to become “the most important person in the company”. Work like you want to become the president of the company – and also vacation like it. They will appreciate you are living a life that is not JUST WORK. I have co-workers at companies I serve who are not from the USA but are here in the USA from their outsourcer company. They rarely stop working. 12-16 hour days. And the only time away from work is for training. THeir pay is roughly half of mine. I feel that their management at these outsourcing companies use threats against them to make them work the kind of hours they do. Thanks to those companies here who hire these “nearly slave labor” IT outsourcing companies for their lifestyles.

  5. I hope Hillary doesn’t collapse and they bring in a stronger candidate. Trumps got to be conflicted over how much to pressure her during the debates. If she falls out or has some kind of brain spasm then she could be replaced.

    • latest is she has parkinsons and is on blood thinners and should not fly or be exposed to stressful situations…..

  6. I see gold and sliver as a tool in rebuilding and one that may take some time to be useful to be needed. So buy and hide it and wait.
    Before that buy supplies for that long, long very long wait.

    • Precious metals are eternal, everything else either rots away or suffers from entropy. Banks are still marking to model, the delusion continues.

  7. Bhil will collapse, Bernie will step in and save the day. Bernie’s our next president. Remember, you heard this first on urban survival.

  8. Hi George,

    I trust you’re relaxing after lots of driving. I do hope the eyes are continuing to heal. Did you ever make that side trip to Santa Fe that you alluded to in Peoplenomics a few weeks ago? If so, at least one subscriber would be most interested. I could use the product and maybe the investment too.

  9. “get gold, guns, grub, and don’t be under the sky because it is falling…”

    Nope not yet… LOL gold.. how many ways can you use gold in soup.. silver a little more value but you still can’t eat it and as long as the world values those over grain… and goods.. they will maintain their value.. but if there is a major drought all the devastating depressions revolved around a major weather change and the lack of crops to feed the population…., along with this very scary game the fed reserve is playing right now.. the only true thing that will be affected is a number on a piece of paper or an electronic number on a computer screen.. of course that is just my opinion.. I remember back in seventy six when someone told me I should borrow all the money they would loan me because inflation would cheapen that money borrowed so that they were actually giving it to me.. that in a way is true.. that is what I see them doing today.. print more money so that the inflation of the future to pay for our extravagance today..the big problem is our extravagance as a nation doesn’t have a thing to do with our country but the increase of revenue of the wealthiest one percent.
    From the changes made from some of the bills that the GOP has gotten passed lately the ones tossed under the bus is everyone.. similar to the millionaire relief act of 78 that tossed the middle class under the bus..
    My earliest prediction is next spring.. at some point there has to be a time when they will have to raise interest rates.. I am betting they are pouring water on the table to push that noodle as far as they can into the next administration so that person can adopt this mess..for young women with families.. that don’t have silver and gold to trade for groceries the price is a whole lot different..
    what can we do.. absolutely nothing vote our any incumbents so that we get new blood that hasn’t been boughten or influenced by lobbyists. maybe I think it is to late our path has been plotted and we are on some countries that had a similar path to ours a loaf of bread is ten million dollars.. just saying.. when it does fall it will be ugly..

    • Same with the women in Tibet, even now, with the Chinese takeover. Yes, you are correct, the takedown of America from when the (non) Federal Reserve act was passed, and the income tax, NGO, IRS, was passed soon after – set the stage until now and has been predictable. America has been for sale and piecemealed out. One must research and comprehend who has been behind every war going back centuries and one must understand what baited America into killing each other in the Civil War and one must educate themselves on who the carpet baggers were, then you will comprehend a plan to protect yourselves and those you love.